The EC-Earth3 Earth system model for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6

The Earth system model EC-Earth3 for contributions to CMIP6 is documented here, with its flexible coupling framework, major model configurations, a methodology for ensuring the simulations are comparable across different high-performance computing (HPC) systems, and with the physical performance of base configurations over the historical period. The variety of possible configurations and sub-models reflects the broad interests in the EC-Earth community. EC-Earth3 key performance metrics demonstrate physical behavior and biases well within the frame known from recent CMIP models. With improved physical and dynamic features, new Earth system model (ESM) components, community tools, and largely improved physical performance compared to the CMIP5 version, EC-Earth3 represents a clear step forward for the only European community ESM. We demonstrate here that EC-Earth3 is suited for a range of tasks in CMIP6 and beyond

Childhood leukaemia in Europe after Chernobyl: 5 year follow-up.

The European Childhood Leukaemia - Lymphoma Incidence Study (ECLIS) is designed to address concerns about a possible increase in the risk of cancer in Europe following the nuclear accident in Chernobyle in 1986. This paper reports results of surveillance of childhood leukaemia in cancer registry populations from 1980 up to the end of 1991. There was a slight increase in the incidence of childhood leukaemia in Europe during this period, but the overall geographical pattern of change bears no relation to estimated exposure to radiation resulting from the accident. We conclude that at this stage of follow-up any changes in incidence consequent upon the Chernobyl accident remain undetectable against the usual background rates. Our results are consistent with current estimates of the leukaemogenic risk of radiation exposure, which, outside the immediate vicinity of the accident, was small

ESM-SnowMIP: Assessing snow models and quantifying snow-related climate feedbacks

This paper describes ESM-SnowMIP, an international coordinated modelling effort to evaluate current snow schemes, including snow schemes that are included in Earth system models, in a wide variety of settings against local and global observations. The project aims to identify crucial processes and characteristics that need to be improved in snow models in the context of local- and global-scale modelling. A further objective of ESM-SnowMIP is to better quantify snow-related feedbacks in the Earth system. Although it is not part of the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), ESM-SnowMIP is tightly linked to the CMIP6-endorsed Land Surface, Snow and Soil Moisture Model Intercomparison (LS3MIP)

Malignant Tumors of the Central Nervous System

Malignant tumors of the central nervous system in adults comprise a heterogeneous group of malignancies, the largest subgroups comprising astrocytomas, ependymomas, and oligodendrogliomas. Glioblastomas are the most common tumor type, and they have dismal prognosis. Due to differences in cell type of origin, as well as pathogenesis, it is plausible that their etiology also differs between tumor types. The etiology of malignant CNS tumors is largely unknown and no occupational risk factors have been definitively identified. High doses of ionizing radiation increase the risk, but in occupational settings the dose levels appear too small to result in discernible excesses. Several studies have assessed possible effect of extremely low frequency and radiofrequency electromagnetic fields, but the results are inconsistent. Increased brain tumor risk has been reported in agricultural workers, but no specific exposure has been linked to them. Pesticides have been analyzed in several studies without showing a clear increase in risk.acceptedVersionPeer reviewe

Current and emerging developments in subseasonal to decadal prediction

Weather and climate variations of subseasonal to decadal timescales can have enormous social, economic and environmental impacts, making skillful predictions on these timescales a valuable tool for decision makers. As such, there is a growing interest in the scientific, operational and applications communities in developing forecasts to improve our foreknowledge of extreme events. On subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales, these include high-impact meteorological events such as tropical cyclones, extratropical storms, floods, droughts, and heat and cold waves. On seasonal to decadal (S2D) timescales, while the focus remains broadly similar (e.g., on precipitation, surface and upper ocean temperatures and their effects on the probabilities of high-impact meteorological events), understanding the roles of internal and externally-forced variability such as anthropogenic warming in forecasts also becomes important. The S2S and S2D communities share common scientific and technical challenges. These include forecast initialization and ensemble generation; initialization shock and drift; understanding the onset of model systematic errors; bias correct, calibration and forecast quality assessment; model resolution; atmosphere-ocean coupling; sources and expectations for predictability; and linking research, operational forecasting, and end user needs. In September 2018 a coordinated pair of international conferences, framed by the above challenges, was organized jointly by the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) and the World Weather Research Prograame (WWRP). These conferences surveyed the state of S2S and S2D prediction, ongoing research, and future needs, providing an ideal basis for synthesizing current and emerging developments in these areas that promise to enhance future operational services. This article provides such a synthesis

Forecasting the climate response to volcanic eruptions: prediction skill related to stratospheric aerosol forcing

International audienceThe last major volcanic eruptions, the Agung in 1963, El Chichon in 1982 and Pinatubo in 1991, were each associated with a cooling of the troposphere that has been observed over large continental areas and over the Western Pacific, the Indian Ocean and the Southern Atlantic. Simultaneously, Eastern tropical Pacific temperatures increased due to prevailing El Niño conditions. Here we show that the pattern of these near-surface temperature anomalies is partly reproduced with decadal simulations of the EC-Earth model initialised with climate observations and forced with an estimate of the observed volcanic aerosol optical thickness. Sensitivity experiments highlight a cooling induced by the volcanic forcing, whereas El Niño events following the eruptions would have occurred even without volcanic eruptions. Focusing on the period 1961-2001, the main source of skill of this decadal forecast system during the first 2 years is related to the initialisation of the model. The contribution of the initialisation to the skill becomes smaller than the contribution of the volcanic forcing after two years, the latter being substantial in the Western Pacific, the Indian Ocean and the Western Atlantic. Two simple protocols for real time forecasts are investigated: using the forcing of a past volcanic eruption to simulate the forcing of a new one, and applying a two-year exponential decay to the initial stratospheric aerosol load observed at the beginning of the forecast. This second protocol applied in retrospective forecasts allows a partial reproduction of the skill attained with observed forcing

[Incidence and mortality of central nervous system tumors in France: trends over the period 1978-2000 and influence of registration practices on results]

International audienceBACKGROUND: In France, cancer incidence figures are produced by cancer registries covering only 13.5% to 16% of the whole population of the country. Thus, to produce national figures, estimates have to be computed. Registration disparities between registries concerning tumors of the Central Nervous System (CNS) could have biased these estimates. METHODS: National estimates are based on modelling of the incidence/mortality ratio. The most recent estimations for year 2000 were calculated by the French Cancer Registry Network (FRANCIM) and the department of biostatistics of Lyon University Hospital. Since benign tumors are not recorded in some cancer registries, a new estimate of the incidence of CNS tumors was produced by estimating the number of benign tumors in these registries. RESULTS: In 2000 in France, the number of estimated cases of CNS tumors was 2697 in men and 2602 in women, with incidence rates (World standard) of 7.4 and 6.4 per 100,000 respectively. The incidence increased between 1978 and 2000, on an average by 2.25% per year in men and 3.01% per year in women. However, these estimates do not provide a correct picture of CNS incidence. First of all, pathological diagnoses are not performed in 3.5%-27.5% of the patients with CNS tumors registered in French registries. Second, figures for benign tumors (mainly meningiomas) were provided by only two of nine cancer registries. If benign tumors had been registered by all cancer registries, computed incidence would have increased by 12% for men and 26% for women. CONCLUSION: Incidence of CNS tumors is increasing in France, as in many other countries. To improve comparability with other countries, French cancer registries should also collect data on benign tumors. The discrepancies observed between registries in the proportion of patients without information on histology show differences in diagnostic practices and should be the starting point for a survey on this topic