Transmission Dynamics Model of Coronavirus COVID-19 for the Outbreak in Most Affected Countries of the World

The wide spread of coronavirus (COVID-19) has threatened millions of lives and damaged the economy worldwide. Due to the severity and damage caused by the disease, it is very important to fore-tell the epidemic lifetime in order to take timely actions. Unfortunately, the lack of accurate information and unavailability of large amount of data at this stage make the task more difficult. In this paper, we used the available data from the mostly affected countries by COVID-19, (China, Iran, South Korea and Italy) and fit this with the SEIR type model in order to estimate the basic reproduction number R_0. We also discussed the development trend of the disease. Our model is quite accurate in predicting the current pattern of the infected population. We also performed sensitivity analysis on all the parameters used that are affecting the value of R0

Modeling Calcium Dynamics and Inhibition Based Synaptic Plasticity in Dendritic Spines

Inhibitory synapses through GABAergic channels not only change spine's calcium dynamics but also modulate postsynaptic current mediated through glutamate receptors. However the mechanism and extent to which these inhibitory synapses can modulate postsynaptic potential is not clearly understood. We propose a mathematical model to explain this phenomenon which encompasses both presynaptic and postsynaptic mechanisms. Further this model also elaborates the effect of these channels in synaptic calcium dynamics and learning mechanism

Analysis of a Mathematical Model of Emerging Infectious Disease Leading to Amphibian Decline

We formulate a three-dimensional deterministic model of amphibian larvae population to investigate the cause of extinction due to the infectious disease. The larvae population of the model is subdivided into two classes, exposed and unexposed, depending on their vulnerability to disease. Reproduction ratio ℛ0 has been calculated and we have shown that if ℛ01, we discussed different scenarios under which an infected population can survive or be eliminated using stability and persistence analysis. Finally, we also used Hopf bifurcation analysis to study the stability of periodic solutions

Mortality and pulmonary complications in patients undergoing surgery with perioperative SARS-CoV-2 infection: an international cohort study

Background: The impact of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) on postoperative recovery needs to be understood to inform clinical decision making during and after the COVID-19 pandemic. This study reports 30-day mortality and pulmonary complication rates in patients with perioperative SARS-CoV-2 infection. Methods: This international, multicentre, cohort study at 235 hospitals in 24 countries included all patients undergoing surgery who had SARS-CoV-2 infection confirmed within 7 days before or 30 days after surgery. The primary outcome measure was 30-day postoperative mortality and was assessed in all enrolled patients. The main secondary outcome measure was pulmonary complications, defined as pneumonia, acute respiratory distress syndrome, or unexpected postoperative ventilation. Findings: This analysis includes 1128 patients who had surgery between Jan 1 and March 31, 2020, of whom 835 (74·0%) had emergency surgery and 280 (24·8%) had elective surgery. SARS-CoV-2 infection was confirmed preoperatively in 294 (26·1%) patients. 30-day mortality was 23·8% (268 of 1128). Pulmonary complications occurred in 577 (51·2%) of 1128 patients; 30-day mortality in these patients was 38·0% (219 of 577), accounting for 81·7% (219 of 268) of all deaths. In adjusted analyses, 30-day mortality was associated with male sex (odds ratio 1·75 [95% CI 1·28–2·40], p\textless0·0001), age 70 years or older versus younger than 70 years (2·30 [1·65–3·22], p\textless0·0001), American Society of Anesthesiologists grades 3–5 versus grades 1–2 (2·35 [1·57–3·53], p\textless0·0001), malignant versus benign or obstetric diagnosis (1·55 [1·01–2·39], p=0·046), emergency versus elective surgery (1·67 [1·06–2·63], p=0·026), and major versus minor surgery (1·52 [1·01–2·31], p=0·047). Interpretation: Postoperative pulmonary complications occur in half of patients with perioperative SARS-CoV-2 infection and are associated with high mortality. Thresholds for surgery during the COVID-19 pandemic should be higher than during normal practice, particularly in men aged 70 years and older. Consideration should be given for postponing non-urgent procedures and promoting non-operative treatment to delay or avoid the need for surgery. Funding: National Institute for Health Research (NIHR), Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland, Bowel and Cancer Research, Bowel Disease Research Foundation, Association of Upper Gastrointestinal Surgeons, British Association of Surgical Oncology, British Gynaecological Cancer Society, European Society of Coloproctology, NIHR Academy, Sarcoma UK, Vascular Society for Great Britain and Ireland, and Yorkshire Cancer Research

