Are fish consumption advisories for the great lakes adequately protective against chemical mixtures?

Background: The North American Great Lakes are home to \u3e 140 types of fish and are famous for recreational and commercial fishing. However, the presence of toxic substances has resulted in the issuance of fish consumption advisories that are typically based on the most restrictive contaminant. Objectives: We investigated whether these advisories, which typically neglect the existence of a mixture of chemicals and their possible additive adverse effects, are adequately protective of the health of humans consuming fish from the Canadian waters of the Great Lakes. Methods: Using recent fish contaminant monitoring data collected by the government of Ontario, Canada, we simulated advisories using most-restrictive-contaminant (one-chem) and multi-contaminant additive effect (multi-chem) approaches. The advisories from the two simulations were compared to determine if there is any deficiency in the currently issued advisories. Results: Approximately half of the advisories currently issued are potentially not adequately protective. Of the four Great Lakes studied, the highest percentage of advisories affected are in Lake Ontario if an additive effect is considered. Many fish that are popular for consumption, such as walleye, salmon, bass and trout, would have noticeably more stringent advisories. Conclusions: Improvements in the advisories may be needed to ensure that the health of humans consuming fish from the Great Lakes is protected. In this region, total polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and mercury are the major contaminants causing restrictions on consuming fish, whereas dioxins/furans, toxaphene, and mirex/photomirex are of minor concern. Regular monitoring of most organochlorine pesticides and metals in fish can be discontinued. © 2017, Public Health Services, US Dept of Health and Human Services. All rights reserved

Is it appropriate to composite fish samples for mercury trend monitoring and consumption advisories?

Monitoring mercury levels in fish can be costly because variation by space, time, and fish type/size needs to be captured. Here, we explored if compositing fish samples to decrease analytical costs would reduce the effectiveness of the monitoring objectives. Six compositing methods were evaluated by applying them to an existing extensive dataset and examining their performance in reproducing the fish consumption advisories and temporal trends. The methods resulted in varying amount (average 34-72%) of reductions in samples, but all (except one) reproduced advisories very well (96-97% of the advisories did not change or were one category more restrictive compared to analysis of individual samples). Similarly, the methods performed reasonably well in recreating temporal trends, especially when longer-term and frequent measurements were considered. The results indicate that compositing samples within 5 cm fish size bins or retaining the largest/smallest individuals and compositing in-between samples in batches of 5 with decreasing fish size would be the best approaches. Based on the literature, the findings from this study are applicable to fillet, muscle plug and whole fish mercury monitoring studies. Overall, compositing fish samples for mercury monitoring could result in a substantial savings (approximately 60% of the analytical cost) and should be considered in fish mercury monitoring, especially in long-term programs or when study cost is a concern

A system of metrics for the assessment and improvement of aquatic ecosystem models

In this paper, we introduce the CSPS framework for the hierarchical assessment of aquatic ecosystem models built on a range of metrics and characteristic signatures relevant to aquatic ecosystem condition. The framework is comprised of four levels: 0) conceptual validation; 1) comparison of simulated state variables with observations (‘state validation’); 2) comparison of fluxes with measured process rates (‘process validation’); and 3) assessment of system-level emergent properties, patterns and relationships (‘system validation’). Of these, only levels 0 and 1 are routinely undertaken at present. To highlight a diverse range of contexts relevant to the aquatic ecosystem modelling community, we present several case studies of improved validation approaches using the level 0–3 assessment hierarchy. We envision that the community–driven adoption of these metrics will lead to more rigorously assessed models, ultimately accelerating advances in model structure and function, and improved confidence in model predictions

Planktonic events may cause polymictic-dimictic regime shifts in temperate lakes

Water transparency affects the thermal structure of lakes, and within certain lake depth ranges, it can determine whether a lake mixes regularly (polymictic regime) or stratifies continuously (dimictic regime) from spring through summer. Phytoplankton biomass can influence transparency but the effect of its seasonal pattern on stratification is unknown. Therefore we analysed long term field data from two lakes of similar depth, transparency and climate but one polymictic and one dimictic, and simulated a conceptual lake with a hydrodynamic model. Transparency in the study lakes was typically low during spring and summer blooms and high in between during the clear water phase (CWP), caused when zooplankton graze the spring bloom. The effect of variability of transparency on thermal structure was stronger at intermediate transparency and stronger during a critical window in spring when the rate of lake warming is highest. Whereas the spring bloom strengthened stratification in spring, the CWP weakened it in summer. The presence or absence of the CWP influenced stratification duration and under some conditions determined the mixing regime. Therefore seasonal plankton dynamics, including biotic interactions that suppress the CWP, can influence lake temperatures, stratification duration, and potentially also the mixing regime

Assessment of coastal management options by means of multilayered ecosystem models

This paper presents a multilayered ecosystem modelling approach that combines the simulation of the biogeochemistry of a coastal ecosystem with the simulation of the main forcing functions, such as catchment loading and aquaculture activities. This approach was developed as a tool for sustainable management of coastal ecosystems. A key feature is to simulate management scenarios that account for changes in multiple uses and enable assessment of cumulative impacts of coastal activities. The model was applied to a coastal zone in China with large aquaculture production and multiple catchment uses, and where management efforts to improve water quality are under way. Development scenarios designed in conjunction with local managers and aquaculture producers include the reduction of fish cages and treatment of wastewater. Despite the reduction in nutrient loading simulated in three different scenarios, inorganic nutrient concentrations in the bay were predicted to exceed the thresholds for poor quality defined by Chinese seawater quality legislation. For all scenarios there is still a Moderate High to High nutrient loading from the catchment, so further reductions might be enacted, together with additional decreases in fish cage culture. The model predicts that overall, shellfish production decreases by 10%–28% using any of these development scenarios, principally because shellfish growth is being sustained by the substances to be reduced for improvement of water quality. The model outcomes indicate that this may be counteracted by zoning of shellfish aquaculture at the ecosystem level in order to optimize trade-offs between productivity and environmental effects. The present case study exemplifies the value of multilayered ecosystem modelling as a tool for Integrated Coastal Zone Management and for the adoption of ecosystem approaches for marine resource management. This modelling approach can be applied worldwide, and may be particularly useful for the application of coastal management regulation, for instance in the implementation of the European Marine Strategy Framework Directive

Aligning evidence generation and use across health, development, and environment

© 2019 The Authors Although health, development, and environment challenges are interconnected, evidence remains fractured across sectors due to methodological and conceptual differences in research and practice. Aligned methods are needed to support Sustainable Development Goal advances and similar agendas. The Bridge Collaborative, an emergent research-practice collaboration, presents principles and recommendations that help harmonize methods for evidence generation and use. Recommendations were generated in the context of designing and evaluating evidence of impact for interventions related to five global challenges (stabilizing the global climate, making food production sustainable, decreasing air pollution and respiratory disease, improving sanitation and water security, and solving hunger and malnutrition) and serve as a starting point for further iteration and testing in a broader set of contexts and disciplines. We adopted six principles and emphasize three methodological recommendations: (1) creation of compatible results chains, (2) consideration of all relevant types of evidence, and (3) evaluation of strength of evidence using a unified rubric. We provide detailed suggestions for how these recommendations can be applied in practice, streamlining efforts to apply multi-objective approaches and/or synthesize evidence in multidisciplinary or transdisciplinary teams. These recommendations advance the necessary process of reconciling existing evidence standards in health, development, and environment, and initiate a common basis for integrated evidence generation and use in research, practice, and policy design