New politics and old party persistence : party adaptation in Australia, Britain, and the United States

Over the past three decades the notion that western party-systems remain frozen has been challenged by the apparent onset of post-industrial trends which threaten the support base of old political parties. In particular, scholars rejecting the freezing proposition have identified a rise in aggregate electoral volatility, a decline in group voting loyalties and the emergence of a New Politics. This study argues that the party systems of Australia, Britain and the United States remain characterised by aggregate electoral stability, despite a weakening in the extent to which electoral choice is structured by long-term political predispositions. In addition long-term electoral stability has occurred despite considerable social and attitudinal changes with the potential to alter significantly the underlying balance of party support. Through the use of national election studies collected between the mid 1960s and early 1990s in each country, it is argued that the adaptive strategies of political parties represent an intervening variable in the extent to which societal change is translated into electoral change. The study concludes that the so-called dealigning trends, such as the decline of group voting loyalties and the emergence of a New Politics, are an outcome, in part, of the strategic decisionmaking of old party leaders seeking to preserve their party's long-term persistence. The extent to which parties succeed or fail is not a system determined factor, but rather an outcome of the ability of a party organisation to adapt to societal changes which threaten its traditional support base

Towards a smart community evaluation and implementation toolkit - low-cost mini-district predictive controls with flexible tariffs

The drive to decarbonise the grid through intermittent generation requires an increase in system flexibility. To achieve this all energy assets, regardless of size and location, need to be incentivised to contribute. For smaller and remote assets and microgrids, the ability to participate in the current third-party flexibility markets remains limited. A toolkit has therefore been developed to allow assessment for smaller systems to use standard flexible energy tariffs, orchestrated by a simple, independent locally-situated controller, to achieve financial benefits and assist grid balancing. The toolkit has demonstrated that significant savings are achievable for a small mini-district scheme. The integrated Python-based optimisation engine can be used on low-cost platforms, such as the Raspberry Pi, which indicates that the developed algorithms has the potential to orchestrate microgrids as part of an integrated control system

Daisyworld: a review

Daisyworld is a simple planetary model designed to show the long-term effects of coupling between life and its environment. Its original form was introduced by James Lovelock as a defense against criticism that his Gaia theory of the Earth as a self-regulating homeostatic system requires teleological control rather than being an emergent property. The central premise, that living organisms can have major effects on the climate system, is no longer controversial. The Daisyworld model has attracted considerable interest from the scientific community and has now established itself as a model independent of, but still related to, the Gaia theory. Used widely as both a teaching tool and as a basis for more complex studies of feedback systems, it has also become an important paradigm for the understanding of the role of biotic components when modeling the Earth system. This paper collects the accumulated knowledge from the study of Daisyworld and provides the reader with a concise account of its important properties. We emphasize the increasing amount of exact analytic work on Daisyworld and are able to bring together and summarize these results from different systems for the first time. We conclude by suggesting what a more general model of life-environment interaction should be based on

A novel methodology for macroscale, thermal characterization of carbon fiber-reinforced polymer for integrated aircraft electrical power systems

Carbon fiber-reinforced polymer (CFRP) is increasingly used for aero-structure applications due to their high strength-to-weight ratio. The integration of the on-board electrical power system (EPS) with CFRP is challenging due to the requirement to thermally and electrically isolate these systems to meet existing safety standards. By capturing the thermal characteristics of CFRP at a macro (component) scale for CFRP components, it is possible to understand, and design for, the increased integration of the EPS into CFRP aero-components. A significant challenge is to develop a macroscale characterization of CFRP, which is not only of an appropriate fidelity for compatibility with systems-level models of an EPS but also can be used to represent different geometries of CFRP components. This paper presents a novel methodology for capturing a transient, macroscale thermal characterization of CFRP with regard to component layup and geometry (thickness). The methodology uses experimentally derived thermal responses of specific resin and ply orientation CFRP samples to create a generalized relationship for the prediction of thermal transfer in other sample thicknesses of the same material type. This methodology can be used to characterize thermal gradients across CFRP components in aircraft EPS integration applications, ultimately informing the optimized integration of the EPS with CFRP

Use of Novel Strategies to Develop Guidelines for Management of Pyogenic Osteomyelitis in Adults: A WikiGuidelines Group Consensus Statement.

