An Exploratory Study of COVID-19 Misinformation on Twitter

During the COVID-19 pandemic, social media has become a home ground for misinformation. To tackle this infodemic, scientific oversight, as well as a better understanding by practitioners in crisis management, is needed. We have conducted an exploratory study into the propagation, authors and content of misinformation on Twitter around the topic of COVID-19 in order to gain early insights. We have collected all tweets mentioned in the verdicts of fact-checked claims related to COVID-19 by over 92 professional fact-checking organisations between January and mid-July 2020 and share this corpus with the community. This resulted in 1 500 tweets relating to 1 274 false and 276 partially false claims, respectively. Exploratory analysis of author accounts revealed that the verified twitter handle(including Organisation/celebrity) are also involved in either creating (new tweets) or spreading (retweet) the misinformation. Additionally, we found that false claims propagate faster than partially false claims. Compare to a background corpus of COVID-19 tweets, tweets with misinformation are more often concerned with discrediting other information on social media. Authors use less tentative language and appear to be more driven by concerns of potential harm to others. Our results enable us to suggest gaps in the current scientific coverage of the topic as well as propose actions for authorities and social media users to counter misinformation.Comment: 20 pages, nine figures, four tables. Submitted for peer review, revision

Knowledge Discovery and Hypothesis Generation from Online Patient Forums: A Research Proposal

The unprompted patient experiences shared on patient forums contain a wealth of unexploited knowledge. Mining this knowledge and cross-linking it with biomedical literature, could expose novel insights, which could subsequently provide hypotheses for further clinical research. As of yet, automated methods for open knowledge discovery on patient forum text are lacking. Thus, in this research proposal, we outline future research into methods for mining, aggregating and cross-linking patient knowledge from online forums. Additionally, we aim to address how one could measure the credibility of this extracted knowledge.Algorithms and the Foundations of Software technolog

Patients with rare endocrine conditions have corresponding views on unmet needs in clinical research

Purpose European Reference Network on Rare Endocrine Conditions' (Endo-ERN) mission is to reduce and ultimately abolish inequalities in care for patients with rare endocrine conditions in Europe. This study assesses which themes related to rare endocrine conditions are prioritized by patients for clinical research. Methods A survey was developed, translated into 22 different European languages, and distributed to patients with rare endocrine conditions. Patients were asked to give priority scores to listed prespecified topics: fertility, heritability, tiredness, daily medicine intake, sleep quality, physical discomfort, and ability to work, partake in social life, and sports. They were also asked to suggest further important areas for research in open fields. Results After data cleaning, 1378 survey responses were analyzed. Most responses were received from Northern (47%) and Western Europeans (39%), while Southern (11%) and Eastern Europe (2%) were underrepresented. Respondents were most interested in research concerning ability to participate in social life and work. Patients suggested key areas to work: long-term side effects of medical treatments and quality of life. Some priorities differed between disease groups, both for prespecified and open topics and reflected aspects of patients' individual conditions. Conclusions With this large survey, Endo-ERN gained insight into patients' unmet needs in scientific research. Patients prioritized research on ability to work and participation in social activities, though needs differ between the disease groups. Clinical experts should incorporate the results of this survey into the design of future studies on rare endocrine conditions. We aim to utilize these results in designing patient-reported outcome measures for the disease areas covered by Endo-ERN

How do others cope?: Extracting coping strategies for adverse drug events from social media

