Successful technical trading agents using genetic programming.

Genetic programming (GP) has proved to be a highly versatile and useful tool for identifying relationships in data for which a more precise theoretical construct is unavailable. In this project, we use a GP search to develop trading strategies for agent based economic models. These strategies use stock prices and technical indicators, such as the moving average convergence/divergence and various exponentially weighted moving averages, to generate buy and sell signals. We analyze the effect of complexity constraints on the strategies as well as the relative performance of various indicators. We also present innovations in the classical genetic programming algorithm that appear to improve convergence for this problem. Technical strategies developed by our GP algorithm can be used to control the behavior of agents in economic simulation packages, such as ASPEN-D, adding variety to the current market fundamentals approach. The exploitation of arbitrage opportunities by technical analysts may help increase the efficiency of the simulated stock market, as it does in the real world. By improving the behavior of simulated stock markets, we can better estimate the effects of shocks to the economy due to terrorism or natural disasters

Inherent limits of light-level geolocation may lead to over-interpretation

In their 2015 Current Biology paper, Streby et al. [1] reported that Golden-winged Warblers (Vermivora chrysoptera), which had just migrated to their breeding location in eastern Tennessee, performed a facultative and up to “>1,500 km roundtrip” to the Gulf of Mexico to avoid a severe tornadic storm. From light-level geolocator data, wherein geographical locations are estimated via the timing of sunrise and sunset, Streby et al. [1] concluded that the warblers had evacuated their breeding area approximately 24 hours before the storm and returned about five days later. The authors presented this finding as evidence that migratory birds avoid severe storms by temporarily moving long-distances. However, the tracking method employed by Streby et al. [1] is prone to considerable error and uncertainty. Here, we argue that this interpretation of the data oversteps the limits of the used tracking technique. By calculating the expected geographical error range for the tracked birds, we demonstrate that the hypothesized movements fell well within the geolocators’ inherent error range for this species and that such deviations in latitude occur frequently even if individuals remain stationary

The grand challenges of migration ecology that radar aeroecology can help answer

Many migratory species have experienced substantial declines that resulted from rapid and massive expansions of human structures and activities, habitat alterations and climate change. Migrants are also recognized as an integral component of biodiversity and provide a multitude of services and disservices that are relevant to human agriculture, economy and health. The plethora of recently published studies reflects the need for better fundamental knowledge on migrations and for better management of their ecological and human‐relevant effects. Yet, where are we in providing answers to fundamental questions and societal challenges? Engaging a broad network of researchers worldwide, we used a horizon‐scan approach to identify the most important challenges which need to be overcome in order to gain a fuller understanding of migration ecology, and which could be addressed using radar aeroecological and macroecological approaches. The top challenges include both long‐standing and novel topics, ranging from fundamental information on migration routes and phenology, orientation and navigation strategies, and the multitude of effects migrants may have on resident communities, to societal challenges, such as protecting or preventing migrant services and disservices, and the conservation of migrants in the face of environmental changes. We outline these challenges, identify the urgency of addressing them and the primary stakeholders – researchers, policy makers and practitioners, or funders of research.

Optimal learning on climate change: Why climate skeptics should reduce emissions

Climate skeptics typically argue that the possibility that global warming is exogenous, implies that we should not take additional action towards reducing emissions until we know what drives warming. This paper however shows that even climate skeptics have an incentive to reduce emissions: such a directional change generates information on the causes of global warming. Since the optimal policy depends upon these causes, they are valuable to know. Although increasing emissions would also generate information, that option is inferior due its irreversibility. We show that optimality can even imply that climate skeptics should actually argue for lower emissions than believers

