Export barriers to internationalization. An investigation on Nepalese handmade paper industries

Masteroppgave i bedriftsøkonomi – Universitetet i Nordland, 201

HIV trends, risk behaviours, social structural barriers and retention in HIV care among key populations in Nepal and the Asia-Pacific region

Background: The HIV epidemic in the Asia-Pacific region is characterised by a number of concentrated, and in some geographical areas, growing epidemics, particularly among key populations [men who have sex with men (MSM), transgender (TG), female sex workers (FSW), and people who inject drugs (PWID)]. Some countries in the region have been particularly successful in reducing the incidence rate, but other countries in the region have experienced opposite scenarios. The coverage of antiretroviral treatment (ART) is still low in the region, ranging between 6-42%. Key populations in many Asia-Pacific countries also frequently suffer from discrimination and marginalisation, and their behaviours, often classified as illegal, further increase their already high vulnerability to HIV infection. HIV continues to spread predominantly through sexual transmission and can be linked to sexual risk behaviours, such as inconsistent condom use. More than 90% of all new HIV infections among young people in the Asia-Pacific region occur among young key populations belonging to either the MSM, TG, FSW or PWID group. The aim of this study was to understand HIV trends, social structural barriers, risk behaviours and retention in HIV care among key populations in 7 countries of the Asia-Pacific region, with a special focus on Nepal. Methods: This project utilised two main data sources: (a) baseline data from a prospective longitudinal study of community access to HIV treatment, care and support services (CAT-S) that involved 59 sites in 7 countries (Bangladesh, Indonesia, Lao People’s Democratic Republic, Nepal, Pakistan, Philippines, Vietnam). Between 1 October 2012 and 31 May 2013, a total of 7 843 people living with HIV (PLHIV) aged 18-50 years were recruited in CAT-S. (b) Nationwide surveillance survey data collected from key populations (PWID, MSM, TG, FSW, male labour migrants) across Nepal for over a decade. A total of 7 505 young (aged 16-24 years) key populations were recruited using two-stage cluster and respondent driven sampling from four epidemic zones over a 12-year period, 2001–2012. Results: We found a high prevalence of inconsistent condom use among PLHIV in the seven study countries: overall 40%, but varying from 17% in Lao People’s Democratic Republic to 60% in the Philippines, did not practice safe sex., This was associated with belonging to a key population (drug users, FSW or a refugee sub-population), poor HIV-treatment literacy and not receiving ART (Paper I). A high proportion of PLHIV (40-51%) presented late for HIV care, which delayed linkage to care. However, once PLHIV enrolled in care, retention in the various steps of the HIV care cascade including adherence to ART was satisfactory (Paper II). Findings based on surveillance survey data suggest that adverse micro-level social structural factors such as reduced condom-negotiation skills, economic vulnerability, inadequate social support, and experience of abuse, contribute to enhance the risk environment associated with unprotected sex among FSW in Nepal (Paper III). Our analyses also indicate that the presence of two or more adverse conditions in the physical, social, or economic environment of FSW, interacted to increase the risk of unprotected sex among Nepalese FSW (Paper III). However, the trend analysis suggests a sharp and consistent decline in HIV prevalence over the past decade in different epidemic zones among young key populations in Nepal, most likely due to a parallel increase in safe needle and syringe use and increased condom use (Paper IV). Conclusions: Non-use of condoms and late presentation for HIV care is still highly prevalent among PLHIV in the seven study countries. Different adverse conditions, so-called micro-level social structural factors such as physical factors (client refusal to pay after having sex), social factors (poor social support and poor condom negotiation skills) and economic level factors (unprotected sex to make more money) levels are associated with increased odds of HIV-related risk behaviours among Nepalese FSW. HIV prevalence and risk behaviours have declined among young key populations in Nepal, but to maintain this downward trend, the focus should be on addressing the burden of negative social structural factors (unprotected sex to boost income and poor social support)

Stigma reduction interventions in people living with HIV to improve health-related quality of life

