An Investigation into the Impact of Previous Expert Value Estimates on Appraisal Judgment

Is appraisal judgment influenced by the previous value estimates of other experts? This paper documents an investigation into this question. The literatures on appraisal smoothing and heuristic anchoring were explored to build a theoretical and empirical base. Research methods involved asking apprentice and expert appraisers, some supplied with the previous value estimate of an anonymous expert, to estimate the value of a vacant tract of industrial land. The strong support expected for the contention that appraisers are influenced by the previous value judgments of anonymous experts was not found. Whereas differences between the groups supplied with the previous value estimate and those who were not were in the direction consistent with anchoring, these results were not statistically significant, suggesting that anchoring may be more subtle than generally believed.

Why Do Borrowers Choose Adjustable-Rate Mortgages over Fixed-Rate Mortgages? : A Behavioral Investigation

A considerable number of U.S. borrowers still choose adjustable rate mortgages (ARMs) over fixed rate mortgages (FRMs) even when interest rates are historically very low. This study examines the psychological reasons for the popularity of ARMs by testing the Prospect theory’s reflection hypothesis. Experiments are conducted using business professionals. The results suggest that psychological factors may explain why ARM borrowers tend to ignore the associated risk factors, focusing heavily upon pricing factors when choosing mortgage type. The results also indicate that borrowers may be viewing mortgage selection as part of a positive choice; namely, acquiring a home.Adjustable-rate mortgage; Fixed-rate mortgage; Prospect theory; Reflection hypothesis; Experiment

How Appraisers Do Their Work: A Test of the Appraisal Process and the Development of a Descriptive Model

Actual decisionmaking behavior is rarely the focus of real estate valuation research, but this paper argues the need for just such investigations and reports the results of one study. Two hypotheses concerning the relationship between the appraisal process and the actual behavior of expert appraisers are developed. An experimental test of these hypotheses reveals evidence that the behavior of expert appraisers deviates significantly from the prescribed appraisal process. Based upon the experimental observations, a model of actual expert behavior is built and compared to the prescribed model. Some implications of the observed behavioral divergence are discussed.

Conservation Status and Residential Transaction Prices: Initial Evidence from Dallas, Texas

The traditional mechanisms of private covenants and public restrictions may not meet the needs of residential property owners who want to preserve a certain neighborhood style. Privately initiated and publicly enforced conservation district regulations can preserve desirable neighborhood characteristics and signal to buyers that neighborhood conformity will likely persist. We analyze residential transaction prices in Dallas, Texas and find premiums associated with residential properties within and buffering conservation district locations. These results are robust to the spatial autocorrelation common in residential transaction prices.

Using the Consumer Price Index in Forecasting for Small Geographic Areas

The usefulness of the consumer price index (CPI) as a tool for updating and forecasting income and house values in small geographic market areas is explored in this paper. The topic is introduced by briefly discussing the construction of the CPI and its traditional use as an updating index. The accuracy of such employment is examined statistically with data from 191 census tracts in the metropolitan Atlanta area. For the data set examined, use of the CPI for updating both income and house values is associated with significant and systematic error and bias calling into question its usefulness.

Special issue on property valuation

„Special issue on property valuation” International Journal of Strategic Property Management, 14(1), p. 1 First Published Online: 18 Oct 201

A taxonomic field investigation in to induced bias in residential real estate appraisals

A taxonomic approach to field research was developed and utilized to support empirical and experimental research findings into the impact that incentives/pressures to overvalue have on systematic valuation bias. An expected no‐bias population was defined and valuation judgments from actual, real‐world appraisals were statistically tested against it. The judgments of appraisers presented with no incentive/pressure to over‐value were consistent with the no‐bias population, while the judgments of appraisers presented with incentive/pressure to over‐value were significantly incompatible with the defined no bias population. Santruka Taksonomijos metodas buvo išpletotas ir pritaikytas taikomajam tyrimui siekiant patvirtinti empirinius ir eksperimentinius tyrimu rezultatus, kad paskata arba spaudimas pervertinti yra sistemine paklaida. Buvo apibrežta tiketinoji nešališka imtis ir nustatytos statistines realios vertes. Vertinimai, kuriuose nebuvo paskatos ar spaudimo pervertinti, buvo suderinti su imtimi be sistemines paklaidos, o vertinimai su paskata ar spaudimu pervertinti buvo visiškai nesuderinti su apibrežta imtimi be sistemines paklaidos. First Published Online: 18 Oct 201

Azimuthal anisotropy of charged jet production in root s(NN)=2.76 TeV Pb-Pb collisions

We present measurements of the azimuthal dependence of charged jet production in central and semi-central root s(NN) = 2.76 TeV Pb-Pb collisions with respect to the second harmonic event plane, quantified as nu(ch)(2) (jet). Jet finding is performed employing the anti-k(T) algorithm with a resolution parameter R = 0.2 using charged tracks from the ALICE tracking system. The contribution of the azimuthal anisotropy of the underlying event is taken into account event-by-event. The remaining (statistical) region-to-region fluctuations are removed on an ensemble basis by unfolding the jet spectra for different event plane orientations independently. Significant non-zero nu(ch)(2) (jet) is observed in semi-central collisions (30-50% centrality) for 20 <p(T)(ch) (jet) <90 GeV/c. The azimuthal dependence of the charged jet production is similar to the dependence observed for jets comprising both charged and neutral fragments, and compatible with measurements of the nu(2) of single charged particles at high p(T). Good agreement between the data and predictions from JEWEL, an event generator simulating parton shower evolution in the presence of a dense QCD medium, is found in semi-central collisions. (C) 2015 CERN for the benefit of the ALICE Collaboration. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).Peer reviewe

Forward-central two-particle correlations in p-Pb collisions at root s(NN)=5.02 TeV

Two-particle angular correlations between trigger particles in the forward pseudorapidity range (2.5 2GeV/c. (C) 2015 CERN for the benefit of the ALICE Collaboration. Published by Elsevier B. V.Peer reviewe

Event-shape engineering for inclusive spectra and elliptic flow in Pb-Pb collisions at root(NN)-N-S=2.76 TeV

Peer reviewe