Innovative visualizations shed light on avian nocturnal migration

Globally, billions of flying animals undergo seasonal migrations, many of which occur at night. The temporal and spatial scales at which migrations occur and our inability to directly observe these nocturnal movements makes monitoring and characterizing this critical period in migratory animals’ life cycles difficult. Remote sensing, therefore, has played an important role in our understanding of large-scale nocturnal bird migrations. Weather surveillance radar networks in Europe and North America have great potential for long-term low-cost monitoring of bird migration at scales that have previously been impossible to achieve. Such long-term monitoring, however, poses a number of challenges for the ornithological and ecological communities: how does one take advantage of this vast data resource, integrate information across multiple sensors and large spatial and temporal scales, and visually represent the data for interpretation and dissemination, considering the dynamic nature of migration? We assembled an interdisciplinary team of ecologists, meteorologists, computer scientists, and graphic designers to develop two different flow visualizations, which are interactive and open source, in order to create novel representations of broad-front nocturnal bird migration to address a primary impediment to long-term, largescalenocturnal migration monitoring. We have applied these visualization techniques to mass bird migration events recorded by two different weather surveillance radar networks covering regions in Europe and North America. These applications show the flexibility and portability of such an approach. The visualizations provide an intuitive representation of thescale and dynamics of these complex systems, are easily accessible for a broad interest group, and are biologically insightful. Additionally, they facilitate fundamental ecological research, conservation, mitigation of human–wildlife conflicts, improvement of meteorological products, and public outreach, education, and engagement

Syphilis at the Crossroad of Phylogenetics and Paleopathology

The origin of syphilis is still controversial. Different research avenues explore its fascinating history. Here we employed a new integrative approach, where paleopathology and molecular analyses are combined. As an exercise to test the validity of this approach we examined different hypotheses on the origin of syphilis and other human diseases caused by treponemes (treponematoses). Initially, we constructed a worldwide map containing all accessible reports on palaeopathological evidences of treponematoses before Columbus's return to Europe. Then, we selected the oldest ones to calibrate the time of the most recent common ancestor of Treponema pallidum subsp. pallidum, T. pallidum subsp. endemicum and T. pallidum subsp. pertenue in phylogenetic analyses with 21 genetic regions of different T. pallidum strains previously reported. Finally, we estimated the treponemes' evolutionary rate to test three scenarios: A) if treponematoses accompanied human evolution since Homo erectus; B) if venereal syphilis arose very recently from less virulent strains caught in the New World about 500 years ago, and C) if it emerged in the Americas between 16,500 and 5,000 years ago. Two of the resulting evolutionary rates were unlikely and do not explain the existent osseous evidence. Thus, treponematoses, as we know them today, did not emerge with H. erectus, nor did venereal syphilis appear only five centuries ago. However, considering 16,500 years before present (yBP) as the time of the first colonization of the Americas, and approximately 5,000 yBP as the oldest probable evidence of venereal syphilis in the world, we could not entirely reject hypothesis C. We confirm that syphilis seems to have emerged in this time span, since the resulting evolutionary rate is compatible with those observed in other bacteria. In contrast, if the claims of precolumbian venereal syphilis outside the Americas are taken into account, the place of origin remains unsolved. Finally, the endeavor of joining paleopathology and phylogenetics proved to be a fruitful and promising approach for the study of infectious diseases

Exploring the musical taste of expert listeners: musicology students reveal tendency toward omnivorous taste

Musicology students are engaged with music on an academic level and usually have an extensive musical background. They have a considerable knowledge of music history and theory and listening to music may be regarded as one of their primary occupations. Taken together, these factors qualify them as ≫expert listeners≪, who may be expected to exhibit a specific profile of musical taste: interest in a broad range of musical styles combined with a greater appreciation of ≫sophisticated≪ styles. The current study examined the musical taste of musicology students as compared to a control student group. Participants (n = 1003) completed an online survey regarding the frequency with which they listened to 22 musical styles. A factor analysis revealed six underlying dimensions of musical taste. A hierarchical cluster analysis then grouped all participants, regardless of their status, according to their similarity on these dimensions. The employed exploratory approach was expected to reveal potential differences between musicology students and controls. A three-cluster solution was obtained. Comparisons of the clusters in terms of musical taste revealed differences in the listening frequency and variety of appreciated music styles: the first cluster (51% musicology students/27% controls) showed the greatest musical engagement across all dimensions although with a tendency toward ≫sophisticated≪ musical styles. The second cluster (36% musicology students/46% controls) exhibited an interest in ≫conventional≪ music, while the third cluster (13% musicology students/27% controls) showed a strong liking of rock music. The results provide some support for the notion of specific tendencies in the musical taste of musicology students and the contribution of familiarity and knowledge toward musical omnivorousness. Further differences between the clusters in terms of social, personality, and sociodemographic factors are discussed

