Extinction times in the subcritical stochastic SIS logistic epidemic

Many real epidemics of an infectious disease are not straightforwardly super- or sub-critical, and the understanding of epidemic models that exhibit such complexity has been identified as a priority for theoretical work. We provide insights into the near-critical regime by considering the stochastic SIS logistic epidemic, a well-known birth-and-death chain used to model the spread of an epidemic within a population of a given size $N$. We study the behaviour of the process as the population size $N$ tends to infinity. Our results cover the entire subcritical regime, including the "barely subcritical" regime, where the recovery rate exceeds the infection rate by an amount that tends to 0 as $N \to \infty$ but more slowly than $N^{-1/2}$. We derive precise asymptotics for the distribution of the extinction time and the total number of cases throughout the subcritical regime, give a detailed description of the course of the epidemic, and compare to numerical results for a range of parameter values. We hypothesise that features of the course of the epidemic will be seen in a wide class of other epidemic models, and we use real data to provide some tentative and preliminary support for this theory.Comment: Revised; 34 pages; 6 figure

The impact of trade reporting and central clearing on CDS price informativeness

We find that the magnitude of unique credit default swap (CDS) market information (constructed to be orthogonal to contemporaneous and lagged stock returns) declined after recent reforms that increased the level of post-trade regulatory and market transparency for CDSs. Around the same reforms, the ability of this CDS-unique information to predict future stock returns decreased. These results suggest the CDS market has become less of a “hidden” trading venue for informed investors since central clearing and trade reporting started

Advances in MRI Assessment of Gliomas and Response to Anti-VEGF Therapy

Bevacizumab is thought to normalize tumor vasculature and restore the blood–brain barrier, decreasing enhancement and peritumoral edema. Conventional measurements of tumor response rely upon dimensions of enhancing tumor. After bevacizumab treatment, glioblastomas are more prone to progress as nonenhancing tumor. The RANO (Response Assessment in Neuro-Oncology) criteria for glioma response use fluid-attenuated inversion recovery (FLAIR)/T2 hyperintensity as a surrogate for nonenhancing tumor; however, nonenhancing tumor can be difficult to differentiate from other causes of FLAIR/T2 hyperintensity (eg, radiation-induced gliosis). Due to these difficulties, recent efforts have been directed toward identifying new biomarkers that either predict treatment response or accurately measure response of both enhancing and nonenhancing tumor shortly after treatment initiation. This will allow for earlier treatment decisions, saving patients from the adverse effects of ineffective therapies while allowing them to try alternative therapies sooner. An active area of research is the use of physiologic imaging, which can potentially detect treatment effects before changes in tumor size are evident

Chromosomal aberrations in benign and malignant Bilharzia-associated bladder lesions analyzed by comparative genomic hybridization

BACKGROUND: Bilharzia-associated bladder cancer (BAC) is a major health problem in countries where urinary schistosomiasis is endemic. Characterization of the genetic alterations in this cancer might enhance our understanding of the pathogenic mechanisms of the disease but, in contrast to nonbilharzia bladder cancer, BAC has rarely been the object of such scrutiny. In the present study, we aimed to characterize chromosomal imbalances in benign and malignant post-bilharzial lesions, and to determine whether their unique etiology yields a distinct cytogenetic profile as compared to chemically induced bladder tumors. METHODS: DNAs from 20 archival paraffin-embedded post-bilharzial bladder lesions (6 benign and 14 malignant) obtained from Sudanese patients (12 males and 8 females) with a history of urinary bilharziasis were investigated for chromosomal imbalances using comparative genomic hybridization (CGH). Subsequent FISH analysis with pericentromeric probes was performed on paraffin sections of the same cases to confirm the CGH results. RESULTS: Seven of the 20 lesions (6 carcinomas and one granuloma) showed chromosomal imbalances varying from 1 to 6 changes. The most common chromosomal imbalances detected were losses of 1p21-31, 8p21-pter, and 9p and gain of 19p material, seen in three cases each, including the benign lesion. CONCLUSION: Most of the detected imbalances have been repeatedly reported in non-bilharzial bladder carcinomas, suggesting that the cytogenetic profiles of chemical- and bilharzia-induced carcinomas are largely similar. However, loss of 9p seems to be more ubiquitous in BAC than in bladder cancer in industrialized countries

Heritability of seed weight in Maritime pine, a relevant trait in the transmission of environmental maternal effects

