The National CKD Audit: a primary care condition that deserves more attention.

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a common condition, with an estimated prevalence in the UK of around 5–7%, and a GP recorded prevalence in the England Quality and Outcomes Framework (QOF) in 2017 of 4.1%,3 which is higher than the prevalence of coronary heart disease. The majority of people with CKD are detected and managed in primary care rather than by kidney specialists. Early identification in primary care, particularly among populations with risk factors such as diabetes and hypertension, enables appropriate management of blood pressure, cardiovascular risk and lifestyle factors. There is evidence that progression of CKD can be delayed by such interventions, and that implementation of these interventions can be improved by use of quality improvement tools in primary care. However CKD as a long-term condition has not had an easy ride. Since its definition in 2002 there have been concerns about overdiagnosis, described as ‘when people without symptoms are diagnosed with a disease that ultimately will not cause them symptoms or early death’, and anxieties about the disclosure of early-stage CKD to patients, along with the work of reassurance and increased monitoring that this might entail. This debate within general practice has left some practitioners uncertain about the importance of naming, coding and managing CKD in primary care

Flame retardants in UK furniture increase smoke toxicity more than they reduce fire growth rate

This paper uses fire statistics to show the importance of fire toxicity on fire deaths and injuries, and the importance of upholstered furniture and bedding on fatalities from unwanted fires. The aim was to compare the fire hazards (fire growth and smoke toxicity) using different upholstery materials. Four compositions of sofa-bed were compared: three meeting UK Furniture Flammability Regulations (FFR), and one using materials without flame retardants intended for the mainland European market. Two of the UK sofa-beds relied on chemical flame retardants to meet the FFR, the third used natural materials and a technical weave in order to pass the test. Each composition was tested in the bench-scale cone calorimeter (ISO 5660) and burnt as a whole sofa-bed in a sofa configuration in a 3.4 × 2.25 × 2.4 m3 test room. All of the sofas were ignited with a No. 7 wood crib; the temperatures and yields of toxic products are reported. The sofa-beds containing flame retardants burnt somewhat more slowly than the non-flame retarded EU sofa-bed, but in doing so produced significantly greater quantities of the main fire toxicants, carbon monoxide and hydrogen cyanide. Assessment of the effluents' potential to incapacitate and kill is provided showing the two UK flame retardant sofa-beds to be the most dangerous, followed by the sofa-bed made with European materials. The UK sofa-bed made only from natural materials (Cottonsafe®) burnt very slowly and produced very low concentrations of toxic gases. Including fire toxicity in the FFR would reduce the chemical flame retardants and improve fire safety. [Abstract copyright: Crown Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Fire behaviour of modern façade materials – Understanding the Grenfell Tower fire

The 2017 Grenfell Tower fire spread rapidly around the combustible façade system on the outside of the building, killing 72 people. We used a range of micro- and bench-scale methods to understand the fire behaviour of different types of façade product, including those used on the Tower, in order to explain the speed, ferocity and lethality of the fire. Compared to the least flammable panels, polyethylene-aluminium composites showed 55x greater peak heat release rates (pHRR) and 70x greater total heat release (THR), while widely-used high-pressure laminate panels showed 25x greater pHRR and 115x greater THR. Compared to the least combustible insulation products, polyisocyanurate foam showed 16x greater pHRR and 35x greater THR, while phenolic foam showed 9x greater pHRR and 48x greater THR. A few burning drips of polyethylene from the panelling are enough to ignite the foam insulation, providing a novel explanation for rapid flame-spread within the facade. Smoke from polyisocyanurates was 15x, and phenolics 5x more toxic than from mineral wool insulation. 1kg of burning polyisocyanurate insulation is sufficient to fill a 50m3 room with an incapacitating and ultimately lethal effluent. Simple, additive models are proposed, which provide the same rank order as BS8414 large-scale regulatory tests

Accounting for overdispersion when determining primary care outliers for the identification of chronic kidney disease: learning from the National Chronic Kidney Disease Audit.

