Substitution of Risk Asset Allocation Role of Micro Financial Institutions in Positively Changing Market Structures

Bank consolidations have globally affected banking firms’ market structures. Whenever market structures change, both the consolidating and non-involved performances in the local banking market could be co-impacted in the same or different direction at different degrees. Taking evidence from Nigeria changing market structures, we examined how banks and other micro financial institutions concurrently respond in terms of lending to changes in market structures. To have achieved this, we purposively sampled 845 financial institutions, which comprised 24 commercial banks and 821 Micro-Finance Banks (MFBs). We made use of secondary data, which were collected between 2001 and 2010 from the Central Bank of Nigeria Data Base. We analyzed the data by multivariate regression analysis method. The result shows that fall in bank loans to small businesses (β= - 0.817) due to changes in bank size of merged commercial banks positively affected microfinance bank lending (β = 0.955, p-value= 0.086). MFBs increase their loans to small businesses by 0.955% for every 0.817% fall in banks’ loans. Dynamic changes in bank equity affected commercial banks’ and MFBs propensities to supply loans to small businesses negatively (β=- 0.699) and positively (β=0.727) respectively. This means that as increment in merged bank equity reduced banks’ credits to small business borrowers by 0.699% significantly (p-value=0.023< 0.05), MFBs responded to the shortfall by increasing their loans by 0.727% although insignificantly (p-value=0.147>0.05). Moreover, increases in bank deposits negatively but significantly affected credits commercial banks supply to small business borrowers (β= - 0.725, p-value= 0.012), but positively although insignificantly affected MFBs loan to borrowers (β= 0.776, p-value=0.107) implying that MFBs increase their loans by 0.776% for every 0.725% fall in commercial bank loans. Finally, changes in bank market share negatively and positively affected commercial banks’ and MFBs propensities to supply small credits (β = -0.018) and (β= 0.03) respectively implying that MFBs banks’ increase their loans by 0.03% for every 0.018% fall in merged banks’ loan to small credit consumers. On average therefore, credit availability to small businesses has not decreased due to the offsetting lending role of MFBs in the Nigerian banking sector contrary to general opinion. We strongly recommended that the maximum lending volume of MFBs should be reviewed upward to further strengthen them for this emerging role. Keywords: Bank Consolidation, Small Businesses, Bank Lending, Micro-Finance Banks and Market Structure

Earnings Management of Quoted Corporate Firms: Detecting and Rethinking the Key Drivers in an Insensitive Capital Market as a Panacea for Investors’ Resource Abuse

Both mechanistic and positive accounting theories were postulated to explain the drivers of earnings management. Scholars postulated the theories perhaps under the belief that market would always be sensitive to firm performance reports. Since the emergence of these theories, many empirical researches have been based on such a framework. They found that positive relationship exists between capital market and earnings management. The key questions we want to address in this present study is whether the direction will remain unaltered if market goes insensitive. In addition, if it has altered, what key factors could determine earnings management in the turn of the market? Given that some developing economies capital markets are now insensitive to performance stimuli for over a long period, the reality of metrics constituting the real drivers of earnings management needs rethinking for avoidance of investors’ resource misallocation. In this study, we examined variables that could really constitute the key drivers using a cross-sectional survey research design in an insensitive market among the quoted firms in Nigeria. We analyzed data we obtained from survey using logistic regression model, which helped us to detect earnings management maximum likelihood in an insensitive stock market. The result revealed that market capitalization and compensation contracting based on share options negatively drive managers to engage in earnings management as opposed to mechanistic theories if market turns insensitive to performance. However, non- market based factors including debt covenant, compensation based on cash options, loss deletion and regulation positively drive managers to engage in earnings management practices whether market is sensitive or insensitive to performance report. Therefore, we found the key drivers of earnings management in an insensitive market to constitute non-market based compensation incentives. We recommend that in order to encourage earnings quality and eschew investors’ resource misallocation, earnings management containment based on the efficient, sensitive market premises should be reviewed, and emphasis should be placed on non-market based containment strategies. Key Words: Earnings; Earnings Management; Drivers, Market Capitalization; Market Sensitivity; Capital Market Insensitivit

