Improving statistical inference on pathogen densities estimated by quantitative molecular methods: malaria gametocytaemia as a case study

BACKGROUND: Quantitative molecular methods (QMMs) such as quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (q-PCR), reverse-transcriptase PCR (qRT-PCR) and quantitative nucleic acid sequence-based amplification (QT-NASBA) are increasingly used to estimate pathogen density in a variety of clinical and epidemiological contexts. These methods are often classified as semi-quantitative, yet estimates of reliability or sensitivity are seldom reported. Here, a statistical framework is developed for assessing the reliability (uncertainty) of pathogen densities estimated using QMMs and the associated diagnostic sensitivity. The method is illustrated with quantification of Plasmodium falciparum gametocytaemia by QT-NASBA. RESULTS: The reliability of pathogen (e.g. gametocyte) densities, and the accompanying diagnostic sensitivity, estimated by two contrasting statistical calibration techniques, are compared; a traditional method and a mixed model Bayesian approach. The latter accounts for statistical dependence of QMM assays run under identical laboratory protocols and permits structural modelling of experimental measurements, allowing precision to vary with pathogen density. Traditional calibration cannot account for inter-assay variability arising from imperfect QMMs and generates estimates of pathogen density that have poor reliability, are variable among assays and inaccurately reflect diagnostic sensitivity. The Bayesian mixed model approach assimilates information from replica QMM assays, improving reliability and inter-assay homogeneity, providing an accurate appraisal of quantitative and diagnostic performance. CONCLUSIONS: Bayesian mixed model statistical calibration supersedes traditional techniques in the context of QMM-derived estimates of pathogen density, offering the potential to improve substantially the depth and quality of clinical and epidemiological inference for a wide variety of pathogens

Outcome of ATP-based tumor chemosensitivity assay directed chemotherapy in heavily pre-treated recurrent ovarian carcinoma

BACKGROUND: We wished to evaluate the clinical response following ATP-Tumor Chemosensitivity Assay (ATP-TCA) directed salvage chemotherapy in a series of UK patients with advanced ovarian cancer. The results are compared with that of a similar assay used in a different country in terms of evaluability and clinical endpoints. METHODS: From November 1998 to November 2001, 46 patients with pre-treated, advanced ovarian cancer were given a total of 56 courses of chemotherapy based on in-vitro ATP-TCA responses obtained from fresh tumor samples or ascites. Forty-four patients were evaluable for results. Of these, 18 patients had clinically platinum resistant disease (relapse < 6 months after first course of chemotherapy). There was evidence of cisplatin resistance in 31 patients from their first ATP-TCA. Response to treatment was assessed by radiology, clinical assessment and tumor marker level (CA 125). RESULTS: The overall response rate was 59% (33/56) per course of chemotherapy, including 12 complete responses, 21 partial responses, 6 with stable disease, and 15 with progressive disease. Two patients were not evaluable for response having received just one cycle of chemotherapy: if these were excluded the response rate is 61%. Fifteen patients are still alive. Median progression free survival (PFS) was 6.6 months per course of chemotherapy; median overall survival (OAS) for each patient following the start of TCA-directed therapy was 10.4 months (95% confidence interval 7.9-12.8 months). CONCLUSION: The results show similar response rates to previous studies using ATP-TCA directed therapy in recurrent ovarian cancer. The assay shows high evaluability and this study adds weight to the reproducibility of results from different centre

Agent based modelling helps in understanding the rules by which fibroblasts support keratinocyte colony formation