As the UNAIDS 90-90-90 targets for people living with HIV are increasingly being reached in many contexts, health-related quality of life, the so-called fourth 90, warrants special attention. HIV-related stigma and discrimination are major barriers for overall health-related quality of life despite impressive clinical and virological improvements in HIV care. There is a scarcity of well designed intervention studies that document stigma reduction in people living with HIV and few studies that specifically assess the effect of stigma on health-related quality of life. Further, few interventions target discrimination from providers outside of HIV-specific care or involve people living with HIV in both the design and implementation. Lastly, evidence on methods to reduce stigma in several underepresented key populations and geographical regions is insufficient and research on intersectional stigma (ie, the convergence of multiple stigmatised identities) needs further attention

Prevalence of HIV, Syphilis, Hepatitis-B, and Hepatitis-C among People with Injecting Drugs in Western Terai Highway districts, Nepal

Introduction: HIV epidemic has become the major problems among people with injecting drugs (PWIDs) in Nepal. The study was carried out to assess the prevalence of sexually transmitted diseases including HIV/AIDS among PWIDs. Methods: This descriptive cross-sectional survey was conducted in male PWIDs of age more than 16 years residing in Western to Far West Terai Districts of Nepal who had been injecting drugs for three months prior to the date of the survey" March-April 2017. A two-stage cluster sampling was used to recruit 300 PWIDs from seven Districts. HIV was diagnosed by using standard techniques approved by WHO.  Similarly, Syphilis was tested using the "Rapid Plasma Reagin" and Hepatitis C, as well as Hepatitis B, was tested by using rapid test kits. Demographic data were collected by using a structured questionnaire and the data obtained were entered in MS excel was transformed into the SPSS version 21 for the descriptive as well as inferential analysis. Results: Prevalence of HIV, HBV, HCV, and STI among PWIDs were 5.3%,   2.7%,  23.7%,  and 2.0% respectively. Majority of the PWIDs were literate (93.7%) and their age was below 35 years. Among the married PWIDs, 32.4% had got married before the age of 19. Similarly, 53.7% of them were living with their female sexual partner, and 95.0% were living with their wife. Ninety-six per cent of the respondents reported to be ever involved in sexual activity, 77.1% of them initiated the sexual intercourse before the age of 20 years and 41.9% of them had more than one female sexual partner. The survey indicated that 36.3% had been injecting drugs for more than 5 years while 27.7% had been injecting for last 2-5 years and 55.0% of the respondents had injected for the first time at the age of 16-24 years. About one in 10 respondents had started injecting drugs recently. Conclusion: There is a high prevalence of HIV, HCV, HBV and active syphilis among the PWIDs. Co-infection of HIV and HCV, as well as Hepatitis B and C, were also prevalent among PWIDs. Comprehensive education and awareness program is required to reduce the prevalence. Keywords: Prevalence, people with injecting drugs, HIV/AIDS, Nepal DOI: http://doi.org/10.3126/jkahs.v2i2.2516

Disease Burden Attributed to Drug use in the Nordic Countries: a Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019

The Nordic countries share similarities in many social and welfare domains, but drug policies have varied over time and between countries. We wanted to compare differences in mortality and disease burden attributed to drug use over time. Using results from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study, we extracted age-standardized estimates of deaths, DALYs, YLLs and YLDs per 100 000 population for Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, and Sweden during the years 1990 to 2019. Among males, DALY rates in 2019 were highest in Finland and lowest in Iceland. Among females, DALY rates in 2019 were highest in Iceland and lowest in Sweden. Sweden have had the highest increase in burden since 1990, from 252 DALYs to 694 among males, and from 111 to 193 among females. Norway had a peak with highest level of all countries in 2001–2004 and thereafter a strong decline. Denmark have had the most constant burden over time, 566–600 DALYs among males from 1990 to 2010 and 210–240 DALYs among females. Strict drug policies in Nordic countries have not prevented an increase in some countries, so policies need to be reviewed.publishedVersio

