Pinatubo eruption winter climate effects: Model versus observations

Large volcanic eruptions, in addition to the well-known effect of producing global cooling for a year or two, have been observed to produce shorter-term responses in the climate system involving non-linear dynamical processes. In this paper, we use the ECHAM2 general circulation model forced with stratospheric aerosols to test some of these ideas. Run in a perpetual-January mode, with tropical stratospheric heating from the volcanic aerosols typical of the 1982 El Chichon eruption or the 1991 Pinatubo eruption, we find a dynamical response with an increased polar night jet in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and stronger zonal winds which extended down into the troposphere. The Azores High shifts northward with increased tropospheric westerlies at 60N and increased easterlies at 30N. Surface temperatures are higher both in northern Eurasia and North America, in agreement with observations for the NH winters or 1982-83 and 1991-92 as well as the winters following the other 10 largest volcanic eruptions since 1883

On the rationality of the moduli space of L\"uroth quartics

We prove that the moduli space M_L of L"uroth quartics in P^2, i.e. the space of quartics which can be circumscribed around a complete pentagon of lines modulo the action of PGL_3(CC) is rational, as is the related moduli space of Bateman seven-tuples of points in P^2.Comment: 7 page

Rationality of quotients by linear actions of affine groups

Let G be the (special) affine group, semidirect product of SL_n and C^n. In this paper we study the representation theory of G and in particular the question of rationality for V/G where V is a generically free G-representation. We show that the answer to this question is positive if the dimension of V is sufficiently large and V is indecomposable. We have a more precise theorem if V is a two-step extension 0 -> S -> V -> Q -> 0 with S, Q completely reducible.Comment: 18 pages; dedicated to Fabrizio Catanese on the occasion of his 60th birthda

A decadally delayed response of the tropical Pacific to Atlantic multidecadal variability

North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies are known to affect tropical Pacific climate variability and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) through thermocline adjustment in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Here coupled climate simulations featuring repeated idealized cycles of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) generated by nudging its tropical branch demonstrate that the tropical Pacific response to the AMO also entails a substantial decadally delayed component. The simulations robustly show multidecadal fluctuations in central equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures lagging the AMO by about three decades and a subdecadal cold-to-warm transition of the tropical Pacific mean state during the AMO's cooling phase. The interplay between out-of-phase responses of seawater temperature and salinity in the western Pacific and associated density anomalies in local thermocline waters emerge as crucial factors of remotely driven multidecadal variations of the equatorial Pacific climate. The delayed AMO influences on tropical Pacific dynamics could help understanding past and future ENSO variability.North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies are known to affect tropical Pacific climate variability and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) through thermocline adjustment in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Here coupled climate simulations featuring repeated idealized cycles of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) generated by nudging its tropical branch demonstrate that the tropical Pacific response to the AMO also entails a substantial decadally delayed component. The simulations robustly show multidecadal fluctuations in central equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures lagging the AMO by about three decades and a subdecadal cold-to-warm transition of the tropical Pacific mean state during the AMO's cooling phase. The interplay between out-of-phase responses of seawater temperature and salinity in the western Pacific and associated density anomalies in local thermocline waters emerge as crucial factors of remotely driven multidecadal variations of the equatorial Pacific climate. The delayed AMO influences on tropical Pacific dynamics could help understanding past and future ENSO variability. © 2016. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved

Tambora 1815 as a test case for high impact volcanic eruptions: Earth system effects

The eruption of Tambora (Indonesia) in April 1815 had substantial effects on global climate and led to the ‘Year Without a Summer’ of 1816 in Europe and North America. Although a tragic event—tens of thousands of people lost their lives—the eruption also was an ‘experiment of nature’ from which science has learned until today. The aim of this study is to summarize our current understanding of the Tambora eruption and its effects on climate as expressed in early instrumental observations, climate proxies and geological evidence, climate reconstructions, and model simulations. Progress has been made with respect to our understanding of the eruption process and estimated amount of SO2 injected into the atmosphere, although large uncertainties still exist with respect to altitude and hemispheric distribution of Tambora aerosols. With respect to climate effects, the global and Northern Hemispheric cooling are well constrained by proxies whereas there is no strong signal in Southern Hemisphere proxies. Newly recovered early instrumental information for Western Europe and parts of North America, regions with particularly strong climate effects, allow Tambora's effect on the weather systems to be addressed. Climate models respond to prescribed Tambora-like forcing with a strengthening of the wintertime stratospheric polar vortex, global cooling and a slowdown of the water cycle, weakening of the summer monsoon circulations, a strengthening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, and a decrease of atmospheric CO2. Combining observations, climate proxies, and model simulations for the case of Tambora, a better understanding of climate processes has emerged

