A propagation-separation approach to estimate the autocorrelation in a time-series

The paper presents an approach to estimate parameters of a local stationary AR(1) time series model by maximization of a local likelihood function. The method is based on a propagation-separation procedure that leads to data dependent weights defining the local model. Using free propagation of weights under homogeneity, the method is capable of separating the time series into intervals of approximate local stationarity. Parameters in different regions will be significantly different. Therefore the method also serves as a test for a stationary AR(1) model. The performance of the method is illustrated by applications to both synthetic data and real time-series of reconstructed NAO and ENSO indices and GRIP stable isotopes

Assessing the performance of the BARCAST climate field reconstruction technique for a climate with long-range memory

The skill of the state-of-the-art climate field reconstruction technique BARCAST (Bayesian Algorithm for Reconstructing Climate Anomalies in Space and Time) to reconstruct temperature with pronounced long-range memory (LRM) characteristics is tested. A novel technique for generating fields of target data has been developed and is used to provide ensembles of LRM stochastic processes with a prescribed spatial covariance structure. Based on different parameter setups, hypothesis testing in the spectral domain is used to investigate if the field and spatial mean reconstructions are consistent with either the fractional Gaussian noise (fGn) process null hypothesis used for generating the target data, or the autoregressive model of order 1 (AR(1)) process null hypothesis which is the assumed temporal evolution model for the reconstruction technique. The study reveals that the resulting field and spatial mean reconstructions are consistent with the fGn process hypothesis for some of the tested parameter configurations, while others are in better agreement with the AR(1) model. There are local differences in reconstruction skill and reconstructed scaling characteristics between individual grid cells, and the agreement with the fGn model is generally better for the spatial mean reconstruction than at individual locations. Our results demonstrate that the use of target data with a different spatiotemporal covariance structure than the BARCAST model assumption can lead to a potentially biased climate field reconstruction (CFR) and associated confidence intervals.</p

Bone Nanomechanical Properties and Relationship to Bone Turnover and Architecture in Patients With Atypical Femur Fractures: A Prospective Nested Case-Control Study

Atypical femur fractures (AFFs) are well-established serious complication of long-term bisphosphonate and denosumab therapy in patients with osteopenia or osteoporosis. To elucidate underlying mechanism(s) for the development of AFF, we performed a nested case-control study to investigate bone tissue nanomechanical properties and prevailing bone microstructure and tissue-level remodeling status as assessed by bone histomorphometry. We hypothesized that there would be differences in nanomechanical properties between patients with and without AFF and that bone microstructure and remodeling would be related to nanomechanical properties. Thirty-two full-thickness transiliac bone biopsies were obtained from age- and sex-matched patients on long-term bisphosphonate therapy with (n = 16) and without an AFF (n = 16). Standard histomorphometric measurements were made in each sample on three different bone envelopes (cancellous, intracortical, and endosteal). Iliac bone wall thickness was significantly lower on all three bone surfaces in patients with AFF than in those without AFF. Surface-based bone formation rate was suppressed similarly in both groups in comparison to healthy premenopausal and postmenopausal women, with no significant difference between the two groups. Nanoindentation was used to assess material properties of cortical and cancellous bone separately. Elastic modulus was higher in cortical than in cancellous bone in patients with AFF as well as compared to the elastic modulus of cortical bone from non-AFF patients. However, the elastic modulus of the cancellous bone was not different between AFF and non-AFF groups or between cortical and cancellous bone of non-AFF patients. Resistance to plastic deformation was decreased in cortical bone in both AFF and non-AFF groups compared to cancellous bone, but to a greater extent in AFF patients. We conclude that long-term bisphosphonate therapy is associated with prolonged suppression of bone turnover resulting in altered cortical remodeling and tissue nanomechanical properties leading to AFF

Arctic hydroclimate variability during the last 2000 years : current understanding and research challenges