Patients advise their peers on how to cope with their illness in daily life on online support groups. To date, no efforts have been made to automatically extract recommended coping strategies from online patient discussion groups. We introduce this new task, which poses a number of challenges including complex, long entities, a large long-tailed label space, and cross-document relations. We present an initial ontology for coping strategies as a starting point for future research on coping strategies, and the first end-to-end pipeline for extracting coping strategies for side effects. We also compared two possible computational solutions for this novel and highly challenging task; multi-label classification and named entity recognition (NER) with entity linking (EL). We evaluated our methods on the discussion forum from the Facebook group of the worldwide patient support organization 'GIST support international' (GSI); GIST support international donated the data to us. We found that coping strategy extraction is difficult and both methods attain limited performance (measured with F1 score) on held out test sets; multi-label classification outperforms NER+EL (F1=0.220 vs F1=0.155). An inspection of the multi-label classification output revealed that for some of the incorrect predictions, the reference label is close to the predicted label in the ontology (e.g. the predicted label 'juice' instead of the more specific reference label 'grapefruit juice'). Performance increased to F1=0.498 when we evaluated at a coarser level of the ontology. We conclude that our pipeline can be used in a semi-automatic setting, in interaction with domain experts to discover coping strategies for side effects from a patient forum. For example, we found that patients recommend ginger tea for nausea and magnesium and potassium supplements for cramps.This information can be used as input for patient surveys or clinical studies.Algorithms and the Foundations of Software technolog

DeepADEMiner: a deep learning pharmacovigilance pipeline for extraction and normalization of adverse drug event mentions on Twitter

Algorithms and the Foundations of Software technolog

Patients with rare endocrine conditions have corresponding views on unmet needs in clinical research

Purpose European Reference Network on Rare Endocrine Conditions' (Endo-ERN) mission is to reduce and ultimately abolish inequalities in care for patients with rare endocrine conditions in Europe. This study assesses which themes related to rare endocrine conditions are prioritized by patients for clinical research. Methods A survey was developed, translated into 22 different European languages, and distributed to patients with rare endocrine conditions. Patients were asked to give priority scores to listed prespecified topics: fertility, heritability, tiredness, daily medicine intake, sleep quality, physical discomfort, and ability to work, partake in social life, and sports. They were also asked to suggest further important areas for research in open fields. Results After data cleaning, 1378 survey responses were analyzed. Most responses were received from Northern (47%) and Western Europeans (39%), while Southern (11%) and Eastern Europe (2%) were underrepresented. Respondents were most interested in research concerning ability to participate in social life and work. Patients suggested key areas to work: long-term side effects of medical treatments and quality of life. Some priorities differed between disease groups, both for prespecified and open topics and reflected aspects of patients' individual conditions. Conclusions With this large survey, Endo-ERN gained insight into patients' unmet needs in scientific research. Patients prioritized research on ability to work and participation in social activities, though needs differ between the disease groups. Clinical experts should incorporate the results of this survey into the design of future studies on rare endocrine conditions. We aim to utilize these results in designing patient-reported outcome measures for the disease areas covered by Endo-ERN.Diabetes mellitus: pathophysiological changes and therap

Sample bias in web-based patient-generated health data of Dutch patients with gastrointestinal stromal tumor: survey study

BACKGROUND\nOBJECTIVE\nMETHODS\nRESULTS\nCONCLUSIONS\nIncreasingly, social media is being recognized as a potential resource for patient-generated health data, for example, for pharmacovigilance. Although the representativeness of the web-based patient population is often noted as a concern, studies in this field are limited.\nThis study aimed to investigate the sample bias of patient-centered social media in Dutch patients with gastrointestinal stromal tumor (GIST).\nA population-based survey was conducted in the Netherlands among 328 patients with GIST diagnosed 2-13 years ago to investigate their digital communication use with fellow patients. A logistic regression analysis was used to analyze clinical and demographic differences between forum users and nonusers.\nOverall, 17.9% (59/328) of survey respondents reported having contact with fellow patients via social media. Moreover, 78% (46/59) of forum users made use of GIST patient forums. We found no statistically significant differences for age, sex, socioeconomic status, and time since diagnosis between forum users (n=46) and nonusers (n=273). Patient forum users did differ significantly in (self-reported) treatment phase from nonusers (P=.001). Of the 46 forum users, only 2 (4%) were cured and not being monitored; 3 (7%) were on adjuvant, curative treatment; 19 (41%) were being monitored after adjuvant treatment; and 22 (48%) were on palliative treatment. In contrast, of the 273 patients who did not use disease-specific forums to communicate with fellow patients, 56 (20.5%) were cured and not being monitored, 31 (11.3%) were on curative treatment, 139 (50.9%) were being monitored after treatment, and 42 (15.3%) were on palliative treatment. The odds of being on a patient forum were 2.8 times as high for a patient who is being monitored compared with a patient that is considered cured. The odds of being on a patient forum were 1.9 times as high for patients who were on curative (adjuvant) treatment and 10 times as high for patients who were in the palliative phase compared with patients who were considered cured. Forum users also reported a lower level of social functioning (84.8 out of 100) than nonusers (93.8 out of 100; P=.008).\nForum users showed no particular bias on the most important demographic variables of age, sex, socioeconomic status, and time since diagnosis. This may reflect the narrowing digital divide. Overrepresentation and underrepresentation of patients with GIST in different treatment phases on social media should be taken into account when sourcing patient forums for patient-generated health data. A further investigation of the sample bias in other web-based patient populations is warranted.Algorithms and the Foundations of Software technolog

