Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

SummaryBackground The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors—the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6–58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8–42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

A novel biweekly pancreatic cancer treatment schedule with gemcitabine, 5-fluorouracil and folinic acid

Pancreatic adenocarcinoma is a common disease considered to be poorly responsive to antiblastic treatment. Recent clinical and preclinical results suggest that a combined treatment of gemcitabine (GEM), 5-flurouracil (5-FU) and folinic acid (FA) offers a clinical benefit in patients with advanced pancreas adenocarcinoma. The aim of this phase II clinical trial was to evaluate the antitumour activity and toxicity of a novel biweekly schedule of this combination in patients with pancreatic adenocarcinoma. A total of 42 patients received a 30 min infusion of FA (100 mgm2) and 5-FU (400 mgm2) (FUFA) on days 1–3, and GEM 1000 mgm2 on day 1 every 15 days. We observed 13 objective responses (two complete, 11 partial) and 23 stable diseases. The median time to progression was 9.75 months (95% Confidence Interval (CI), 6.88–12.62) and the median overall survival was 13.10 months (95% CI 9.64–16.56). There were seven cases of each grade III gastroenteric and haematological toxicity. The GEM plus FUFA combination appears to be well tolerated and very active in patients with pancreatic carcinoma

Tubulin-binding dibenz[c,e]oxepines: Part 2 Structural variation and biological evaluation as tumour vasculature disrupting agents

5,7-Dihydro-3,9,10,11-tetramethoxybenz[c,e]oxepin-4-ol 1, prepared from a dibenzyl ether precursor via Pd-catalysed intramolecular direct arylation, possesses broad-spectrum in vitro cytotoxicity towards various tumour cell lines, and induces vascular shutdown, necrosis and growth delay in tumour xenografts in mice at sub-toxic doses. The biological properties of 1 and related compounds can be attributed to their ability to inhibit microtubule assembly at the micromolar level, by binding reversibly to the same site of the tubulin αβ-heterodimer as colchicine 2 and the allocolchinol, N-acetylcolchinol 4

Animal models of cardiorenal syndrome: a review

The incidence of heart failure and renal failure is increasing and is associated with poor prognosis. Moreover, these conditions do often coexist and this coexistence results in worsened outcome. Various mechanisms have been proposed as an explanation of this interrelation, including changes in hemodynamics, endothelial dysfunction, inflammation, activation of renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system, and/or sympathetic nervous system. However, the exact mechanisms initializing and maintaining this interaction are still unknown. In many experimental studies on cardiac or renal dysfunction, the function of the other organ was either not addressed or the authors failed to show any decline in its function despite histological changes. There are few studies in which the dysfunction of both heart and kidney function has been described. In this review, we discuss animal models of combined cardiorenal dysfunction. We show that translation of the results from animal studies is limited, and there is a need for new and better models of the cardiorenal interaction to improve our understanding of this syndrome. Finally, we propose several requirements that a new animal model should meet to serve as a tool for studies on the cardiorenal syndrome

Investigation of the Enteric Pathogenic Potential of Oral Campylobacter concisus Strains Isolated from Patients with Inflammatory Bowel Disease

BACKGROUND: Campylobacter concisus, a bacterium colonizing the human oral cavity, has been shown to be associated with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). This study investigated if patients with IBD are colonized with specific oral C. concisus strains that have potential to cause enteric diseases. METHODOLOGY: Seventy oral and enteric C. concisus isolates obtained from eight patients with IBD and six controls were examined for housekeeping genes by multilocus sequence typing (MLST), Caco2 cell invasion by gentamicin-protection-assay, protein analysis by mass spectrometry and SDS-PAGE, and morphology by scanning electron microscopy. The whole genome sequenced C. concisus strain 13826 which was isolated from an individual with bloody diarrhea was included in MLST analysis. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: MLST analysis showed that 87.5% of individuals whose C. concisus belonged to Cluster I had inflammatory enteric diseases (six IBD and one with bloody diarrhea), which was significantly higher than that in the remaining individuals (28.6%) (P<0.05). Enteric invasive C. concisus (EICC) oral strain was detected in 50% of patients with IBD and none of the controls. All EICC strains were in Cluster 1. The C. concisus strain colonizing intestinal tissues of patient No. 1 was closely related to the oral C. concisus strain from patient No. 6 and had gene recombination with the patient's own oral C. concisus. The oral and intestinal C. concisus strains of patient No. 3 were the same strain. Some individuals were colonized with multiple oral C. concisus strains that have undergone natural recombination. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides the first evidence that patients with IBD are colonized with specific oral C. concisus strains, with some being EICC strains. C. concisus colonizing intestinal tissues of patients with IBD at least in some instances results from an endogenous colonization of the patient's oral C. concisus and that C. concisus strains undergo natural recombination

Increased cardiovascular risk in rats with primary renal dysfunction; mediating role for vascular endothelial function

