The role of sexually transmitted infections in male circumcision effectiveness against HIV – insights from clinical trial simulation

BACKGROUND: A landmark randomised trial of male circumcision (MC) in Orange Farm, South Africa recently showed a large and significant reduction in risk of HIV infection, reporting MC effectiveness of 61% (95% CI: 34%–77%). Additionally, two further randomised trials of MC in Kisumu, Kenya and Rakai, Uganda were recently stopped early to report 53% and 48% effectiveness, respectively. Since MC may protect against both HIV and certain sexually transmitted infections (STI), which are themselves cofactors of HIV infection, an important question is the extent to which this estimated effectiveness against HIV is mediated by the protective effect of circumcision against STI. The answer lies in the trial data if the appropriate statistical analyses can be identified to estimate the separate efficacies against HIV and STI, which combine to determine overall effectiveness. OBJECTIVES AND METHODS: Focusing on the MC trial in Kisumu, we used a stochastic prevention trial simulator (1) to determine whether statistical analyses can validly estimate efficacy, (2) to determine whether MC efficacy against STI alone can produce large effectiveness against HIV and (3) to estimate the fraction of all HIV infections prevented that are attributable to efficacy against STI when both efficacies combine. RESULTS: Valid estimation of separate efficacies against HIV and STI as well as MC effectiveness is feasible with available STI and HIV trial data, under Kisumu trial conditions. Under our parameter assumptions, high overall effectiveness of MC against HIV was observed only with a high MC efficacy against HIV and was not possible on the basis of MC efficacy against STI alone. The fraction of all HIV infections prevented which were attributable to MC efficacy against STI was small, except when efficacy of MC specifically against HIV was very low. In the three MC trials which reported between 48% and 61% effectiveness (combining STI and HIV efficacies), the fraction of HIV infections prevented in circumcised males which were attributable to STI was unlikely to be more than 10% to 20%. CONCLUSION: Estimation of efficacy, attributable fraction and effectiveness leads to improved understanding of trial results, gives trial results greater external validity and is essential to determine the broader public health impact of circumcision to men and women

Mortality and pulmonary complications in patients undergoing surgery with perioperative SARS-CoV-2 infection: an international cohort study

Background: The impact of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) on postoperative recovery needs to be understood to inform clinical decision making during and after the COVID-19 pandemic. This study reports 30-day mortality and pulmonary complication rates in patients with perioperative SARS-CoV-2 infection. Methods: This international, multicentre, cohort study at 235 hospitals in 24 countries included all patients undergoing surgery who had SARS-CoV-2 infection confirmed within 7 days before or 30 days after surgery. The primary outcome measure was 30-day postoperative mortality and was assessed in all enrolled patients. The main secondary outcome measure was pulmonary complications, defined as pneumonia, acute respiratory distress syndrome, or unexpected postoperative ventilation. Findings: This analysis includes 1128 patients who had surgery between Jan 1 and March 31, 2020, of whom 835 (74·0%) had emergency surgery and 280 (24·8%) had elective surgery. SARS-CoV-2 infection was confirmed preoperatively in 294 (26·1%) patients. 30-day mortality was 23·8% (268 of 1128). Pulmonary complications occurred in 577 (51·2%) of 1128 patients; 30-day mortality in these patients was 38·0% (219 of 577), accounting for 81·7% (219 of 268) of all deaths. In adjusted analyses, 30-day mortality was associated with male sex (odds ratio 1·75 [95% CI 1·28–2·40], p\textless0·0001), age 70 years or older versus younger than 70 years (2·30 [1·65–3·22], p\textless0·0001), American Society of Anesthesiologists grades 3–5 versus grades 1–2 (2·35 [1·57–3·53], p\textless0·0001), malignant versus benign or obstetric diagnosis (1·55 [1·01–2·39], p=0·046), emergency versus elective surgery (1·67 [1·06–2·63], p=0·026), and major versus minor surgery (1·52 [1·01–2·31], p=0·047). Interpretation: Postoperative pulmonary complications occur in half of patients with perioperative SARS-CoV-2 infection and are associated with high mortality. Thresholds for surgery during the COVID-19 pandemic should be higher than during normal practice, particularly in men aged 70 years and older. Consideration should be given for postponing non-urgent procedures and promoting non-operative treatment to delay or avoid the need for surgery. Funding: National Institute for Health Research (NIHR), Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland, Bowel and Cancer Research, Bowel Disease Research Foundation, Association of Upper Gastrointestinal Surgeons, British Association of Surgical Oncology, British Gynaecological Cancer Society, European Society of Coloproctology, NIHR Academy, Sarcoma UK, Vascular Society for Great Britain and Ireland, and Yorkshire Cancer Research

