Probabilistic Forecasting of Bubbles and Flash Crashes

We propose a near explosive random coefficient autoregressive model (NERC) to obtain predictive probabilities of the apparition and devolution of bubbles. The distribution of the autoregressive coefficient of this model is allowed to be centred at an O(T−α) distance of unity, with α ∈ (0, 1). When the expectation of the autoregressive coefficient lies on the explosive side of unity, the NERC helps to model the temporary explosiveness of time series and obtain related predictive probabilities. We study the asymptotic properties of the NERC and provide a procedure for inference on the parameters. In empirical illustrations, we estimate predictive probabilities of bubbles or flash crashes in financial asset prices

Genetic specificity and potential for local adaptation between dengue viruses and mosquito vectors

Background: Several observations support the hypothesis that vector-driven selection plays an important role in shaping dengue virus (DENV) genetic diversity. Clustering of DENV genetic diversity at a particular location may reflect underlying genetic structure of vector populations, which combined with specific vector genotype x virus genotype (G x G) interactions may promote adaptation of viral lineages to local mosquito vector genotypes. Although spatial structure of vector polymorphism at neutral genetic loci is well-documented, existence of G x G interactions between mosquito and virus genotypes has not been formally demonstrated in natural populations. Here we measure G x G interactions in a system representative of a natural situation in Thailand by challenging three isofemale families from field-derived Aedes aegypti with three contemporaneous low-passage isolates of DENV-1. Results: Among indices of vector competence examined, the proportion of mosquitoes with a midgut infection, viral RNA concentration in the body, and quantity of virus disseminated to the head/legs (but not the proportion of infected mosquitoes with a disseminated infection) strongly depended on the specific combinations of isofemale families and viral isolates, demonstrating significant G x G interactions. Conclusion: Evidence for genetic specificity of interactions in our simple experimental design indicates that vector competence of Ae. aegypti for DENV is likely governed to a large extent by G x G interactions in genetically diverse, natural populations. This result challenges the general relevance of conclusions from laboratory systems that consist of a single combination of mosquito and DENV genotypes. Combined with earlier evidence for fine-scale genetic structure of natural Ae. aegypti populations, our finding indicates that the necessary conditions for local DENV adaptation to mosquito vectors are met

Facing new EU policies towards animal welfare improvement. The relative importance of pig castration

Postprint (published version

Consumer acceptance of minced meat patties from boars in four European countries

A consumer study was performed in four EU countries to further clarify the acceptability of meat with boar taint. In Denmark, France, Italy and Poland, a total of 476 female consumers evaluated 8 meat patties from boars with varying levels of skatole (0.10-0.40μg/g fat tissue) and androstenone (0.47-2.00 μg/g fat tissue), in a pair-wise comparison with patties from castrates. Boar meat patties were always less preferred than the castrate meat patties, regardless of the level of androstenone and skatole. Acceptability of the boar meat patties decreased with increasing skatole level. In samples with low skatole levels, higher levels of androstenone also reduced acceptability among androstenone sensitive consumers. No clear threshold levels for androstenone and skatole could be identified. Maps presenting the reduction in preference due to increasing levels of skatole and androstenone, and corrected for the general acceptance of the meat product were developed, taking into account androstenone sensitivity. Further work is needed, covering the whole range of androstenone and skatole levels found in entire male pigs and for a wider set of meat products.info:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersio

Chronic pain associated with the Chikungunya Fever: long lasting burden of an acute illness

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) is responsible for major epidemics worldwide. Autochthonous cases were recently reported in several European countries. Acute infection is thought to be monophasic. However reports on chronic pain related to CHIKV infection have been made. In particular, the fact that many of these patients do not respond well to usual analgesics suggests that the nature of chronic pain may be not only nociceptive but also neuropathic. Neuropathic pain syndromes require specific treatment and the identification of neuropathic characteristics (NC) in a pain syndrome is a major step towards pain control.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We carried out a cross-sectional study at the end of the major two-wave outbreak lasting 17 months in Réunion Island. We assessed pain in 106 patients seeking general practitioners with confirmed infection with the CHIK virus, and evaluated its impact on quality of life (QoL).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The mean intensity of pain on the visual-analogical scale (VAS) was 5.8 ± 2.1, and its mean duration was 89 ± 2 days. Fifty-six patients fulfilled the definition of chronic pain. Pain had NC in 18.9% according to the DN4 questionnaire. Conversely, about two thirds (65%) of patients with NC had chronic pain. The average pain intensity was similar between patients with or without NC (6.0 ± 1.7 vs 6.1 ± 2.0). However, the total score of the Short Form-McGill Pain Questionnaire (SF-MPQ)(15.5 ± 5.2 vs 11.6 ± 5.2; p < 0.01) and both the affective (18.8 ± 6.2 vs 13.4 ± 6.7; p < 0.01) and sensory subscores (34.3 ± 10.7 vs 25.0 ± 9.9; p < 0.01) were significantly higher in patients with NC. The mean pain interference in life activities calculated from the Brief Pain Inventory (BPI) was significantly higher in patients with chronic pain than in patients without it (6.8 ± 1.9 vs 5.9 ± 1.9, p < 0.05). This score was also significantly higher in patients with NC than in those without such a feature (7.2 ± 1.5 vs 6.1 ± 1.9, p < 0.05).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>There exists a specific chronic pain condition associated to CHIKV. Pain with NC seems to be associated with more aggressive clinical picture, more intense impact in QoL and more challenging pharmacological treatment.</p