Design and baseline characteristics of the finerenone in reducing cardiovascular mortality and morbidity in diabetic kidney disease trial

Background: Among people with diabetes, those with kidney disease have exceptionally high rates of cardiovascular (CV) morbidity and mortality and progression of their underlying kidney disease. Finerenone is a novel, nonsteroidal, selective mineralocorticoid receptor antagonist that has shown to reduce albuminuria in type 2 diabetes (T2D) patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) while revealing only a low risk of hyperkalemia. However, the effect of finerenone on CV and renal outcomes has not yet been investigated in long-term trials. Patients and Methods: The Finerenone in Reducing CV Mortality and Morbidity in Diabetic Kidney Disease (FIGARO-DKD) trial aims to assess the efficacy and safety of finerenone compared to placebo at reducing clinically important CV and renal outcomes in T2D patients with CKD. FIGARO-DKD is a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, parallel-group, event-driven trial running in 47 countries with an expected duration of approximately 6 years. FIGARO-DKD randomized 7,437 patients with an estimated glomerular filtration rate >= 25 mL/min/1.73 m(2) and albuminuria (urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio >= 30 to <= 5,000 mg/g). The study has at least 90% power to detect a 20% reduction in the risk of the primary outcome (overall two-sided significance level alpha = 0.05), the composite of time to first occurrence of CV death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke, or hospitalization for heart failure. Conclusions: FIGARO-DKD will determine whether an optimally treated cohort of T2D patients with CKD at high risk of CV and renal events will experience cardiorenal benefits with the addition of finerenone to their treatment regimen. Trial Registration: EudraCT number: 2015-000950-39; ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT02545049

A comparison of a deterministic and stochastic model for Hepatitis C with an isolation stage

We formulate a deterministic epidemic model for the spread of Hepatitis C containing an acute, chronic and isolation class and analyse the effects of the isolation class on the transmission dynamics of the disease. We calculate the basic reproduction number R0 and show that for R0≤1, the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable. In addition, it is shown that for a special case when R0>1, the endemic equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable. Furthermore, an analogous stochastic epidemic model for Hepatitis C is formulated using a continuous time Markov chain. Numerical simulations are used to estimate the mean, variance and probability distributions of the discrete random variables and these are compared to the steady-state solutions of the deterministic model. Finally, the expected time to disease extinction is estimated for the stochastic model and the impact of isolation on the time to extinction is explored.ISSN:1751-3766ISSN:1751-375

The association of diabetes and obesity with severity of dengue fever: An immunopathology update

The arboviral infection dengue represents a global public health risk as the frequency of cases climbs across period and is anticipated to do so in the future. The fundamental mechanisms behind the concept between obesity and dengue, however, are rarely discussed. A number of variables, including the existence of cytokines that increase inflammatory response and deregulation of endothelium barrier protein production, contribute to plasma permeability, a defining feature of severe dengue. The key diabetes-related variables that impact endothelium functioning include th-1 skewed responses and the production of junctional-related proteins. Additionally, obesity affects lipid metabolism and the immune system, which increases viral multiplication and inflammatory processes. The common factor among individuals with diabetes and obesity is chronic inflammation, which results in endothelial dysfunction. Explored along with the disease's relationships with diabetes and obesity are the potential causes of comorbidities in severe dengue