Improving Incremental Balance in the GSI 3DVAR Analysis System

The Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) analysis system is a unified global/regional 3DVAR analysis code that has been under development for several years at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/Environmental Modeling Center. It has recently been implemented into operations at NCEP in both the global and North American data assimilation systems (GDAS and NDAS). An important aspect of this development has been improving the balance of the analysis produced by GSI. The improved balance between variables has been achieved through the inclusion of a Tangent Linear Normal Mode Constraint (TLNMC). The TLNMC method has proven to be very robust and effective. The TLNMC as part of the global GSI system has resulted in substantial improvement in data assimilation both at NCEP and at the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO)

Plasma adiponectin levels are associated with circulating inflammatory cytokines in autoantibody positive first-degree relatives of rheumatoid arthritis patients

Background Extra-articular manifestations of rheumatoid arthritis (RA), potentially due to systemic inflammation, include cardiovascular disease and sarcopenic obesity. Adiponectin, an adipose-derived cytokine, has been implicated in inflammatory processes in RA, but little is known regarding its association with inflammation in a pre-clinical period. Therefore, we investigated whether adiponectin was associated with inflammatory markers in individuals at risk for RA, and whether RA-related autoimmunity modifies these associations. Methods We analyzed samples from 144 first-degree relatives (FDRs) of RA probands, of whom 23 were positive for anti-cyclic citrullinated peptide antibody and/or ≥ 2 rheumatoid factor isotypes (IgM, IgG or IgA). We called this phenotype the ‘high risk autoantibody profile (HRP)’ as it has been shown in prior work to be >96% specific for future RA. We measured adiponectin, cytokines, and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP). Using linear mixed effects models, we evaluated interaction between HRP positivity and adiponectin on inflammatory markers, adjusting for age, sex, ethnicity, body mass index, pack-years smoking, and use of cholesterol-lowering medications. Results In everyone, adiponectin concentration was inversely associated with hsCRP and IL-1β in adjusted models, where a 1% higher adiponectin was associated with a 26% lower hsCRP (p = 0.04) and a 26% lower IL-1β (p = 0.04). Significant interactions between HRP and adiponectin for associations with GM-CSF, IL-6, and IL-9 were detected in fully adjusted models (p = 0.0006, p = 0.006, p = 0.01, respectively). In HRP positive FDRs but not HRP negative FDRs, a 1% higher adiponectin was associated with 97% higher GM-CSF, 73% higher IL-6, and 54% higher IL-9 concentrations. Conclusions Adiponectin associates with inflammatory markers, and these associations differ in individuals with a high-risk autoantibody profile compared with those without. The interaction between adiponectin and autoimmunity warrants further investigation into the potential systemic effects of RA-related autoantibodies and adiponectin on inflammation in the absence of clinically apparent RA

Coherent \pi^0 threshold production from the deuteron at Q^2 = 0.1 GeV^2/c^2

First data on coherent threshold \pi^0 electroproduction from the deuteron taken by the A1 Collaboration at the Mainz Microtron MAMI are presented. At a four-momentum transfer of q^2=-0.1 GeV^2/c^2 the full solid angle was covered up to a center-of-mass energy of 4 MeV above threshold. By means of a Rosenbluth separation the longitudinal threshold s wave multipole and an upper limit for the transverse threshold s wave multipole could be extracted and compared to predictions of Heavy Baryon Chiral Perturbation Theory.Comment: 7 pages, 7 figures, latex2

Self energies of the pion and the delta isobar from the ^3He(e,e'pi^+)^3H reaction

In a kinematically complete experiment at the Mainz microtron MAMI, pion angular distributions of the $^3$He(e,e'$\pi^+)^3$H reaction have been measured in the excitation region of the $\Delta$ resonance to determine the longitudinal ($L$), transverse ($T$), and the $LT$ interference part of the differential cross section. The data are described only after introducing self-energy modifications of the pion and $\Delta$-isobar propagators. Using Chiral Perturbation Theory (ChPT) to extrapolate the pion self energy as inferred from the measurement on the mass shell, we deduce a reduction of the $\pi^+$ mass of $\Delta m_{\pi^+} = (-1.7^{+ 1.7}_{- 2.1})$ MeV/c$^2$ in the neutron-rich nuclear medium at a density of $\rho = (0.057^{+ 0.085}_{- 0.057})$ fm$^{-3}$. Our data are consistent with the $\Delta$ self energy determined from measurements of $\pi^0$ photoproduction from $^4$He and heavier nuclei.Comment: Elsart, 12 pages and 4 figures, Correspondent: Professor Dr. Dr. h.c. mult. Achim Richter, [email protected], submitted to Phys. Rev. Let

