336 research outputs found

    GCIP water and energy budget synthesis (WEBS)

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    As part of the World Climate Research Program\u27s (WCRPs) Global Energy and Water-Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) Continental-scale International Project (GCIP), a preliminary water and energy budget synthesis (WEBS) was developed for the period 1996–1999 from the “best available” observations and models. Besides this summary paper, a companion CD-ROM with more extensive discussion, figures, tables, and raw data is available to the interested researcher from the GEWEX project office, the GAPP project office, or the first author. An updated online version of the CD-ROM is also available at http://ecpc.ucsd.edu/gcip/webs.htm/. Observations cannot adequately characterize or “close” budgets since too many fundamental processes are missing. Models that properly represent the many complicated atmospheric and near-surface interactions are also required. This preliminary synthesis therefore included a representative global general circulation model, regional climate model, and a macroscale hydrologic model as well as a global reanalysis and a regional analysis. By the qualitative agreement among the models and available observations, it did appear that we now qualitatively understand water and energy budgets of the Mississippi River Basin. However, there is still much quantitative uncertainty. In that regard, there did appear to be a clear advantage to using a regional analysis over a global analysis or a regional simulation over a global simulation to describe the Mississippi River Basin water and energy budgets. There also appeared to be some advantage to using a macroscale hydrologic model for at least the surface water budgets

    Simulations of the 2004 North American Monsoon: NAMAP2

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    The second phase of the North American Monsoon Experiment (NAME) Model Assessment Project (NAMAP2) was carried out to provide a coordinated set of simulations from global and regional models of the 2004 warm season across the North American monsoon domain. This project follows an earlier assessment, called NAMAP, that preceded the 2004 field season of the North American Monsoon Experiment. Six global and four regional models are all forced with prescribed, time-varying ocean surface temperatures. Metrics for model simulation of warm season precipitation processes developed in NAMAP are examined that pertain to the seasonal progression and diurnal cycle of precipitation, monsoon onset, surface turbulent fluxes, and simulation of the low-level jet circulation over the Gulf of California. Assessment of the metrics is shown to be limited by continuing uncertainties in spatially averaged observations, demonstrating that modeling and observational analysis capabilities need to be developed concurrently. Simulations of the core subregion (CORE) of monsoonal precipitation in global models have improved since NAMAP, despite the lack of a proper low-level jet circulation in these simulations. Some regional models run at higher resolution still exhibit the tendency observed in NAMAP to overestimate precipitation in the CORE subregion; this is shown to involve both convective and resolved components of the total precipitation. The variability of precipitation in the Arizona/New Mexico (AZNM) subregion is simulated much better by the regional models compared with the global models, illustrating the importance of transient circulation anomalies (prescribed as lateral boundary conditions) for simulating precipitation in the northern part of the monsoon domain. This suggests that seasonal predictability derivable from lower boundary conditions may be limited in the AZNM subregion.open131

    Equatorial Pacific coral geochemical records show recent weakening of the Walker Circulation

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    Equatorial Pacific ocean-atmosphere interactions affect climate globally, and a key component of the coupled system is the Walker Circulation, which is driven by sea surface temperature (SST) gradients across the equatorial Pacific. There is conflicting evidence as to whether the SST gradient and Walker Circulation have strengthened or weakened over the late twentieth century. We present new records of SST and sea surface salinity (SSS) spanning 1959-2010 based on paired measurements of Sr/Ca and δ18O in a massive Porites coral from Butaritari atoll in the Gilbert Islands, Republic of Kiribati, in the central western equatorial Pacific. The records show 2-7 year variability correlated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and corresponding shifts in the extent of the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool, and decadal-scale signals related to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the Pacific Warm Pool Index. In addition, the Butaritari coral records reveal a small but significant increase in SST (0.39°C) from 1959 to 2010 with no accompanying change in SSS, a trend that persists even when ENSO variability is removed. In contrast, larger increases in SST and SSS are evident in coral records from the equatorial Pacific Line Islands, located east of Butaritari. Taken together, the equatorial Pacific coral records suggest an overall reduction in the east-west SST and SSS gradient over the last several decades, and a recent weakening of the Walker Circulation

    Effect of anthropogenic sulphate aerosol in China on the drought in the western-to-central US

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    In recent decades, droughts have occurred in the western-to-central United States (US), significantly affecting food production, water supplies, ecosystem health, and the propagation of vector-borne diseases. Previous studies have suggested natural sea surface temperature (SST) forcing in the Pacific as the main driver of precipitation deficits in the US. Here, we show that the aerosol forcing in China, which has been known to alter the regional hydrological cycle in East Asia, may also contribute to reducing the precipitation in the western-to-central US through atmospheric teleconnections across the Pacific. Our model experiments show some indications that both the SST forcing and the increase in regional sulphate forcing in China play a similar role in modulating the western-to-central US precipitation, especially its long-term variation. This result indicates that regional air quality regulations in China have important implications for hydrological cycles in East Asia, as well as in the USopen1

