Risk, Unexpected Uncertainty, and Estimation Uncertainty: Bayesian Learning in Unstable Settings

Recently, evidence has emerged that humans approach learning using Bayesian updating rather than (model-free) reinforcement algorithms in a six-arm restless bandit problem. Here, we investigate what this implies for human appreciation of uncertainty. In our task, a Bayesian learner distinguishes three equally salient levels of uncertainty. First, the Bayesian perceives irreducible uncertainty or risk: even knowing the payoff probabilities of a given arm, the outcome remains uncertain. Second, there is (parameter) estimation uncertainty or ambiguity: payoff probabilities are unknown and need to be estimated. Third, the outcome probabilities of the arms change: the sudden jumps are referred to as unexpected uncertainty. We document how the three levels of uncertainty evolved during the course of our experiment and how it affected the learning rate. We then zoom in on estimation uncertainty, which has been suggested to be a driving force in exploration, in spite of evidence of widespread aversion to ambiguity. Our data corroborate the latter. We discuss neural evidence that foreshadowed the ability of humans to distinguish between the three levels of uncertainty. Finally, we investigate the boundaries of human capacity to implement Bayesian learning. We repeat the experiment with different instructions, reflecting varying levels of structural uncertainty. Under this fourth notion of uncertainty, choices were no better explained by Bayesian updating than by (model-free) reinforcement learning. Exit questionnaires revealed that participants remained unaware of the presence of unexpected uncertainty and failed to acquire the right model with which to implement Bayesian updating

Building nonparametric nn-body force fields using Gaussian process regression

Constructing a classical potential suited to simulate a given atomic system is a remarkably difficult task. This chapter presents a framework under which this problem can be tackled, based on the Bayesian construction of nonparametric force fields of a given order using Gaussian process (GP) priors. The formalism of GP regression is first reviewed, particularly in relation to its application in learning local atomic energies and forces. For accurate regression it is fundamental to incorporate prior knowledge into the GP kernel function. To this end, this chapter details how properties of smoothness, invariance and interaction order of a force field can be encoded into corresponding kernel properties. A range of kernels is then proposed, possessing all the required properties and an adjustable parameter $n$ governing the interaction order modelled. The order $n$ best suited to describe a given system can be found automatically within the Bayesian framework by maximisation of the marginal likelihood. The procedure is first tested on a toy model of known interaction and later applied to two real materials described at the DFT level of accuracy. The models automatically selected for the two materials were found to be in agreement with physical intuition. More in general, it was found that lower order (simpler) models should be chosen when the data are not sufficient to resolve more complex interactions. Low $n$ GPs can be further sped up by orders of magnitude by constructing the corresponding tabulated force field, here named "MFF".Comment: 31 pages, 11 figures, book chapte

Does weight loss improve semen quality and reproductive hormones? results from a cohort of severely obese men

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>A high body mass index (BMI) has been associated with reduced semen quality and male subfecundity, but no studies following obese men losing weight have yet been published. We examined semen quality and reproductive hormones among morbidly obese men and studied if weight loss improved the reproductive indicators.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>In this pilot cohort study, 43 men with BMI > 33 kg/m²were followed through a 14 week residential weight loss program. The participants provided semen samples and had blood samples drawn, filled in questionnaires, and had clinical examinations before and after the intervention. Conventional semen characteristics as well as sperm DNA integrity, analysed by the sperm chromatin structure assay (SCSA) were obtained. Serum levels of testosterone, estradiol, sex hormone-binding globulin (SHBG), luteinizing hormone (LH), follicle-stimulating hormone (FSH), anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH) and inhibin B (Inh-B) were measured.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Participants were from 20 to 59 years of age (median = 32) with BMI ranging from 33 to 61 kg/m². At baseline, after adjustment for potential confounders, BMI was inversely associated with sperm concentration (p = 0.02), total sperm count (p = 0.02), sperm morphology (p = 0.04), and motile sperm (p = 0.005) as well as testosterone (p = 0.04) and Inh-B (p = 0.04) and positively associated to estradiol (p < 0.005). The median (range) percentage weight loss after the intervention was 15% (3.5 - 25.4). Weight loss was associated with an increase in total sperm count (p = 0.02), semen volume (p = 0.04), testosterone (p = 0.02), SHBG (p = 0.03) and AMH (p = 0.02). The group with the largest weight loss had a statistically significant increase in total sperm count [193 millions (95% CI: 45; 341)] and normal sperm morphology [4% (95% CI: 1; 7)].</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>This study found obesity to be associated with poor semen quality and altered reproductive hormonal profile. Weight loss may potentially lead to improvement in semen quality. Whether the improvement is a result of the reduction in body weight per se or improved lifestyles remains unknown.</p

