Modelo de procura de transporte público em autocarro para territórios de baixa densidade populacional

Dissertação de mestrado integrado em Engenharia CivilOs territórios de baixa densidade são atualmente alvo de particular atenção em vários domínios do desenvolvimento territorial, económico e social de regiões e países, nomeadamente no setor da mobilidade e transportes, como é o caso de Portugal. A compreensão dos principais fatores que influenciam a procura de transporte público em autocarro para os territórios de baixa densidade em Portugal Continental, bem como o desenvolvimento do modelo que permita estimar o número de viagens em autocarro geradas nesses territórios assume particular interesse no processo de planeamento de transportes à luz da entrada em vigor em Portugal da Lei nº 52/2015. Deste modo, nesta dissertação é apresentado um modelo de regressão linear múltipla que sustenta a análise e possibilita a estimação da procura em função de variáveis sócio-económicas e demográficas. Para desenvolver este modelo foi usado a ferramenra estatística SPSS (Statiscal Package for the Social Sciences). Com base na pesquisa bibliográfica selecionaram-se 11 variáveis que potencialmente terão influência na procura de transporte público por autocarro, tendo sido apenas utilizadas 6 dessas variaveis dada a disponibilidade de informação existente para os muncipios portugueses. Em Portugal estão classificados 165 municípios como territórios de baixa densidade que servirão de base para calibrar e validar o modelo encontrado, tendo por base a informação existente nos Censos 2011 do Instituto estatístico nacional (INE). O modelo de procura de transporte em autocarro para os municípios de baixa densidade é caracterizado pelas seguintes variaveis explicativas: número de pessoas sem nível de escolaridade, densidade populacional e o poder de compra. O ajuste para o modelo encontrado foi de 87%, tendo sido determinado por amostra de 114 municipios, já que outros municípios foram retirados por serem considerados outliers, observações influentes ou, então, utilizados para a respetiva validação. Do processo de validação foi possível constatar que o modelo apresentou um bom ajuste à realidade com cerca de 80% dos resultadso para os municípios a apresentarem um erro inferior ao 50%, ou seja, o modelo apresenta uma boa explicação da variável do número de viagens para o transporte público.Low-density regions are currently receiving special attention in various areas of territorial, economic, and social development in regions and countries, particularly in the mobility and transport sector, such as Portugal. The understanding of the main factors influencing the demand for public bus transportation to the low-density areas in Portugal, as well as the development of the model that allows estimating the number of bus trips generated in these territories takes a special interest in the planning process. transport considering the entry into force in Portugal of Law 52/2015. Thus, this thesis presents a multiple linear regression model that supports the analysis and enables the estimation of demand as a function of socio-economic and demographic variables. To develop this model was used the statistical tool SPSS (Statistical Package for the Social Sciences). Based on the research, eleven variables were selected that will potentially influence the demand for public transportation by bus, with only six of these variables being used given the availability of information for the Portuguese municipalities. In Portugal, 165 municipalities are classified as low-density territories that will serve as a basis for calibrating and validating the model found, based on the information existing in the 2011 National Statistics Institute (INE) Census. The bus transportation demand model for low density municipalities is characterized by the following explanatory variables: number of people without education level, population density and purchasing power. The adjustment for the model found was 87%, and was determined by a sample of 114 municipalities, since other municipalities were withdrawn because they were considered outliers, influential observations or, then, used for their validation. From the validation process it was possible to verify that the model presented a good adjustment to the reality with about 80% of the results for the municipalities presenting an error lower than 50%, that is, the model presents a good explanation of the variable of the number of trips for public transport