Analyse écorégionale marine de Nouvelle-Calédonie : atelier d'identification des aires de conservation prioritaires

Dans le cadre de l'initiative pour les récifs coralliens du Pacifique sud (CRISP), le WWF-France a souhaité développer un projet pour la protection des récifs et des lagons néo-calédoniens. L'atelier, qui s'est déroulé les 10 et 11 août à Nouméa, avait pour objectif de rassembler les scientifiques et les experts du lagon néocalédonien pour identifier, sur la base de leur connaissance experte, les zones les plus remarquables du lagon (richesse, endémisme, originalité des faunes et flores, espèces emblématiques, zones d'intérêt fonctionnel) sur lesquelles doivent porter en priorité les efforts de conservation. Il a permis d'identifier 20 aires prioritaires pour la conservation, parmi lesquelles 6 ont un intérêt mondial, 4 ont un intérêt sur le plan régional, les autres ayant un intérêt local

HLA Class I Restriction as a Possible Driving Force for Chikungunya Evolution

After two decades of quiescence, epidemic resurgence of Chikungunya fever (CHIKF) was reported in Africa, several islands in the Indian Ocean, South-East Asia and the Pacific causing unprecedented morbidity with some cases of fatality. Early phylogenetic analyses based on partial sequences of Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) have led to speculation that the virus behind recent epidemics may result in greater pathogenicity. To understand the reasons for these new epidemics, we first performed extensive analyses of existing CHIKV sequences from its introduction in 1952 to 2009. Our results revealed the existence of a continuous genotypic lineage, suggesting selective pressure is active in CHIKV evolution. We further showed that CHIKV is undergoing mild positive selection, and that site-specific mutations may be driven by cell-mediated immune pressure, with occasional changes that resulted in the loss of human leukocyte antigen (HLA) class I-restricting elements. These findings provide a basis to understand Chikungunya virus evolution and reveal the power of post-genomic analyses to understand CHIKV and other viral epidemiology. Such an approach is useful for studying the impact of host immunity on pathogen evolution, and may help identify appropriate antigens suitable for subunit vaccine formulations

Chikungunya Virus Infection

Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) is an alphavirus transmitted by mosquitoes, mostly Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. After half a century of focal outbreaks of acute febrile polyarthralgia in Africa and Asia, the disease unexpectedly spread in the past decade with large outbreaks in Africa and around the Indian Ocean and rare autochthonous transmission in temperate areas. This emergence brought new insights on its pathogenesis, notably the role of the A226V mutation that improved CHIKV fitness in Ae. albopictus and the possible CHIKV persistence in deep tissue sanctuaries for months after infection. Massive outbreaks also revealed new aspects of the acute stage: the high number of symptomatic cases, unexpected complications, mother-to-child transmission, and low lethality in debilitated patients. The follow-up of patients in epidemic areas has identified frequent, long-lasting, rheumatic disorders, including rare inflammatory joint destruction, and common chronic mood changes associated with quality-of-life impairment. Thus, the globalization of CHIKV exposes countries with Aedes mosquitoes both to brutal outbreaks of acute incapacitating episodes and endemic long-lasting disorders

Colonization of the Mediterranean Basin by the vector biting midge species Culicoides imicola: an old story

Understanding the demographic history and genetic make-up of colonizing species is critical for inferring population sources and colonization routes. This is of main interest for designing accurate control measures in areas newly colonized by vector species of economically important pathogens. The biting midge Culicoides imicola is a major vector of Orbiviruses to livestock. Historically, the distribution of this species was limited to the Afrotropical region. Entomological surveys first revealed the presence of C. imicola in the south of the Mediterranean basin by the 1970's. Following recurrent reports of massive bluetongue outbreaks since the 1990s, the presence of the species was confirmed in northern areas. In this study, we addressed the chronology and processes of C. imicola colonization in the Mediterranean basin. We characterized the genetic structure of its populations across Mediterranean and African regions using both mitochondrial and nuclear markers, and combined phylogeographical analyses with population genetics and approximate Bayesian computation. We found a west/east genetic differentiation between populations, occurring both within Africa and within the Mediterranean basin. We demonstrated that three of these groups had experienced demographic expansions in the Pleistocene, probably because of climate changes during this period. Finally, we showed that C. imicola could have colonized the Mediterranean basin in the late Pleistocene or early Holocene through a single event of introduction; however we cannot exclude the hypothesis involving two routes of colonization. Thus, the recent bluetongue outbreaks are not linked to C. imicola colonization event, but rather to biological changes in the vector or the virus