Oil prices, tourism income and economic growth: A structural VAR approach for European Mediterranean countries

In this study, a Structural VAR model is employed to investigate the relationship among oil price shocks, tourism variables and economic indicators in four European Mediterranean countries. In contrast with the current tourism literature, we distinguish between three oil price shocks, namely, supply-side, aggregate demand and oil specific demand shocks. Overall, our results indicate that oil specific demand shocks contemporaneously affect inflation and the tourism sector equity index, whereas these shocks do not seem to have any lagged effects. By contrast, aggregate demand oil price shocks exercise a lagged effect, either directly or indirectly, to tourism generated income and economic growth. The paper does not provide any evidence that supply-side shocks trigger any responses from the remaining variables. Results are important for tourism agents and policy makers, should they need to create hedging strategies against future oil price movements or plan for economic policy developments

Tourism income and economic growth in Greece: Empirical evidence from their cyclical components

This paper examines the relationship between the cyclical components of Greek GDP and international tourism income for Greece for the period 1976–2004. Using spectral analysis the authors find that cyclical fluctuations of GDP have a length of about nine years and that international tourism income has a cycle of about seven years. The volatility of tourism income is more than eight times the volatility of the Greek GDP cycle. VAR analysis shows that the cyclical component of tourism income is significantly influencing the cyclical component of GDP in Greece. The findings support the tourism-led economic growth hypothesis and are of particular interest and importance to policy makers, financial analysts and investors dealing with the Greek tourism industry

Impact of remittances on economic growth in developing countries: The role of openness

The paper examines the empirical relationship between remittances and economic growth for a sample of 62 developing countries over the time period 1990–2014. Remittances seem to promote growth only in the ‘more open’ countries. That is because remittances are in themselves not sufficient for growth. The extent of the benefit depends on domestic institutions and macroeconomic environment in the receiving country. Unlike the ‘less open’ countries, ‘more open’ countries have better institutions and better financial markets to take advantage of the remittances income and channelise them into profitable investments which, in turn, accelerates the rate of economic growth in these countries.N/

How strong is the linkage between tourism and economic growth in Europe?

In this study, we examine the dynamic relationship between tourism growth and economic growth, using a newly introduced spillover index approach. Based on monthly data for 10 European countries over the period 1995{2012, our analysis reveals the following empirical regularities. First, the tourism-economic growth relationship is not stable over time in terms of both magnitude and direction, indicating that the tourism{led economic growth (TLEG) and the economic{driven tourism growth (EDTG) hypotheses are time{dependent. Second, the aforementioned relationship is also highly economic event{dependent, as it is influenced by the Great Recession of 2007 and the ongoing Eurozone debt crisis that began in 2010. Finally, the impact of these economic events is more pronounced in Cyprus,Greece, Portugal and Spain, which are the European countries that have witnessed the greatest economic downturn since 2009. Plausible explanations of these results are provided and policy implications are drawn

Growth by destination: the role of trade in Africa's recent growth episode

Over the period 1990–2009, Africa has experienced a distinct and favourable reversal in its growth fortunes in stark contrast to its performance in the preceding decades, leading to a variety of hypotheses seeking to explain the phenomenon. This paper presents both cross-country and panel-data evidence on the causal factors driving the recent turnaround in Africa's growth and takes the unique approach of disaggregating the separate growth impacts of Africa's bilateral trade with: China, Europe and America. The empirical analysis presented in this paper suggests that the primary and most robust causal factors driving Africa's recent growth turnaround are private sector- and foreign direct investment. Although empirical evidence of the role of bilateral trade openness in Africa's recent growth emerges within a fixed effect estimation setting, these results are not as robust when endogeneity and other issues are fully accounted for. Among the three major bilateral partners, Africa's bilateral trade with China has been a relatively important factor spurring growth on the continent and especially so in resource-rich, oil producing and non-landlocked countries. The econometric results are not as supportive of growth-inducing effects of foreign aid. These findings emerge after applying a variety of panel data specifications to the data, including the recent fixed Effects Filtered (FEF) estimator introduced by Pesaran and Zhou (2014) and the dynamic panel Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimator, which allows for endogeneity between trade and growth

Globalization, Peace & Stability, Governance, and Knowledge Economy

A previous analysis of the impact of formal institutions on the knowledge economy of 22 Middle-Eastern and Sub-Sahara African countries during the 1996-2010 time period concluded that formal institutions were necessary, but inadequate, determinants of the knowledge economy. To extend that study, this paper claims that globalization induces peace and stability, which affects governance and through governance the knowledge economy. The claim addresses one weakness of previous research that did not consider the effects on the knowledge economy of globalization. We model the proposition as a three-stage process in four hypotheses, and estimate each hypothesis using robust estimators that are capable of dealing with the usual statistical problems without sacrificing economic relevance and significance. The results indicate that globalization has varying effects on peace and stability, and peace and stability affect governance differently depending on what kind of globalization induces it. For instance, the effects on governance induced by globalization defined as trade are stronger than those resulting from globalization taken to be foreign direct investment. Hence, we conclude that foreign direct investment is not a powerful mechanism for stimulating and sustaining the knowledge economy in our sample of countries. However, since globalization-induced peace and stability have both positive and negative effects on governance simultaneously, we also conclude that while the prospect for knowledge economy in African countries is dim, it is still realistic and attainable as long as these countries continue to engage in the kind of globalization that does indeed induce peace and stability. We further conclude that there is a need for a sharper focus on economic and institutional governance than on general governance as one possible extension of this paper

The Effect of Ligand and Counter Anion on the Fluorescence Efficiency of Cu (II) Complex during Nitric Oxide Sensing: Experimental Observations and Theoretical Predictions