Consolidations and Involuntary Huge Equity Alteration Duress: Exposing their Contemporaneous Dynamic Influence on Small Risk Asset Creating Propensity of Merged Banking firms

We investigated how bank consolidations, and sudden involuntary capital variations organically influenced small risk asset creation abilities of Nigerian banking firms based on the framework of Monti-Klein Theory for making effective lending policies. Within the past decade, banks in Nigeria have in many occasions been mandated to change their capital base within a limited time too short for such exercise. As a survival strategy, they resort to involuntary consolidations. We fear that this sudden mergers and involuntary alteration in equity level could blow banks to focus abnormally away from small risk asset creation thereby resulting in small business loans’ disequilibrium. The information regarding this likely effect has remained substantially asymmetrical constituting a real gap. In near future, if the gap remains, policy capable of pulling down the entire economy could emerge. While previous papers had attempted to solve this problem, data limitations must have made them derail from the target especially by engaging insufficient bank data, which can only capture the pre-merger implication. In this present paper, we surmounted this bottleneck by using up to 6 years post merger data. Unique to this paper, we selected 24 banks that involuntarily emerged and/or recapitalized after N25billion bank recapitalization-mandate for study using an Ex-Post Facto as a research design. Using data from Central Bank of Nigeria Bulletin and databases of banks we sampled for study, we found that bank consolidations under duress negatively and significantly influenced fully restructured banks’ propensity to create small risk assets. Moreover, we found that when change in equity was sudden, unplanned and involuntary, the effect on fully restructured banks propensity to make small loans was organically negative. Specifically, banks whose equity condition positively alters overnight due to involuntary consolidations break a significant proportion of their lending relationship with small business borrowers in the long-run. This means that involuntary consolidations and sudden equity change limit significantly the consolidated banks’ ability to create small risk assets. Based on these results, we recommendation that regulatory authority should not seek to increase lending to small businesses by encouraging sudden and involuntary bank capital adequacy through bank consolidations. Keywords: Mergers, Acquisitions, Consolidation, Small Businesses, Equity Condition, and consolidation dures

Creative Accounting around Contemporaneous Involuntary Bank Mergers and Acquisitions, and Non-Routine Board Changes

Thispaper examines the magnitude and direction of creative accounting following contemporaneousmergers and acquisitions consummated under duress, and abnormal corporate boardchanges taking evidence from Nigeria. But most importantly, the paper determineswhether any likely resultant abnormal accrual following corporate acquisitions canbe unconsciously normalized by ‘big bath’ accounting players following contemporaneousnon-routine board leader replacement. Evidence has shown that following acquisitions,mangers can engage in income-increasing management on one hand. On the other hand,new CEOs can give earnings a ‘big’ downward ‘bath’ blaming their predecessors forthe poor performance while pursuing personal contractual performance benefit. Hence,within extensive researches already carried out on the impacts of acquisitions andboard replacement on creative accounting, there remains unanswered question of theextent of accrual manipulation when the two events occur simultaneously. Drawingheavily from Jones and Dechow models in estimating normal accrual, normal cash flowfrom operations and both discretionary accrual and cash flow, we report consistentwith extant literatures, that under consolidation duress, the victim firms engagein a significant discretionary income-increasing manipulation. Our study also confirmsthat significant downward accrual management follows corporate board changes inNigeria. However, the board changes that follow consolidation restructuring limitthe persistence of the abnormal accrual in the end. We find that the ‘Big bath’accounting players reverse although unconsciously a significant proportion of theupward managed accrual from opportunistic perspective. The ratio of pre consolidationaccrual hiking to post-consolidation board changes reversal is 3:2, which indicates67% normalization for stock based acquisitions. For cash based acquisitions however,the reversal is much lower. Our findings suggest that where abnormal earnings ishighly suspected following involuntary acquisitions, board restructuring that willlead to new managers could help in correcting or reversing significant proportionof the accrual abnormality. Keywords: Discretionary Accounting,Consolidations, Earnings management, Mergers and acquisitions, Accrua

