The disproportionate case–fatality ratio of COVID-19 between countries with the highest vaccination rates and the rest of the world

Objectives: The global reported cumulative case–fatality ratios (rCFRs) and excess mortality rates of the 20 countries with the highest coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination rates, the rest of the world and Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) were compared before and after the commencement of vaccination programmes. Methods: A time series model was used to understand the trend of rCFR over time, and a generalized linear mixed model was used to understand the effect of vaccination on rCFR. Results: By 31 December 2022, an average of 260.3 doses of COVID-19 vaccine per 100 population had been administered in the top 20 vaccinated countries, compared with 152.1 doses in the rest of the world and 51.2 doses in SSA. The mean rCFR of COVID-19 had decreased by 69.0% in the top 20 vaccinated countries, 26.5% in the rest of the world and 7.6% in SSA. Excess mortality had decreased by 48.7% in the top 20 vaccinated countries, compared with 62.5% in the rest of the world and 60.7% in SSA. In a generalized linear mixed model, the reported number of vaccine doses administered (/100 population) (odds ratio 0.64) was associated with a steeper reduction in COVID-19 rCFR. Conclusions: Vaccine equity and faster roll-out across the world is critically important in reducing COVID-19 transmission and CFR

The Global Health Security index and Joint External Evaluation score for health preparedness are not correlated with countries' COVID-19 detection response time and mortality outcome

Global Health Security Index (GHSI) and Joint External Evaluation (JEE) are two well-known health security and related capability indices. We hypothesised that countries with higher GHSI or JEE scores would have detected their first COVID-19 case earlier, and would experience lower mortality outcome compared to countries with lower scores. We evaluated the effectiveness of GHSI and JEE in predicting countries' COVID-19 detection response times and mortality outcome (deaths/million). We used two different outcomes for the evaluation: (i) detection response time, the duration of time to the first confirmed case detection (from 31st December 2019 to 20th February 2020 when every country's first case was linked to travel from China) and (ii) mortality outcome (deaths/million) until 11th March and 1st July 2020, respectively. We interpreted the detection response time alongside previously published relative risk of the importation of COVID-19 cases from China. We performed multiple linear regression and negative binomial regression analysis to evaluate how these indices predicted the actual outcome. The two indices, GHSI and JEE were strongly correlated (r = 0.82), indicating a good agreement between them. However, both GHSI (r = 0.31) and JEE (r = 0.37) had a poor correlation with countries' COVID-19–related mortality outcome. Higher risk of importation of COVID-19 from China for a given country was negatively correlated with the time taken to detect the first case in that country (adjusted R2 = 0.63–0.66), while the GHSI and JEE had minimal predictive value. In the negative binomial regression model, countries' mortality outcome was strongly predicted by the percentage of the population aged 65 and above (incidence rate ratio (IRR): 1.10 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.01–1.21) while overall GHSI score (IRR: 1.01 (95% CI: 0.98–1.01)) and JEE (IRR: 0.99 (95% CI: 0.96–1.02)) were not significant predictors. GHSI and JEE had lower predictive value for detection response time and mortality outcome due to COVID-19. We suggest introduction of a population healthiness parameter, to address demographic and comorbidity vulnerabilities, and reappraisal of the ranking system and methods used to obtain the index based on experience gained from this pandemic

The disproportionate case-fatality ratio of COVID-19 between top vaccinated countries and the rest of the world

Objectives We compared the global reported cumulative case-fatality ratio (rCFR) and excess mortality between top-20 countries with COVID-19 vaccination rates, the rest of the world and Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) before and after commencement of vaccination programmes. Methods We performed time series model to understand the trend of rCFR over time and performed generalized linear mixed model to understand role of vaccination on rCFR. Results By 31 December 2022, on average 260.3 doses of COVID-19 vaccines per 100 people had been administered in the top-20 vaccinated countries, compared to 152.1 doses in the rest of the world, and 51.2 in SSA. The mean rCFR of COVID-19 had dropped by 69.0% in the top in the top-20 vaccinated countries, 26.5% in the rest of the world and 7.6% in SSA. The excess mortality had dropped by 48.7% in top vaccinated countries compared to 62.5% in the rest of the world and 60.7% in SSA. In a generalized linear mixed model, reported number of vaccine doses administered doses (/100 population) (Odds ratio:0.64) was associated with a steeper reduction of the country's COVID-19 rCFR. Conclusions Vaccine equity and faster roll-out across the world is critically important in reducing COVID-19 transmission and CFR

National guidelines for the diagnosis and treatment of hilar cholangiocarcinoma

©The Author(s) 2024. Published by Baishideng Publishing Group Inc. All rights reserved.Peer reviewe

