River Invertebrate Classification Tool

Background to research The Regulatory Agencies in the UK (the Environment Agency; Scottish Environment Protection Agency; and the Environment & Heritage Service) currently use RIVPACS III+ software to classify the ecological quality of rivers. However, because RIVPACS III+ pre-dates the WFD, there has been a requirement to ensure that the RIVPACS reference sites are fully WFD compliant, to add new biotic indices to the RIVPACS models, and to improve the robustness of the RIVPACS software to fully meet the needs of the Agencies in their delivery of WFD monitoring. These issues have been addressed in this project and have led to the development of new RIVPACS IV predictive models that will be programmed into a new River Invertebrate Classification Tool being built by SEPA. This new system will be based on a modern software programming language, be compatible with the agencies’ computer systems and include the ability to predict new biological indices, produce biological status assessments based on these new indices and be able to estimate the errors involved in using these new indices. Because access to the new system will be essential for the UK Agencies to be able to implementation the WFD, the new tool will be readily and freely available to anyone who might seek to use it. Objectives of research • The overall objective of the project was to produce a new set of RIVPACS predictive models for use within a new River Invertebrate Classification Tool that will be used to classify the ecological status of rivers for Water Framework Directive compliance monitoring • The new RIVPACS models constructed with this project required considerably enhanced functionality compared to RIVPACS III+ to properly address the monitoring requirements of the UK Agencies in their implementation of the Water Framework Directive. Key findings and recommendations This project has produced new RIVPACS IV models with considerably enhanced functionality compared to RIVPACS III+. These models incorporate: • A full revision of the taxonomic framework of RIVPACS to bring the taxonomy up-to-date and enable compatiability across the revised Miatland, Furse code and National Biodiversity Network taxon coding systems used across the UK Agencies and beyond • Predictions that fully satisfy the WFD definition of ‘reference condition’ by adjusting predictions for certain stream types and by removal of sites that were not in reference condition when sampled • Allocation of actual abundance values to family level records in the RIVPACS reference data set. Lack of actual abundance data, especially at family level, has affected all versions of RIVPACS and has constrained the types of biotic indices that RIVPACS can predict • Extension to the suite of biotic indices so that the new system can predict a wider range of reference state “expected” index values. This enables full WFD quality reporting capabilities as well as providing the system with the general functionality to predict a much wider range of indices e.g. intercalibration indices (e.g. ICMi), stress-specific indices, and ecological and functional trait indices • Extension of the uncertainty/errors module to estimate and assess uncertainty in (i) assignment to status class and (ii) comparison of samples for temporal change in quality and status. This needs to be done for a wider range of biotic indices (including those incorporating abundance data) These new RIVPACS IV models can be used by the UK Agencies across Great Britain and Northern Ireland in their WFD compliance monitoring. All of the algorithms, variables and data necessary to build these models have been provided to SEPA for programming into a new River Invertebrate Classification Tool that will be disseminated made free of charge to all interested user

Measurement of single electron emission in two-phase xenon

We present the first measurements of the electroluminescence response to the emission of single electrons in a two-phase noble gas detector. Single ionization electrons generated in liquid xenon are detected in a thin gas layer during the 31-day background run of the ZEPLIN-II experiment, a two-phase xenon detector for WIMP dark matter searches. Both the pressure dependence and magnitude of the single-electron response are in agreement with previous measurements of electroluminescence yield in xenon. We discuss different photoionization processes as possible cause for the sample of single electrons studied in this work. This observation may have implications for the design and operation of future large-scale two-phase systems.Comment: 11 pages, 6 figure

The ZEPLIN II dark matter detector: data acquisition system and data reduction

ZEPLIN-II is a two-phase (liquid/gas) xenon dark matter detector searching for WIMP-nucleon interactions. In this paper we describe the data acquisition system used to record the data from ZEPLIN-II and the reduction procedures which parameterise the data for subsequent analysis.Comment: 11 pages, 10 figure

The ZEPLIN II dark matter detector: data acquisition system and data reduction

ZEPLIN-II is a two-phase (liquid/gas) xenon dark matter detector searching for WIMP-nucleon interactions. In this paper we describe the data acquisition system used to record the data from ZEPLIN-II and the reduction procedures which parameterise the data for subsequent analysis.Comment: 11 pages, 10 figure