Importance Traditional approaches to practice guidelines frequently result in dissociation between strength of recommendation and quality of evidence. Objective To construct a clinical guideline for pyogenic osteomyelitis management, with a new standard of evidence to resolve the gap between strength of recommendation and quality of evidence, through the use of a novel open access approach utilizing social media tools. Evidence Review This consensus statement and systematic review study used a novel approach from the WikiGuidelines Group, an open access collaborative research project, to construct clinical guidelines for pyogenic osteomyelitis. In June 2021 and February 2022, authors recruited via social media conducted multiple PubMed literature searches, including all years and languages, regarding osteomyelitis management; criteria for article quality and inclusion were specified in the group's charter. The GRADE system for evaluating evidence was not used based on previously published concerns regarding the potential dissociation between strength of recommendation and quality of evidence. Instead, the charter required that clear recommendations be made only when reproducible, prospective, controlled studies provided hypothesis-confirming evidence. In the absence of such data, clinical reviews were drafted to discuss pros and cons of care choices. Both clear recommendations and clinical reviews were planned with the intention to be regularly updated as new data become available. Findings Sixty-three participants with diverse expertise from 8 countries developed the group's charter and its first guideline on pyogenic osteomyelitis. These participants included both nonacademic and academic physicians and pharmacists specializing in general internal medicine or hospital medicine, infectious diseases, orthopedic surgery, pharmacology, and medical microbiology. Of the 7 questions addressed in the guideline, 2 clear recommendations were offered for the use of oral antibiotic therapy and the duration of therapy. In addition, 5 clinical reviews were authored addressing diagnosis, approaches to osteomyelitis underlying a pressure ulcer, timing for the administration of empirical therapy, specific antimicrobial options (including empirical regimens, use of antimicrobials targeting resistant pathogens, the role of bone penetration, and the use of rifampin as adjunctive therapy), and the role of biomarkers and imaging to assess responses to therapy. Conclusions and Relevance The WikiGuidelines approach offers a novel methodology for clinical guideline development that precludes recommendations based on low-quality data or opinion. The primary limitation is the need for more rigorous clinical investigations, enabling additional clear recommendations for clinical questions currently unresolved by high-quality data

Strong constraints on aerosol-cloud interactions from volcanic eruptions.

Aerosols have a potentially large effect on climate, particularly through their interactions with clouds, but the magnitude of this effect is highly uncertain. Large volcanic eruptions produce sulfur dioxide, which in turn produces aerosols; these eruptions thus represent a natural experiment through which to quantify aerosol-cloud interactions. Here we show that the massive 2014-2015 fissure eruption in Holuhraun, Iceland, reduced the size of liquid cloud droplets-consistent with expectations-but had no discernible effect on other cloud properties. The reduction in droplet size led to cloud brightening and global-mean radiative forcing of around -0.2 watts per square metre for September to October 2014. Changes in cloud amount or cloud liquid water path, however, were undetectable, indicating that these indirect effects, and cloud systems in general, are well buffered against aerosol changes. This result will reduce uncertainties in future climate projections, because we are now able to reject results from climate models with an excessive liquid-water-path response

International genome-wide meta-analysis identifies new primary biliary cirrhosis risk loci and targetable pathogenic pathways.

Primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC) is a classical autoimmune liver disease for which effective immunomodulatory therapy is lacking. Here we perform meta-analyses of discovery data sets from genome-wide association studies of European subjects (n=2,764 cases and 10,475 controls) followed by validation genotyping in an independent cohort (n=3,716 cases and 4,261 controls). We discover and validate six previously unknown risk loci for PBC (Pcombined<5 × 10(-8)) and used pathway analysis to identify JAK-STAT/IL12/IL27 signalling and cytokine-cytokine pathways, for which relevant therapies exist

Case Reports1. A Late Presentation of Loeys-Dietz Syndrome: Beware of TGFβ Receptor Mutations in Benign Joint Hypermobility