The burden of mental disorders, substance use disorders and self-harm among young people in Europe, 1990–2019: Findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND: Mental health is a public health issue for European young people, with great heterogeneity in resource allocation. Representative population-based studies are needed. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019 provides internationally comparable information on trends in the health status of populations and changes in the leading causes of disease burden over time. METHODS: Prevalence, incidence, Years Lived with Disability (YLDs) and Years of Life Lost (YLLs) from mental disorders (MDs), substance use disorders (SUDs) and self-harm were estimated for young people aged 10-24 years in 31 European countries. Rates per 100,000 population, percentage changes in 1990-2019, 95% Uncertainty Intervals (UIs), and correlations with Sociodemographic Index (SDI), were estimated. FINDINGS: In 2019, rates per 100,000 population were 16,983 (95% UI 12,823 – 21,630) for MDs, 3,891 (3,020 - 4,905) for SUDs, and 89·1 (63·8 - 123·1) for self-harm. In terms of disability, anxiety contributed to 647·3 (432–912·3) YLDs, while in terms of premature death, self-harm contributed to 319·6 (248·9–412·8) YLLs, per 100,000 population. Over the 30 years studied, YLDs increased in eating disorders (14·9%;9·4-20·1) and drug use disorders (16·9%;8·9-26·3), and decreased in idiopathic developmental intellectual disability (–29·1%;23·8-38·5). YLLs decreased in self-harm (–27·9%;38·3-18·7). Variations were found by sex, age-group and country. The burden of SUDs and self-harm was higher in countries with lower SDI, MDs were associated with SUDs. INTERPRETATION: Mental health conditions represent an important burden among young people living in Europe. National policies should strengthen mental health, with a specific focus on young people. FUNDING: The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundatio

The burden of mental disorders, substance use disorders and self-harm among young people in Europe, 1990-2019 : Findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background Mental health is a public health issue for European young people, with great heterogeneity in resource allocation. Representative population-based studies are needed. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019 provides internationally comparable information on trends in the health status of populations and changes in the leading causes of disease burden over time. Methods Prevalence, incidence, Years Lived with Disability (YLDs) and Years of Life Lost (YLLs) from mental disorders (MDs), substance use disorders (SUDs) and self-harm were estimated for young people aged 10-24 years in 31 European countries. Rates per 100,000 population, percentage changes in 1990-2019, 95% Uncertainty Intervals (UIs), and correlations with Sociodemographic Index (SDI), were estimated. Findings In 2019, rates per 100,000 population were 16,983 (95% UI 12,823 - 21,630) for MDs, 3,891 (3,020 4,905) for SUDs, and 89.1 (63.8 - 123.1) for self-harm. In terms of disability, anxiety contributed to 647.3 (432 -912.3) YLDs, while in terms of premature death, self-harm contributed to 319.6 (248.9-412.8) YLLs, per 100,000 population. Over the 30 years studied, YLDs increased in eating disorders (14.9%;9.4-20.1) and drug use disorders (16.9%;8.9-26.3), and decreased in idiopathic developmental intellectual disability (-29.1%;23.8-38.5). YLLs decreased in self-harm (-27.9%;38.3-18.7). Variations were found by sex, age-group and country. The burden of SUDs and self-harm was higher in countries with lower SDI, MDs were associated with SUDs. Interpretation Mental health conditions represent an important burden among young people living in Europe. National policies should strengthen mental health, with a specific focus on young people. Funding The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation Copyright (C) 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)Peer reviewe

Mapping age- and sex-specific HIV prevalence in adults in sub-Saharan Africa, 2000–2018