Online cognitive-behavioral intervention for stress among English as a second language teachers: implications for school health policy

IntroductionStress is one of the highest-ranked work-related injuries worldwide and has become almost universal among the Nigerian workforce. English as a Second Language (ESL) teachers face enormous work-related threats that lead to occupational stress. When ESL teachers are stressed, students' language development and entire educational progress are at risk. This is mostly underscored as English, though a second language, serves as the language of instruction in Nigerian schools. As a result, managing occupational stress is particularly important for ESL teachers, as it is among the definitive ways of improving ESL learning and overall educational outcomes. This study examined the effectiveness of online cognitive behavioral intervention (o-CBI) in lowering occupational stress among ESL teachers.MethodESL teachers with at least 1 year of experience were among the participants (N = 89). Participants were divided into two groups: the intervention group (N = 44) and the control group (N = 45). For 9 weeks, the experimental group engaged in nine sessions of 2 h of the o-CBI program. The Single Item Stress Questionnaire (SISQ), the Satisfaction with Therapy and Therapist Scale-Revised (STTS–R), and the Teachers' Stress Inventory (TSI) were the measures used to collect primary and secondary data. Four sets of data were collected at baseline, post-test, and follow-up 1 and 2 evaluations. The data were analyzed using mean, standard deviation, t-test statistics, repeated measures ANOVA, and bar charts.Results and discussionCompared to the control group, the o-CBT group had significantly lower TSI scores at the post-test (Time 2) and follow-up evaluations (Times 3 and 4). Between pre-, post-, and follow-up 1 and 2 measurements, there were no significant differences in occupational stress index scores in the control group. It was concluded that o-CBI is effective in job-stress treatment among ESL teachers. In addition, implications for school health policy are discussed. The o-CBI for occupational stress was well received by the participants, showing high acceptability among ESL teachers

Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: In an era of shifting global agendas and expanded emphasis on non-communicable diseases and injuries along with communicable diseases, sound evidence on trends by cause at the national level is essential. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic scientific assessment of published, publicly available, and contributed data on incidence, prevalence, and mortality for a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of diseases and injuries. Methods: GBD estimates incidence, prevalence, mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to 369 diseases and injuries, for two sexes, and for 204 countries and territories. Input data were extracted from censuses, household surveys, civil registration and vital statistics, disease registries, health service use, air pollution monitors, satellite imaging, disease notifications, and other sources. Cause-specific death rates and cause fractions were calculated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression. Cause-specific deaths were adjusted to match the total all-cause deaths calculated as part of the GBD population, fertility, and mortality estimates. Deaths were multiplied by standard life expectancy at each age to calculate YLLs. A Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, was used to ensure consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, excess mortality, and cause-specific mortality for most causes. Prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights for mutually exclusive sequelae of diseases and injuries to calculate YLDs. We considered results in the context of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and fertility rate in females younger than 25 years. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered 1000 draw values of the posterior distribution. Findings: Global health has steadily improved over the past 30 years as measured by age-standardised DALY rates. After taking into account population growth and ageing, the absolute number of DALYs has remained stable. Since 2010, the pace of decline in global age-standardised DALY rates has accelerated in age groups younger than 50 years compared with the 1990–2010 time period, with the greatest annualised rate of decline occurring in the 0–9-year age group. Six infectious diseases were among the top ten causes of DALYs in children younger than 10 years in 2019: lower respiratory infections (ranked second), diarrhoeal diseases (third), malaria (fifth), meningitis (sixth), whooping cough (ninth), and sexually transmitted infections (which, in this age group, is fully accounted for by congenital syphilis; ranked tenth). In adolescents aged 10–24 years, three injury causes were among the top causes of DALYs: road injuries (ranked first), self-harm (third), and interpersonal violence (fifth). Five of the causes that were in the top ten for ages 10–24 years were also in the top ten in the 25–49-year age group: road injuries (ranked first), HIV/AIDS (second), low back pain (fourth), headache disorders (fifth), and depressive disorders (sixth). In 2019, ischaemic heart disease and stroke were the top-ranked causes of DALYs in both the 50–74-year and 75-years-and-older age groups. Since 1990, there has been a marked shift towards a greater proportion of burden due to YLDs from non-communicable diseases and injuries. In 2019, there were 11 countries where non-communicable disease and injury YLDs constituted more than half of all disease burden. Decreases in age-standardised DALY rates have accelerated over the past decade in countries at the lower end of the SDI range, while improvements have started to stagnate or even reverse in countries with higher SDI. Interpretation: As disability becomes an increasingly large component of disease burden and a larger component of health expenditure, greater research and developm nt investment is needed to identify new, more effective intervention strategies. With a rapidly ageing global population, the demands on health services to deal with disabling outcomes, which increase with age, will require policy makers to anticipate these changes. The mix of universal and more geographically specific influences on health reinforces the need for regular reporting on population health in detail and by underlying cause to help decision makers to identify success stories of disease control to emulate, as well as opportunities to improve. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 licens

