Using reanalysis data to quantify extreme wind power generation statistics: a 33 year case study in Great Britain

With a rapidly increasing fraction of electricity generation being sourced from wind, extreme wind power generation events such as prolonged periods of low (or high) generation and ramps in generation, are a growing concern for the efficient and secure operation of national power systems. As extreme events occur infrequently, long and reliable meteorological records are required to accurately estimate their characteristics. Recent publications have begun to investigate the use of global meteorological “reanalysis” data sets for power system applications, many of which focus on long-term average statistics such as monthly-mean generation. Here we demonstrate that reanalysis data can also be used to estimate the frequency of relatively short-lived extreme events (including ramping on sub-daily time scales). Verification against 328 surface observation stations across the United Kingdom suggests that near-surface wind variability over spatiotemporal scales greater than around 300 km and 6 h can be faithfully reproduced using reanalysis, with no need for costly dynamical downscaling. A case study is presented in which a state-of-the-art, 33 year reanalysis data set (MERRA, from NASA-GMAO), is used to construct an hourly time series of nationally-aggregated wind power generation in Great Britain (GB), assuming a fixed, modern distribution of wind farms. The resultant generation estimates are highly correlated with recorded data from National Grid in the recent period, both for instantaneous hourly values and for variability over time intervals greater than around 6 h. This 33 year time series is then used to quantify the frequency with which different extreme GB-wide wind power generation events occur, as well as their seasonal and inter-annual variability. Several novel insights into the nature of extreme wind power generation events are described, including (i) that the number of prolonged low or high generation events is well approximated by a Poission-like random process, and (ii) whilst in general there is large seasonal variability, the magnitude of the most extreme ramps is similar in both summer and winter. An up-to-date version of the GB case study data as well as the underlying model are freely available for download from our website: http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~energymet/data/Cannon2014/

The rp-process and new measurements of beta-delayed proton decay of light Ag and Cd isotopes

Recent network calculations suggest that a high temperature rp-process could explain the abundances of light Mo and Ru isotopes, which have long challenged models of p-process nuclide production. Important ingredients to network calculations involving unstable nuclei near and at the proton drip line are $\beta$-halflives and decay modes, i.e., whether or not $\beta$-delayed proton decay takes place. Of particular importance to these network calculation are the proton-rich isotopes $^{96}$Ag, $^{98}$Ag, $^{96}$Cd and $^{98}$Cd. We report on recent measurements of $\beta$-delayed proton branching ratios for $^{96}$Ag, $^{98}$Ag, and $^{98}$Cd at the on-line mass separator at GSI.Comment: 4 pages, uses espcrc1.sty. Proceedings of the 4th International Symposium Nuclei in the Cosmos, June 1996, Notre Dame/IN, USA, Ed. M. Wiescher, to be published in Nucl.Phys.A. Also available at ftp://ftp.physics.ohio-state.edu/pub/nucex/nic96-gs

A quantum Monte Carlo study of the one-dimensional ionic Hubbard model

Quantum Monte Carlo methods are used to study a quantum phase transition in a 1D Hubbard model with a staggered ionic potential (D). Using recently formulated methods, the electronic polarization and localization are determined directly from the correlated ground state wavefunction and compared to results of previous work using exact diagonalization and Hartree-Fock. We find that the model undergoes a thermodynamic transition from a band insulator (BI) to a broken-symmetry bond ordered (BO) phase as the ratio of U/D is increased. Since it is known that at D = 0 the usual Hubbard model is a Mott insulator (MI) with no long-range order, we have searched for a second transition to this state by (i) increasing U at fixed ionic potential (D) and (ii) decreasing D at fixed U. We find no transition from the BO to MI state, and we propose that the MI state in 1D is unstable to bond ordering under the addition of any finite ionic potential. In real 1D systems the symmetric MI phase is never stable and the transition is from a symmetric BI phase to a dimerized BO phase, with a metallic point at the transition