Primary chronic kidney disease is associated with high cardiovascular risk. However, the exact mechanisms behind this cardiorenal interaction remain unclear. We investigated the interaction between heart and kidneys in novel animal model for cardiorenal interaction. Normal Wistar rats and Munich Wistar Fromter rats, spontaneously developing renal dysfunction, were subjected to experimental myocardial infarction to induce cardiac dysfunction (CD) and combined cardiorenal dysfunction (CRD), respectively (N = 5–10). Twelve weeks later, cardiac- and renal parameters were evaluated. Cardiac, but not renal dysfunction was exaggerated in CRD. Accelerated cardiac dysfunction in CRD was indicated by decreased cardiac output (CD 109 ± 10 vs. CRD 79 ± 8 ml/min), diastolic dysfunction (E/e′) (CD 26 ± 2 vs. CRD 50 ± 5) and left ventricular overload (LVEDP CD 10.8 ± 2.8 vs. CRD 21.6 ± 1.7 mmHg). Congestion in CRD was confirmed by increased lung and atrial weights, as well as exaggerated right ventricular hypertrophy. Absence of accelerated renal dysfunction, measured by increased proteinuria, was supported by absence of additional focal glomerulosclerosis or further decline of renal blood flow in CRD. Only advanced peripheral endothelial dysfunction, as found in CRD, appeared to correlate with both renal and cardiac dysfunction parameters. Thus, proteinuric rats with myocardial infarction showed accelerated cardiac but not renal dysfunction. As parameters mimic the cardiorenal syndrome, these rats may provide a clinically relevant model to study increased cardiovascular risk due to renal dysfunction. Peripheral endothelial dysfunction was the only parameter that correlated with both renal and cardiac dysfunction, which may indicate a mediating role in cardiorenal interaction

Amyloid imaging in the differential diagnosis of dementia: review and potential clinical applications

In the past decade, positron emission tomography (PET) with carbon-11-labeled Pittsburgh Compound B (PIB) has revolutionized the neuroimaging of aging and dementia by enabling in vivo detection of amyloid plaques, a core pathologic feature of Alzheimer's disease (AD). Studies suggest that PIB-PET is sensitive for AD pathology, can distinguish AD from non-AD dementia (for example, frontotemporal lobar degeneration), and can help determine whether mild cognitive impairment is due to AD. Although the short half-life of the carbon-11 radiolabel has thus far limited the use of PIB to research, a second generation of tracers labeled with fluorine-18 has made it possible for amyloid PET to enter the clinical era. In the present review, we summarize the literature on amyloid imaging in a range of neurodegenerative conditions. We focus on potential clinical applications of amyloid PET and its role in the differential diagnosis of dementia. We suggest that amyloid imaging will be particularly useful in the evaluation of mildly affected, clinically atypical or early age-at-onset patients, and illustrate this with case vignettes from our practice. We emphasize that amyloid imaging should supplement (not replace) a detailed clinical evaluation. We caution against screening asymptomatic individuals, and discuss the limited positive predictive value in older populations. Finally, we review limitations and unresolved questions related to this exciting new technique

Smoking prevalence and attributable disease burden in 195 countries and territories, 1990-2015 : a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Background The scale-up of tobacco control, especially after the adoption of the Framework Convention for Tobacco Control, is a major public health success story. Nonetheless, smoking remains a leading risk for early death and disability worldwide, and therefore continues to require sustained political commitment. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) offers a robust platform through which global, regional, and national progress toward achieving smoking-related targets can be assessed. Methods We synthesised 2818 data sources with spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and produced estimates of daily smoking prevalence by sex, age group, and year for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. We analysed 38 risk-outcome pairs to generate estimates of smoking-attributable mortality and disease burden, as measured by disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). We then performed a cohort analysis of smoking prevalence by birth-year cohort to better understand temporal age patterns in smoking. We also did a decomposition analysis, in which we parsed out changes in all-cause smoking-attributable DALYs due to changes in population growth, population ageing, smoking prevalence, and risk-deleted DALY rates. Finally, we explored results by level of development using the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings Worldwide, the age-standardised prevalence of daily smoking was 25.0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 24.2-25.7) for men and 5.4% (5.1-5.7) for women, representing 28.4% (25.8-31.1) and 34.4% (29.4-38.6) reductions, respectively, since 1990. A greater percentage of countries and territories achieved significant annualised rates of decline in smoking prevalence from 1990 to 2005 than in between 2005 and 2015; however, only four countries had significant annualised increases in smoking prevalence between 2005 and 2015 (Congo [Brazzaville] and Azerbaijan for men and Kuwait and Timor-Leste for women). In 2015, 11.5% of global deaths (6.4 million [95% UI 5.7-7.0 million]) were attributable to smoking worldwide, of which 52.2% took place in four countries (China, India, the USA, and Russia). Smoking was ranked among the five leading risk factors by DALYs in 109 countries and territories in 2015, rising from 88 geographies in 1990. In terms of birth cohorts, male smoking prevalence followed similar age patterns across levels of SDI, whereas much more heterogeneity was found in age patterns for female smokers by level of development. While smoking prevalence and risk-deleted DALY rates mostly decreased by sex and SDI quintile, population growth, population ageing, or a combination of both, drove rises in overall smoking-attributable DALYs in low-SDI to middle-SDI geographies between 2005 and 2015. Interpretation The pace of progress in reducing smoking prevalence has been heterogeneous across geographies, development status, and sex, and as highlighted by more recent trends, maintaining past rates of decline should not be taken for granted, especially in women and in low-SDI to middle-SDI countries. Beyond the effect of the tobacco industry and societal mores, a crucial challenge facing tobacco control initiatives is that demographic forces are poised to heighten smoking's global toll, unless progress in preventing initiation and promoting cessation can be substantially accelerated. Greater success in tobacco control is possible but requires effective, comprehensive, and adequately implemented and enforced policies, which might in turn require global and national levels of political commitment beyond what has been achieved during the past 25 years.Peer reviewe