Lessons from China for Africa

China has been the most successful developing country in this modern era of globalization. Since initiating economic reform after 1978, its economy has expanded at a steady rate over 8 percent per capita, fueling historically unprecedented poverty reduction (the poverty rate declined from over 60 percent to 7 percent in 2007). Other developing countries struggling to grow and reduce poverty are naturally interested in what has been the source of this impressive growth and what, if any, lessons they can take from China. This paper focuses on four features of modern China that have changed significantly between the pre-reform period and today. The Chinese themselves call their reform program Gai Ge Kai Feng,"change the system, open the door.""Change the system"means altering incentives and ownership, that is, shifting the economy from near total state ownership to one in which private enterprise is dominant."Open the door"means exactly what it says, liberalizing trade and direct investment. A third lesson is the development of high-quality infrastructure: China's good roads, reliable power, world-class ports, and excellent cell phone coverage throughout the country are apparent to any visitor. What is less well known is that most of this infrastructure has been developed through a policy of"cost recovery"that prices infrastructure services at levels sufficient to finance the capital cost as well as operations and maintenance. A fourth important lesson is China's careful attention to agriculture and rural development, complemented by rural-urban migration.Transport Economics Policy&Planning,Environmental Economics&Policies,Emerging Markets,Population Policies,Debt Markets

Extending Constraint Preconditioners for Saddle Point Problems

The problem of finding good preconditioners for the numerical solution of a certain important class of indefinite linear systems is considered. These systems are of a block 2 by 2 saddle point structure. In "Constraint preconditioning for indefinite linear systems" SIAM J. Matrix Anal. Appl., 21 (2000), Keller, Gould and Wathen introduced the idea of using constraint preconditioners that have a specific 2 by 2 block structure for the case of the (2,2) matrix block being zero. We shall extend this idea by allowing the (2,2) block to be non-zero. Results concerning the spectrum and form of the eigenvectors are presented, as are numerical results to validate our conclusions

Asian century or multi-polar century ?

The"rise of Asia"is something of a myth. During 1990-2005 China accounted for 28 percent of global growth, measured at purchasing power parity (PPP). India accounted for 9 percent. The rest of developing Asia, with nearly a billion people, accounted for only 7 percent, the same as Latin America. Hence there is no general success of Asian developing economies. China has grown better than its developing neighbors because it started its reform with a better base of human capital, has been more open to foreign trade and investment, and created good investment climates in coastal cities. China's success changes the equation going forward: its wages are now two to three times higher than in the populous Asian countries (Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, Pakistan, and Vietnam), and China will become an ever-larger importer of natural resource and labor-intensive products. Developing countries need to become more open and improve their investment climates to benefit from these opportunities. China itself faces new challenges that could hamper its further development: unsustainable trade imbalance with the United States, energy and water scarcity and unsustainable use of natural resources, and growing inequality and social tension. To address the first two of these challenges, good cooperation between China and the United States is essential. The author concludes that we are more likely to be facing a"multi-polar century,"than an Asian century.Economic Theory&Research,Population Policies,Energy Production and Transportation,Achieving Shared Growth,Trade and Regional Integration

Poverty, inequality, and social disparities during China's economic reform

China has been the most rapidly growing economy in the world over the past 25 years. This growth has fueled a remarkable increase in per capita income and a decline in the poverty rate from 64 percent at the beginning of reform to 10 percent in 2004. At the same time, however, different kinds of disparities have increased. Income inequality has risen, propelled by the rural-urban income gap and by the growing disparity between highly educated urban professionals and the urban working class. There have also been increases in inequality of health and education outcomes. Some rise in inequality was inevitable as China introduced a market system, but inequality may have been exacerbated rather than mitigated by a number of policy features. Restrictions on rural-urban migration have limited opportunities for the relatively poor rural population. The inability to sell or mortgage rural land has furtherreduced opportunities. China has a uniquely decentralized fiscal system that has relied on local government to fund basic health and education. The result has been that poor villages could not afford to provide good services, and poor households could not afford the high private costs of basic public services. Ironically, the large trade surplus that China has built up in recent years is a further problem, in that it stimulates an urban industrial sector that no longer creates many jobs while restricting the government's ability to increase spending to improve services and address disparities. The government's recent policy shift to encourage migration, fund education and health for poor areas and poor households, and rebalance the economy away from investment and exports toward domestic consumption and public services should help reduce social disparities.Population Policies,Rural Poverty Reduction,Achieving Shared Growth,Inequality,Health Monitoring&Evaluation