The evolving SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Africa: Insights from rapidly expanding genomic surveillance.

Investment in severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) sequencing in Africa over the past year has led to a major increase in the number of sequences that have been generated and used to track the pandemic on the continent, a number that now exceeds 100,000 genomes. Our results show an increase in the number of African countries that are able to sequence domestically and highlight that local sequencing enables faster turnaround times and more-regular routine surveillance. Despite limitations of low testing proportions, findings from this genomic surveillance study underscore the heterogeneous nature of the pandemic and illuminate the distinct dispersal dynamics of variants of concern-particularly Alpha, Beta, Delta, and Omicron-on the continent. Sustained investment for diagnostics and genomic surveillance in Africa is needed as the virus continues to evolve while the continent faces many emerging and reemerging infectious disease threats. These investments are crucial for pandemic preparedness and response and will serve the health of the continent well into the 21st century

The evolving SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Africa: Insights from rapidly expanding genomic surveillance

INTRODUCTION Investment in Africa over the past year with regard to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) sequencing has led to a massive increase in the number of sequences, which, to date, exceeds 100,000 sequences generated to track the pandemic on the continent. These sequences have profoundly affected how public health officials in Africa have navigated the COVID-19 pandemic. RATIONALE We demonstrate how the first 100,000 SARS-CoV-2 sequences from Africa have helped monitor the epidemic on the continent, how genomic surveillance expanded over the course of the pandemic, and how we adapted our sequencing methods to deal with an evolving virus. Finally, we also examine how viral lineages have spread across the continent in a phylogeographic framework to gain insights into the underlying temporal and spatial transmission dynamics for several variants of concern (VOCs). RESULTS Our results indicate that the number of countries in Africa that can sequence the virus within their own borders is growing and that this is coupled with a shorter turnaround time from the time of sampling to sequence submission. Ongoing evolution necessitated the continual updating of primer sets, and, as a result, eight primer sets were designed in tandem with viral evolution and used to ensure effective sequencing of the virus. The pandemic unfolded through multiple waves of infection that were each driven by distinct genetic lineages, with B.1-like ancestral strains associated with the first pandemic wave of infections in 2020. Successive waves on the continent were fueled by different VOCs, with Alpha and Beta cocirculating in distinct spatial patterns during the second wave and Delta and Omicron affecting the whole continent during the third and fourth waves, respectively. Phylogeographic reconstruction points toward distinct differences in viral importation and exportation patterns associated with the Alpha, Beta, Delta, and Omicron variants and subvariants, when considering both Africa versus the rest of the world and viral dissemination within the continent. Our epidemiological and phylogenetic inferences therefore underscore the heterogeneous nature of the pandemic on the continent and highlight key insights and challenges, for instance, recognizing the limitations of low testing proportions. We also highlight the early warning capacity that genomic surveillance in Africa has had for the rest of the world with the detection of new lineages and variants, the most recent being the characterization of various Omicron subvariants. CONCLUSION Sustained investment for diagnostics and genomic surveillance in Africa is needed as the virus continues to evolve. This is important not only to help combat SARS-CoV-2 on the continent but also because it can be used as a platform to help address the many emerging and reemerging infectious disease threats in Africa. In particular, capacity building for local sequencing within countries or within the continent should be prioritized because this is generally associated with shorter turnaround times, providing the most benefit to local public health authorities tasked with pandemic response and mitigation and allowing for the fastest reaction to localized outbreaks. These investments are crucial for pandemic preparedness and response and will serve the health of the continent well into the 21st century

