Ecological equivalence: a realistic assumption for niche theory as a testable alternative to neutral theory

Hubbell's 2001 neutral theory unifies biodiversity and biogeography by modelling steady-state distributions of species richness and abundances across spatio-temporal scales. Accurate predictions have issued from its core premise that all species have identical vital rates. Yet no ecologist believes that species are identical in reality. Here I explain this paradox in terms of the ecological equivalence that species must achieve at their coexistence equilibrium, defined by zero net fitness for all regardless of intrinsic differences between them. I show that the distinction of realised from intrinsic vital rates is crucial to evaluating community resilience. An analysis of competitive interactions reveals how zero-sum patterns of abundance emerge for species with contrasting life-history traits as for identical species. I develop a stochastic model to simulate community assembly from a random drift of invasions sustaining the dynamics of recruitment following deaths and extinctions. Species are allocated identical intrinsic vital rates for neutral dynamics, or random intrinsic vital rates and competitive abilities for niche dynamics either on a continuous scale or between dominant-fugitive extremes. Resulting communities have steady-state distributions of the same type for more or less extremely differentiated species as for identical species. All produce negatively skewed log-normal distributions of species abundance, zero-sum relationships of total abundance to area, and Arrhenius relationships of species to area. Intrinsically identical species nevertheless support fewer total individuals, because their densities impact as strongly on each other as on themselves. Truly neutral communities have measurably lower abundance/area and higher species/abundance ratios. Neutral scenarios can be parameterized as null hypotheses for testing competitive release, which is a sure signal of niche dynamics. Ignoring the true strength of interactions between and within species risks a substantial misrepresentation of community resilience to habitat los

Evolutionary dynamics of the cryptocurrency market

The cryptocurrency market surpassed the barrier of $100 billion market capitalization in June 2017, after months of steady growth. Despite its increasing relevance in the financial world, a comprehensive analysis of the whole system is still lacking, as most studies have focused exclusively on the behaviour of one (Bitcoin) or few cryptocurrencies. Here, we consider the history of the entire market and analyse the behaviour of 1469 cryptocurrencies introduced between April 2013 and May 2017. We reveal that, while new cryptocurrencies appear and disappear continuously and their market capitalization is increasing (super-)exponentially, several statistical properties of the market have been stable for years. These include the number of active cryptocurrencies, market share distribution and the turnover of cryptocurrencies. Adopting an ecological perspective, we show that the so-called neutral model of evolution is able to reproduce a number of key empirical observations, despite its simplicity and the assumption of no selective advantage of one cryptocurrency over another. Our results shed light on the properties of the cryptocurrency market and establish a first formal link between ecological modelling and the study of this growing system. We anticipate they will spark further research in this direction

A new hammer to crack an old nut : interspecific competitive resource capture by plants is regulated by nutrient supply, not climate

Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Ecological implications of a flower size/number trade-off in tropical forest trees

Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Quantifying the relative roles of selective and neutral processes in defining eukaryotic microbial communities

We have a limited understanding of the relative contributions of different processes that regulate microbial communities, which are crucial components of both natural and agricultural ecosystems. The contributions of selective and neutral processes in defining community composition are often confounded in field studies because as one moves through space, environments also change. Managed ecosystems provide an excellent opportunity to control for this and evaluate the relative strength of these processes by minimising differences between comparable niches separated at different geographic scales. We use next-generation sequencing to characterize the variance in fungal communities inhabiting adjacent fruit, soil and bark in comparable vineyards across 1000 kms in New Zealand. By compartmentalizing community variation, we reveal that niche explains at least four times more community variance than geographic location. We go beyond merely demonstrating that different communities are found in both different niches and locations by quantifying the forces that define these patterns. Overall, selection unsurprisingly predominantly shapes these microbial communities, but we show the balance of neutral processes also have a significant role in defining community assemblage in eukaryotic microbes

