Policy Analysis: A Checklist of Concerns

In September 1978 Howard Raiffa gave a talk to the Young Scientists Summer Program at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis that was recorded. Since it contains much sage advice for systems analysts, we have obtained his permission to reproduce it as a IIASA Professional Paper so that it will be available to a wider audience

Derivation of a Class of Frequency Distributions Via Bayes’s Theorem

Peer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/146824/1/rssb01496.pd

Conflicting Objectives in Decisions

This book deals with quantitative approaches in making decisions when conflicting objectives are present. This problem is central to many applications of decision analysis, policy analysis, operational research, etc. in a wide range of fields, for example, business, economics, engineering, psychology, and planning. The book surveys different approaches to the same problem area and each approach is discussed in considerable detail so that the coverage of the book is both broad and deep. The problem of conflicting objectives is of paramount importance, both in planned and market economies, and this book represents a cross-cultural mixture of approaches from many countries to the same class of problem

Estimating the Expected Value of Partial Perfect Information in Health Economic Evaluations using Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation

The Expected Value of Perfect Partial Information (EVPPI) is a decision-theoretic measure of the "cost" of parametric uncertainty in decision making used principally in health economic decision making. Despite this decision-theoretic grounding, the uptake of EVPPI calculations in practice has been slow. This is in part due to the prohibitive computational time required to estimate the EVPPI via Monte Carlo simulations. However, recent developments have demonstrated that the EVPPI can be estimated by non-parametric regression methods, which have significantly decreased the computation time required to approximate the EVPPI. Under certain circumstances, high-dimensional Gaussian Process regression is suggested, but this can still be prohibitively expensive. Applying fast computation methods developed in spatial statistics using Integrated Nested Laplace Approximations (INLA) and projecting from a high-dimensional into a low-dimensional input space allows us to decrease the computation time for fitting these high-dimensional Gaussian Processes, often substantially. We demonstrate that the EVPPI calculated using our method for Gaussian Process regression is in line with the standard Gaussian Process regression method and that despite the apparent methodological complexity of this new method, R functions are available in the package BCEA to implement it simply and efficiently

On the minimization of a certain convex function arising in applied decision theory

The author, in an expository paper [4], has presented an algorithm for choosing a non‐negative vector to minimize the function subject to the constraint , where are given vectors and {rm vec M} is positive definite symmetric. In this paper a derivation of this algorithm is presented, including an exact solution in a degenerate case, only alluded to in [4], Several applications, in addition to that of [4], are briefly indicated.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/100328/1/3800150104_ftp.pd

Integrating multicriteria decision analysis and scenario planning : review and extension

Scenario planning and multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA) are two key management science tools used in strategic planning. In this paper, we explore the integration of these two approaches in a coherent manner, recognizing that each adds value to the implementation of the other. Various approaches that have been adopted for such integration are reviewed, with a primary focus on the process of constructing preferences both within and between scenarios. Biases that may be introduced by inappropriate assumptions during such processes are identified, and used to motivate a framework for integrating MCDA and scenario thinking, based on applying MCDA concepts across a range of "metacriteria" (combinations of scenarios and primary criteria). Within this framework, preferences according to each primary criterion can be expressed in the context of different scenarios. The paper concludes with a hypothetical but non-trivial example of agricultural policy planning in a developing country

Long-Range Policy Options for IIASA

Later this month the Council of IIASA will meet to consider many issues of which the most critical will be resolution of the long-term strategy for the Institute. Determination of the optimal strategy will depend upon our judgement of many factors -- the appropriate nature of our scientific program, our constraints of money and of space, the opportunities for IIASA in the world of the late 1970's. These are inherently interrelated: the research we will be able to perform will depend upon available resources, while more resources will be forthcoming for the scientific program of greater promise. This document shall present briefly these issues, the policy choices arising from them, and my personal thoughts about our options

Modeling payback from research into the efficacy of left-ventricular assist devices as destination therapy

Objectives: Ongoing developments in design have improved the outlook for left-ventricular assist device (LVAD) implantation as a therapy in end-stage heart failure. Nevertheless, early cost-effectiveness assessments, based on first-generation devices, have not been encouraging. Against this background, we set out (i) to examine the survival benefit that LVADs would need to generate before they could be deemed cost-effective; (ii) to provide insight into the likelihood that this benefit will be achieved; and (iii) from the perspective of a healthcare provider, to assess the value of discovering the actual size of this benefit by means of a Bayesian value of information analysis. Methods: Cost-effectiveness assessments are made from the perspective of the healthcare provider, using current UK norms for the value of a quality-adjusted life-year (QALY). The treatment model is grounded in published analyses of the Randomized Evaluation of Mechanical Assistance for the Treatment of Congestive Heart Failure (REMATCH) trial of first-generation LVADs, translated into a UK cost setting. The prospects for patient survival with second-generation devices is assessed using Bayesian prior distributions, elicited from a group of leading clinicians in the field. Results: Using established thresholds, cost-effectiveness probabilities under these priors are found to be low (.2 percent) for devices costing as much as £60,000. Sensitivity of the conclusions to both device cost and QALY valuation is examined. Conclusions: In the event that the price of the device in use would reduce to £40,000, the value of the survival information can readily justify investment in further trials

Decision Analysis with Multiple Conflicting Objectives, Preferences and Value Tradeoffs

This working paper is the manuscript for a book titled "Decision Analysis with Multiple Conflicting Objectives: Preferences and Value Tradeoffs" being published by John Wiley and Sons, New York. It is being distributed now in very limited number prior to formal publication both (1) to facilitate the use of these results within the IIASA projects, and (2) to elicit comments on their content. The work reported here began over five years ago when Ralph L. Keeney was affiliated with the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Howard Raiffa was at Harvard University. The finalization of this work has taken place at IIASA where our interactions with various members of the applied projects has helped to make the presentation more useful to potential practitioners. Efforts are now beginning to utilize the theories and procedures outlined in this book on the problems being addressed by the applied projects of IIASA. We plan to report on these developments in the various IIASA publications in the near future