Polarization transfer in the 4^{4}He(e⃗,e′p⃗3(\vec{e},e' \vec{p}^{3}H reaction

Polarization transfer in the 4He(e,e'p)3H reaction at a Q^2 of 0.4 (GeV/c)^2 was measured at the Mainz Microtron MAMI. The ratio of the transverse to the longitudinal polarization components of the ejected protons was compared with the same ratio for elastic ep scattering. The results are consistent with a recent fully relativistic calculation which includes a predicted medium modification of the proton form factor based on a quark-meson coupling model.Comment: 5 pages, Latex, 2 postscript figures, submitted to Physics Letters

Measurement of the recoil polarization in the p (\vec e, e' \vec p) pi^0 reaction at the \Delta(1232) resonance

The recoil proton polarization has been measured in the p (\vec e,e'\vec p) pi^0 reaction in parallel kinematics around W = 1232 MeV, Q^2 = 0.121 (GeV/c)^2 and epsilon = 0.718 using the polarized c.w. electron beam of the Mainz Microtron. Due to the spin precession in a magnetic spectrometer, all three proton polarization components P_x/P_e = (-11.4 \pm 1.3 \pm 1.4) %, P_y = (-43.1 \pm 1.3 \pm 2.2) %, and P_z/P_e = (56.2 \pm 1.5 \pm 2.6) % could be measured simultaneously. The Coulomb quadrupole to magnetic dipole ratio CMR = (-6.4\pm 0.7_{stat}\pm 0.8_{syst}) % was determined from P_x in the framework of the Mainz Unitary Isobar Model. The consistency among the reduced polarizations and the extraction of the ratio of longitudinal to transverse response is discussed.Comment: 5 pages LaTeX, 1 table, 2 eps figure

The first determination of Generalized Polarizabilities of the proton by a Virtual Compton Scattering experiment

Absolute differential cross sections for the reaction (e+p -> e+p+gamma) have been measured at a four-momentum transfer with virtuality Q^2=0.33 GeV^2 and polarization \epsilon = 0.62 in the range 33.6 to 111.5 MeV/c for the momentum of the outgoing photon in the photon-proton center of mass frame. The experiment has been performed with the high resolution spectrometers at the Mainz Microtron MAMI. From the photon angular distributions, two structure functions which are a linear combination of the generalized polarizabilities have been determined for the first time.Comment: 4 pages, 3 figure

A low-order model investigation of the analysis of gravity waves in the ensemble Kalman filter.

The behavior of the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is examined in the context of a model that exhibits a nonlinear chaotic (slow) vortical mode coupled to a linear (fast) gravity wave of a given amplitude and frequency. It is shown that accurate recovery of both modes is enhanced when covariances between fast and slow normal-mode variables (which reflect the slaving relations inherent in balanced dynamics) are modeled correctly. More ensemble members are needed to recover the fast, linear gravity wave than the slow, vortical motion. Although the EnKF tends to diverge in the analysis of the gravity wave, the filter divergence is stable and does not lead to a great loss of accuracy. Consequently, provided the ensemble is large enough and observations are made that reflect both time scales, the EnKF is able to recover both time scales more accurately than optimal interpolation (OI), which uses a static error covariance matrix. For OI it is also found to be problematic to observe the state at a frequency that is a subharmonic of the gravity wave frequency, a problem that is in part overcome by the EnKF.However, error in themodeled gravity wave parameters can be detrimental to the performance of the EnKF and remove its implied advantages, suggesting that a modified algorithm or a method for accounting for model error is needed

Variational analysis of drifter positions and model outputs for the reconstruction of surface currents in the central Adriatic during fall 2002

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2008. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research 113 (2008): C04004, doi:10.1029/2007JC004148.In this paper we present an application of a variational method for the reconstruction of the velocity field in a coastal flow in the central Adriatic Sea, using in situ data from surface drifters and outputs from the ROMS circulation model. The variational approach, previously developed and tested for mesoscale open ocean flows, has been improved and adapted to account for inhomogeneities on boundary current dynamics over complex bathymetry and coastline and for weak Lagrangian persistence in coastal flows. The velocity reconstruction is performed using nine drifter trajectories over 45 d, and a hierarchy of indirect tests is introduced to evaluate the results as the real ocean state is not known. For internal consistency and impact of the analysis, three diagnostics characterizing the particle prediction and transport, in terms of residence times in various zones and export rates from the boundary current toward the interior, show that the reconstruction is quite effective. A qualitative comparison with sea color data from the MODIS satellite images shows that the reconstruction significantly improves the description of the boundary current with respect to the ROMS model first guess, capturing its main features and its exchanges with the interior when sampled by the drifters.Four of the authors are supported by the Office of Naval Research, V.T. and A.G. under grants N00014-05-1-0094 and N00014-05-1-0095, P.M.P. under grant N00014-03-1-0291, and S.C. under grant N00014-05-1-0730. CNR-ISMAR activity was partially supported by P.O.R. ‘‘CAINO’’ (Regione Puglia), VECTOR (Italian MIUR) project, and ECOOP (EU project)