Limits on spin-dependent WIMP-nucleon cross-sections from the first ZEPLIN-II data

The first underground data run of the ZEPLIN-II experiment has set a limit on the nuclear recoil rate in the two-phase xenon detector for direct dark matter searches. In this paper the results from this run are converted into the limits on spin-dependent WIMP-proton and WIMP-neutron cross-sections. The minimum of the curve for WIMP-neutron cross-section corresponds to 0.07 pb at a WIMP mass of around 65 GeV.Comment: 12 pages, 2 figures, to be published in Physics Letters

Counting the bodies: Estimating the numbers and spatial variation of Australian reptiles, birds and mammals killed by two invasive mesopredators

Aim Introduced predators negatively impact biodiversity globally, with insular fauna often most severely affected. Here, we assess spatial variation in the number of terrestrial vertebrates (excluding amphibians) killed by two mammalian mesopredators introduced to Australia, the red fox (Vulpes vulpes) and feral cat (Felis catus). We aim to identify prey groups that suffer especially high rates of predation, and regions where losses to foxes and/or cats are most substantial. Location Australia. Methods We draw information on the spatial variation in tallies of reptiles, birds and mammals killed by cats in Australia from published studies. We derive tallies for fox predation by (i) modelling continental-scale spatial variation in fox density, (ii) modelling spatial variation in the frequency of occurrence of prey groups in fox diet, (iii) analysing the number of prey individuals within dietary samples and (iv) discounting animals taken as carrion. We derive point estimates of the numbers of individuals killed annually by foxes and by cats and map spatial variation in these tallies. Results Foxes kill more reptiles, birds and mammals (peaking at 1071 km−2 year−1) than cats (55 km−2 year−1) across most of the unmodified temperate and forested areas of mainland Australia, reflecting the generally higher density of foxes than cats in these environments. However, across most of the continent – mainly the arid central and tropical northern regions (and on most Australian islands) – cats kill more animals than foxes. We estimate that foxes and cats together kill 697 million reptiles annually in Australia, 510 million birds and 1435 million mammals. Main conclusions This continental-scale analysis demonstrates that predation by two introduced species takes a substantial and ongoing toll on Australian reptiles, birds and mammals. Continuing population declines and potential extinctions of some of these species threatens to further compound Australia's poor contemporary conservation record

Invasive versus medical management in patients with prior coronary artery bypass surgery with a non-ST segment elevation acute coronary syndrome: a pilot randomized controlled trial

Background: The benefits of routine invasive management in patients with prior coronary artery bypass grafts presenting with non-ST elevation acute coronary syndromes are uncertain because these patients were excluded from pivotal trials. Methods: In a multicenter trial, non-ST elevation acute coronary syndromes patients with prior coronary artery bypass graft were prospectively screened in 4 acute hospitals. Medically stabilized patients were randomized to invasive management (invasive group) or noninvasive management (medical group). The primary outcome was adherence with the randomized strategy by 30 days. A blinded, independent Clinical Event Committee adjudicated predefined composite outcomes for efficacy (all-cause mortality, rehospitalization for refractory ischemia/angina, myocardial infarction, hospitalization because of heart failure) and safety (major bleeding, stroke, procedure-related myocardial infarction, and worsening renal function). Results: Two hundred seventeen patients were screened and 60 (mean±SD age, 71±9 years, 72% male) were randomized (invasive group, n=31; medical group, n=29). One-third (n=10) of the participants in the invasive group initially received percutaneous coronary intervention. In the medical group, 1 participant crossed over to invasive management on day 30 but percutaneous coronary intervention was not performed. During 2-years’ follow-up (median [interquartile range], 744 [570–853] days), the composite outcome for efficacy occurred in 13 (42%) subjects in the invasive group and 13 (45%) subjects in the medical group. The composite safety outcome occurred in 8 (26%) subjects in the invasive group and 9 (31%) subjects in the medical group. An efficacy or safety outcome occurred in 17 (55%) subjects in the invasive group and 16 (55%) subjects in the medical group. Health status (EuroQol 5 Dimensions) and angina class in each group were similar at 12 months. Conclusions: More than half of the population experienced a serious adverse event. An initial noninvasive management strategy is feasible. A substantive health outcomes trial of invasive versus noninvasive management in non-ST elevation acute coronary syndromes patients with prior coronary artery bypass grafts appears warranted. Clinical Trial Registration: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01895751