    Pacific climate variability and the possible impact on global surface CO2 flux

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    <p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Climate variability modifies both oceanic and terrestrial surface CO2 flux. Using observed/assimilated data sets, earlier studies have shown that tropical oceanic climate variability has strong impacts on the land surface temperature and soil moisture, and that there is a negative correlation between the oceanic and terrestrial CO2 fluxes. However, these data sets only cover less than the most recent 20 years and are insufficient for identifying decadal and longer periodic variabilities. To investigate possible impacts of interannual to interdecadal climate variability on CO2 flux exchange, the last 125 years of an earth system model (ESM) control run are examined.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Global integration of the terrestrial CO2 flux anomaly shows variation much greater in amplitude and longer in periodic timescale than the oceanic flux. The terrestrial CO2 flux anomaly correlates negatively with the oceanic flux in some periods, but positively in others, as the periodic timescale is different between the two variables. To determine the spatial pattern of the variability, a series of composite analyses are performed. The results show that the oceanic CO2 flux variability peaks when the eastern tropical Pacific has a large sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA). By contrast, the terrestrial CO2 flux variability peaks when the SSTA appears in the central tropical Pacific. The former pattern of variability resembles the ENSO-mode and the latter the ENSO-modoki<sup>1</sup>.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Our results imply that the oceanic and terrestrial CO2 flux anomalies may correlate either positively or negatively depending on the relative phase of these two modes in the tropical Pacific.</p

    Development of New Ensemble Methods Based on the Performance Skills of Regional Climate Models over South Korea

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    In this paper, the prediction skills of five ensemble methods for temperature and precipitation are discussed by considering 20 yr of simulation results (from 1989 to 2008) for four regional climate models (RCMs) driven by NCEP-Department of Energy and ECMWF Interim Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) boundary conditions. The simulation domain is the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) for East Asia. and the number of grid points is 197 x 233 with a 50-km horizontal resolution. Three new performance-based ensemble averaging (PEA) methods are developed in this study using 1) bias, root-mean-square errors (RMSEs) and absolute correlation (PEA_BRC). RMSE and absolute correlation (PEA RAC), and RMSE and original correlation (PEA_ROC). The other two ensemble methods are equal-weighted averaging (EWA) and multivariate linear regression (Mul_Reg). To derive the weighting coefficients and cross validate the prediction skills of the five ensemble methods. the authors considered 15-yr and 5-yr data, respectively, from the 20-yr simulation data. Among the five ensemble methods, the Mul_Reg (EWA) method shows the best (worst) skill during the training period. The PEA_RAC and PEA_ROC methods show skills that are similar to those of Mul_Reg during the training period. However, the skills and stabilities of Mul_Reg were drastically reduced when this method was applied to the prediction period. But, the skills and stabilities of PEA_RAC were only slightly reduced in this case. As a result. PEA RAC shows the best skill, irrespective of the seasons and variables, during the prediction period. This result confirms that the new ensemble method developed in this study. PEA_RAC. can be used for the prediction of regional climate.open7

    Impacts of Second-Generation Biofuel Feedstock Production in the Central U.S. on the Hydrologic Cycle and Global Warming Mitigation Potential

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    Biofuel feedstocks provide a renewable energy source that can reduce fossil fuel emissions; however, if produced on a large scale they can also impact local to regional water and carbon budgets. Simulation results for 2005–2014 from a regional weather model adapted to simulate the growth of two perennial grass biofuel feedstocks suggest that replacing at least half the current annual cropland with these grasses would increase water use efficiency and drive greater rainfall downwind of perturbed grid cells, but increased evapotranspiration (ET) might switch the Mississippi River basin from having a net warm-season surplus of water (precipitation minus ET) to a net deficit. While this scenario reduces land required for biofuel feedstock production relative to current use for maize grain ethanol production, it only offsets approximately one decade of projected anthropogenic warming and increased water vapor results in greater atmospheric heat content

    The impact of neogene grassland expansion and aridification on the isotopic composition of continental precipitation

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    The late Cenozoic was a time of global cooling, increased aridity, and expansion of grasslands. In the last two decades numerous records of oxygen isotopes have been collected to assess plant ecological changes, understand terrestrial paleoclimate, and to determine the surface history of mountain belts. The δ¹⁸(O) values of these records, in general, increase from the mid-Miocene to the Recent. We suggest that these records record an increase in aridity and expansion of grasslands in midlatitude continental regions. We use a nondimensional isotopic vapor transport model coupled with a soil water isotope model to evaluate the role of vapor recycling and transpiration by different plant functional types. This analysis shows that increased vapor recycling associated with grassland expansion along with biomechanistic changes in transpiration by grasses themselves conspires to lower the horizontal gradient in the δ¹⁸(O) of atmospheric vapor as an air mass moves into continental interiors. The resulting signal at a given inland site is an increase in δ¹⁸(O) of precipitation with the expansion of grasslands and increasing aridity, matching the general observed trend in terrestrial Cenozoic δ¹⁸(O) records. There are limits to the isotopic effect that are induced by vapor recycling, which we refer to here as a “hydrostat.” In the modern climate, this hydrostatic limit occurs at approximately the boundary between forest and grassland ecosystems

    Early efforts in modeling the incubation period of infectious diseases with an acute course of illness

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    The incubation period of infectious diseases, the time from infection with a microorganism to onset of disease, is directly relevant to prevention and control. Since explicit models of the incubation period enhance our understanding of the spread of disease, previous classic studies were revisited, focusing on the modeling methods employed and paying particular attention to relatively unknown historical efforts. The earliest study on the incubation period of pandemic influenza was published in 1919, providing estimates of the incubation period of Spanish flu using the daily incidence on ships departing from several ports in Australia. Although the study explicitly dealt with an unknown time of exposure, the assumed periods of exposure, which had an equal probability of infection, were too long, and thus, likely resulted in slight underestimates of the incubation period
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