Commitment as investment under uncertainty

Irreversible investment and the techniques associated with pricing real options have led to significant advances many areas. We broaden this range of applications, showing how the techniques can apply to many policy problems in finance, macroeconomics, and trade policy. With small changes, standard techniques can handle a broad range of strategic problems related to policy. The decision to commit is like the decision to make an irreversible investment. Explicitly considering and correctly valuing the option to wait makes discretion relatively more attractive, implies that increased uncertainty increases the gain to discretion, and results in policy which displays hysteresis.Investments

Regimen selection in the OPTIONS trial of HIV salvage therapy: drug resistance, prior therapy, and race–ethnicity determine the degree of regimen complexity

Regimen selection for highly treatment-experienced patients is complicated

HIV Salvage Therapy Does Not Require Nucleoside Reverse Transcriptase Inhibitors: A Randomized, Controlled Trial

Nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTIs) are often included in antiretroviral (ARV) regimens in treatment-experienced patients in the absence of data from randomized trials

Choline Dehydrogenase Polymorphism rs12676 Is a Functional Variation and Is Associated with Changes in Human Sperm Cell Function

Approximately 15% of couples are affected by infertility and up to half of these cases arise from male factor infertility. Unidentified genetic aberrations such as chromosomal deletions, translocations and single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) may be the underlying cause of many cases of idiopathic male infertility. Deletion of the choline dehydrogenase (Chdh) gene in mice results in decreased male fertility due to diminished sperm motility; sperm from Chdh−/− males have decreased ATP concentrations likely stemming from abnormal sperm mitochondrial morphology and function in these cells. Several SNPs have been identified in the human CHDH gene that may result in altered CHDH enzymatic activity. rs12676 (G233T), a non-synonymous SNP located in the CHDH coding region, is associated with increased susceptibility to dietary choline deficiency and risk of breast cancer. We now report evidence that this SNP is also associated with altered sperm motility patterns and dysmorphic mitochondrial structure in sperm. Sperm produced by men who are GT or TT for rs12676 have 40% and 73% lower ATP concentrations, respectively, in their sperm. rs12676 is associated with decreased CHDH protein in sperm and hepatocytes. A second SNP located in the coding region of IL17BR, rs1025689, is linked to altered sperm motility characteristics and changes in choline metabolite concentrations in sperm

Using observational data to emulate a randomized trial of dynamic treatment switching strategies

BACKGROUND: When a clinical treatment fails or shows suboptimal results, the question of when to switch to another treatment arises. Treatment switching strategies are often dynamic because the time of switching depends on the evolution of an individual's time-varying covariates. Dynamic strategies can be directly compared in randomized trials. For example, HIV-infected individuals receiving antiretroviral therapy could be randomized to switching therapy within 90 days of HIV-1 RNA crossing above a threshold of either 400 copies/ml (tight-control strategy) or 1000 copies/ml (loose-control strategy).METHODS: We review an approach to emulate a randomized trial of dynamic switching strategies using observational data from the Antiretroviral Therapy Cohort Collaboration, the Centers for AIDS Research Network of Integrated Clinical Systems and the HIV-CAUSAL Collaboration. We estimated the comparative effect of tight-control vs. loose-control strategies on death and AIDS or death via inverse-probability weighting.RESULTS: Of 43 803 individuals who initiated an eligible antiretroviral therapy regimen in 2002 or later, 2001 met the baseline inclusion criteria for the mortality analysis and 1641 for the AIDS or death analysis. There were 21 deaths and 33 AIDS or death events in the tight-control group, and 28 deaths and 41 AIDS or death events in the loose-control group. Compared with tight control, the adjusted hazard ratios (95% confidence interval) for loose control were 1.10 (0.73, 1.66) for death, and 1.04 (0.86, 1.27) for AIDS or death.CONCLUSIONS: Although our effective sample sizes were small and our estimates imprecise, the described methodological approach can serve as an example for future analyses

Why do banks promise to pay par on demand?

We survey the theories of why banks promise to pay par on demand and examine evidence about the conditions under which banks have promised to pay the par value of deposits and banknotes on demand when holding only fractional reserves. The theoretical literature can be broadly divided into four strands: liquidity provision, asymmetric information, legal restrictions, and a medium of exchange. We assume that it is not zero cost to make a promise to redeem a liability at par value on demand. If so, then the conditions in the theories that result in par redemption are possible explanations of why banks promise to pay par on demand. If the explanation based on customers’ demand for liquidity is correct, payment of deposits at par will be promised when banks hold assets that are illiquid in the short run. If the asymmetric-information explanation based on the difficulty of valuing assets is correct, the marketability of banks’ assets determines whether banks promise to pay par. If the legal restrictions explanation of par redemption is correct, banks will not promise to pay par if they are not required to do so. If the transaction explanation is correct, banks will promise to pay par value only if the deposits are used in transactions. After the survey of the theoretical literature, we examine the history of banking in several countries in different eras: fourth-century Athens, medieval Italy, Japan, and free banking and money market mutual funds in the United States. We find that all of the theories can explain some of the observed banking arrangements, and none explain all of them

Measurement of t(t)over-bar normalised multi-differential cross sections in pp collisions at root s=13 TeV, and simultaneous determination of the strong coupling strength, top quark pole mass, and parton distribution functions

Peer reviewe

An embedding technique to determine ττ backgrounds in proton-proton collision data

An embedding technique is presented to estimate standard model tau tau backgrounds from data with minimal simulation input. In the data, the muons are removed from reconstructed mu mu events and replaced with simulated tau leptons with the same kinematic properties. In this way, a set of hybrid events is obtained that does not rely on simulation except for the decay of the tau leptons. The challenges in describing the underlying event or the production of associated jets in the simulation are avoided. The technique described in this paper was developed for CMS. Its validation and the inherent uncertainties are also discussed. The demonstration of the performance of the technique is based on a sample of proton-proton collisions collected by CMS in 2017 at root s = 13 TeV corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 41.5 fb(-1).Peer reviewe

Search for Physics beyond the Standard Model in Events with Overlapping Photons and Jets

Results are reported from a search for new particles that decay into a photon and two gluons, in events with jets. Novel jet substructure techniques are developed that allow photons to be identified in an environment densely populated with hadrons. The analyzed proton-proton collision data were collected by the CMS experiment at the LHC, in 2016 at root s = 13 TeV, and correspond to an integrated luminosity of 35.9 fb(-1). The spectra of total transverse hadronic energy of candidate events are examined for deviations from the standard model predictions. No statistically significant excess is observed over the expected background. The first cross section limits on new physics processes resulting in such events are set. The results are interpreted as upper limits on the rate of gluino pair production, utilizing a simplified stealth supersymmetry model. The excluded gluino masses extend up to 1.7 TeV, for a neutralino mass of 200 GeV and exceed previous mass constraints set by analyses targeting events with isolated photons.Peer reviewe