Background: Human immunodeficiency virus and acquired immune deficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) is still among the leading causes of disease burden and mortality in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), and the world is not on track to meet targets set for ending the epidemic by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) and the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Precise HIV burden information is critical for effective geographic and epidemiological targeting of prevention and treatment interventions. Age- and sex-specific HIV prevalence estimates are widely available at the national level, and region-wide local estimates were recently published for adults overall. We add further dimensionality to previous analyses by estimating HIV prevalence at local scales, stratified into sex-specific 5-year age groups for adults ages 15–59 years across SSA. Methods: We analyzed data from 91 seroprevalence surveys and sentinel surveillance among antenatal care clinic (ANC) attendees using model-based geostatistical methods to produce estimates of HIV prevalence across 43 countries in SSA, from years 2000 to 2018, at a 5 × 5-km resolution and presented among second administrative level (typically districts or counties) units. Results: We found substantial variation in HIV prevalence across localities, ages, and sexes that have been masked in earlier analyses. Within-country variation in prevalence in 2018 was a median 3.5 times greater across ages and sexes, compared to for all adults combined. We note large within-district prevalence differences between age groups: for men, 50% of districts displayed at least a 14-fold difference between age groups with the highest and lowest prevalence, and at least a 9-fold difference for women. Prevalence trends also varied over time; between 2000 and 2018, 70% of all districts saw a reduction in prevalence greater than five percentage points in at least one sex and age group. Meanwhile, over 30% of all districts saw at least a five percentage point prevalence increase in one or more sex and age group. Conclusions: As the HIV epidemic persists and evolves in SSA, geographic and demographic shifts in prevention and treatment efforts are necessary. These estimates offer epidemiologically informative detail to better guide more targeted interventions, vital for combating HIV in SSA. © 2022, The Author(s).Funding text 1: S Afzal acknowledges support of the Pakistan Society of Medical Infectious Diseases and King Edward Medical University to access the relevant data of HIV from various sources. T W Bärnighausen was supported by the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation through the Alexander von Humboldt Professor award, funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research. F Carvalho and E Fernandes acknowledge support from Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT), I.P., in the scope of the project UIDP/04378/2020 and UIDB/04378/2020 of the Research Unit on Applied Molecular Biosciences - UCIBIO and the project LA/P/0140/2020 of the Associate Laboratory Institute for Health and Bioeconomy - i4HB; FCT/MCTES (Ministério da Ciência, Tecnologia e Ensino Superior) through the project UIDB/50006/2020. K Deribe acknowledges support by the Wellcome Trust [grant number 201900/Z/16/Z] as part of his International Intermediate Fellowship. C Herteliu and A Pana are partially supported by a grant of the Romanian National Authority for Scientific Research and Innovation, CNDS-UEFISCDI, project number PN-III-P4-ID-PCCF-2016-0084. Claudiu Herteliu is partially supported by a grant of the Romanian Ministry of Research Innovation and Digitalization, MCID, project number ID-585-CTR-42-PFE-2021. Y J Kim acknowledges support by the Research Management Centre, Xiamen University Malaysia [No. XMUMRF/2020-C6/ITCM/0004]. S L Koulmane Laxminarayana acknowledges institutional support by the Manipal Academy of Higher Education. K Krishan acknowledges non-financial support from UGC Centre of Advanced Study, CAS II, Department of Anthropology, Panjab University, Chandigarh, India. M Kumar would like to acknowledge NIH/FIC K43 TW010716-04. I Landires is a member of the Sistema Nacional de Investigación (SNI), supported by the Secretaría Nacional de Ciencia, Tecnología e Innovación (SENACYT), Panama. V Nuñez-Samudio is a member of the Sistema Nacional de Investigación (SNI), which is supported by Panama’s Secretaría Nacional de Ciencia, Tecnología e Innovación (SENACYT). O O Odukoya was supported by the Fogarty International Center of the National Institutes of Health under the Award Number K43TW010704. The content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of the National Institutes of Health. Z Quazi Syed acknowledges support from JNMC, Datta Meghe Institute of Medical Sciences. A I Ribeiro was supported by National Funds through FCT, under the ‘Stimulus of Scientific Employment – Individual Support’ program within the contract CEECIND/02386/2018. A M Samy acknowledges the support from a fellowship of the Egyptian Fulbright Mission program and Ain Shams University. R Shrestha acknowledges support from NIDA K01 Award: K01DA051346. N Taveira acknowledges support from FCT and Aga Khan Development Network (AKDN) - Portugal Collaborative Research Network in Portuguese speaking countries in Africa (project reference: 332821690), and by the European & Developing Countries Clinical Trials Partnership (EDCTP), UE (project reference: RIA2016MC-1615). B Unnikrishnan acknowledges support from Kasturba Medical College, Mangalore, Manipal Academy of Higher Education, Manipal. ; Funding text 2: LBD sub-Saharan Africa HIV Prevalence Collaborators S Afzal acknowledges support of the Pakistan Society of Medical Infectious Diseases and King Edward Medical University to access the relevant data of HIV from various sources. T W Bärnighausen was supported by the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation through the Alexander von Humboldt Professor award, funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research. F Carvalho and E Fernandes acknowledge support from Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT), I.P., in the scope of the project UIDP/04378/2020 and UIDB/04378/2020 of the Research Unit on Applied Molecular Biosciences - UCIBIO and the project LA/P/0140/2020 of the Associate Laboratory Institute for Health and Bioeconomy - i4HB; FCT/MCTES (Ministério da Ciência, Tecnologia e Ensino Superior) through the project UIDB/50006/2020. K Deribe acknowledges support by the Wellcome Trust [grant number 201900/Z/16/Z] as part of his International Intermediate Fellowship. C Herteliu and A Pana are partially supported by a grant of the Romanian National Authority for Scientific Research and Innovation, CNDS-UEFISCDI, project number PN-III-P4-ID-PCCF-2016-0084. Claudiu Herteliu is partially supported by a grant of the Romanian Ministry of Research Innovation and Digitalization, MCID, project number ID-585-CTR-42-PFE-2021. Y J Kim acknowledges support by the Research Management Centre, Xiamen University Malaysia [No. XMUMRF/2020-C6/ITCM/0004]. S L Koulmane Laxminarayana acknowledges institutional support by the Manipal Academy of Higher Education. K Krishan acknowledges non-financial support from UGC Centre of Advanced Study, CAS II, Department of Anthropology, Panjab University, Chandigarh, India. M Kumar would like to acknowledge NIH/FIC K43 TW010716-04. I Landires is a member of the Sistema Nacional de Investigación (SNI), supported by the Secretaría Nacional de Ciencia, Tecnología e Innovación (SENACYT), Panama. V Nuñez-Samudio is a member of the Sistema Nacional de Investigación (SNI), which is supported by Panama’s Secretaría Nacional de Ciencia, Tecnología e Innovación (SENACYT). O O Odukoya was supported by the Fogarty International Center of the National Institutes of Health under the Award Number K43TW010704. The content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of the National Institutes of Health. Z Quazi Syed acknowledges support from JNMC, Datta Meghe Institute of Medical Sciences. A I Ribeiro was supported by National Funds through FCT, under the ‘Stimulus of Scientific Employment – Individual Support’ program within the contract CEECIND/02386/2018. A M Samy acknowledges the support from a fellowship of the Egyptian Fulbright Mission program and Ain Shams University. R Shrestha acknowledges support from NIDA K01 Award: K01DA051346. N Taveira acknowledges support from FCT and Aga Khan Development Network (AKDN) - Portugal Collaborative Research Network in Portuguese speaking countries in Africa (project reference: 332821690), and by the European & Developing Countries Clinical Trials Partnership (EDCTP), UE (project reference: RIA2016MC-1615). B Unnikrishnan acknowledges support from Kasturba Medical College, Mangalore, Manipal Academy of Higher Education, Manipal.; Funding text 3: This work was primarily supported by grant OPP1132415 from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. The funder of the study had no role in study design, data collection, data analysis, data interpretation, writing of the report, or decision to publish. The corresponding authors had full access to all the data in the study and had final responsibility for the decision to submit for publication. ; Funding text 4: S Afzal reports leadership or fiduciary role in other board, society, committee or advocacy group, unpaid, with the Pakistan society of Community Medicine & Public Health, the Pakistan Association of Medical Editors, and the Pakistan Society of Medical Infectious Diseases, all outside the submitted work. R Ancuceanu reports 5 payment or honoraria for lectures, presentations, speakers bureaus, manuscript writing, or educational events from Avvie, Sandoz, and B Braun, all outside the submitted work. T W Bärnighausen reports research grants from the European Union (Horizon 2020 and EIT Health), German Research Foundation (DFG), US National Institutes of Health, German Ministry of Education and Research, Alexander von Humboldt Foundation, Else-Kröner-Fresenius-Foundation, Wellcome Trust, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, KfW, UNAIDS, and WHO; consulting fees from KfW on the OSCAR initiative in Vietnam; participation on a Data Safety Monitoring Board or Advisory Board with the NIH-funded study “Healthy Options” (PIs: Smith Fawzi, Kaaya), Chair, Data Safety and Monitoring Board (DSMB), German National Committee on the “Future of Public Health Research and Education,” Chair of the scientific advisory board to the EDCTP Evaluation, Member of the UNAIDS Evaluation Expert Advisory Committee, National Institutes of Health Study Section Member on Population and Public Health Approaches to HIV/AIDS (PPAH), US National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine’s Committee for the “Evaluation of Human Resources for Health in the Republic of Rwanda under the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR),” University of Pennsylvania (UPenn) Population Aging Research Center (PARC) External Advisory Board Member; leadership or fiduciary role in other board, society, committee or advocacy group, paid or unpaid, as co-chair of the Global Health Hub Germany (which was initiated by the German Ministry of Health); all outside the submitted work. J das Neves reports grants or contracts from Ref. 13605 – Programa GÉNESE, Gilead Portugal (PGG/002/2016 – Programa GÉNESE, Gilead Portugal) outside the submitted work. L Dwyer-Lindgren reports support for the present manuscript from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation through grant OPP1132415. I Filip reports other financial or non-financial interests from Avicenna Medical and Clinical Research Institute, outside the submitted work. E Haeuser reports support for the present manuscript from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation through grant OPP1132415. C Herteliu reports grants from Romanian Ministry of Research Innovation and Digitalization, MCID, for project number ID-585-CTR-42-PFE-2021 (Jan 2022-Jun 2023) “Enhancing institutional