Estimating the frequency of volcanic ash clouds over northern Europe

Fine ash produced during explosive volcanic eruptions can be dispersed over a vast area, where it poses a threat to aviation, human health and infrastructure. Here, we focus on northern Europe, which lies in the principal transport direction for volcanic ash from Iceland, one of the most active volcanic regions in the world. We interrogate existing and newly produced geological and written records of past ash fallout over northern Europe in the last 1000 years and estimate the mean return (repose) interval of a volcanic ash cloud over the region to be 44 ± 7 years. We compare tephra records from mainland northern Europe, Great Britain, Ireland and the Faroe Islands, with records of proximal Icelandic volcanism and suggest that an Icelandic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index rating (VEI) ≥ 4 and a silicic magma composition presents the greatest risk of producing volcanic ash that can reach northern Europe. None of the ash clouds in the European record which have a known source eruption are linked to a source eruption with VEI < 4. Our results suggest that ash clouds are more common over northern Europe than previously proposed and indicate the continued threat of ash deposition across northern Europe from eruptions of both Icelandic and North American volcanoes

Influenza classification from short reads with VAPOR facilitates robust mapping pipelines and zoonotic strain detection for routine surveillance applications

Motivation: Influenza viruses represent a global public health burden due to annual epidemics and pandemic potential. Due to a rapidly evolving RNA genome, inter-species transmission, intra-host variation, and noise in short-read data, reads can be lost during mapping, and de novo assembly can be time consuming and result in misassembly. We assessed read loss during mapping, and designed a graph-based classifier, VAPOR, for selecting mapping references, assembly validation, and detection of strains of non-human origin. Results: Standard human reference viruses were insufficient for mapping diverse influenza samples in simulation. VAPOR retrieved references for 257 real whole genome sequencing (WGS) samples with a mean of >99.8% identity to assemblies, and increased the proportion of mapped reads by up to 13.3% compared to standard references. VAPOR has the potential to improve the robustness of bioinformatics pipelines for surveillance and could be adapted to other RNA viruses

Humpback whale (Megaptera novaeangliae) distribution and movements in the vicinity of South Georgia and the South Sandwich Islands Marine Protected Area

Humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) are showing strong recovery from commercial whaling in the western South Atlantic. In this region, humpback whales migrate annually from their winter breeding grounds off the coast of Brazil to their summer feeding grounds near to the Polar Front, an area that includes the waters of South Georgia and the South Sandwich Islands (SGSSI). This latter region includes a Marine Protected Area (MPA), which has been developed to ensure sustainable management of fisheries, and protection of foraging predators. To date, management measures within the MPA have primarily been concerned with foraging predators that rely upon Antarctic krill, including for a number of previously over-exploited species. This includes the regional humpback whale population now in recovery in the western South Atlantic. With humpback whales increasing, understanding their spatiotemporal distribution within the MPA is important as it will help inform management particularly in respect of interactions between humpback whales and the regional fishery for Antarctic krill. Here we develop habitat models from the distribution and movement patterns of 16 individuals at their high-latitude feeding grounds, south of 50°S. We show that whale habitat use varies throughout the foraging period. Upon reaching their feeding ground, whales use the area to the east of the South Sandwich Islands, moving westward into the centre of the Scotia Arc and towards South Georgia during the high summer, and then expanding back towards the east in the winter. Based on these findings, we discuss the implications for the future, including necessary research required for underpinning management

Increased bone mineral density in Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians: Impact of body composition differences

Bone mineral density (BMD) has been reported to be both higher and lower in Indigenous women from different populations. Body composition data have been reported for Indigenous Australians, but there are few published BMD data in this population. We assessed BMD in 161 Indigenous Australians, identified as Aboriginal (n = 70), Torres Strait Islander (n = 68) or both (n = 23). BMD measurements were made on Norland-XR46 (n = 107) and Hologic (n = 90) dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) machines. Norland BMD and body composition measurements in these individuals, and also in 36 Caucasian Australians, were converted to equivalent Hologic BMD (BMDH) and body composition measurements for comparison

Guided play and free play in an enriched environment: impact on motor development

The purpose of this study was to investigate the effects of guided play and free play in an enriched environment intervention programs using motor skill development in kindergarten children. Seventy-one children attending kindergarten classes were assigned to two experimental groups and one control group. Participants performed the Test of Gross Motor Development-2 before and after the intervention period. Results revealed that both boys and girls in the guided play group showed motor skill improvement, whereas no changes were observed in motor development in the boys and girls assigned to the free play in enriched environment group, nor in those in the control group. These findings indicate that the teacher’s role in the guided play intervention was crucial to help preschool children to improve their performance.CIEC – Research Centre on Child Studies, UM (FCT R&D 317