Growth is good for the poor

When average income rises, the average incomes of the poorest fifth of society rise proportionately. This is a consequence of the strong empirical regularity that the share of income accruing to the bottom quintile does not vary systematically with average income. The authors document this empirical regularity in a sample of 92 countries spanning the past four decades and show that it holds across regions, periods, income levels, and growth rates. The authors next ask whether the factors that explain cross-country differences in the growth rates of average incomes have differential effects on the poorest fifth of society. They find that several determinants of growth--such as good rule of law, opennness to international trade, and developed financial markets--have little systematic effect on the share of income that accrues to the bottom quintile. Consequently, these factors benefit the poorest fifth of society as much as everyone else. Thee is some weak evidence that stabilization from high inflation and reductions in the overall size of government not only increase growth but also increase the income share of the poorest fifth in society. Finally, the authors examine several factors commonly thought to disproportionately benefit the poorest in society, but find little evidence of their effects. The absence of robust findings emphasizes that relatively little is known about the broad forces that account for the cross-country and intertemporal variation in the share of income accruing to the poorest fifth of society.Economic Theory&Research,Environmental Economics&Policies,Services&Transfers to Poor,Economic Conditions and Volatility,Poverty Impact Evaluation,Inequality,Governance Indicators,Achieving Shared Growth,Economic Theory&Research,Environmental Economics&Policies

Aid, policies, and growth

The authors of this paper use a new database on foreign aid to examine the relationships among foreign aid, economic policies, and growth of per capita GDP. In panel growth regressions for 56 developing countries and 6 four-year periods (1970-93), they find that the policies that have a great effect on growth are those related to fiscal surplus, inflation, and trade openness. They construct an index for those three policies and have that index interact with foreign aid. They have instruments for both aid and aid interacting with policies. They find that aid has a positive impact on growth in developing countries with good fiscal, monetary and trade policies. In the presence of poor policies, aid has no positive effect on growth. This result is robust in a variety of specifications, which include or exclude middle-income countries, include or exclude outliers, and treat policies as exogenous or endogenous. They examine the determinants of policy and find no evidence that aid has systematically affected policies, either for good or for ill. They estimate an aid allocation equation and show that any tendency for aid to reward good policies has been overwhelmed by donors'pursuit of their own strategic interests. In a counterfactual, they reallocate aid, reduce the role of donor interests and increasing the importance of policy. Such a reallocation would have a large positive effect on developing countries'growth rates.Gender and Development,Development Economics&Aid Effectiveness,Economic Theory&Research,Environmental Economics&Policies,School Health,Achieving Shared Growth,Governance Indicators,Inequality,Economic Theory&Research,Development Economics&Aid Effectiveness

Neither a borrower nor a lender : does China's zero net foreign asset position make economic sense?

China in the past few years has emerged as a net foreign creditor on the international scene with net foreign assets slightly greater than zero percent of wealth. This is surprising given that China is a relatively poor country with a capital-labor ratio about one-fifth the world average and one-tenth the U.S. level. The main questions that the authors address are whether it makes economic sense for China to be a net creditor and how they see China's net foreign asset position evolving over the next 20 years. They calibrate a theoretical model of international capital flows featuring diminishing returns, production risk, and sovereign risk. The calibrations for China yield a predicted net foreign asset position of -17 percent of China's wealth. The authors also estimate nonstructural cross-country regressions of determinants of net foreign assets in which China is always a significant outlier with 5 to 7 percentage points more of net foreign assets relative to wealth than is predicted by its characteristics. China's extensive capital controls can explain why its current net foreign asset position is far away from what is predicted by open-economy models and cross-country empirics. It seems reasonable to assume that China's international financial integration will increase over time. The authors calibrate and predict different scenarios out to 2025. These scenarios are necessarily speculative, but it is interesting that they typically imply negative net foreign asset positions between 3 and 9 percent of wealth. What may be counter-intuitive for many policymakers is that successful institutional reform and productivity growth are likely to lead to more negative net foreign asset positions than occurs with stagnation. Starting from China's zero net foreign assets position, it would take current account deficits in the range of 2-5 percent of GDP to reach any of these net foreign assets positions. These are not unreasonable deficits, but they require a large adjustment from the present 6 percent of GDP current account surplus.Economic Theory&Research,Investment and Investment Climate,Capital Flows,Economic Growth,Banking Law