performance through development of infrastructure and transdisciplinary research ecosystem within socio-economic domain – PERFECTIS,” from Romanian National Authority for Scientific Research and Innovation, CNDS-UEFISCDI, for project number PN-III-P4-ID-PCCF-2016-0084 (Oct 2018-Sep 2022) “Understanding and modelling time-space patterns of psychology-related inequalities and polarization,” and project number PN-III-P2-2.1-SOL-2020-2-0351 (Jun 2020-Oct 2020) “Approaches within public health management in the context of COVID-19 pandemic,” and from the Ministry of Labour and Social Justice, Romania for project number “Agenda for skills Romania 2020-2025”; all outside the submitted work. J J Jozwiak reports payment or honoraria for lectures, presentations, speakers bureaus, manuscript writing, or educational events from Teva, Amgen, Synexus, Boehringer Ingelheim, Zentiva, and Sanofi as personal fees, all outside the submitted work. J Khubchandani reports other financial interests from Teva Pharmaceuticals, all outside the submitted work. K Krishnan reports other non-financial support from UGC Centre of Advanced Study, CAS II, Department of Anthropology, Panjab University, Chandigarh, India, outside the submitted work. H J Larson reports grants or contracts from the MacArthur Foundation and Merck to London School of Hygeine and Tropical Medicine, and from the Vaccine Confidence Fund to the University of Washington; payment or honoraria for lectures, presentations, speakers bureaus, manuscript writing, or educational events from Center for Strategic and International Studies as payment to LSHTM for co-chairing HighLevel Panel and from GSK as personal payment for developing training sessions and lectures; leadership or fiduciary role in other board, society, committee or advocacy group, pair, with the ApiJect Advisory Board; all outside the submitted work. O O Odukoya reports support for the present manuscript from the Fogarty International Center of the National Institutes of Health under the Award Number K43TW010704. The content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of the National Institutes of Health. A Pans reports grants from Romanian National Authority for Scientific Research and Innovation, CNDS-UEFISCDI, for project number PN-III-P4-ID-PCCF-2016-0084 (Oct 2018-Sep 2022) “Understanding and modelling time-space patterns of psychology-related inequalities and polarization,” and project number PN-III-P2-2.1-SOL-2020-2-0351 (Jun 2020-Oct 2020) “Approaches within public health management in the context of COVID-19 pandemic,” outside the submitted work. S R Pandi-Perumal reports royalties from Springer for editing services; stock or stock options in Somnogen Canada Inc as the President and Chief Executive Officer; all outside the submitted work. A Radfar reports other financial or non-financial interests from Avicenna Medical and Clinical Research Institute, outside the submitted work. A I Ribeiro reports grants or contracts from National Funds through FCT, under the ‘Stimulus of Scientific Employment – Individual Support’ program within the contract CEECIND/02386/2018, outside the submitted work. J M Ross reports support for the present manuscript from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation through grant OPP1132415; grants or contracts from National Institutes of Health and Firland Foundation as payments to their institution; consulting fees from United States Agency for International Development as personal payments, and from KNCV Tuberculosis Foundation as payments to their institution; all outside the submitted work. E Rubagotti reports payment or honoraria for lectures, presentations, speakers bureaus, manuscript writing, or educational events from the Greenwich China Office and Unviersity Prince Mohammad VI, Morocco, all outside the submitted work. B Sartorius reports grants or contracts from DHSC – GRAM Project; Leadership or fiduciary role in other board, society, committee or advocacy group, paid or unpaid, as a member of the GBD Scientific Council and a Member of WHO RGHS; all outside the submitted work. J A Singh reports consulting fees from Crealta/Horizon, Medisys, Fidia, PK Med, Two labs Inc, Adept Field Solutions, Clinical Care options, Clearview healthcare partners, Putnam associates, Focus forward, Navigant consulting, Spherix, MedIQ, Jupiter Life Science LLC, UBM LLC, Trio Health, Medscape, WebMD, and Practice Point communications, and the National Institutes of Health and the American College of Rheumatology; payment or honoraria for participating in the speakers bureau for Simply Speaking; support for attending meetings and/or travel from the steering committee of OMERACT, to attend their meeting every 2 years; participation on a Data Safety Monitoring Board or Advisory Board as an unpaid member of the FDA Arthritis Advisory Committee; leadership or fiduciary role in other board, society, committee or advocacy group, paid or unpaid, as a member of the steering committee of OMERACT, an international organization that develops measures for clinical trials and receives arm’s length funding from 12 pharmaceutical companies, with the Veterans Affairs Rheumatology Field Advisory Committee as Chair, and with the UAB Cochrane Musculoskeletal Group Satellite Center on Network Meta-analysis as a director and editor; stock or stock options in TPT Global Tech, Vaxart pharmaceuticals, Atyu Biopharma, Adaptimmune Therapeutics, GeoVax Labs, Pieris Pharmaceuticals, Enzolytics Inc, Series Therapeutics, Tonix Pharmaceuticals, and Charlotte’s Web Holdings Inc. and previously owned stock options in Amarin, Viking, and Moderna pharmaceuticals; all outside the submitted work. N Taveira reports grants or contracts from FCT and Aga Khan Development Network (AKDN) – Portugal Collaborative Research Network in Portuguese speaking countries in Africa (Project reference: 332821690) and from European & Developing Countries Clinical Trials Partnership (EDCTP), UE (Project reference: RIA2016MC-1615), as payments made to their institution, all outside the submitted work