Quantitative seed provisioning is an important life-history trait with strong effects on offspring phenotype and fitness. As for any other trait, heritability estimates are vital for understanding its evolutionary dynamics. However, being a trait in between two generations, estimating additive genetic variation of seed provisioning requires complex quantitative genetic approaches for distinguishing between true genetic and environmental maternal effects. Here, using Maritime pine as a long-lived plant model, we quantified additive genetic variation of cone and seed weight (SW) mean and SW within-individual variation. We used a powerful approach combining both half-sib analysis and parent-offspring regression using several common garden tests established in contrasting environments to separate G, E and G x E effects. Both cone weight and SW mean showed significant genetic variation but were also influenced by the maternal environment. Most of the large variation in SW mean was attributable to additive genetic effects (h(2) = 0.55-0.74). SW showed no apparent G x E interaction, particularly when accounting for cone weight covariation, suggesting that the maternal genotypes actively control the SW mean irrespective of the amount of resources allocated to cones. Within-individual variation in SW was low (12%) relative to between-individual variation (88%), and showed no genetic variation but was largely affected by the maternal environment, with greater variation in the less favourable sites for pine growth. In summary, results were very consistent between the parental and the offspring common garden tests, and clearly indicated heritable genetic variation for SW mean but not for within-individual variation in SW.This study was financed by the Spanish National Research Grants RTA2007-100 and AGL2012-40151 (FENOPIN), both co-financed by EU-FEDER. The progeny trials and the clonal seed orchards are part of the experimental set up of the Maritime pine breeding programme developed by the Centro de Investigacion Forestal de Lourizan, Xunta de Galicia.Spanish National Research Grant RTA2007-100Spanish National Research Grant AGL2012-40151 (FENOPIN)EU-FEDERPeer reviewe

Antiangiogenic agents in the treatment of recurrent or newly diagnosed glioblastoma: Analysis of single-agent and combined modality approaches

Surgical resection followed by radiotherapy and temozolomide in newly diagnosed glioblastoma can prolong survival, but it is not curative. For patients with disease progression after frontline therapy, there is no standard of care, although further surgery, chemotherapy, and radiotherapy may be used. Antiangiogenic therapies may be appropriate for treating glioblastomas because angiogenesis is critical to tumor growth. In a large, noncomparative phase II trial, bevacizumab was evaluated alone and with irinotecan in patients with recurrent glioblastoma; combination treatment was associated with an estimated 6-month progression-free survival (PFS) rate of 50.3%, a median overall survival of 8.9 months, and a response rate of 37.8%. Single-agent bevacizumab also exceeded the predetermined threshold of activity for salvage chemotherapy (6-month PFS rate, 15%), achieving a 6-month PFS rate of 42.6% (p < 0.0001). On the basis of these results and those from another phase II trial, the US Food and Drug Administration granted accelerated approval of single-agent bevacizumab for the treatment of glioblastoma that has progressed following prior therapy. Potential antiangiogenic agents-such as cilengitide and XL184-also show evidence of single-agent activity in recurrent glioblastoma. Moreover, the use of antiangiogenic agents with radiation at disease progression may improve the therapeutic ratio of single-modality approaches. Overall, these agents appear to be well tolerated, with adverse event profiles similar to those reported in studies of other solid tumors. Further research is needed to determine the role of antiangiogenic therapy in frontline treatment and to identify the optimal schedule and partnering agents for use in combination therapy

Mineralogical and geochemical analysis of Fe-phases in drill-cores from the Triassic Stuttgart Formation at Ketzin CO₂ storage site before CO₂ arrival

Reactive iron (Fe) oxides and sheet silicate-bound Fe in reservoir rocks may affect the subsurface storage of CO2 through several processes by changing the capacity to buffer the acidification by CO2 and the permeability of the reservoir rock: (1) the reduction of three-valent Fe in anoxic environments can lead to an increase in pH, (2) under sulphidic conditions, Fe may drive sulphur cycling and lead to the formation of pyrite, and (3) the leaching of Fe from sheet silicates may affect silicate diagenesis. In order to evaluate the importance of Fe-reduction on the CO2 reservoir, we analysed the Fe geochemistry in drill-cores from the Triassic Stuttgart Formation (Schilfsandstein) recovered from the monitoring well at the CO2 test injection site near Ketzin, Germany. The reservoir rock is a porous, poorly to moderately cohesive fluvial sandstone containing up to 2–4 wt% reactive Fe. Based on a sequential extraction, most Fe falls into the dithionite-extractable Fe-fraction and Fe bound to sheet silicates, whereby some Fe in the dithionite-extractable Fe-fraction may have been leached from illite and smectite. Illite and smectite were detected in core samples by X-ray diffraction and confirmed as the main Fe-containing mineral phases by X-ray absorption spectroscopy. Chlorite is also present, but likely does not contribute much to the high amount of Fe in the silicate-bound fraction. The organic carbon content of the reservoir rock is extremely low (<0.3 wt%), thus likely limiting microbial Fe-reduction or sulphate reduction despite relatively high concentrations of reactive Fe-mineral phases in the reservoir rock and sulphate in the reservoir fluid. Both processes could, however, be fuelled by organic matter that is mobilized by the flow of supercritical CO2 or introduced with the drilling fluid. Over long time periods, a potential way of liberating additional reactive Fe could occur through weathering of silicates due to acidification by CO2

The Role of the Proteinase Inhibitor Ovorubin in Apple Snail Eggs Resembles Plant Embryo Defense against Predation

