Poroelastic responses of confined aquifers to subsurface strain and their use for volcano monitoring

Well water level changes associated with magmatic unrest can be interpreted as a result of pore pressure changes in the aquifer due to crustal deformation, and so could provide constraints on the subsurface processes causing this strain. We use finite element analysis to demonstrate the response of aquifers to volumetric strain induced by pressurized magma reservoirs. Two different aquifers are invoked – an unconsolidated pyroclastic deposit and a vesicular lava flow – and embedded in an impermeable crust, overlying a magma chamber. The time-dependent, fully coupled models simulate crustal deformation accompanying chamber pressurization and the resulting hydraulic head changes as well as flow through the porous aquifer, i.e. porous flow. The simulated strain leads to centimetres (pyroclastic aquifer) to metres (lava flow aquifer) of hydraulic head changes; both strain and hydraulic head change with time due to substantial porous flow in the hydrological system. Well level changes are particularly sensitive to chamber volume, shape and pressurization strength, followed by aquifer permeability and the phase of the pore fluid. The depths of chamber and aquifer, as well as the aquifer's Young's modulus also have significant influence on the hydraulic head signal. While source characteristics, the distance between chamber and aquifer and the elastic stratigraphy determine the strain field and its partitioning, flow and coupling parameters define how the aquifer responds to this strain and how signals change with time. We find that generic analytical models can fail to capture the complex pre-eruptive subsurface mechanics leading to strain-induced well level changes, due to aquifer pressure changes being sensitive to chamber shape and lithological heterogeneities. In addition, the presence of a pore fluid and its flow have a significant influence on the strain signal in the aquifer and are commonly neglected in analytical models. These findings highlight the need for numerical models for the interpretation of observed well level signals. However, simulated water table changes do indeed mirror volumetric strain, and wells are therefore a valuable addition to monitoring systems that could provide important insights into pre-eruptive dynamics

Ductility and compressibility accommodate high magma flux beneath a silicic continental rift caldera:Insights from Corbetti caldera (Ethiopia)

Abstract Large silicic magma reservoirs preferentially form in the upper crust of extensional continental environments. However, our quantitative understanding of the link between mantle magmatism, silicic reservoirs, and surface deformation during rifting is very limited. Here, we focus on Corbetti, a peralkaline caldera in the densely populated Main Ethiopian Rift, which lies above a focused zone of upper mantle partial melt and has been steadily uplifting at a maximum rate of 6.6±1.2 cm yr−1 for more than 10 yr. Numerical modeling shows that a maximum concomitant residual gravity increase of 9±3 μGal yr−1 by the intrusion of mafic magma at ∼7 km depth into a compressible and inelastic crystal mush best explains the observed deformation and gravity changes. The derived magma mass flux of ∼1011 kg yr−1 is anomalously high and at least 1 order of magnitude greater than the mean long‐term mass eruption rate. This study demonstrates that periodic and high‐rate magmatic rejuvenation of upper‐crustal mush is a significant and rapid contributor to mature continental rifting

Phreatic eruptions at crater lakes: occurrence statistics and probabilistic hazard forecast

Phreatic eruptions, although posing a serious threat to people in crater proximity, are often underestimated and have been comparatively understudied. The detailed eruption catalogue for Ruapehu Volcano (New Zealand) provides an exceptional opportunity to study the statistics of recurring phreatic explosions at a crater lake volcano. We performed a statistical analysis on this phreatic eruption database, which suggests that phreatic events at Ruapehu do not follow a Poisson process. Instead they tend to cluster, which is possibly linked to an increased heat flow during periods of a more shallow-seated magma column. Larger explosions are more likely to follow shortly after smaller events, as opposed to longer periods of quiescence. The absolute probability for a phreatic explosion to occur at Ruapehu within the next month is about 10%, when averaging over the last 70 years of recording. However, the frequency of phreatic explosions is significantly higher than the background level in years prior to magmatic episodes. Combining clast ejection simulations with a Bayesian event tree tool (PyBetVH) we perform a probabilistic assessment of the hazard due to ballistic ejecta in the summit area of Ruapehu, which is frequently visited by hikers. Resulting hazard maps show that the absolute probability for the summit to be affected by ballistics within the next month is up to 6%. The hazard is especially high on the northern lakeshore, where there is a mountain refuge. Our results contribute to the local hazard assessment as well as the general perception of hazards due to steam-driven explosions

Бокс как вид спорта, дающий студентам преимущества в будущей профессии.

Geodetic surveying is a core volcano monitoring technique. Measurements of how the crust deforms can give valuable insight into the mechanisms and processes that drive an eruption, and the way in which they change. Various geodetic observables, including ground deformation and gravity changes, have been recorded on Montserrat throughout the eruption. Instrumentation and surveying networks used to make such measurements have evolved significantly since 1995, providing increasingly accurate and robust observations. The detailed research that has been facilitated by these rich geodetic datasets has illuminated many aspects of the Soufrière Hills Volcano (SHV) and demonstrated eruptive mechanisms that are relevant to the study of other volcanoes. We have compiled a history of the geodetic study of the eruption on Montserrat, detailing the development of surveying techniques, network design and data processing since 1995. We then underline some of the key geodetic observations and review some of the most significant research that has contributed to our understanding of this volcanic system. Finally, we apply a series of typical deformation inversion models to deformation observations, and discuss the parameter sensitivity of such modelling approaches and how confidently they can be applied to identify the characteristics of the mechanisms feeding the eruption

Magma plumbing systems: a geophysical perspective

Over the last few decades, significant advances in using geophysical techniques to image the structure of magma plumbing systems have enabled the identification of zones of melt accumulation, crystal mush development, and magma migration. Combining advanced geophysical observations with petrological and geochemical data has arguably revolutionised our understanding of, and afforded exciting new insights into, the development of entire magma plumbing systems. However, divisions between the scales and physical settings over which these geophysical, petrological, and geochemical methods are applied still remain. To characterise some of these differences and promote the benefits of further integration between these methodologies, we provide a review of geophysical techniques and discuss how they can be utilised to provide a structural context for and place physical limits on the chemical evolution of magma plumbing systems. For example, we examine how Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR), coupled with Global Positioning System (GPS) and Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) data, and seismicity may be used to track magma migration in near real-time. We also discuss how seismic imaging, gravimetry and electromagnetic data can identify contemporary melt zones, magma reservoirs and/or crystal mushes. These techniques complement seismic reflection data and rock magnetic analyses that delimit the structure and emplacement of ancient magma plumbing systems. For each of these techniques, with the addition of full-waveform inversion (FWI), the use of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) and the integration of geophysics with numerical modelling, we discuss potential future directions. We show that approaching problems concerning magma plumbing systems from an integrated petrological, geochemical, and geophysical perspective will undoubtedly yield important scientific advances, providing exciting future opportunities for the volcanological community