Mapping age- and sex-specific HIV prevalence in adults in sub-Saharan Africa, 2000-2018

BACKGROUND: Human immunodeficiency virus and acquired immune deficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) is still among the leading causes of disease burden and mortality in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), and the world is not on track to meet targets set for ending the epidemic by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) and the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Precise HIV burden information is critical for effective geographic and epidemiological targeting of prevention and treatment interventions. Age- and sex-specific HIV prevalence estimates are widely available at the national level, and region-wide local estimates were recently published for adults overall. We add further dimensionality to previous analyses by estimating HIV prevalence at local scales, stratified into sex-specific 5-year age groups for adults ages 15-59 years across SSA. METHODS: We analyzed data from 91 seroprevalence surveys and sentinel surveillance among antenatal care clinic (ANC) attendees using model-based geostatistical methods to produce estimates of HIV prevalence across 43 countries in SSA, from years 2000 to 2018, at a 5 × 5-km resolution and presented among second administrative level (typically districts or counties) units. RESULTS: We found substantial variation in HIV prevalence across localities, ages, and sexes that have been masked in earlier analyses. Within-country variation in prevalence in 2018 was a median 3.5 times greater across ages and sexes, compared to for all adults combined. We note large within-district prevalence differences between age groups: for men, 50% of districts displayed at least a 14-fold difference between age groups with the highest and lowest prevalence, and at least a 9-fold difference for women. Prevalence trends also varied over time; between 2000 and 2018, 70% of all districts saw a reduction in prevalence greater than five percentage points in at least one sex and age group. Meanwhile, over 30% of all districts saw at least a five percentage point prevalence increase in one or more sex and age group. CONCLUSIONS: As the HIV epidemic persists and evolves in SSA, geographic and demographic shifts in prevention and treatment efforts are necessary. These estimates offer epidemiologically informative detail to better guide more targeted interventions, vital for combating HIV in SSA

Mapping age- and sex-specific HIV prevalence in adults in sub-Saharan Africa, 2000–2018

Background: Human immunodeficiency virus and acquired immune deficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) is still among the leading causes of disease burden and mortality in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), and the world is not on track to meet targets set for ending the epidemic by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) and the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Precise HIV burden information is critical for effective geographic and epidemiological targeting of prevention and treatment interventions. Age- and sex-specific HIV prevalence estimates are widely available at the national level, and region-wide local estimates were recently published for adults overall. We add further dimensionality to previous analyses by estimating HIV prevalence at local scales, stratified into sex-specific 5-year age groups for adults ages 15–59 years across SSA. Methods: We analyzed data from 91 seroprevalence surveys and sentinel surveillance among antenatal care clinic (ANC) attendees using model-based geostatistical methods to produce estimates of HIV prevalence across 43 countries in SSA, from years 2000 to 2018, at a 5 × 5-km resolution and presented among second administrative level (typically districts or counties) units. Results: We found substantial variation in HIV prevalence across localities, ages, and sexes that have been masked in earlier analyses. Within-country variation in prevalence in 2018 was a median 3.5 times greater across ages and sexes, compared to for all adults combined. We note large within-district prevalence differences between age groups: for men, 50% of districts displayed at least a 14-fold difference between age groups with the highest and lowest prevalence, and at least a 9-fold difference for women. Prevalence trends also varied over time; between 2000 and 2018, 70% of all districts saw a reduction in prevalence greater than five percentage points in at least one sex and age group. Meanwhile, over 30% of all districts saw at least a five percentage point prevalence increase in one or more sex and age group. Conclusions: As the HIV epidemic persists and evolves in SSA, geographic and demographic shifts in prevention and treatment efforts are necessary. These estimates offer epidemiologically informative detail to better guide more targeted interventions, vital for combating HIV in SSA