Aid, the incentive regime, and poverty reduction

Spurring growth in the developing world is one stated objective of foreign aid. Another, more commonly cited, objective is reducing poverty. Generally poverty reduction and growth go hand in hand, but could aid mitigate poverty without measurably affecting growth? The authors examine how foreign aid affects infant mortality -- an important social indicator that provides indirect evidence that the benefits of development are reaching people everywhere. They conclude that in developing countries with weak economic management -- evidenced by poor property rights, high levels of corruption, closed trade regimes, and macroeconomic instability -- there is no relationship between aid and the change in infant mortality. In distorted environments, development projects promoted by donors tend to fail. And aid resources are typically fungible, so the aid does not in fact finance these projects. Aid finances the whole public sector at the margin, which is why the quality of management is the key to effective assistance. A government that cannot put effective development policies in place is unlikely to oversee the effective use of foreign aid. On the other hand, there is a relationship between aid and a change in infant mortality when the recipient country has relatively good management. When management is good, additional aid worth 1 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has a powerful effect, reducing infant mortality by 0.9 percent. In other words, aid spurs growth and improvements in social indicators only in a good policy environment. These findings strengthen the case for targeting foreign aid to countries that have improved their economic policy. But after controlling for per capita income and population, there has been almost no relationship between countries'economic policies and the amount of aid they get. The relatively indiscriminate allocation of assistance is one factor undermining the potential impact of aid.Labor Policies,Public Health Promotion,Health Economics&Finance,Environmental Economics&Policies,Health Monitoring&Evaluation,Achieving Shared Growth,Health Economics&Finance,Health Monitoring&Evaluation,Governance Indicators,Inequality

Aid, policies, and growth : revisiting the evidence

The authors revisit the relationship between aid and growth using a new data set focusing on the 1990s. The evidence supports the view that the impact of aid depends on the quality of state institutions and policies. The authors use an overall measure of institutions and policies popular in the empirical growth literature. The interaction of aid and institutional quality has a robust positive relationship with growth that is strongest in instrumental variable regressions. There is no support for the competing hypothesis that aid has the same positive effect everywhere.The authors also show that in the 1990s the allocation of aid to low-income countries favored those with better institutional quality. This"selectivity"is sensible if aid in fact is more productive in sound institutional and policy environments. The cross-country evidence on aid effectiveness is supported by other types of information as well: case studies, project-level evidence, and opinion polls support the view that corrupt institutions and weak policies limit the impact of financial assistance for development.Decentralization,Health Economics&Finance,Development Economics&Aid Effectiveness,Gender and Development,School Health,Governance Indicators,Achieving Shared Growth,Development Economics&Aid Effectiveness,Public Institution Analysis&Assessment,School Health

Institutions, trade, and growth : revisiting the evidence

Several recent papers have attempted to identify the partial effects of trade integration and institutional quality on long-run growth using the geographical determinants of trade and the historical determinants of institutions as instruments. The authors show that many of the specifications in these papers are weaklyidentified despite the apparently good performance of the instruments in first-stage regressions. Consequently, they argue that the cross-country variation in institutions, trade, and their geographical and historical determinants is not very informative about the partial effects of these variables on long-run growth.Environmental Economics&Policies,Poverty Monitoring&Analysis,Payment Systems&Infrastructure,Statistical&Mathematical Sciences,Economic Theory&Research,Economic Theory&Research,Governance Indicators,Environmental Economics&Policies,Poverty Monitoring&Analysis,Statistical&Mathematical Sciences