Field measurements of horizontal forward motion velocities of terrestrial dust devils: towards a proxy for ambient winds on Mars and Earth

Dust devils – convective vortices made visible by the dust and debris they entrain – are common in arid environments and have been observed on Earth and Mars. Martian dust devils have been identified both in images taken at the surface and in remote sensing observations from orbiting spacecraft. Observations from landing craft and orbiting instruments have allowed the dust devil translational forward motion (ground velocity) to be calculated, but it is unclear how these velocities relate to the local ambient wind conditions, for (i) only model wind speeds are generally available for Mars, and (ii) on Earth only anecdotal evidence exists that compares dust devil ground velocity with ambient wind velocity. If dust devil ground velocity can be reliably correlated to the ambient wind regime, observations of dust devils could provide a proxy for wind speed and direction measurements on Mars. Hence, dust devil ground velocities could be used to probe the circulation of the martian boundary layer and help constrain climate models or assess the safety of future landing sites. We present results from a field study of terrestrial dust devils performed in the southwest USA in which we measured dust devil horizontal velocity as a function of ambient wind velocity. We acquired stereo images of more than a hundred active dust devils and recorded multiple size and position measurements for each dust devil. We used these data to calculate dust devil translational velocity. The dust devils were within a study area bounded by 10 m high meteorology towers such that dust devil speed and direction could be correlated with the local ambient wind speed and direction measurements. Daily (10:00 to 16:00 local time) and two-hour averaged dust devil ground speeds correlate well with ambient wind speeds averaged over the same period. Unsurprisingly, individual measurements of dust devil ground speed match instantaneous measurements of ambient wind speed more poorly; a 20-minute smoothing window applied to the ambient wind speed data improves the correlation. In general, dust devils travel 10-20% faster than ambient wind speed measured at 10 m height, suggesting that their ground speeds are representative of the boundary layer winds a few tens of meters above ground level. Dust devil ground motion direction closely matches the measured ambient wind direction. The link between ambient winds and dust devil ground velocity demonstrated here suggests that a similar one should apply on Mars. Determining the details of the martian relationship between dust devil ground velocity and ambient wind velocity might require new in-situ or modelling studies but, if completed successfully, would provide a quantitative means of measuring wind velocities on Mars that would otherwise be impossible to obtain

Probabilistic solar wind and geomagnetic forecasting using an analogue ensemble or "Similar Day" approach

Effective space-weather prediction and mitigation requires accurate forecasting of near-Earth solar-wind conditions. Numerical magnetohydrodynamic models of the solar wind, driven by remote solar observations, are gaining skill at forecasting the large-scale solar-wind features that give rise to near-Earth variations over days and weeks. There remains a need for accurate short-term (hours to days) solar-wind forecasts, however. In this study we investigate the analogue ensemble (AnEn), or “similar day”, approach that was developed for atmospheric weather forecasting. The central premise of the AnEn is that past variations that are analogous or similar to current conditions can be used to provide a good estimate of future variations. By considering an ensemble of past analogues, the AnEn forecast is inherently probabilistic and provides a measure of the forecast uncertainty. We show that forecasts of solar-wind speed can be improved by considering both speed and density when determining past analogues, whereas forecasts of the out-of-ecliptic magnetic field [ BNBN ] are improved by also considering the in-ecliptic magnetic-field components. In general, the best forecasts are found by considering only the previous 6 – 12 hours of observations. Using these parameters, the AnEn provides a valuable probabilistic forecast for solar-wind speed, density, and in-ecliptic magnetic field over lead times from a few hours to around four days. For BNBN , which is central to space-weather disturbance, the AnEn only provides a valuable forecast out to around six to seven hours. As the inherent predictability of this parameter is low, this is still likely a marked improvement over other forecast methods. We also investigate the use of the AnEn in forecasting geomagnetic indices Dst and Kp. The AnEn provides a valuable probabilistic forecast of both indices out to around four days. We outline a number of future improvements to AnEn forecasts of near-Earth solar-wind and geomagnetic conditions