Pedestrian–vehicle interaction at unsignalized crosswalks: a systematic review

A systematic review was conducted following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA), to generate a document that supports the development of future research, compiling the various studies focused on the analysis of the pedestrian-vehicle interaction at unsignalized crosswalks. Firstly, 381 studies were identified by applying the search protocol in the database sources; however, only nine studies were included in this review because most of the studies are not focused on this type of crosswalks or have not considered the micro-simulation perspective. For each study, an analysis of the used methodology for data collection was carried out, in addition to what type of model it was applied, including the variables that represent the PVI (Pedestrian-Vehicle Interaction). The outcomes obtained by this systematic review show that although the video camera observation technique is the most used, it is possible to complement them with other tools to add specific field information. Additionally, variables such as the adjacent yields, speed variables vehicles, pedestrian attitude, and the number of pedestrians waiting at the crossing were those most used in the cellular automata model or micro-simulation, which are the commonly developed models to simulate this interaction.This research was funded by “Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia”, through the project AnPeB–Pedestrian behavior analysis based on simulated environments and their incorporation into risk modeling (PTDC/ECMTRA/3568/2014)

Análise exploratória dos conflitos veiculo-peão com recurso à micro simulação

O presente trabalho realiza um análise exploratório dos conflitos entre peões e veículos num atravessamento sem sinalização luminosa, usando o indicador proxy de segurança TTC (time to collision) como parâmetro principal para a comparação dos resultados dos conflitos observados in situ e os modelados. Foi usado o software de simulação microscópica (VISSIM) e software SSAM (Surrogate Safety Assessment model). Para obter a informação no local do comportamento do condutor e o peão antes, durante e depois do atravessamento, usou-se a técnica de observação, a qual consistiu nas filmagens com vídeo camara durante às horas pontas do dia (2 horas). Esta informação foi processada com ajuda do software Traffic Intelligence para obtenção das trajetórias e velocidades das entidades (peão e veículo) tendo como objetivo o cálculo do TTC observado. Não foi feita uma calibração para o modelo em VISSIM, mas foram usados parâmetros calibrados de outros estudos que apresentaram similitudes nas condições do fluxo veicular, pedonais e geométricas com o local em estudo. Para analisar adaptação dos parâmetros foi usado o índice GEH para verificar que os resultados do modelo estivessem dentro do limiar adequado de aceitação de resultados (menor a 10%, de acordo com a literatura). Apesar da diferença entre o TTC modelado (determinado pelo SSAM) e o observado a qual foi de 54%, este trabalho fornece uma base metodológica para a determinação dos conflitos peão-veículo

Análise exploratória dos conflitos veículo-peão com recurso à micro simulação

O presente trabalho realiza uma análise exploratório dos conflitos entre peões e veículos num atravessamento sem sinalização luminosa, usando o indicador proxy de segurança TTC (time to collision) como parâmetro principal para a comparação dos resultados dos conflitos observados in situ e os modelados. Foi usado o software de simulação microscópica (VISSIM) e software SSAM (Surrogate Safety Assessment model). Para obter a informação no local do comportamento do condutor e o peão antes, durante e depois do atravessamento, usou-se a técnica de observação, a qual consistiu nas filmagens com vídeo camara durante às horas pontas do dia (2 horas). Esta informação foi processada com ajuda do software Traffic Intelligence para obtenção das trajetórias e velocidades das entidades (peão e veículo) tendo como objetivo o cálculo do TTC observado. Não foi feita uma calibração para o modelo em VISSIM, mas foram usados parâmetros calibrados de outros estudos que apresentaram similitudes nas condições do fluxo veicular, pedonais e geométricas com o local em estudo. Para analisar adaptação dos parâmetros foi usado o índice GEH para verificar que os resultados do modelo estivessem dentro do limiar adequado de aceitação de resultados (menor a 10%, de acordo com a literatura). Apesar da diferença entre o TTC modelado (determinado pelo SSAM) e o observado a qual foi de 54%, este trabalho fornece uma base metodológica para a determinação dos conflitos peão-veículo.(PTDC/ECMTRA/3568/2014), financiado por fundos nacionais através da FCT e cofinanciado pelo Fundo Europeu de Desenvolvimento Regional através do Programa Operacional Competitividade e Internacionalização (POCI), e da bolsa de doutoramento SFRH/BD/131638/2017 financiada pela FC