Theories of American Imperialism: A Critical Evaluation

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/68828/2/10.1177_048661347400600303.pd

Relational quality and media use in interpersonal relationships

Author final draft doi:10.1177/1461444807080339This study examined the relationship between relational quality and media use in interpersonal relationships. In addition, the impacts of other potentially important variables such as sex and relationship type of participants and their partners were explored. College student participants focused on interaction experiences with an acquaintance, friend, romantic partner, or family member. Questions addressed the sex of relational partners, how much of participants’ total communication with relational partners is conducted in each of three media (i.e., face-to-face, phone, and internet), and the quality of relationships. Results indicated that participant sex and partner sex did not affect reported media use, whereas relationship type had significant effects on the extent to which face-to-face and telephone communication were used. Specifically, among the college students studied, face-to-face communication was used least with family members and the telephone was used most with family members. Relationships with acquaintances had the lowest relational quality and romantic relationships, while closer, were less satisfying than either family or friendship relationships. Same-sex relationships were perceived as more satisfying than cross-sex relationships. Finally, media use did not predict relational closeness or satisfaction. Results are discussed in light of previous research on mediated interpersonal communication and conceptualizations of the role of communication technology in one’s social life are highlighted

Natriuretic peptides and integrated risk assessment for cardiovascular disease: an individual-participant-data meta-analysis

BACKGROUND: Guidelines for primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases focus on prediction of coronary heart disease and stroke. We assessed whether or not measurement of N-terminal-pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) concentration could enable a more integrated approach than at present by predicting heart failure and enhancing coronary heart disease and stroke risk assessment. METHODS: In this individual-participant-data meta-analysis, we generated and harmonised individual-participant data from relevant prospective studies via both de-novo NT-proBNP concentration measurement of stored samples and collection of data from studies identified through a systematic search of the literature (PubMed, Scientific Citation Index Expanded, and Embase) for articles published up to Sept 4, 2014, using search terms related to natriuretic peptide family members and the primary outcomes, with no language restrictions. We calculated risk ratios and measures of risk discrimination and reclassification across predicted 10 year risk categories (ie, <5%, 5% to <7·5%, and ≥7·5%), adding assessment of NT-proBNP concentration to that of conventional risk factors (ie, age, sex, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, history of diabetes, and total and HDL cholesterol concentrations). Primary outcomes were the combination of coronary heart disease and stroke, and the combination of coronary heart disease, stroke, and heart failure. FINDINGS: We recorded 5500 coronary heart disease, 4002 stroke, and 2212 heart failure outcomes among 95 617 participants without a history of cardiovascular disease in 40 prospective studies. Risk ratios (for a comparison of the top third vs bottom third of NT-proBNP concentrations, adjusted for conventional risk factors) were 1·76 (95% CI 1·56-1·98) for the combination of coronary heart disease and stroke and 2·00 (1·77-2·26) for the combination of coronary heart disease, stroke, and heart failure. Addition of information about NT-proBNP concentration to a model containing conventional risk factors was associated with a C-index increase of 0·012 (0·010-0·014) and a net reclassification improvement of 0·027 (0·019-0·036) for the combination of coronary heart disease and stroke and a C-index increase of 0·019 (0·016-0·022) and a net reclassification improvement of 0·028 (0·019-0·038) for the combination of coronary heart disease, stroke, and heart failure. INTERPRETATION: In people without baseline cardiovascular disease, NT-proBNP concentration assessment strongly predicted first-onset heart failure and augmented coronary heart disease and stroke prediction, suggesting that NT-proBNP concentration assessment could be used to integrate heart failure into cardiovascular disease primary prevention. FUNDING: British Heart Foundation, Austrian Science Fund, UK Medical Research Council, National Institute for Health Research, European Research Council, and European Commission Framework Programme 7

Food Consumption and its Impact on Cardiovascular Disease: Importance of Solutions Focused on the Globalized Food System A Report From the Workshop Convened by the World Heart Federation

Major scholars in the field, based on a 3-day consensus, created an in-depth review of current knowledge on the role of diet in CVD, the changing global food system and global dietary patterns, and potential policy solutions. Evidence from different countries, age/race/ethnicity/socioeconomic groups suggest the health effects studies of foods, macronutrients, and dietary patterns on CVD appear to be far more consistent though regional knowledge gaps are highlighted. There are large gaps in knowledge about the association of macronutrients to CVD in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC), particularly linked with dietary patterns are reviewed. Our understanding of foods and macronutrients in relationship to CVD is broadly clear; however major gaps exist both in dietary pattern research and ways to change diets and food systems. Based on the current evidence, the traditional Mediterranean-type diet, including plant foods/emphasizing plant protein sources, provides a well-tested healthy dietary pattern to reduce CV