Simulation sample sizes for Monte Carlo partial EVPI calculations

Partial expected value of perfect information (EVPI) quantifies the value of removing uncertainty about unknown parameters in a decision model. EVPIs can be computed via Monte Carlo methods. An outer loop samples values of the parameters of interest, and an inner loop samples the remaining parameters from their conditional distribution. This nested Monte Carlo approach can result in biased estimates if small numbers of inner samples are used and can require a large number of model runs for accurate partial EVPI estimates. We present a simple algorithm to estimate the EVPI bias and confidence interval width for a specified number of inner and outer samples. The algorithm uses a relatively small number of model runs (we suggest approximately 600), is quick to compute, and can help determine how many outer and inner iterations are needed for a desired level of accuracy. We test our algorithm using three case studies. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved

A Parallactic Distance of 389 +24/-21 parsecs to the Orion Nebula Cluster from Very Long Baseline Array Observations

We determine the parallax and proper motion of the flaring, non-thermal radio star GMR A, a member of the Orion Nebula Cluster, using Very Long Baseline Array observations. Based on the parallax, we measure a distance of 389 +24/-21 parsecs to the source. Our measurement places the Orion Nebula Cluster considerably closer than the canonical distance of 480 +/- 80 parsecs determined by Genzel et al. (1981). A change of this magnitude in distance lowers the luminosities of the stars in the cluster by a factor of ~ 1.5. We briefly discuss two effects of this change--an increase in the age spread of the pre-main sequence stars and better agreement between the zero-age main-sequence and the temperatures and luminosities of massive stars.Comment: 10 pages, 4 figures, emulateapj, accepted to Ap

Uso de lodos de depuradora sobre suelos de baja productividad en Santa Fe (Argentina)

Se evaluó el efecto de lodos de depuradora sobre la capacidad productiva de los suelos de baja aptitud del centro-norte de Santa Fe, y sobre la producción de sorgo y avena. Se evaluaron dosis entre 0 y 38,5 y entre 0 y 109 Mg de materia seca de lodo/ha, para sorgo y avena respectivamente, aplicadas previo a la siembra sobre un Natracualf típico. Se midió la respuesta en rendimiento y propiedades físicas y químicas del horizonte superficial. En ambos cultivos se observó respuesta positiva en comparación con el testigo. La salinidad moderada del lodo no afectó a los cultivos ya que se lavó con las precipitaciones. Se observó efectopositivo sobre las propiedades químicas y físicas del horizonte superficial, destacándose fósforo extraíble, calcio y magnesio intercambiable, nitrógeno total y carbono orgánico, estabilidad de agregados, e intervalo hídrico óptimo. El pH del suelo sólo tiende a mejorar con altas dosis.Using sewage sludge on soils with low productivity in Santa Fe (Argentina) The effect of sewage sludge on productive capacity of low aptitude soils (class IV or higher) from the center and north of Santa Fe, and on forage production of sorghum and oats was assessed. Before sowing of sorghum and oats, 0 to 38,5 and 0 to 109 Mg of dry matter/ha of sludge was applied respectively, on a Typic Natracualf. Afterwards, along with forage yield, several chemical and physical soil properties were measured. For both crops, forage production was increased in response to the application of sludge. Moderate salinity levels of sludge has no effect on crop production because salts were washed quickly by rainfall. The amount of sludge applied was related positively to extractable phosphorus, exchangeable calcium and magnesium, total nitrogen, organic carbon, aggregate stability and least limiting water range. Soil pH was improved only at higher doses of sludge.Fil: Pilatti, M. A.. Universidad Nacional del Litoral. Facultad de Cs.agrarias. Catedra de Edafologia; ArgentinaFil: Alesso, Carlos Agustín. Universidad Nacional del Litoral. Facultad de Cs.agrarias. Departamento de Biologia Vegetal; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Santa Fe. Instituto de Agrobiotecnologia del Litoral; ArgentinaFil: Felli, O.. Universidad Nacional del Litoral. Facultad de Cs.agrarias. Catedra de Edafologia; ArgentinaFil: Gasparotti, E.. Universidad Nacional del Litoral. Facultad de Ciencias Agrarias; Argentin

A compactness theorem for scalar-flat metrics on manifolds with boundary

Let (M,g) be a compact Riemannian manifold with boundary. This paper is concerned with the set of scalar-flat metrics which are in the conformal class of g and have the boundary as a constant mean curvature hypersurface. We prove that this set is compact for dimensions greater than or equal to 7 under the generic condition that the trace-free 2nd fundamental form of the boundary is nonzero everywhere.Comment: 49 pages. Final version, to appear in Calc. Var. Partial Differential Equation