Background: Thoracic aortic aneurysms (TAA) and dissections are not uncommon causes of sudden death in young adults. Loeys-Dietz syndrome (LDS) is a rare, recently described, autosomal dominant, connective tissue disease characterized by aggressive arterial aneurysms, resulting from mutations in the transforming growth factor beta (TGFβ) receptor genes TGFBR1 and TGFBR2. Mean age at death is 26.1 years, most often due to aortic dissection. We report an unusually late presentation of LDS, diagnosed following elective surgery in a female with a long history of joint hypermobility. Methods: A 51-year-old Caucasian lady complained of chest pain and headache following a dural leak from spinal anaesthesia for an elective ankle arthroscopy. CT scan and echocardiography demonstrated a dilated aortic root and significant aortic regurgitation. MRA demonstrated aortic tortuosity, an infrarenal aortic aneurysm and aneurysms in the left renal and right internal mammary arteries. She underwent aortic root repair and aortic valve replacement. She had a background of long-standing joint pains secondary to hypermobility, easy bruising, unusual fracture susceptibility and mild bronchiectasis. She had one healthy child age 32, after which she suffered a uterine prolapse. Examination revealed mild Marfanoid features. Uvula, skin and ophthalmological examination was normal. Results: Fibrillin-1 testing for Marfan syndrome (MFS) was negative. Detection of a c.1270G > C (p.Gly424Arg) TGFBR2 mutation confirmed the diagnosis of LDS. Losartan was started for vascular protection. Conclusions: LDS is a severe inherited vasculopathy that usually presents in childhood. It is characterized by aortic root dilatation and ascending aneurysms. There is a higher risk of aortic dissection compared with MFS. Clinical features overlap with MFS and Ehlers Danlos syndrome Type IV, but differentiating dysmorphogenic features include ocular hypertelorism, bifid uvula and cleft palate. Echocardiography and MRA or CT scanning from head to pelvis is recommended to establish the extent of vascular involvement. Management involves early surgical intervention, including early valve-sparing aortic root replacement, genetic counselling and close monitoring in pregnancy. Despite being caused by loss of function mutations in either TGFβ receptor, paradoxical activation of TGFβ signalling is seen, suggesting that TGFβ antagonism may confer disease modifying effects similar to those observed in MFS. TGFβ antagonism can be achieved with angiotensin antagonists, such as Losartan, which is able to delay aortic aneurysm development in preclinical models and in patients with MFS. Our case emphasizes the importance of timely recognition of vasculopathy syndromes in patients with hypermobility and the need for early surgical intervention. It also highlights their heterogeneity and the potential for late presentation. Disclosures: The authors have declared no conflicts of interes

Multiple novel prostate cancer susceptibility signals identified by fine-mapping of known risk loci among Europeans

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified numerous common prostate cancer (PrCa) susceptibility loci. We have fine-mapped 64 GWAS regions known at the conclusion of the iCOGS study using large-scale genotyping and imputation in 25 723 PrCa cases and 26 274 controls of European ancestry. We detected evidence for multiple independent signals at 16 regions, 12 of which contained additional newly identified significant associations. A single signal comprising a spectrum of correlated variation was observed at 39 regions; 35 of which are now described by a novel more significantly associated lead SNP, while the originally reported variant remained as the lead SNP only in 4 regions. We also confirmed two association signals in Europeans that had been previously reported only in East-Asian GWAS. Based on statistical evidence and linkage disequilibrium (LD) structure, we have curated and narrowed down the list of the most likely candidate causal variants for each region. Functional annotation using data from ENCODE filtered for PrCa cell lines and eQTL analysis demonstrated significant enrichment for overlap with bio-features within this set. By incorporating the novel risk variants identified here alongside the refined data for existing association signals, we estimate that these loci now explain ∼38.9% of the familial relative risk of PrCa, an 8.9% improvement over the previously reported GWAS tag SNPs. This suggests that a significant fraction of the heritability of PrCa may have been hidden during the discovery phase of GWAS, in particular due to the presence of multiple independent signals within the same regio