Search for gravitational waves associated with gamma-ray bursts detected by Fermi and Swift during the LIGO–Virgo run O3b

We search for gravitational-wave signals associated with gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) detected by the Fermi and Swift satellites during the second half of the third observing run of Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo (2019 November 1 15:00 UTC–2020 March 27 17:00 UTC). We conduct two independent searches: a generic gravitational-wave transients search to analyze 86 GRBs and an analysis to target binary mergers with at least one neutron star as short GRB progenitors for 17 events. We find no significant evidence for gravitational-wave signals associated with any of these GRBs. A weighted binomial test of the combined results finds no evidence for subthreshold gravitational-wave signals associated with this GRB ensemble either. We use several source types and signal morphologies during the searches, resulting in lower bounds on the estimated distance to each GRB. Finally, we constrain the population of low-luminosity short GRBs using results from the first to the third observing runs of Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo. The resulting population is in accordance with the local binary neutron star merger rate

Enhancing psychosocial support for HIV positive adolescents in Harare, Zimbabwe.

BACKGROUND: There is a recognized gap in the evidence base relating to the nature and components of interventions to address the psycho-social needs of HIV positive young people. We used mixed methods research to strengthen a community support group intervention for HIV positive young people based in Harare, Zimbabwe. METHODS: A quantitative questionnaire was administered to HIV positive Africaid support group attendees. Afterwards, qualitative data were collected from young people aged 15-18 through tape-recorded in-depth interviews (n=10), 3 focus group discussions (FGDs) and 16 life history narratives. Data were also collected from caregivers, health care workers, and community members through FGDs (n=6 groups) and in-depth interviews (n=12). Quantitative data were processed and analysed using STATA 10. Qualitative data were analysed using thematic analysis. RESULTS: 229/310 young people completed the quantitative questionnaire (74% participation). Median age was 14 (range 6-18 years); 59% were female. Self-reported adherence to antiretrovirals was sub-optimal. Psychological well being was poor (median score on Shona Symptom Questionnaire 9/14); 63% were at risk of depression. Qualitative findings suggested that challenges faced by positive children include verbal abuse, stigma, and discrimination. While data showed that support group attendance is helpful, young people stressed that life outside the confines of the group was more challenging. Caregivers felt ill-equipped to support the children in their care. These data, combined with a previously validated conceptual framework for family-centred interventions, were used to guide the development of the existing programme of adolescent support groups into a more comprehensive evidence-based psychosocial support programme encompassing caregiver and household members. CONCLUSIONS: This study allowed us to describe the lived experiences of HIV positive young people and their caregivers in Zimbabwe. The findings contributed to the enhancement of Africaid's existing programme of support to better promote psychological well being and ART adherence

Impaired CD4-cell immune reconstitution upon HIV therapy in patients with toxoplasmic encephalitis compared to patients with pneumocystis pneumonia as AIDS indicating disease

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Objectives</p> <p>There is only little data on immune reconstitution in antiretroviral naïve AIDS-patients with toxoplasmosis. The observation of several cases with reduced increase of CD4-cells upon start of antiretroviral treatment (ART) prompted us to investigate the topic using the ClinSurv cohort.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>17 German HIV treatment centers contribute to ClinSurv, a multicentre observational cohort under the auspices of the Robert Koch Institute. We retrospectively selected all antiretroviral-naïve patients with toxoplasmic encephalitis (TE) and -as comparator group -with pneumocystosis (PCP) between January 1999 and December 2005.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>A total of 257 patients were included in the analysis, 61 with TE and 196 with PCP. Demographic baseline data showed differences with regard to gender, transmission group, and baseline CD4⁺counts (60.9 vs. 44.7/μl, p = 0.022). After ART-initiation the increase in CD4⁺lymphocytes was lower in the TE-versus the PCP-group in the first, second and fourth three-month-period (74.4 vs. 120.3/μl, p = 0.006; 96.6 vs. 136.2/μl, p = 0.021; 156.5 vs. 211.5/μl, p = 0.013). Viral load (VL) was higher in the PCP-group at baseline (4.46 log₁₀cop/ml vs. 5.00 log₁₀cop/ml, p = 0.008), while virological success of ART was equal.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Our data show for the first time that the average CD4⁺T-cell increase of patients with toxoplasmosis is impaired compared to PCP-patients. Most clinicians would not be prepared to discontinue follow-up TE-therapy unless CD4⁺counts of 200/μl are reached. Explanation for our finding might be the myelosuppressive side effect of pyrimethamine, possible interactions of toxoplasmosis therapy with ART, or an unknown direct biological influence of toxoplasmosis on immune restoration.</p