Application of Autologous Bone Marrow Derived Mesenchymal Stem Cells to an Ovine Model of Growth Plate Cartilage Injury

Injury to growth plate cartilage in children can lead to bone bridge formation and result in bone growth deformities, a significant clinical problem currently lacking biological treatment. Mesenchymal stem/stromal cells (MSC) offer a promising therapeutic option for regeneration of damaged cartilage, due to their self renewing and multi-lineage differentiation attributes. Although some small animal model studies highlight the therapeutic potential of MSC for growth plate repair, translational research in large animal models, which more closely resemble the human condition, are lacking. Our laboratory has recently characterised MSCs derived from ovine bone marrow, and demonstrated these cells form cartilage-like tissue when transplanted within the gelatin sponge, Gelfoam, in vivo. In the current study, autologous bone marrow MSC were seeded into Gelfoam scaffold containing TGF-β1, and transplanted into a surgically created defect of the proximal ovine tibial growth plate. Examination of implants at 5 week post-operatively revealed transplanted autologous MSC failed to form new cartilage structure at the defect site, but contributed to an increase in formation of a dense fibrous tissue. Importantly, the extent of osteogenesis was diminished, and bone bridge formation was not accelerated due to transplantation of MSCs or the gelatin scaffold. The current study represents the first work that has utilised this ovine large animal model to investigate whether autologous bone marrow derived MSC can be used to initiate regeneration at the injured growth plate

Renal artery stenosis-when to screen, what to stent?

Renal artery stensosis (RAS) continues to be a problem for clinicians, with no clear consensus on how to investigate and assess the clinical significance of stenotic lesions and manage the findings. RAS caused by fibromuscular dysplasia is probably commoner than previously appreciated, should be actively looked for in younger hypertensive patients and can be managed successfully with angioplasty. Atheromatous RAS is associated with increased incidence of cardiovascular events and increased cardiovascular mortality, and is likely to be seen with increasing frequency. Evidence from large clinical trials has led clinicians away from recommending interventional revascularisation towards aggressive medical management. There is now interest in looking more closely at patient selection for intervention, with focus on intervening only in patients with the highest-risk presentations such as flash pulmonary oedema, rapidly declining renal function and severe resistant hypertension. The potential benefits in terms of improving hard cardiovascular outcomes may outweigh the risks of intervention in this group, and further research is needed

CD4+ Natural Regulatory T Cells Prevent Experimental Cerebral Malaria via CTLA-4 When Expanded In Vivo

Studies in malaria patients indicate that higher frequencies of peripheral blood CD4+ Foxp3+ CD25+ regulatory T (Treg) cells correlate with increased blood parasitemia. This observation implies that Treg cells impair pathogen clearance and thus may be detrimental to the host during infection. In C57BL/6 mice infected with Plasmodium berghei ANKA, depletion of Foxp3+ cells did not improve parasite control or disease outcome. In contrast, elevating frequencies of natural Treg cells in vivo using IL-2/anti-IL-2 complexes resulted in complete protection against severe disease. This protection was entirely dependent upon Foxp3+ cells and resulted in lower parasite biomass, impaired antigen-specific CD4+ T and CD8+ T cell responses that would normally promote parasite tissue sequestration in this model, and reduced recruitment of conventional T cells to the brain. Furthermore, Foxp3+ cell-mediated protection was dependent upon CTLA-4 but not IL-10. These data show that T cell-mediated parasite tissue sequestration can be reduced by regulatory T cells in a mouse model of malaria, thereby limiting malaria-induced immune pathology