A multifrequency study of the active star forming complex NGC6357. I. Interstellar structures linked to the open cluster Pis24

We investigate the distribution of the gas (ionized, neutral atomic and molecular), and interstellar dust in the complex star forming region NGC6357 with the goal of studying the interplay between the massive stars in the open cluster Pis24 and the surrounding interstellar matter. Our study of the distribution of the ionized gas is based on narrow-band Hhalfa, [SII], and [OIII] images obtained with the Curtis-Schmidt Camera at CTIO, Chile, and on radio continuum observations at 1465 MHz taken with the VLA with a synthesized beam of 40 arcsec. The distribution of the molecular gas is analyzed using 12CO(1-0) data obtained with the Nanten radiotelescope, Chile (angular resolution = 2.7 arcmin). The interstellar dust distribution was studied using mid-infrared data from the GLIMPSE survey and far-infrared observations from IRAS. NGC6357 consists of a large ionized shell and a number of smaller optical nebulosities. The optical, radio continuum, and near- and mid-IR images delineate the distributions of the ionized gas and interstellar dust in the HII regions and in previously unknown wind blown bubbles linked to the massive stars in Pis24 revealing surrounding photodissociation regions. The CO line observations allowed us to identify the molecular counterparts of the ionized structures in the complex and to confirm the presence of photodissociation regions. The action of the WR star HD157504 on the surrounding gas was also investigated. The molecular mass in the complex is estimated to be (4+/-2)X10^5 Mo. Mean electron densities derived from the radio data suggest electron densities > 200 cm^-3, indicating that NGC6357 is a complex formed in a region of high ambient density. The known massive stars in Pis24 and a number of newly inferred massive stars are mainly responsible for the excitation and photodissociation of the parental molecular cloud.Comment: 16 pages, 9 figures. Accepted for publication in MNRA

YSOVAR: Six pre-main-sequence eclipsing binaries in the Orion Nebula Cluster

Eclipsing binaries (EBs) provide critical laboratories for empirically testing predictions of theoretical models of stellar structure and evolution. Pre-main-sequence (PMS) EBs are particularly valuable, both due to their rarity and the highly dynamic nature of PMS evolution, such that a dense grid of PMS EBs is required to properly calibrate theoretical PMS models. Analyzing multi-epoch, multi-color light curves for 2400 candidateOrion Nebula Cluster (ONC) members from our Warm Spitzer Exploration Science Program YSOVAR, we have identified 12 stars whose light curves show eclipse features. Four of these 12 EBs are previously known. Supplementing our light curves with follow-up optical and near-infrared spectroscopy, we establish two of the candidates as likely field EBs lying behind the ONC. We confirm the remaining six candidate systems, however, as newly identified ONC PMS EBs. These systems increase the number of known PMS EBs by over 50% and include the highest mass (Theta1 Ori E, for which we provide a complete set of well-determined parameters including component masses of 2.807 and 2.797 solar masses) and longest period (ISOY J053505.71-052354.1, P \sim 20 days) PMS EBs currently known. In two cases (Theta1 Ori E and ISOY J053526.88-044730.7), enough photometric and spectroscopic data exist to attempt an orbit solution and derive the system parameters. For the remaining systems, we combine our data with literature information to provide a preliminary characterization sufficient to guide follow-up investigations of these rare, benchmark systems.Comment: Accepted by Ap

Ten Million Degree Gas in M 17 and the Rosette Nebula: X-ray Flows in Galactic H II Regions

We present the first high-spatial-resolution X-ray images of two high-mass star forming regions, the Omega Nebula (M 17) and the Rosette Nebula (NGC 2237--2246), obtained with the Chandra X-ray Observatory Advanced CCD Imaging Spectrometer (ACIS) instrument. The massive clusters powering these H II regions are resolved at the arcsecond level into >900 (M 17) and >300 (Rosette) stellar sources similar to those seen in closer young stellar clusters. However, we also detect soft diffuse X-ray emission on parsec scales that is spatially and spectrally distinct from the point source population. The diffuse emission has luminosity L_x ~ 3.4e33 ergs/s in M~17 with plasma energy components at kT ~0.13 and ~0.6 keV (1.5 and 7 MK), while in Rosette it has L_x \~6e32 ergs/s with plasma energy components at kT ~0.06 and ~0.8 keV (0.7 and 9 MK). This extended emission most likely arises from the fast O-star winds thermalized either by wind-wind collisions or by a termination shock against the surrounding media. We establish that only a small portion of the wind energy and mass appears in the observed diffuse X-ray plasma; in these blister H II regions, we suspect that most of it flows without cooling into the low-density interstellar medium. These data provide compelling observational evidence that strong wind shocks are present in H II regions.Comment: 35 pages, including 11 figures; to appear in ApJ, August 20, 2003. A version with high-resolution figures is available at ftp://ftp.astro.psu.edu/pub/townsley/diffuse.ps.g