Identifying the interacting roles of stressors in driving the global loss of canopy-forming to mat-forming algae in marine ecosystems

Identifying the type and strength of interactions between local anthropogenic and other stressors can help to set achievable management targets for degraded marine ecosystems and support their resilience by identifying local actions. We undertook a meta-analysis, using data from 118 studies to test the hypothesis that ongoing global declines in the dominant habitat along temperate rocky coastlines, forests of canopy-forming algae and/or their replacement by mat-forming algae are driven by the nonadditive interactions between local anthropogenic stressors that can be addressed through management actions (fishing, heavy metal pollution, nutrient enrichment and high sediment loads) and other stressors (presence of competitors or grazers, removal of canopy algae, limiting or excessive light, low or high salinity, increasing temperature, high wave exposure and high UV or CO2), not as easily amenable to management actions. In general, the cumulative effects of local anthropogenic and other stressors had negative effects on the growth and survival of canopy-forming algae. Conversely, the growth or survival of mat-forming algae was either unaffected or significantly enhanced by the same pairs of stressors. Contrary to our predictions, the majority of interactions between stressors were additive. There were however synergistic interactions between nutrient enrichment and heavy metals, the presence of competitors, low light and increasing temperature, leading to amplified negative effects on canopy-forming algae. There were also synergistic interactions between nutrient enrichment and increasing CO2 and temperature leading to amplified positive effects on mat-forming algae. Our review of the current literature shows that management of nutrient levels, rather than fishing, heavy metal pollution or high sediment loads, would provide the greatest opportunity for preventing the shift from canopy to mat-forming algae, particularly in enclosed bays or estuaries because of the higher prevalence of synergistic interactions between nutrient enrichment with other local and global stressors, and as such it should be prioritized

Impact of genetic ancestry and sociodemographic status on the clinical expression of systemic lupus erythematosus in American Indian-European populations

Objective American Indian-Europeans, Asians, and African Americans have an excess morbidity from systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) and a higher prevalence of lupus nephritis than do Caucasians. The aim of this study was to analyze the relationship between genetic ancestry and sociodemographic characteristics and clinical features in a large cohort of American Indian-European SLE patients. Methods A total of 2,116 SLE patients of American Indian-European origin and 4,001 SLE patients of European descent for whom we had clinical data were included in the study. Genotyping of 253 continental ancestry-informative markers was performed on the Illumina platform. Structure and Admixture software were used to determine genetic ancestry proportions of each individual. Logistic regression was used to test the association between genetic ancestry and sociodemographic and clinical characteristics. Odds ratios (ORs) were calculated with 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs). Results The average American Indian genetic ancestry of 2,116 SLE patients was 40.7%. American Indian genetic ancestry conferred increased risks of renal involvement (P less than 0.0001, OR 3.50 [95% CI 2.63- 4.63]) and early age at onset (P less than 0.0001). American Indian ancestry protected against photosensitivity (P less than 0.0001, OR 0.58 [95% CI 0.44-0.76]), oral ulcers (P less than 0.0001, OR 0.55 [95% CI 0.42-0.72]), and serositis (P less than 0.0001, OR 0.56 [95% CI 0.41-0.75]) after adjustment for age, sex, and age at onset. However, age and sex had stronger effects than genetic ancestry on malar rash, discoid rash, arthritis, and neurologic involvement. Conclusion In general, American Indian genetic ancestry correlates with lower sociodemographic status and increases the risk of developing renal involvement and SLE at an earlier age. Copyright © 2012 by the American College of Rheumatology

Impact of genetic ancestry and sociodemographic status on the clinical expression of systemic lupus erythematosus in American Indian-European populations