BACKGROUND: Fieldwork has thoroughly established that most eggs are intensely predated. Among the few exceptions are the aerial egg clutches from the aquatic snail Pomacea canaliculata which have virtually no predators. Its defenses are advertised by the pigmented ovorubin perivitellin providing a conspicuous reddish coloration. The nature of the defense however, was not clear, except for a screening for defenses that identified a neurotoxic perivitellin with lethal effect on rodents. Ovorubin is a proteinase inhibitor (PI) whose role to protect against pathogens was taken for granted, according to the prevailing assumption. Through biochemical, biophysical and feeding experiments we studied the proteinase inhibitor function of ovorubin in egg defenses. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Mass spectrometry sequencing indicated ovorubin belongs to the Kunitz-type serine proteinase inhibitor family. It specifically binds trypsin as determined by small angle X-ray scattering (SAXS) and cross-linking studies but, in contrast to the classical assumption, it does not prevent bacterial growth. Ovorubin was found extremely resistant to in vitro gastrointestinal proteolysis. Moreover feeding studies showed that ovorubin ingestion diminishes growth rate in rats indicating that this highly stable PI is capable of surviving passage through the gastrointestinal tract in a biologically active form. CONCLUSIONS: To our knowledge, this is the first direct evidence of the interaction of an egg PI with a digestive protease of potential predators, limiting predator's ability to digest egg nutrients. This role has not been reported in the animal kingdom but it is similar to plant defenses against herbivory. Further, this would be the only defense model with no trade-offs between conspicuousness and noxiousness by encoding into the same molecule both the aposematic warning signal and an antinutritive/antidigestive defense. These defenses, combined with a neurotoxin and probably unpalatable factors would explain the near absence of predators, opening new perspectives in the study of the evolution and ecology of egg defensive strategies

Stabilization of Dicentric Translocations through Secondary Rearrangements Mediated by Multiple Mechanisms in S. cerevisiae

The gross chromosomal rearrangements (GCRs) observed in S. cerevisiae mutants with increased rates of accumulating GCRs include predicted dicentric GCRs such as translocations, chromosome fusions and isoduplications. These GCRs resemble the genome rearrangements found as mutations underlying inherited diseases as well as in the karyotypes of many cancers exhibiting ongoing genome instabilityThe structures of predicted dicentric GCRs were analyzed using multiple strategies including array-comparative genomic hybridization, pulse field gel electrophoresis, PCR amplification of predicted breakpoints and sequencing. The dicentric GCRs were found to be unstable and to have undergone secondary rearrangements to produce stable monocentric GCRs. The types of secondary rearrangements observed included: non-homologous end joining (NHEJ)-dependent intramolecular deletion of centromeres; chromosome breakage followed by NHEJ-mediated circularization or broken-end fusion to another chromosome telomere; and homologous recombination (HR)-dependent non-reciprocal translocations apparently mediated by break-induced replication. A number of these GCRs appeared to have undergone multiple bridge-fusion-breakage cycles. We also observed examples of chromosomes with extensive ongoing end decay in mec1 tlc1 mutants, suggesting that Mec1 protects chromosome ends from degradation and contributes to telomere maintenance by HR.HR between repeated sequences resulting in secondary rearrangements was the most prevalent pathway for resolution of dicentric GCRs regardless of the structure of the initial dicentric GCR, although at least three other resolution mechanisms were observed. The resolution of dicentric GCRs to stable rearranged chromosomes could in part account for the complex karyotypes seen in some cancers

Nondisjunction of a Single Chromosome Leads to Breakage and Activation of DNA Damage Checkpoint in G2

The resolution of chromosomes during anaphase is a key step in mitosis. Failure to disjoin chromatids compromises the fidelity of chromosome inheritance and generates aneuploidy and chromosome rearrangements, conditions linked to cancer development. Inactivation of topoisomerase II, condensin, or separase leads to gross chromosome nondisjunction. However, the fate of cells when one or a few chromosomes fail to separate has not been determined. Here, we describe a genetic system to induce mitotic progression in the presence of nondisjunction in yeast chromosome XII right arm (cXIIr), which allows the characterisation of the cellular fate of the progeny. Surprisingly, we find that the execution of karyokinesis and cytokinesis is timely and produces severing of cXIIr on or near the repetitive ribosomal gene array. Consequently, one end of the broken chromatid finishes up in each of the new daughter cells, generating a novel type of one-ended double-strand break. Importantly, both daughter cells enter a new cycle and the damage is not detected until the next G2, when cells arrest in a Rad9-dependent manner. Cytologically, we observed the accumulation of damage foci containing RPA/Rad52 proteins but failed to detect Mre11, indicating that cells attempt to repair both chromosome arms through a MRX-independent recombinational pathway. Finally, we analysed several surviving colonies arising after just one cell cycle with cXIIr nondisjunction. We found that aberrant forms of the chromosome were recovered, especially when RAD52 was deleted. Our results demonstrate that, in yeast cells, the Rad9-DNA damage checkpoint plays an important role responding to compromised genome integrity caused by mitotic nondisjunction