Reanalysis data show an increasing trend in Arctic precipitation over the 20th century, but changes are not homogenous across seasons or space. The observed hydro-climate changes are expected to continue and possibly accelerate in the coming century, not only affecting pan-Arctic natural ecosystems and human activities, but also lower latitudes through the atmospheric and ocean circulations. However, a lack of spatiotemporal observational data makes reliable quantification of Arctic hydroclimate change difficult, especially in a long-term context. To understand Arctic hydroclimate and its variability prior to the instrumental record, climate proxy records are needed. The purpose of this review is to summarise the current understanding of Arctic hydroclimate during the past 2000 years. First, the paper reviews the main natural archives and proxies used to infer past hydroclimate variations in this remote region and outlines the difficulty of disentangling the moisture from the temperature signal in these records. Second, a comparison of two sets of hydroclimate records covering the Common Era from two data-rich regions, North America and Fennoscandia, reveals inter- and intra-regional differences. Third, building on earlier work, this paper shows the potential for providing a high-resolution hydroclimate reconstruction for the Arctic and a comparison with last-millennium simulations from fully coupled climate models. In general, hydroclimate proxies and simulations indicate that the Medieval Climate Anomaly tends to have been wetter than the Little Ice Age (LIA), but there are large regional differences. However, the regional coverage of the proxy data is inadequate, with distinct data gaps in most of Eurasia and parts of North America, making robust assessments for the whole Arctic impossible at present. To fully assess pan-Arctic hydroclimate variability for the last 2 millennia, additional proxy records are required.Peer reviewe

Signature of Arctic first-year ice melt pond fraction in X-band SAR imagery

In this paper we investigate the potential of melt pond fraction retrieval from X-band polarimetric synthetic aperture radar (SAR) on drifting first-year sea ice. Melt pond fractions retrieved from a helicopter-borne camera system were compared to polarimetric features extracted from four dual-polarimetric X-band SAR scenes, revealing significant relationships. The correlations were strongly dependent on wind speed and SAR incidence angle. Co-polarisation ratio was found to be the most promising SAR feature for melt pond fraction estimation at intermediate wind speeds (6. 2 m s−1), with a Spearman's correlation coefficient of 0. 46. At low wind speeds (0. 6 m s−1), this relation disappeared due to low backscatter from the melt ponds, and backscatter VV-polarisation intensity had the strongest relationship to melt pond fraction with a correlation coefficient of −0. 53. To further investigate these relations, regression fits were made both for the intermediate (R2fit = 0. 21) and low (R2fit = 0. 26) wind case, and the fits were tested on the satellite scenes in the study. The regression fits gave good estimates of mean melt pond fraction for the full satellite scenes, with less than 4 % from a similar statistics derived from analysis of low-altitude imagery captured during helicopter ice-survey flights in the study area. A smoothing window of 51 × 51 pixels gave the best reproduction of the width of the melt pond fraction distribution. A considerable part of the backscatter signal was below the noise floor at SAR incidence angles above  ∼  40°, restricting the information gain from polarimetric features above this threshold. Compared to previous studies in C-band, limitations concerning wind speed and noise floor set stricter constraints on melt pond fraction retrieval in X-band. Despite this, our findings suggest new possibilities in melt pond fraction estimation from X-band SAR, opening for expanded monitoring of melt ponds during melt season in the future

Implications of surface flooding on airborne estimates of snow depth on sea ice

Snow depth observations from airborne snow radars, such as the NASA's Operation IceBridge (OIB) mission, have recently been used in altimeter-derived sea ice thickness estimates, as well as for model parameterization. A number of validation studies comparing airborne and in situ snow depth measurements have been conducted in the western Arctic Ocean, demonstrating the utility of the airborne data. However, there have been no validation studies in the Atlantic sector of the Arctic. Recent observations in this region suggest a significant and predominant shift towards a snow-ice regime caused by deep snow on thin sea ice. During the Norwegian young sea Ice, Climate and Ecosystems (ICE) expedition (N-ICE2015) in the area north of Svalbard, a validation study was conducted on 19 March 2015. This study collected ground truth data during an OIB overflight. Snow and ice thickness measurements were obtained across a two-dimensional (2-D) 400 m × 60 m grid. Additional snow and ice thickness measurements collected in situ from adjacent ice floes helped to place the measurements obtained at the gridded survey field site into a more regional context. Widespread negative freeboards and flooding of the snowpack were observed during the N-ICE2015 expedition due to the general situation of thick snow on relatively thin sea ice. These conditions caused brine wicking into and saturation of the basal snow layers. This causes the airborne radar signal to undergo more diffuse scattering, resulting in the location of the radar main scattering horizon being detected well above the snow–ice interface. This leads to a subsequent underestimation of snow depth; if only radar-based information is used, the average airborne snow depth was 0.16 m thinner than that measured in situ at the 2-D survey field. Regional data within 10 km of the 2-D survey field suggested however a smaller deviation between average airborne and in situ snow depth, a 0.06 m underestimate in snow depth by the airborne radar, which is close to the resolution limit of the OIB snow radar system. Our results also show a broad snow depth distribution, indicating a large spatial variability in snow across the region. Differences between the airborne snow radar and in situ measurements fell within the standard deviation of the in situ data (0.15–0.18 m). Our results suggest that seawater flooding of the snow–ice interface leads to underestimations of snow depth or overestimations of sea ice freeboard measured from radar altimetry, in turn impacting the accuracy of sea ice thickness estimates.</p