Objective American Indian-Europeans, Asians, and African Americans have an excess morbidity from systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) and a higher prevalence of lupus nephritis than do Caucasians. The aim of this study was to analyze the relationship between genetic ancestry and sociodemographic characteristics and clinical features in a large cohort of American Indian-European SLE patients. Methods A total of 2,116 SLE patients of American Indian-European origin and 4,001 SLE patients of European descent for whom we had clinical data were included in the study. Genotyping of 253 continental ancestry-informative markers was performed on the Illumina platform. Structure and Admixture software were used to determine genetic ancestry proportions of each individual. Logistic regression was used to test the association between genetic ancestry and sociodemographic and clinical characteristics. Odds ratios (ORs) were calculated with 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs). Results The average American Indian genetic ancestry of 2,116 SLE patients was 40.7%. American Indian genetic ancestry conferred increased risks of renal involvement (P less than 0.0001, OR 3.50 [95% CI 2.63- 4.63]) and early age at onset (P less than 0.0001). American Indian ancestry protected against photosensitivity (P less than 0.0001, OR 0.58 [95% CI 0.44-0.76]), oral ulcers (P less than 0.0001, OR 0.55 [95% CI 0.42-0.72]), and serositis (P less than 0.0001, OR 0.56 [95% CI 0.41-0.75]) after adjustment for age, sex, and age at onset. However, age and sex had stronger effects than genetic ancestry on malar rash, discoid rash, arthritis, and neurologic involvement. Conclusion In general, American Indian genetic ancestry correlates with lower sociodemographic status and increases the risk of developing renal involvement and SLE at an earlier age. Copyright © 2012 by the American College of Rheumatology

Impact of genetic ancestry and sociodemographic status on the clinical expression of systemic lupus erythematosus in American Indian-European populations

Artículo de publicación ISIObjective American Indian-Europeans, Asians, and African Americans have an excess morbidity from systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) and a higher prevalence of lupus nephritis than do Caucasians. The aim of this study was to analyze the relationship between genetic ancestry and sociodemographic characteristics and clinical features in a large cohort of American Indian-European SLE patients. Methods A total of 2,116 SLE patients of American Indian-European origin and 4,001 SLE patients of European descent for whom we had clinical data were included in the study. Genotyping of 253 continental ancestry-informative markers was performed on the Illumina platform. Structure and Admixture software were used to determine genetic ancestry proportions of each individual. Logistic regression was used to test the association between genetic ancestry and sociodemographic and clinical characteristics. Odds ratios (ORs) were calculated with 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs). Results The average American Indian genetic ancestry of 2,116 SLE patients was 40.7%. American Indian genetic ancestry conferred increased risks of renal involvement (P < 0.0001, OR 3.50 [95% CI 2.63- 4.63]) and early age at onset (P < 0.0001). American Indian ancestry protected against photosensitivity (P < 0.0001, OR 0.58 [95% CI 0.44-0.76]), oral ulcers (P < 0.0001, OR 0.55 [95% CI 0.42-0.72]), and serositis (P < 0.0001, OR 0.56 [95% CI 0.41-0.75]) after adjustment for age, sex, and age at onset. However, age and sex had stronger effects than genetic ancestry on malar rash, discoid rash, arthritis, and neurologic involvement. Conclusion In general, American Indian genetic ancestry correlates with lower sociodemographic status and increases the risk of developing renal involvement and SLE at an earlier age.NIH P01-AR-49084 P60-AR-053308 R01-AR-052300 R21-AI-070304 K24-AR-002138 P60 2-AR-30692 UL1-RR-025741 P30-AR-053483 P30-RR-031152 P01-AI-083194 AR-43727 American Recovery and Reinvestment Act grant AR-058621 Centers of Biomedical Research Excellence (COBRE) grant 8 P20-GM-103456-09 National Center for Research Resources UL1-RR-025005 Alliance for Lupus Research Kirkland Scholar Award Federico Wilhelm Agricola Foundatio