Background: Early diagnosis of chronic kidney disease (CKD) facilitates best management in primary care. Testing coverage of those at risk and translation into subsequent diagnostic coding will impact on observed CKD prevalence. Using initial data from 915 general practitioner (GP) practices taking part in a UK national audit, we seek to apply appropriate methods to identify outlying practices in terms of CKD stages 3-5 prevalence and diagnostic coding. Methods: We estimate expected numbers of CKD stages 3-5 cases in each practice, adjusted for key practice characteristics, and further inflate the control limits to account for overdispersion related to unobserved factors (including unobserved risk factors for CKD, and between-practice differences in coding and testing). Results: GP practice prevalence of coded CKD stages 3-5 ranges from 0.04 to 7.8%. Practices differ considerably in coding of CKD in individuals where CKD is indicated following testing (ranging from 0 to 97% of those with and glomerular filtration rate  <60 mL/min/1.73 m 2 ). After adjusting for risk factors and overdispersion, the number of  'extreme' practices is reduced from 29 to 2.6% for the low-coded CKD prevalence outcome, from 21 to 1% for high-uncoded CKD stage and from 22 to 2.4% for low total (coded and uncoded) CKD prevalence. Thirty-one practices are identified as outliers for at least one of these outcomes. These can then be categorized into practices needing to address testing, coding or data storage/transfer issues. Conclusions: GP practice prevalence of coded CKD shows wide variation. Accounting for overdispersion is crucial in providing useful information about outlying practices for CKD prevalence

Wolves in the Wolds: Late Capitalism, the English Eerie, and the Wyrd Case of ‘Old Stinker’ the Hull Werewolf

In this article, I depart from the earlier opinions of Emily Gerard, Sabine Baring-Gould, and others, who explained the disappearance of the werewolf in folklore as following the extinction of the wolf. I argue instead that British literature is distinctive in representing a history of werewolf sightings in places in Britain where there were once wolves. I draw on the idea of absence, manifestations of the English eerie, and the turbulence of England in the era of late capitalism to illuminate my analysis of the representation of contemporary werewolf sightingsPeer reviewe

Mortality and pulmonary complications in patients undergoing surgery with perioperative SARS-CoV-2 infection: an international cohort study

Background: The impact of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) on postoperative recovery needs to be understood to inform clinical decision making during and after the COVID-19 pandemic. This study reports 30-day mortality and pulmonary complication rates in patients with perioperative SARS-CoV-2 infection. Methods: This international, multicentre, cohort study at 235 hospitals in 24 countries included all patients undergoing surgery who had SARS-CoV-2 infection confirmed within 7 days before or 30 days after surgery. The primary outcome measure was 30-day postoperative mortality and was assessed in all enrolled patients. The main secondary outcome measure was pulmonary complications, defined as pneumonia, acute respiratory distress syndrome, or unexpected postoperative ventilation. Findings: This analysis includes 1128 patients who had surgery between Jan 1 and March 31, 2020, of whom 835 (74·0%) had emergency surgery and 280 (24·8%) had elective surgery. SARS-CoV-2 infection was confirmed preoperatively in 294 (26·1%) patients. 30-day mortality was 23·8% (268 of 1128). Pulmonary complications occurred in 577 (51·2%) of 1128 patients; 30-day mortality in these patients was 38·0% (219 of 577), accounting for 81·7% (219 of 268) of all deaths. In adjusted analyses, 30-day mortality was associated with male sex (odds ratio 1·75 [95% CI 1·28–2·40], p\textless0·0001), age 70 years or older versus younger than 70 years (2·30 [1·65–3·22], p\textless0·0001), American Society of Anesthesiologists grades 3–5 versus grades 1–2 (2·35 [1·57–3·53], p\textless0·0001), malignant versus benign or obstetric diagnosis (1·55 [1·01–2·39], p=0·046), emergency versus elective surgery (1·67 [1·06–2·63], p=0·026), and major versus minor surgery (1·52 [1·01–2·31], p=0·047). Interpretation: Postoperative pulmonary complications occur in half of patients with perioperative SARS-CoV-2 infection and are associated with high mortality. Thresholds for surgery during the COVID-19 pandemic should be higher than during normal practice, particularly in men aged 70 years and older. Consideration should be given for postponing non-urgent procedures and promoting non-operative treatment to delay or avoid the need for surgery. Funding: National Institute for Health Research (NIHR), Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland, Bowel and Cancer Research, Bowel Disease Research Foundation, Association of Upper Gastrointestinal Surgeons, British Association of Surgical Oncology, British Gynaecological Cancer Society, European Society of Coloproctology, NIHR Academy, Sarcoma UK, Vascular Society for Great Britain and Ireland, and Yorkshire Cancer Research