Platelet Ice Under Arctic Pack Ice in Winter

The formation of platelet ice is well known to occur under Antarctic sea ice, where subice platelet layers form from supercooled ice shelf water. In the Arctic, however, platelet ice formation has not been extensively observed, and its formation and morphology currently remain enigmatic. Here, we present the first comprehensive, long‐term in situ observations of a decimeter thick subice platelet layer under free‐drifting pack ice of the Central Arctic in winter. Observations carried out with a remotely operated underwater vehicle (ROV) during the midwinter leg of the MOSAiC drift expedition provide clear evidence of the growth of platelet ice layers from supercooled water present in the ocean mixed layer. This platelet formation takes place under all ice types present during the surveys. Oceanographic data from autonomous observing platforms lead us to the conclusion that platelet ice formation is a widespread but yet overlooked feature of Arctic winter sea ice growth

Antarctic climate variability on regional and continental scales over the last 2000 years

Climate trends in the Antarctic region remain poorly characterized, owing to the brevity and scarcity of direct climate observations and the large magnitude of interannual to decadal-scale climate variability. Here, within the framework of the PAGES Antarctica2k working group, we build an enlarged database of ice core water stable isotope records from Antarctica, consisting of 112 records. We produce both unweighted and weighted isotopic (delta O-18) composites and temperature reconstructions since 0 CE, binned at 5- and 10-year resolution, for seven climatically distinct regions covering the Antarctic continent. Following earlier work of the Antarctica2k working group, we also produce composites and reconstructions for the broader regions of East Antarctica, West Antarctica and the whole continent. We use three methods for our temperature reconstructions: (i) a temperature scaling based on the delta O-18-temperature relationship output from an ECHAM5-wiso model simulation nudged to ERA-Interim atmospheric reanalyses from 1979 to 2013, and adjusted for the West Antarctic Ice Sheet region to borehole temperature data, (ii) a temperature scaling of the isotopic normalized anomalies to the variance of the regional reanalysis temperature and (iii) a composite-plus-scaling approach used in a previous continent-scale reconstruction of Antarctic temperature since 1 CE but applied to the new Antarctic ice core database. Our new reconstructions confirm a significant cooling trend from 0 to 1900 CE across all Antarctic regions where records extend back into the 1st millennium, with the exception of the Wilkes Land coast and Weddell Sea coast regions. Within this long-term cooling trend from 0 to 1900 CE, we find that the warmest period occurs between 300 and 1000 CE, and the coldest interval occurs from 1200 to 1900 CE. Since 1900 CE, significant warming trends are identified for the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, the Dronning Maud Land coast and the Antarctic Peninsula regions, and these trends are robust across the distribution of records that contribute to the unweighted isotopic composites and also significant in the weighted temperature reconstructions. Only for the Antarctic Peninsula is this most recent century-scale trend unusual in the context of natural variability over the last 2000 years. However, projected warming of the Antarctic continent during the 21st century may soon see significant and unusual warming develop across other parts of the Antarctic continent. The extended Antarctica2k ice core isotope database developed by this working group opens up many avenues for developing a deeper understanding of the response of Antarctic climate to natural and anthropogenic climate forcings. The first long-term quantification of regional climate in Antarctica presented herein is a basis for data-model comparison and assessments of past, present and future driving factors of Antarctic climate

Ethnic Speech and Ethnic Action as Ethnic Behavior: Part 1. Construction of the Brunel Ethnic Behavior Inventory

© 2016 Taylor & Francis.This article reports the construction of a new survey—specifically, the Brunel Ethnic Behavior Inventory (BEBI)—designed to measure ethnic speech and ethnic action as separate, yet related, aspects of individuals’ ethnic behavior. Using Tajfel’s social identity theory as a conceptual frame of reference, this study sought an answer to the research question of how many factors actually are measured by the BEBI, and tested the hypothesis that a two-factor model (i.e., Ethnic Speech and Ethnic Action as two correlated factors) would provide significantly better goodness of fit to the correlational data than would a one-factor model (i.e., Ethnic Behavior as one undifferentiated factor). Across one pilot sample (n = 101) and two main samples (n = 120 for Sample 1, n = 148 for Sample 2), the study found that not only did the BEBI measure two factors at most (i.e., Ethnic Speech and Ethnic Action) but, consistent with the hypothesis, the two-factor model yielded better goodness of fit than did the one-factor model. Implications for the conceptualization and measurement of Verkuyten’s “ways of ethnicity” are discussed