Larval dispersion along an axially symmetric mid-ocean ridge

Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2009. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Elsevier B.V. for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Deep Sea Research Part I: Oceanographic Research Papers 57 (2010): 880-892, doi:10.1016/j.dsr.2010.04.003.We investigated planktonic larval transport processes along an axially symmetric mid-ocean ridge with characteristics similar to that of the East Pacific Rise (EPR) segment at 9-10°N. The hydrodynamic basis for this study is a primitive equation model implemented in two dimensions (depth and across-ridge), forced at the open boundaries to provide suitably realistic simulation of currents observed on the EPR ridge crest from May to November 1999. Three-dimensional trajectories of numerical larvae are computed assuming homogeneity in currents in the along-ridge direction. Larval dispersal fluctuates significantly in time. Transport distance decreases systematically with height above the bottom where numerical larvae are less subject to strong currents along the flanks of the ridge. The probability that the simulated larvae will be located near the ridge crest at settlement depends strongly on their behavioral characteristics (vertical position in the water column during the larval stage) and the length of their precompetency period.We gratefully acknowledge the support of NSF grant OCE-0424953, which funded the Larval Dispersion along the Deep East Pacific Rise (LADDER) project. JWL was supported by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Vents Program and by NOAA’s Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory

Persistent negative symptoms in youth at clinical high risk for psychosis: A longitudinal study

Background: Severity of negative symptoms has been associated with poor functioning, cognitive deficits, and defeatist beliefs in schizophrenia patients. However, one area that remains understudied is persistent negative symptoms (PNS). Negative symptoms, including PNS, have been observed in those at clinical high-risk (CHR) for psychosis. The aim of this study was to determine if PNS were associated with functioning, neurocognition, and defeatist beliefs in a CHR sample. Method: CHR participants (n = 764) were recruited for the North American Prodrome Longitudinal Study. Negative symptoms were rated on the Scale of Psychosis-risk Symptoms. Generalized linear mixed models for repeated measures were used to examine changes over time between and within groups (PNS vs non-PNS). Results: The PNS group (n = 67) had significant deficits in functioning at baseline, 6, 12, 18, and 24-months compared to the non-PNS group (n = 673). Functioning improved over time in the non-PNS group, while functioning in the PNS group remained relatively stable and poor over a two-year period. A consistent trend emerged demonstrating higher defeatist beliefs in the PNS group; however, this result was lost when controlling for persistent depressive symptoms. There were no significant differences between the groups on neurocognition, social cognition, and transition to psychosis. Conclusions: PNS exist in youth at CHR for psychosis, resulting in significant and persistent functional impairment, which remains when controlling for persistent depressive symptoms. PNS remain even in CHR youth who do not transition to psychosis. Thus, PNS may represent an unmet therapeutic need in CHR populations for which there are currently no effective treatments

Selection for psychosocial treatment for youth at clinical high risk for psychosis based on the North American Prodrome Longitudinal Study individualized risk calculator

Aim: Recent findings suggest that family-focused therapy (FFT) is effective for individuals at clinical high-risk for psychosis (CHR-P). As outcomes of CHR-P individuals are quite varied, certain psychosocial interventions may be differentially effective in subgroups. The present study examined change in positive symptoms for CHR-P individuals at different levels of predicted risk for conversion to psychosis who received either FFT, a brief form of family education termed enhanced care (EC) or treatment as usual. Methods: Participants were drawn from the North American Prodromal Longitudinal Study (NAPLS2). A subset of NAPLS2 participants completed a randomized study involving FFT or EC. The present study includes participants from the FFT-CHR sub-study and non-randomized NAPLS2 participants. Predicted risk of conversion was calculated using the Individualized Risk Calculator for Psychosis. Robust linear regressions evaluated whether the association between predicted risk of conversion and positive symptom change differed across intervention groups. Results: A total of 94 participants from the FFT-CHR sub-study (FFT-CHR n = 50, EC n = 44) and 401 non-randomized NAPLS2 participants were included in this study. There was a treatment group by predicted risk of conversion interaction that predicted positive symptom improvement: higher risk individuals improved more with FFT-CHR than EC or the non-randomized NAPLS group, whereas lower-risk individuals did not differ in positive symptom improvement across treatment groups (FFT-CHR vs EC: P =.03, β = 20.27; FFT-CHR vs NAPLS2: P <.001, β = 28.40). Conclusions: Intensive treatments such as FFT-CHR may be most appropriate for individuals at the highest levels of clinical risk for psychosis