It has long been understood that nitric oxide (NO) is both benevolent and malevolent to human health. From the biological perspective, NO produced in the body regulates vasodilatation, neurotransmission, and fights the invading pathogens. However, from an air quality perspective, NO is one of the air pollutants directly emitted into the atmosphere and oxidized into nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and plays a key role in the formation of troposphere ozone in the presence of VOCs through photolysis. To predict the pollution levels and provide the level of sensitivity required for pollution alert information, much work has to be done in the development of passive NO sensors. Studies on Cu (II) complexes as fluorescent NO probes as a primary application objective in the detection of biological NO has shown remarkable sensitivities. The objectives of this work are to synthesize Cu (II) complexes of various fluorescent ligands as well as complexes of same ligand but different Cu (II) salts (different counter anions) and to study their fluorescence response toward NO. Complexes (C2, C5, C6A, and C6B) with dansyl as a fluorophore moiety and pyridyl as recognition moiety were synthesized and characterized. C2, C6A, and C6B were investigated for sensing NO. Calibration gas and a G-Cal permeation device were used as a source of NO. Fluorescence enhancements of 1.504 (± 0.018)-, 1.315 (± 0.016)-, and 1.669 (± 0.002)- fold were obtained for C2, C6B(in-situ), and C6B respectively after exposure to excess NO. The relative quantum yields of the complexes after exposure to NO are 2.048(± 0.068), 1.107(± 0.014), and 1.060(± 0.004) for C2, C6A, and C6B respectively. The detection limits obtained are between 1 – 2 ppm with C6A performing better than the other two. Thin films of C6A complex were also investigated for detecting NO using AFM, SEM, and Raman spectroscopy. Thin film properties indicate distinct differences between with and without NO. Finally, molecular orbital and excitation energies of the free ligand (L2), its complex (C2), and C2-NO were calculated to propose the mechanism of Cu (II) complex NO sensor

SOCIO-ECONOMIC FACTORS AFFECTING COMMUNITY’S PERCEPTION TOWARDS SOIL AND WATER CONSERVATION PRACTICES IN GECHI WOREDA, SOUTH WESTERN ETHIOPIA

The study was conducted in Gechi Woreda district of Ethiopia to investigate the community perceptions and the strategies used in soil and water conservation practices, particularly the Soil Bund. To achieve this objective, structured, semistructured questionnaire and focus group discussion were used for data collection. Logistic regression model was used to analyze determinants of farmers’ perception of soil water conservation practices of the sampled farmers in relation to their socio-economic conditions. The study showed that majority of the respondents positively perceived the soil and water conservation practices (83%), and shortage of labor (31.5%) and lack of accountability (26.3%) were the major determinant factors of the structure. The result also shows farmers’ perception towards the types of soil and water conservation measures practiced in the study area, where the bund integrated with vetiver grass (Vetiveria zizanioides L.) was highly preferred and acknowledged by the farmers. The result of the regression model also showed that age of the household head (AGE) (-0.123*), farmers’ land size (LS) (-2.870*) and livestock number (LSTK) (-0.418*) had significant negative influence on the perception of farmers in Gechi Woreda. These imply that younger households accepted the soil and water conservation practices than the older ones as the younger are energetic in stablishing the soil and water conservation practices. Also, a unit increase in the number of livestock decreases the farmers’ acceptance of soil bund in the Gechi Woreda, where free grazing is commonly used and is a challenge for the suitability of the conservation practices. The Educational status (EDCATN) (3.895*) and family size (FS) (1.361**) of the interviewed household head is significantly and positively determined farmers’ perception of soil bund. Literate households highly understood the costs of soil erosion and benefits of soil bund and invested more than the illiterate households. Since the construction of soil bund is labor intensive the households with large family members accepted and used soil and water conservation practices while the households with small number of family members did not. Therefore, even though there are a determinant factors, using soil and water conservation practices particularly the integration of physical structure with biological measure plays a significant role for socio-economic improvement of community living in the given areas, through enhancing land productivity

Dependency Ratio and the Economic Growth Puzzle in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Conventional growth theories in the literature explain the poor economic performance of African economies by stressing the inadequacy of savings, human capital, and poor institutional quality. However, the key question is how to enhance savings for the accumulation of both physical and human capital in order to spur growth. A common thread that runs through the existing models is that the dependency ratio, not only remains constant over time, but has no long-run negative impact on economic growth. By relaxing this rigid assumption, this paper constructs a growth estimating equation which accommodates this demographic factor. The analytic results from the modified model suggest that economies with high dependency ratio face their stable equilibrium at lower levels of their income per capita. Moreover, econometric results from analysis of panel data drawn from Sub-Saharan Africa economies suggest that the growth puzzle can be well explained in terms of the demographic factors, especially the level and dynamics of dependency ratio of the region.Sub-Saharan Africa, growth model, dependency ratio, steady state, panel data, fixed-effects model, random-effects model

Assessing the Impact of Development Cooperation: the Case of African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) and U.S. Imports from Sub-Saharan Africa.

We evaluate the impact of the unilateral trade policy concession known as African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) on U.S. imports from eligible Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries. Using U.S.-SSA countries’ trade data that span the years 1991-2006, we find that AGOA has contributed to the initiation of new and the intensification of existing U.S. imports in both manufactured and non-manufactured goods and several product categories. However, compared to its import initiation impact, the import intensification effect of the Act has been marginal. Our results have important policy implication for further intensification of African exports to the U.S. markets.AGOA, Trade Agreements, Trade Initiation, Trade Intensification