Mapping subnational HIV mortality in six Latin American countries with incomplete vital registration systems

BackgroundHuman immunodeficiency virus (HIV) remains a public health priority in Latin America. While the burden of HIV is historically concentrated in urban areas and high-risk groups, subnational estimates that cover multiple countries and years are missing. This paucity is partially due to incomplete vital registration (VR) systems and statistical challenges related to estimating mortality rates in areas with low numbers of HIV deaths. In this analysis, we address this gap and provide novel estimates of the HIV mortality rate and the number of HIV deaths by age group, sex, and municipality in Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Guatemala, and Mexico.MethodsWe performed an ecological study using VR data ranging from 2000 to 2017, dependent on individual country data availability. We modeled HIV mortality using a Bayesian spatially explicit mixed-effects regression model that incorporates prior information on VR completeness. We calibrated our results to the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.ResultsAll countries displayed over a 40-fold difference in HIV mortality between municipalities with the highest and lowest age-standardized HIV mortality rate in the last year of study for men, and over a 20-fold difference for women. Despite decreases in national HIV mortality in all countries-apart from Ecuador-across the period of study, we found broad variation in relative changes in HIV mortality at the municipality level and increasing relative inequality over time in all countries. In all six countries included in this analysis, 50% or more HIV deaths were concentrated in fewer than 10% of municipalities in the latest year of study. In addition, national age patterns reflected shifts in mortality to older age groups-the median age group among decedents ranged from 30 to 45years of age at the municipality level in Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico in 2017.ConclusionsOur subnational estimates of HIV mortality revealed significant spatial variation and diverging local trends in HIV mortality over time and by age. This analysis provides a framework for incorporating data and uncertainty from incomplete VR systems and can help guide more geographically precise public health intervention to support HIV-related care and reduce HIV-related deaths.Peer reviewe