Essentially biased: why people are fatalistic about genes

We propose that people are genetic essentialists—that is, they tend to think of genetic attributions as being immutable, of a specific etiology, natural, and dividing people into homogenous and discrete groups. Although there are rare conditions where genes operate in these kinds of deterministic ways, people overgeneralize from these to the far more common conditions where genes are not at all deterministic. These essentialist biases are associated with some harmful outcomes such as racism, sexism, pessimism in the face of illnesses, political polarization, and support for eugenics, while at the same time they are linked with increased tolerance and sympathy for gay rights, mental illness, and less severe judgments of responsibility for crime. We will also discuss how these essentialist biases connect with the burgeoning direct-to-consumer genomics industry and various kinds of genetic engineering. Overall, these biases appear rather resistant to efforts to reduce them, although genetics literacy predicts weaker essentialist tendencies

Think globally, measure locally: The MIREN standardized protocol for monitoring plant species distributions along elevation gradients

Climate change and other global change drivers threaten plant diversity in mountains worldwide. A widely documented response to such environmental modifications is for plant species to change their elevational ranges. Range shifts are often idiosyncratic and difficult to generalize, partly due to variation in sampling methods. There is thus a need for a standardized monitoring strategy that can be applied across mountain regions to assess distribution changes and community turnover of native and non-native plant species over space and time. Here, we present a conceptually intuitive and standardized protocol developed by the Mountain Invasion Research Network (MIREN) to systematically quantify global patterns of native and non-native species distributions along elevation gradients and shifts arising from interactive effects of climate change and human disturbance. Usually repeated every five years, surveys consist of 20 sample sites located at equal elevation increments along three replicate roads per sampling region. At each site, three plots extend from the side of a mountain road into surrounding natural vegetation. The protocol has been successfully used in 18 regions worldwide from 2007 to present. Analyses of one point in time already generated some salient results, and revealed region-specific elevational patterns of native plant species richness, but a globally consistent elevational decline in non-native species richness. Non-native plants were also more abundant directly adjacent to road edges, suggesting that disturbed roadsides serve as a vector for invasions into mountains. From the upcoming analyses of time series, even more exciting results can be expected, especially about range shifts. Implementing the protocol in more mountain regions globally would help to generate a more complete picture of how global change alters species distributions. This would inform conservation policy in mountain ecosystems, where some conservation policies remain poorly implemented

Is Africa prepared for tackling the COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2) epidemic. Lessons from past outbreaks, ongoing pan-African public health efforts, and implications for the future

Soon after the novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2 (2019-nCoV), was first identified in a cluster of patients with pneumonia (Li et al., 2020), in the Chinese city of Wuhan on 31 December 2019, rapid human to human transmission was anticipated (Hui et al., 2020). The fast pace of transmission is wreaking havoc and stirring media hype and public health concern (Ippolito et al., 2020) globally. When the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the disease, (now officially named COVID-19) a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) on 31st January 2020 (WHO, 2020a), the Director General Dr Tedros Ghebreyesus justified the decision by stating that WHOs greatest concern was the potential for the virus to spread to countries with weaker health systems. Repeated outbreaks of other preventable emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases with epidemic potential have taken their toll on the health systems of many African countries. The devastating 2014–2016 Ebola Virus Epidemic (WHO, 2020b) in West Africa, demonstrated how ill-prepared the affected countries were to rapidly identify the infection and halt transmission (WHO, 2020d, Largent, 2016, Hoffman and Silverberg, 2018, Omoleke et al., 2016). Similarly, the smoldering remnants of the 2018–19 Ebola Virus outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo, have demonstrated even for health services with considerable experience of dealing with a certain emerging pathogen, geography and sociopolitical instability, can hamper the response (Aruna et al., 2019)

Mapping subnational HIV mortality in six Latin American countries with incomplete vital registration systems

Background: Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) remains a public health priority in Latin America. While the burden of HIV is historically concentrated in urban areas and high-risk groups, subnational estimates that cover multiple countries and years are missing. This paucity is partially due to incomplete vital registration (VR) systems and statistical challenges related to estimating mortality rates in areas with low numbers of HIV deaths. In this analysis, we address this gap and provide novel estimates of the HIV mortality rate and the number of HIV deaths by age group, sex, and municipality in Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Guatemala, and Mexico. Methods: We performed an ecological study using VR data ranging from 2000 to 2017, dependent on individual country data availability. We modeled HIV mortality using a Bayesian spatially explicit mixed-effects regression model that incorporates prior information on VR completeness. We calibrated our results to the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Results: All countries displayed over a 40-fold difference in HIV mortality between municipalities with the highest and lowest age-standardized HIV mortality rate in the last year of study for men, and over a 20-fold difference for women. Despite decreases in national HIV mortality in all countries—apart from Ecuador—across the period of study, we found broad variation in relative changes in HIV mortality at the municipality level and increasing relative inequality over time in all countries. In all six countries included in this analysis, 50% or more HIV deaths were concentrated in fewer than 10% of municipalities in the latest year of study. In addition, national age patterns reflected shifts in mortality to older age groups—the median age group among decedents ranged from 30 to 45 years of age at the municipality level in Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico in 2017. Conclusions: Our subnational estimates of HIV mortality revealed significant spatial variation and diverging local trends in HIV mortality over time and by age. This analysis provides a framework for incorporating data and uncertainty from incomplete VR systems and can help guide more geographically precise public health intervention to support HIV-related care and reduce HIV-related deaths