Rationality of the moduli spaces of plane curves of sufficiently large degree

We prove that the moduli space of plane curves of degree d is rational for all sufficiently large d.Comment: 18 pages; 1 figure; Macaulay2 scripts used can be found at http://www.uni-math.gwdg.de/bothmer/rationality/ or at the end of the latex source fil

Linear precision for toric surface patches

We classify the homogeneous polynomials in three variables whose toric polar linear system defines a Cremona transformation. This classification also includes, as a proper subset, the classification of toric surface patches from geometric modeling which have linear precision. Besides the well-known tensor product patches and B\'ezier triangles, we identify a family of toric patches with trapezoidal shape, each of which has linear precision. B\'ezier triangles and tensor product patches are special cases of trapezoidal patches

Atmospheric temperature responses to solar irradiance and geomagnetic activity

The relative effects of solar irradiance and geomagnetic activity on the atmospheric temperature anomalies (Ta) are examined from the monthly to interdecadal timescales. Geomagnetic Ap (Ap) signals are found primarily in the stratosphere, while the solar F10.7-cm radio flux (Fs) signals are found in both the stratosphere and troposphere. In the troposphere, 0.1–0.4 K increases in Ta are associated with Fs. Enhanced Fs signals are found when the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is westerly. In the extrapolar region of the stratosphere, 0.1–0.6 and 0.1–0.7 K increases in Ta are associated with solar irradiance and with geomagnetic activity, respectively. In this region, Fs signals are strengthened when either the QBO is easterly, or geomagnetic activity is high, while Ap signals are strengthened when either the QBO is westerly, or solar irradiance is high. High solar irradiance and geomagnetic activity tend to enhance each other's signatures either making the signals stronger and symmetric about the equator or extending the signals to broader areas, or both. Positive Ap signals dominate the middle Arctic stratosphere and are two to five times larger than those of Fs. When solar irradiance is low, the signature of Ap in Ta is asymmetric about the equator, with positive signals in the Arctic stratosphere and negative signals at midlatitudes of the NH stratosphere. Weaker stratospheric QBO signals are associated with high Ap and Fs, suggesting possible disturbances on the QBO. The signals of Ap and Fs are distinct from the positive temperature anomalies resulting from volcanic eruptions

Aerosol size confines climate response to volcanic super-eruptions

Extremely large volcanic eruptions have been linked to global climate change, biotic turnover, and, for the Younger Toba Tuff (YTT) eruption 74,000 years ago, near-extinction of modern humans. One of the largest uncertainties of the climate effects involves evolution and growth of aerosol particles. A huge atmospheric concentration of sulfate causes higher collision rates, larger particle sizes, and rapid fall out, which in turn greatly affects radiative feedbacks. We address this key process by incorporating the effects of aerosol microphysical processes into an Earth System Model. The temperature response is shorter (9–10 years) and three times weaker (−3.5 K at maximum globally) than estimated before, although cooling could still have reached −12 K in some midlatitude continental regions after one year. The smaller response, plus its geographic patchiness, suggests that most biota may have escaped threshold extinction pressures from the eruption

Training of Instrumentalists and Development of New Technologies on SOFIA

This white paper is submitted to the Astronomy and Astrophysics 2010 Decadal Survey (Astro2010)1 Committee on the State of the Profession to emphasize the potential of the Stratospheric Observatory for Infrared Astronomy (SOFIA) to contribute to the training of instrumentalists and observers, and to related technology developments. This potential goes beyond the primary mission of SOFIA, which is to carry out unique, high priority astronomical research. SOFIA is a Boeing 747SP aircraft with a 2.5 meter telescope. It will enable astronomical observations anywhere, any time, and at most wavelengths between 0.3 microns and 1.6 mm not accessible from ground-based observatories. These attributes, accruing from the mobility and flight altitude of SOFIA, guarantee a wealth of scientific return. Its instrument teams (nine in the first generation) and guest investigators will do suborbital astronomy in a shirt-sleeve environment. The project will invest $10M per year in science instrument development over a lifetime of 20 years. This, frequent flight opportunities, and operation that enables rapid changes of science instruments and hands-on in-flight access to the instruments, assure a unique and extensive potential - both for training young instrumentalists and for encouraging and deploying nascent technologies. Novel instruments covering optical, infrared, and submillimeter bands can be developed for and tested on SOFIA by their developers (including apprentices) for their own observations and for those of guest observers, to validate technologies and maximize observational effectiveness.Comment: 10 pages, no figures, White Paper for Astro 2010 Survey Committee on State of the Professio