Background: Autologous keratincoytes are routinely expanded using irradiated mouse fibroblasts and bovine serum for clinical use. With growing concerns about the safety of these xenobiotic materials, it is desirable to culture keratinocytes in media without animal derived products. An improved understanding of epithelial/mesenchymal interactions could assist in this. Methodology/Principal Findings: A keratincyte/fibroblast o-culture model was developed by extending an agent-based keratinocyte colony formation model to include the response of keratinocytes to both fibroblasts and serum. The model was validated by comparison of the in virtuo and in vitro multicellular behaviour of keratinocytes and fibroblasts in single and co-culture in Greens medium. To test the robustness of the model, several properties of the fibroblasts were changed to investigate their influence on the multicellular morphogenesis of keratinocyes and fibroblasts. The model was then used to generate hypotheses to explore the interactions of both proliferative and growth arrested fibroblasts with keratinocytes. The key predictions arising from the model which were confirmed by in vitro experiments were that 1) the ratio of fibroblasts to keratinocytes would critically influence keratinocyte colony expansion, 2) this ratio needed to be optimum at the beginning of the co-culture, 3) proliferative fibroblasts would be more effective than irradiated cells in expanding keratinocytes and 4) in the presence of an adequate number of fibroblasts, keratinocyte expansion would be independent of serum. Conclusions: A closely associated computational and biological approach is a powerful tool for understanding complex biological systems such as the interactions between keratinocytes and fibroblasts. The key outcome of this study is the finding that the early addition of a critical ratio of proliferative fibroblasts can give rapid keratinocyte expansion without the use of irradiated mouse fibroblasts and bovine serum

HER2 testing in breast cancer: Opportunities and challenges

Human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) is overexpressed in 15-25% of breast cancers, usually as a result of HER2 gene amplification. Positive HER2 status is considered to be an adverse prognostic factor. Recognition of the role of HER2 in breast cancer growth has led to the development of anti-HER2 directed therapy, with the humanized monoclonal antibody trastuzumab (Herceptin (R)) having been approved for the therapy of HER2-positive metastatic breast cancer. Clinical studies have further suggested that HER2 status can provide important information regarding success or failure of certain hormonal therapies or chemotherapies. As a result of these developments, there has been increasing demand to perform HER2 testing on current and archived breast cancer specimens. This article reviews the molecular background of HER2 function, activation and inhibition as well as current opinions concerning its role in chemosensitivity and interaction with estrogen receptor biology. The different tissue-based assays used to detect HER2 amplification and overexpression are discussed with respect to their advantages and disadvantages, when to test (at initial diagnosis or pre-treatment), where to test (locally or centralized) and the need for quality assurance to ensure accurate and valid testing results

Phosphorylated c-Src in the nucleus is associated with improved patient outcome in ER-positive breast cancer

Elevated c-Src protein expression has been shown in breast cancer and &lt;i&gt;in vitro&lt;/i&gt; evidence suggests a role in endocrine resistance. To investigate whether c-Src is involved in endocrine resistance, we examined the expression of both total and activated c-Src in human breast cancer specimens from a cohort of oestrogen receptor (ER)-positive tamoxifen-treated breast cancer patients. Tissue microarray technology was employed to analyse 262 tumour specimens taken before tamoxifen treatment. Immunohistochemistry using total c-Src and activated c-Src antibodies was performed. Kaplan–Meier survival curves were constructed and log-rank test were performed. High level of nuclear activated Src was significantly associated with improved overall survival (&lt;i&gt;P&lt;/i&gt;=0.047) and lower recurrence rates on tamoxifen (&lt;i&gt;P&lt;/i&gt;=0.02). Improved patient outcome was only seen with activated Src in the nucleus. Nuclear activated Src expression was significantly associated with node-negative disease and a lower NPI (&lt;i&gt;P&lt;/i&gt;&#60;0.05). On subgroup analysis, only ER-positive/progesterone receptor (PgR)-positive tumours were associated with improved survival (&lt;i&gt;P&lt;/i&gt;=0.004). This shows that c-Src activity is increased in breast cancer and that activated Src within the nucleus of ER-positive tumours predicts an improved outcome. In ER/PgR-positive disease, activated Src kinase does not appear to be involved in &lt;i&gt;de novo&lt;/i&gt; endocrine resistance. Further study is required in ER-negative breast cancer as this may represent a cohort in which it is associated with poor outcome

A Multicellular Model of Intestinal Crypt Buckling and Fission

Crypt fission is an in vivo tissue deformation process that is involved in both intestinal homeostasis and colorectal tumourigenesis. Despite its importance, the mechanics underlying crypt fission are currently poorly understood. Recent experimental development of organoids, organ-like buds cultured from crypt stem cells in vitro, has shown promise in shedding light on crypt fission. Drawing inspiration from observations of organoid growth and fission in vivo, we develop a computational model of a deformable epithelial tissue layer. Results from in silico experiments show the stiffness of cells and the proportions of cell subpopulations affect the nature of deformation in the epithelial layer. In particular, we find that increasing the proportion of stiffer cells in the layer increases the likelihood of crypt fission occurring. This is in agreement with and helps explain recent experimental work

