Forcing and response in simulated 20th and 21st century surface energy and precipitation trends

A simple methodology is applied to a transient integration of the Met Office Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model version1 (UKMO-HadGEM1) fully coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model in order to separate forcing from climate response in simulated 20th century and future global mean surface energy and precipitation trends. Forcings include any fast responses that are caused by the forcing agent and that are independent of global temperature change. Results reveal that surface radiative forcing is dominated by shortwave forcing over the 20th and 21st centuries, which is strongly negative. However, when fast responses of surface turbulent heat fluxes are separated from climate feedbacks, and included in the forcing, net surface forcing becomes positive. The nonradiative forcings are the result of rapid surface and tropospheric adjustments and impact 20th century, as well as future, evaporation and precipitation trends. A comparison of energy balance changes in eight different climate models finds that all models exhibit a positive surface energy imbalance by the late 20th century. However, there is considerable disagreement in how this imbalance is partitioned between the longwave, shortwave, latent heat and sensible heat fluxes. In particular, all models show reductions in shortwave radiation absorbed at the surface by the late 20th century compared to the pre-industrial control state, but the spread of this reduction leads to differences in the sign of their latent heat flux changes and thus in the sign of their hydrological responses

Cardiopulmonary exercise testing during follow-up after acute pulmonary embolism

BACKGROUND Cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET) may provide prognostically valuable information during follow-up after pulmonary embolism (PE). Our objective was to investigate the association of patterns and degree of exercise limitation, as assessed by CPET, with clinical, echocardiographic and laboratory abnormalities and quality of life (QoL) after PE. METHODS In a prospective cohort study of unselected consecutive all-comers with PE, survivors of the index acute event underwent 3- and 12-month follow-ups, including CPET. We defined cardiopulmonary limitation as ventilatory inefficiency or insufficient cardiocirculatory reserve. Deconditioning was defined as peak O$_{2}$ uptake (V'$_{O_{2}}$ ) <80% with no other abnormality. RESULTS Overall, 396 patients were included. At 3 months, prevalence of cardiopulmonary limitation and deconditioning was 50.1% (34.7% mild/moderate; 15.4% severe) and 12.1%, respectively; at 12 months, it was 44.8% (29.1% mild/moderate; 15.7% severe) and 14.9%, respectively. Cardiopulmonary limitation and its severity were associated with age (OR per decade 2.05, 95% CI 1.65-2.55), history of chronic lung disease (OR 2.72, 95% CI 1.06-6.97), smoking (OR 5.87, 95% CI 2.44-14.15) and intermediate- or high-risk acute PE (OR 4.36, 95% CI 1.92-9.94). Severe cardiopulmonary limitation at 3 months was associated with the prospectively defined, combined clinical-haemodynamic end-point of "post-PE impairment" (OR 6.40, 95% CI 2.35-18.45) and with poor disease-specific and generic health-related QoL. CONCLUSIONS Abnormal exercise capacity of cardiopulmonary origin is frequent after PE, being associated with clinical and haemodynamic impairment as well as long-term QoL reduction. CPET can be considered for selected patients with persisting symptoms after acute PE to identify candidates for closer follow-up and possible therapeutic interventions

Nanomolar inhibition of SARS-CoV-2 infection by an unmodified peptide targeting the prehairpin intermediate of the spike protein

