Late Holocene droughts in the Fertile Crescent recorded in a speleothem from northern Iraq

Droughts have had large impacts on past and present societies. High-resolution paleoclimate data are essential to place recent droughts in a meaningful historical context and to predict regional future changes with greater accuracy. Such records, however, are very scarce in the Middle East in general, and the Fertile Crescent in particular. Here we present a 2400 year long speleothem-based multiproxy record from Gejkar Cave in northern Iraq. Oxygen and carbon isotopes and magnesium are faithful recorders of effective moisture. The new Gejkar record not only shows that droughts in 1998–2000 and 2007–2010, which have been argued to be a contributing factor to Syrian civil war, were extreme compared to the current mean climate, but they were also superimposed on a long-term aridification trend that already started around or before 950 C.E. (Common Era). This long-term trend is not captured by tree ring records and climate models, emphasizing the importance of using various paleoclimate proxy data to evaluate and improve climate models and to correctly inform policy makers about future hydroclimatic changes in this drought-prone region

Climate Change Model as a Decision Support Tool for Water Resources Management in Northern Iraq

The northern region of Iraq heavily depends on rivers, such as the Greater Zab, for water supply and irrigation. Thus, river water management in light of future climate change is of paramount importance in the region. In this study, daily rainfall and temperature obtained from the Greater Zab catchment, for 1961–2008, were used in building rainfall and evapotranspiration models using LARS-WG and multiple linear regressions, respectively. A rainfall–runoff model, in the form of autoregressive model with exogenous factors, has been developed using observed flow, rainfall and evapotranspiration data. The calibrated rainfall–runoff model was subsequently used to investigate the impacts of climate change on the Greater Zab flows for the near (2011–2030), medium (2046–2065), and far (2080–2099) futures. Results from the impacts model showed that the catchment is projected to suffer a significant reduction in total annual flow in the far future; with more severe drop during the winter and spring seasons in the range of 25 to 65%. This would have serious ramifications for the current agricultural activities in the catchment. The results could be of significant benefits for water management planners in the catchment as they can be used in allocating water for different users in the catchment

State-Business Relations and Investment in Egypt

This study shows that informal relationships between key policymakers and investors have played an important role in raising levels of investment and fostering economic growth. Comparative observations show that common social roots and common professional background facilitate the emergence of an effective public-private growth alliance but the only necessary conditions are common interest and common understanding of the problems to be solved. The comparative research on two old and two new sectors shows in detail how informal relationships have emerged and how they have made an impact but it warns against overstating their investment-enhancing role. Effective relationships between policymakers and investors – abbreviated to CIPI – are not the direct cause of increases in investment but can play a critical role in unleashing the profit potential of specific sectors. Research on the food industry shows how CIPI helped to overcome supply constraints and political obstacles in decision-making. Research on the communications industry shows how CIPI helped Egypt to overcome initial barriers to entry and establish a new industry virtually from scratch. While the gains were sometimes appropriated by a few actors, the research shows that exclusive relationships can have inclusive effects, depending on how the private sector is organised. Quantitative examination of whether CIPI had an enduring investment-enhancing effect was inconclusive. There is no doubt however that the CIPI was an effective transitional arrangement. It helped investors to overcome barriers to economic growth, it helped policymakers to overcome deficiencies in their own government agencies and it helped both sides to work together in establishing new sectorspecific rules and improving the general regulatory framework. The general lesson from this research is that such transitional arrangements deserve more attention, both to gain a better understanding of the political economy of investment and growth and to make research more relevant for policy

The analytical framework of water and armed conflict: a focus on the 2006 Summer War between Israel and Lebanon

This paper develops an analytical framework to investigate the relationship between water and armed conflict, and applies it to the ‘Summer War’ of 2006 between Israel and Lebanon (Hezbollah). The framework broadens and deepens existing classifications by assessing the impact of acts of war as indiscriminate or targeted, and evaluating them in terms of international norms and law, in particular International Humanitarian Law (IHL). In the case at hand, the relationship is characterised by extensive damage in Lebanon to drinking water infrastructure and resources. This is seen as a clear violation of the letter and the spirit of IHL, while the partial destruction of more than 50 public water towers compromises water rights and national development goals. The absence of pre-war environmental baselines makes it difficult to gauge the impact on water resources, suggesting a role for those with first-hand knowledge of the hostilities to develop a more effective response before, during, and after armed conflict

Factors Underlying Technology Adoption in Academic Libraries in Kuwait

The study analysed factors shaping adoption of technology in academic libraries in Kuwait. The research was based on interviews conducted with library directors, staff and users, combined with observation and document analysis. A major aspect of the Kuwaiti context was a relative lack of financial restraints and an enthusiasm for technology within society as a whole. Other important influences shaping technology adoption specifically within libraries were the top down decision making style and a quest for prestige, in a context of a lack of library culture among users, shortage of professional staff and a strong, perhaps exaggerated, faith in technology as a solution to problems

Livelihoods, conflict and aid programming: Is the evidence base good enough?

In conflict-affected situations, aid-funded livelihood interventions are often tasked with a dual imperative: to generate material welfare benefits and to contribute to peacebuilding outcomes. There may be some logic to such a transformative agenda, but does the reality square with the rhetoric? Through a review of the effectiveness of a range of livelihood promotion interventions—from job creation to microfinance—this paper finds that high quality empirical evidence is hard to come by in conflict-affected situations. Many evaluations appear to conflate outputs with impacts and numerous studies fail to include adequate information on their methodologies and datasets, making it difficult to appraise the reliability of their conclusions. Given the primary purpose of this literature—to provide policy guidance on effective ways to promote livelihoods— this silence is particularly concerning. As such, there is a strong case to be made for a restrained and nuanced handling of such interventions in conflict-affected settings.Department for International Development - PO511

Population aging and long-term care policies in the Gulf region: a case study of Oman

Population aging is a phenomenon occurring across the globe including in countries traditionally exhibiting population dividends and “youth bulges.” The Gulf Corporation Council countries are no exception as they currently experience a process of population aging, albeit at a different stage from many developed countries. However, due to historically high fertility rates and fast-paced epidemiological transition, some of these countries will experience population aging at a higher pace than what has been observed in Europe and the United States. This article reviews recent developments in long-term care policies in the Gulf region with a focus on Oman as an example of a high-income Arab country that is experiencing population aging while still being governed by traditional family aged-care norms. Utilizing existing data and published research complemented by policy analysis and field visits, we analyze the process of population aging in Oman and neighboring countries and its policy implications