Performance of the CMS Cathode Strip Chambers with Cosmic Rays

The Cathode Strip Chambers (CSCs) constitute the primary muon tracking device in the CMS endcaps. Their performance has been evaluated using data taken during a cosmic ray run in fall 2008. Measured noise levels are low, with the number of noisy channels well below 1%. Coordinate resolution was measured for all types of chambers, and fall in the range 47 microns to 243 microns. The efficiencies for local charged track triggers, for hit and for segments reconstruction were measured, and are above 99%. The timing resolution per layer is approximately 5 ns

Minority ethnic students and science participation: a qualitative mapping of achievement, aspiration, interest and capital

In the UK, the ‘leaky pipeline’ metaphor has been used to describe the relationship between ethnicity and science participation. Fewer minority ethnic students continue with science in post-compulsory education, and little is known about the ways in which they participate and identify with science, particularly in the secondary school context. Drawing on an exploratory study of 46 interviews and 22 h of classroom observations with British students (aged 11–14) from Black Caribbean, Bangladeshi, Pakistani, Indian and Chinese ethnic backgrounds, this paper identified five ‘types’ of science participation among minority ethnic students. The five types of science participation emerged from an analysis of students’ science achievement, science aspiration, science interest and science capital. The characteristics of the five types are as follows: Science adverse students have no aspirations towards science and lacked interest, achievement and capital in science. Science intrinsic students have high science aspirations, interest and capital but low science attainment. Students who are science intermediate have some aspirations, interest and capital in science, with average science grades. Science extrinsic students achieve highly in science, have some science capital but lacked science aspirations and/or interest. Science prominent students are high science achievers with science aspirations, high levels of interest and capital in science. The findings highlight that minority ethnic students participate in science in diverse ways. Policy implications are suggested for each type as this paper provides empirical evidence to counter against public (and even some academic) discourses of minority ethnic students as a homogeneous group

Inquiry pedagogy to promote emerging proportional reasoning in primary students

Proportional reasoning as the capacity to compare situations in relative (multiplicative) rather than absolute (additive) terms is an important outcome of primary school mathematics. Research suggests that students tend to see comparative situations in additive rather than multiplicative terms and this thinking can influence their capacity for proportional reasoning in later years. In this paper, excerpts from a classroom case study of a fourth-grade classroom (students aged 9) are presented as they address an inquiry problem that required proportional reasoning. As the inquiry unfolded, students' additive strategies were progressively seen to shift to proportional thinking to enable them to answer the question that guided their inquiry. In wrestling with the challenges they encountered, their emerging proportional reasoning was supported by the inquiry model used to provide a structure, a classroom culture of inquiry and argumentation, and the proportionality embedded in the problem context

Effect of Information and Telephone-Guided Access to Community Support for People with Chronic Kidney Disease: Randomised Controlled Trial

Background: Implementation of self-management support in traditional primary care settings has proved difficult, encouraging the development of alternative models which actively link to community resources. Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a common condition usually diagnosed in the presence of other co-morbidities. This trial aimed to determine the effectiveness of an intervention to provide information and telephone-guided access to community support versus usual care for patients with stage 3 CKD. Methods and Findings: In a pragmatic, two-arm, patient level randomised controlled trial 436 patients with a diagnosis of stage 3 CKD were recruited from 24 general practices in Greater Manchester. Patients were randomised to intervention (215) or usual care (221). Primary outcome measures were health related quality of life (EQ-5D health questionnaire), blood pressure control, and positive and active engagement in life (heiQ) at 6 months. At 6 months, mean health related quality of life was significantly higher for the intervention group (adjusted mean difference = 0.05; 95% CI = 0.01, 0.08) and blood pressure was controlled for a significantly greater proportion of patients in the intervention group (adjusted odds ratio = 1.85; 95% CI = 1.25, 2.72). Patients did not differ significantly in positive and active engagement in life. The intervention group reported a reduction in costs compared with control. Conclusions: An intervention to provide tailored information and telephone-guided access to community resources was associated with modest but significant improvements in health related quality of life and better maintenance of blood pressure control for patients with stage 3 CKD compared with usual care. However, further research is required to identify the mechanisms of action of the intervention