Young and Intermediate-age Distance Indicators

Distance measurements beyond geometrical and semi-geometrical methods, rely mainly on standard candles. As the name suggests, these objects have known luminosities by virtue of their intrinsic proprieties and play a major role in our understanding of modern cosmology. The main caveats associated with standard candles are their absolute calibration, contamination of the sample from other sources and systematic uncertainties. The absolute calibration mainly depends on their chemical composition and age. To understand the impact of these effects on the distance scale, it is essential to develop methods based on different sample of standard candles. Here we review the fundamental properties of young and intermediate-age distance indicators such as Cepheids, Mira variables and Red Clump stars and the recent developments in their application as distance indicators.Comment: Review article, 63 pages (28 figures), Accepted for publication in Space Science Reviews (Chapter 3 of a special collection resulting from the May 2016 ISSI-BJ workshop on Astronomical Distance Determination in the Space Age

Amine Containing Analogs of Sulindac for Cancer Prevention

Background: Sulindac belongs to the chemically diverse family of Non-Steroidal Anti-Inflammatory Drugs (NSAIDs) that effectively prevent adenomatous colorectal polyps and colon cancer, especially in patients with familial adenomatous polyposis. Sulindac sulfide amide (SSA), an amide analog of sulindac sulfide, shows insignificant COX-related activity and toxicity while enhancing anticancer activity in vitro and demonstrating in vivo xenograft activity. Objective: Develop structure-activity relationships in the sulindac amine series and identify analogs with promising anticancer activities. Method: A series of sulindac amine analogs were designed and synthesized and then further modified in a “libraries from libraries” approach to produce amide, sulfonamide and N,N-disubstituted sulindac amine sub-libraries. All analogs were screened against three cancer cell lines (prostate, colon and breast). Results: Several active compounds were identified viain vitro cancer cell line screening with the most potent compound (26) in the nanomolar range. Conclusion: Compound 26 and analogs showing the most potent inhibitory activity may be considered for further design and optimization efforts as anticancer hit scaffolds

Horizontal Branch Stars: The Interplay between Observations and Theory, and Insights into the Formation of the Galaxy

We review HB stars in a broad astrophysical context, including both variable and non-variable stars. A reassessment of the Oosterhoff dichotomy is presented, which provides unprecedented detail regarding its origin and systematics. We show that the Oosterhoff dichotomy and the distribution of globular clusters (GCs) in the HB morphology-metallicity plane both exclude, with high statistical significance, the possibility that the Galactic halo may have formed from the accretion of dwarf galaxies resembling present-day Milky Way satellites such as Fornax, Sagittarius, and the LMC. A rediscussion of the second-parameter problem is presented. A technique is proposed to estimate the HB types of extragalactic GCs on the basis of integrated far-UV photometry. The relationship between the absolute V magnitude of the HB at the RR Lyrae level and metallicity, as obtained on the basis of trigonometric parallax measurements for the star RR Lyrae, is also revisited, giving a distance modulus to the LMC of (m-M)_0 = 18.44+/-0.11. RR Lyrae period change rates are studied. Finally, the conductive opacities used in evolutionary calculations of low-mass stars are investigated. [ABRIDGED]Comment: 56 pages, 22 figures. Invited review, to appear in Astrophysics and Space Scienc

A First Search for coincident Gravitational Waves and High Energy Neutrinos using LIGO, Virgo and ANTARES data from 2007

We present the results of the first search for gravitational wave bursts associated with high energy neutrinos. Together, these messengers could reveal new, hidden sources that are not observed by conventional photon astronomy, particularly at high energy. Our search uses neutrinos detected by the underwater neutrino telescope ANTARES in its 5 line configuration during the period January - September 2007, which coincided with the fifth and first science runs of LIGO and Virgo, respectively. The LIGO-Virgo data were analysed for candidate gravitational-wave signals coincident in time and direction with the neutrino events. No significant coincident events were observed. We place limits on the density of joint high energy neutrino - gravitational wave emission events in the local universe, and compare them with densities of merger and core-collapse events.Comment: 19 pages, 8 figures, science summary page at http://www.ligo.org/science/Publication-S5LV_ANTARES/index.php. Public access area to figures, tables at https://dcc.ligo.org/cgi-bin/DocDB/ShowDocument?docid=p120000