IP-10-Mediated T Cell Homing Promotes Cerebral Inflammation over Splenic Immunity to Malaria Infection

Plasmodium falciparum malaria causes 660 million clinical cases with over 2 million deaths each year. Acquired host immunity limits the clinical impact of malaria infection and provides protection against parasite replication. Experimental evidence indicates that cell-mediated immune responses also result in detrimental inflammation and contribute to severe disease induction. In both humans and mice, the spleen is a crucial organ involved in blood stage malaria clearance, while organ-specific disease appears to be associated with sequestration of parasitized erythrocytes in vascular beds and subsequent recruitment of inflammatory leukocytes. Using a rodent model of cerebral malaria, we have previously found that the majority of T lymphocytes in intravascular infiltrates of cerebral malaria-affected mice express the chemokine receptor CXCR3. Here we investigated the effect of IP-10 blockade in the development of experimental cerebral malaria and the induction of splenic anti-parasite immunity. We found that specific neutralization of IP-10 over the course of infection and genetic deletion of this chemokine in knockout mice reduces cerebral intravascular inflammation and is sufficient to protect P. berghei ANKA-infected mice from fatality. Furthermore, our results demonstrate that lack of IP-10 during infection significantly reduces peripheral parasitemia. The increased resistance to infection observed in the absence of IP-10-mediated cell trafficking was associated with retention and subsequent expansion of parasite-specific T cells in spleens of infected animals, which appears to be advantageous for the control of parasite burden. Thus, our results demonstrate that modulating homing of cellular immune responses to malaria is critical for reaching a balance between protective immunity and immunopathogenesis

PTSD-8: A Short PTSD Inventory

Traumatic events pose great challenges on mental health services in scarcity of specialist trauma clinicians and services. Simple short screening instruments for detecting adverse psychological responses are needed. Several brief screening instruments have been developed. However, some are limited, especially in relation to reflecting the posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) diagnosis. Recently, several studies have challenged pre-existing ideas about PTSD’s latent structure. Factor analytic research currently supports two four factor models. One particular model contains a dysphoria factor which has been associated with depression and anxiety. The symptoms in this factor have been hailed as less specific to PTSD. The scope of this article is therefore to present a short screening instrument, based on this research; Posttraumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) – 8 items. The PTSD-8 is shown to have good psychometric properties in three independent samples of whiplash patients (n=1710), rape victims (n=305), and disaster victims (n=516). Good test-rest reliability is also shown in a pilot study of young adults from families with alcohol problems (n=56)

Search for new phenomena in final states with an energetic jet and large missing transverse momentum in pp collisions at √ s = 8 TeV with the ATLAS detector

Results of a search for new phenomena in final states with an energetic jet and large missing transverse momentum are reported. The search uses 20.3 fb−1 of √ s = 8 TeV data collected in 2012 with the ATLAS detector at the LHC. Events are required to have at least one jet with pT > 120 GeV and no leptons. Nine signal regions are considered with increasing missing transverse momentum requirements between Emiss T > 150 GeV and Emiss T > 700 GeV. Good agreement is observed between the number of events in data and Standard Model expectations. The results are translated into exclusion limits on models with either large extra spatial dimensions, pair production of weakly interacting dark matter candidates, or production of very light gravitinos in a gauge-mediated supersymmetric model. In addition, limits on the production of an invisibly decaying Higgs-like boson leading to similar topologies in the final state are presente

Chinese characters reveal impacts of prior experience on very early stages of perception

Visual perception is strongly determined by accumulated experience with the world, which has been shown for shape, color, and position perception, in the field of visuomotor learning, and in neural computation. In addition, visual perception is tuned to statistics of natural scenes. Such prior experience is modulated by neuronal top-down control the temporal properties of which had been subject to recent studies. Here, we deal with these temporal properties and address the question how early in time accumulated past experience can modulate visual perception