Symptoms reported by gastrointestinal stromal tumour (GIST) patients on imatinib treatment: combining questionnaire and forum data

Algorithms and the Foundations of Software technolog

Predicting September Arctic Sea Ice: A Multi-Model Seasonal Skill Comparison

Abstract This study quantifies the state-of-the-art in the rapidly growing field of seasonal Arctic sea ice prediction. A novel multi-model dataset of retrospective seasonal predictions of September Arctic sea ice is created and analyzed, consisting of community contributions from 17 statistical models and 17 dynamical models. Prediction skill is compared over the period 2001–2020 for predictions of Pan-Arctic sea ice extent (SIE), regional SIE, and local sea ice concentration (SIC) initialized on June 1, July 1, August 1, and September 1. This diverse set of statistical and dynamical models can individually predict linearly detrended Pan-Arctic SIE anomalies with skill, and a multi-model median prediction has correlation coefficients of 0.79, 0.86, 0.92, and 0.99 at these respective initialization times. Regional SIE predictions have similar skill to Pan-Arctic predictions in the Alaskan and Siberian regions, whereas regional skill is lower in the Canadian, Atlantic, and Central Arctic sectors. The skill of dynamical and statistical models is generally comparable for Pan-Arctic SIE, whereas dynamical models outperform their statistical counterparts for regional and local predictions. The prediction systems are found to provide the most value added relative to basic reference forecasts in the extreme SIE years of 1996, 2007, and 2012. SIE prediction errors do not show clear trends over time, suggesting that there has been minimal change in inherent sea ice predictability over the satellite era. Overall, this study demonstrates that there are bright prospects for skillful operational predictions of September sea ice at least three months in advance.</jats:p

Current and emerging developments in subseasonal to decadal prediction

Weather and climate variations of subseasonal to decadal timescales can have enormous social, economic and environmental impacts, making skillful predictions on these timescales a valuable tool for decision makers. As such, there is a growing interest in the scientific, operational and applications communities in developing forecasts to improve our foreknowledge of extreme events. On subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales, these include high-impact meteorological events such as tropical cyclones, extratropical storms, floods, droughts, and heat and cold waves. On seasonal to decadal (S2D) timescales, while the focus remains broadly similar (e.g., on precipitation, surface and upper ocean temperatures and their effects on the probabilities of high-impact meteorological events), understanding the roles of internal and externally-forced variability such as anthropogenic warming in forecasts also becomes important. The S2S and S2D communities share common scientific and technical challenges. These include forecast initialization and ensemble generation; initialization shock and drift; understanding the onset of model systematic errors; bias correct, calibration and forecast quality assessment; model resolution; atmosphere-ocean coupling; sources and expectations for predictability; and linking research, operational forecasting, and end user needs. In September 2018 a coordinated pair of international conferences, framed by the above challenges, was organized jointly by the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) and the World Weather Research Prograame (WWRP). These conferences surveyed the state of S2S and S2D prediction, ongoing research, and future needs, providing an ideal basis for synthesizing current and emerging developments in these areas that promise to enhance future operational services. This article provides such a synthesis