Probing the centre of the large circumstellar disc in M17

We investigated the nature of the hitherto unresolved elliptical infrared emission in the centre of the ~20000 AU disc silhouette in M 17. We combined high-resolution JHKsL'M' band imaging carried out with NAOS/CONICA at the VLT with [Fe II] narrow band imaging using SOFI at the NTT. The analysis is supported by Spitzer/GLIMPSE archival data and by already published SINFONI/VLT Integral Field Spectroscopy data. For the first time, we resolve the elongated central infrared emission into a point-source and a jet-like feature that extends to the northeast in the opposite direction of the recently discovered collimated H2 jet. They are both orientated almost perpendicular to the disc plane. In addition, our images reveal a curved southwestern emission nebula whose morphology resembles that of the previously detected northeastern one. Both nebulae are located at a distance of 1500 AU from the disc centre. We describe the infrared point-source in terms of a protostar that is embedded in circumstellar material producing a visual extinction of 60 <= Av <= 82. The observed Ks band magnitude is equivalent to a stellar mass range of 2.8 Msun <= Mstar <= 8 Msun adopting conversions for a main-sequence star. Altogether, we suggest that the large M 17 accretion disc is forming an intermediate to high-mass protostar. Part of the accreted material is expelled through a symmetric bipolar jet/outflow.Comment: 6 pages, 3 figures, accepted by MNRAS (16 May 2008

The radio and IR counterparts of the ring nebula around HD211564

We report the detection of the radio and infrared counterparts of the ring nebula around the WN3(h) star HD211564 (WR152), located to the southwest of the HII region Sh2132. Using radio continuum data from the Canadian Galactic Plane Survey, we identified the radio counterparts of the two concentric rings, of about 9' and 16' in radius, related to the star. After applying a filling factor f = 0.05-0.12, electron densities and ionized masses are in the range 10-16 cm^-3 and 450-700 Mo, respectively. The analysis of the HI gas emission distribution allowed the identification of 5900 Mo of neutral atomic gas with velocities between -52 and -43 km/s probably linked to the nebula. The region of the nebula is almost free of molecular gas. Only four small clumps were detected, with a total molecular mass of 790 Mo. About 310 Mo are related to a small infrared shell-like source linked to the inner ring, which is also detected in the MSX band A. An IRAS YSO candidate is detected in coincidence with the shell-like IR source. We suggest that the optical nebula and its neutral counterparts originated from the stellar winds from the WR star and its massive progenitor, and are evolving in the envelope of a slowly expanding shell centered at (l,b) = (102 30, -0 50), of about 31 pc in radius. The bubble's energy conversion efficiency is in agreement with recent numerical analysis and with observational results.Comment: 11 pages, 7 figures, accepted in MNRA

Bispectrum speckle interferometry of the massive protostellar outflow source IRAS 23151+5912

We present bispectrum speckle interferometry of the massive protostellar object IRAS 23151+5912 in the near-infrared K' band. The reconstructed image shows the diffuse nebulosity north-east of two point-like sources in unprecedented detail. The comparison of our near-infrared image with mm continuum and CO molecular line maps shows that the brighter of the two point sources lies near the center of the mm peak, indicating that it is a high-mass protostar. The nebulosity coincides with the blue-shifted molecular outflow component. The most prominent feature in the nebulosity is a bow-shock-like arc. We assume that this feature is associated with a precessing jet which has created an inward-pointed cone in the swept-up material. We present numerical jet simulations that reproduce this and several other features observed in our speckle image of the nebulosity. Our data also reveal a linear structure connecting the central point source to the extended diffuse nebulosity. This feature may represent the innermost part of a jet that drives the strong molecular outflow (PA ~80 degr) from IRAS 23151+5912. With the aid of radiative transfer calculations, we demonstrate that, in general, the observed inner structures of the circumstellar material surrounding high-mass stars are strongly influenced by the orientation and symmetry of the bipolar cavity.Comment: accepted by Astronomy & Astrophysics; preprints with high-resolution images can be obtained from http://www.mpifr-bonn.mpg.de/staff/tpreibis/iras23151.htm