Publisher Copyright: © 2022 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.Variants of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) challenge currently available coronavirus disease 2019 vaccines and monoclonal antibody therapies through epitope change on the receptor binding domain of the viral spike glycoprotein. Hence, there is a specific urgent need for alternative antivirals that target processes less likely to be affected by mutation, such as the membrane fusion step of viral entry into the host cell. One such antiviral class includes peptide inhibitors, which block formation of the so-called heptad repeat 1 and 2 (HR1HR2) six-helix bundle of the SARS-CoV-2 spike (S) protein and thus interfere with viral membrane fusion. We performed structural studies of the HR1HR2 bundle, revealing an extended, well-folded N-terminal region of HR2 that interacts with the HR1 triple helix. Based on this structure, we designed an extended HR2 peptide that achieves single-digit nanomolar inhibition of SARS-CoV-2 in cell-based and virus-based assays without the need for modifications such as lipidation or chemical stapling. The peptide also strongly inhibits all major SARS-CoV-2 variants to date. This extended peptide is ∼100-fold more potent than all previously published short, unmodified HR2 peptides, and it has a very long inhibition lifetime after washout in virus infection assays, suggesting that it targets a prehairpin intermediate of the SARS-CoV-2 S protein. Together, these results suggest that regions outside the HR2 helical region may offer new opportunities for potent peptide-derived therapeutics for SARS-CoV-2 and its variants, and even more distantly related viruses, and provide further support for the prehairpin intermediate of the S protein.Peer reviewe

Challenges in quantifying changes in the global water cycle

Human influences have likely already impacted the large-scale water cycle but natural variability and observational uncertainty are substantial. It is essential to maintain and improve observational capabilities to better characterize changes. Understanding observed changes to the global water cycle is key to predicting future climate changes and their impacts. While many datasets document crucial variables such as precipitation, ocean salinity, runoff, and humidity, most are uncertain for determining long-term changes. In situ networks provide long time-series over land but are sparse in many regions, particularly the tropics. Satellite and reanalysis datasets provide global coverage, but their long-term stability is lacking. However, comparisons of changes among related variables can give insights into the robustness of observed changes. For example, ocean salinity, interpreted with an understanding of ocean processes, can help cross-validate precipitation. Observational evidence for human influences on the water cycle is emerging, but uncertainties resulting from internal variability and observational errors are too large to determine whether the observed and simulated changes are consistent. Improvements to the in situ and satellite observing networks that monitor the changing water cycle are required, yet continued data coverage is threatened by funding reductions. Uncertainty both in the role of anthropogenic aerosols, and due to large climate variability presently limits confidence in attribution of observed changes

Causes of Robust Seasonal Land Precipitation Changes

Historical simulations from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) archive are used to calculate the zonal-mean change in seasonal land precipitation for the second half of the twentieth century in response to a range of external forcings, including anthropogenic and natural forcings combined (ALL), greenhouse gas forcing, anthropogenic aerosol forcing, anthropogenic forcings combined, and natural forcing. These simulated patterns of change are used as fingerprints in a detection and attribution study applied to four different gridded observational datasets of global land precipitation from 1951 to 2005. There are large differences in the spatial and temporal coverage in the observational datasets. Yet despite these differences, the zonal-mean patterns of change are mostly consistent except at latitudes where spatial coverage is limited. The results show some differences between datasets, but the influence of external forcings is robustly detected in March-May, December-February, and for annual changes for the three datasets more suitable for studying changes. For June-August and September-November, external forcing is only detected for the dataset that includes only long-term stations. Fingerprints for combinations of forcings that include the effect of greenhouse gases are similarly detectable to those for ALL forcings, suggesting that greenhouse gas influence drives the detectable features of the ALL forcing fingerprint. Fingerprints of only natural or only anthropogenic aerosol forcing are not detected. This, together with two-fingerprint results, suggests that at least some of the detected change in zonal land precipitation can be attributed to human influences