Asymmetry in Species Regional Dispersal Ability and the Neutral Theory

The neutral assumption that individuals of either the same or different species share exactly the same birth, death, migration, and speciation probabilities is fundamental yet controversial to the neutral theory. Several theoretical studies have demonstrated that a slight difference in species per capita birth or death rates can have a profound consequence on species coexistence and community structure. Whether asymmetry in migration, a vital demographic parameter in the neutral model, plays an important role in community assembly still remains unknown. In this paper, we relaxed the ecological equivalence assumption of the neutral model by introducing differences into species regional dispersal ability. We investigated the effect of asymmetric dispersal on the neutral local community structure. We found that per capita asymmetric dispersal among species could reduce species richness of the local community and result in deviations of species abundance distributions from those predicted by the neutral model. But the effect was moderate compared with that of asymmetries in birth or death rates, unless very large asymmetries in dispersal were assumed. A large difference in species dispersal ability, if there is, can overwhelm the role of random drift and make local community dynamics deterministic. In this case, species with higher regional dispersal abilities tended to dominate in the local community. However, the species abundance distribution of the local community under asymmetric dispersal could be well fitted by the neutral model, but the neutral model generally underestimated the fundamental biodiversity number but overestimated the migration rate in such communities

Microbial regulation of the soil carbon cycle: evidence from gene-enzyme relationships.

A lack of empirical evidence for the microbial regulation of ecosystem processes, including carbon (C) degradation, hinders our ability to develop a framework to directly incorporate the genetic composition of microbial communities in the enzyme-driven Earth system models. Herein we evaluated the linkage between microbial functional genes and extracellular enzyme activity in soil samples collected across three geographical regions of Australia. We found a strong relationship between different functional genes and their corresponding enzyme activities. This relationship was maintained after considering microbial community structure, total C and soil pH using structural equation modelling. Results showed that the variations in the activity of enzymes involved in C degradation were predicted by the functional gene abundance of the soil microbial community (R2>0.90 in all cases). Our findings provide a strong framework for improved predictions on soil C dynamics that could be achieved by adopting a gene-centric approach incorporating the abundance of functional genes into process models

Universal Ecological Patterns in College Basketball Communities

The rank abundance of common and rare species within ecological communities is remarkably consistent from the tropics to the tundra. This invariant patterning provides one of ecology's most enduring and unified tenets: most species rare and a few very common. Increasingly, attention is focused upon elucidating biological mechanisms that explain these species abundance distributions (SADs), but these evaluations remain controversial. We show that college basketball wins generate SADs just like those observed in ecological communities. Whereas college basketball wins are structured by competitive interactions, the result produces a SAD pattern indistinguishable from random wins. We also show that species abundance data for tropical trees exhibits a significant-digit pattern consistent with data derived from complex structuring forces. These results cast doubt upon the ability of SAD analysis to resolve ecological mechanism, and their patterning may reflect statistical artifact as much as biological processes

The Evolution of Functionally Redundant Species; Evidence from Beetles

While species fulfill many different roles in ecosystems, it has been suggested that numerous species might actually share the same function in a near neutral way. So-far, however, it is unclear whether such functional redundancy really exists. We scrutinize this question using extensive data on the world’s 4168 species of diving beetles. We show that across the globe these animals have evolved towards a small number of regularly-spaced body sizes, and that locally co-existing species are either very similar in size or differ by at least 35%. Surprisingly, intermediate size differences (10–20%) are rare. As body-size strongly reflects functional aspects such as the food that these generalist predators can eat, these beetles thus form relatively distinct groups of functional look-a-likes. The striking global regularity of these patterns support the idea that a self-organizing process drives such species-rich groups to self-organize evolutionary into clusters where functional redundancy ensures resilience through an insurance effect

Решение оптимизационных задач для систем массового обслуживання с отказами в условиях неопределенности

Построены математические модели расчета показателей качества функционирования вычислительных сетей, которые можно представить в виде сетей массового обслуживания с отказами. Сформулированы задачи оптимизации показателей качества функционирования таких сетей при заданных ограничениях на максимальную пропускную способность каналов связи и на выделяемые для модернизации сети ресурсы. Построены алгоритмы, которые позволяют решать поставленные оптимизационные задачи в рамках оговоренных ограничений