Presbyopia:Effectiveness of correction strategies

Presbyopia is a global problem affecting over a billion people worldwide. The prevalence of unmanaged presbyopia is as high as 50% of those over 50 years of age in developing world populations due to a lack of awareness and accessibility to affordable treatment, and is even as high as 34% in developed countries. Definitions of presbyopia are inconsistent and varied, so we propose a redefinition that states “presbyopia occurs when the physiologically normal age-related reduction in the eye's focusing range reaches a point, when optimally corrected for distance vision, that the clarity of vision at near is insufficient to satisfy an individual's requirements”. Presbyopia is inevitable if one lives long enough, but intrinsic and extrinsic risk factors including cigarette smoking, pregnancy history, hyperopic or astigmatic refractive error, ultraviolet radiation, female sex (although accommodation is similar to males), hotter climates and some medical conditions such as diabetes can accelerate the onset of presbyopic symptoms. Whilst clinicians can ameliorate the symptoms of presbyopia with near vision spectacle correction, bifocal and progressive spectacle lenses, monovision, translating or multifocal contact lenses, monovision, extended depth of focus, multifocal (refractive, diffractive and asymmetric designs) or ‘accommodating’ intraocular lenses, corneal inlays, scleral expansion, laser refractive surgery (corneal monovision, corneal shrinkage, corneal multifocal profiles and lenticular softening), pharmacologic agents, and electro-stimulation of the ciliary muscle, none fully overcome presbyopia in all patients. While the restoration of natural accommodation or an equivalent remains elusive, guidance is gives on presbyopic correction evaluation techniques

Innovative Visualizations Shed Light on Avian Nocturnal Migration

We acknowledge the support provided by COST–European Cooperation in Science and Technology through the Action ES1305 ‘European Network for the Radar Surveillance of Animal Movement’ (ENRAM) in facilitating this collaboration. We thank ENRAM members and researchers attending the EOU round table discussion ‘Radar aeroecology: unravelling population scale patterns of avian movement’ for feedback on the visualizations. We thank Arie Dekker for his feedback as jury member of the bird migration visualization challenge & hackathon hosted at the University of Amsterdam, 25–27 March 2015. We thank Willem Bouten and Kevin Winner for discussion of methodological design. We thank Kevin Webb and Jed Irvine for assistance with downloading, managing, and reviewing US radar data. We thank the Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium for providing weather radar data.Globally, billions of flying animals undergo seasonal migrations, many of which occur at night. The temporal and spatial scales at which migrations occur and our inability to directly observe these nocturnal movements makes monitoring and characterizing this critical period in migratory animals’ life cycles difficult. Remote sensing, therefore, has played an important role in our understanding of large-scale nocturnal bird migrations. Weather surveillance radar networks in Europe and North America have great potential for long-term low-cost monitoring of bird migration at scales that have previously been impossible to achieve. Such long-term monitoring, however, poses a number of challenges for the ornithological and ecological communities: how does one take advantage of this vast data resource, integrate information across multiple sensors and large spatial and temporal scales, and visually represent the data for interpretation and dissemination, considering the dynamic nature of migration? We assembled an interdisciplinary team of ecologists, meteorologists, computer scientists, and graphic designers to develop two different flow visualizations, which are interactive and open source, in order to create novel representations of broad-front nocturnal bird migration to address a primary impediment to long-term, large-scale nocturnal migration monitoring. We have applied these visualization techniques to mass bird migration events recorded by two different weather surveillance radar networks covering regions in Europe and North America. These applications show the flexibility and portability of such an approach. The visualizations provide an intuitive representation of the scale and dynamics of these complex systems, are easily accessible for a broad interest group, and are biologically insightful. Additionally, they facilitate fundamental ecological research, conservation, mitigation of human–wildlife conflicts, improvement of meteorological products, and public outreach, education, and engagement.Yeshttp://www.plosone.org/static/editorial#pee