Early warning signals of simulated Amazon rainforest dieback

Copyright © The Author(s) 2013. This article is published with open access at Springerlink.comWe test proposed generic tipping point early warning signals in a complex climate model (HadCM3) which simulates future dieback of the Amazon rainforest. The equation governing tree cover in the model suggests that zero and non-zero stable states of tree cover co-exist, and a transcritical bifurcation is approached as productivity declines. Forest dieback is a non-linear change in the non-zero tree cover state, as productivity declines, which should exhibit critical slowing down. We use an ensemble of versions of HadCM3 to test for the corresponding early warning signals. However, on approaching simulated Amazon dieback, expected early warning signals of critical slowing down are not seen in tree cover, vegetation carbon or net primary productivity. The lack of a convincing trend in autocorrelation appears to be a result of the system being forced rapidly and non-linearly. There is a robust rise in variance with time, but this can be explained by increases in inter-annual temperature and precipitation variability that force the forest. This failure of generic early warning indicators led us to seek more system-specific, observable indicators of changing forest stability in the model. The sensitivity of net ecosystem productivity to temperature anomalies (a negative correlation) generally increases as dieback approaches, which is attributable to a non-linear sensitivity of ecosystem respiration to temperature. As a result, the sensitivity of atmospheric CO2 anomalies to temperature anomalies (a positive correlation) increases as dieback approaches. This stability indicator has the benefit of being readily observable in the real world.NERCJoint DECC/Defra Met Office Hadley Centre Climate ProgrammeUniversity of Exete

Trapping \u3ci\u3ePhyllophaga \u3c/i\u3espp. (Coleoptera: Scarabaeidae: Melolonthinae) in the United States and Canada using sex attractants.

The sex pheromone of the scarab beetle, Phyllophaga anxia, is a blend of the methyl esters of two amino acids, L-valine and L-isoleucine. A field trapping study was conducted, deploying different blends of the two compounds at 59 locations in the United States and Canada. More than 57,000 males of 61 Phyllophaga species (Coleoptera: Scarabaeidae: Melolonthinae) were captured and identified. Three major findings included: (1) widespread use of the two compounds [of the 147 Phyllophaga (sensu stricto) species found in the United States and Canada, males of nearly 40% were captured]; (2) in most species intraspecific male response to the pheromone blends was stable between years and over geography; and (3) an unusual pheromone polymorphism was described from P. anxia. Populations at some locations were captured with L-valine methyl ester alone, whereas populations at other locations were captured with L-isoleucine methyl ester alone. At additional locations, the L-valine methyl ester-responding populations and the L-isoleucine methyl ester-responding populations were both present, producing a bimodal capture curve. In southeastern Massachusetts and in Rhode Island, in the United States, P. anxia males were captured with blends of L-valine methyl ester and L-isoleucine methyl ester

MyD88 Is Required for Protection from Lethal Infection with a Mouse-Adapted SARS-CoV

A novel human coronavirus, SARS-CoV, emerged suddenly in 2003, causing approximately 8000 human cases and more than 700 deaths worldwide. Since most animal models fail to faithfully recapitulate the clinical course of SARS-CoV in humans, the virus and host factors that mediate disease pathogenesis remain unclear. Recently, our laboratory and others developed a recombinant mouse-adapted SARS-CoV (rMA15) that was lethal in BALB/c mice. In contrast, intranasal infection of young 10-week-old C57BL/6 mice with rMA15 results in a nonlethal infection characterized by high titer replication within the lungs, lung inflammation, destruction of lung tissue, and loss of body weight, thus providing a useful model to identify host mediators of protection. Here, we report that mice deficient in MyD88 (MyD88−/−), an adapter protein that mediates Toll-like receptor (TLR), IL-1R, and IL-18R signaling, are far more susceptible to rMA15 infection. The genetic absence of MyD88 resulted in enhanced pulmonary pathology and greater than 90% mortality by day 6 post-infection. MyD88−/− mice had significantly higher viral loads in lung tissue throughout the course of infection. Despite increased viral loads, the expression of multiple proinflammatory cytokines and chemokines within lung tissue and recruitment of inflammatory monocytes/macrophages to the lung was severely impaired in MyD88−/− mice compared to wild-type mice. Furthermore, mice deficient in chemokine receptors that contribute to monocyte recruitment to the lung were more susceptible to rMA15-induced disease and exhibited severe lung pathology similar to that seen in MyD88−/−mice. These data suggest that MyD88-mediated innate immune signaling and inflammatory cell recruitment to the lung are required for protection from lethal rMA15 infection