Does implied volatility reflect a wider information set than econometric forecasts?

Much research has addressed the relative performance of option implied volatilities and econometric model based forecasts in terms of forecasting asset return volatility. The general theme to come from this body of work is that implied volatility is a superior forecast. Some authors attribute this to the fact that option markets use a wider information set when forming their forecasts of volatility. This article considers this issue and determines whether S&P 500 implied volatility reflects a set of economic information beyond its impact on the prevailing level of volatility. It is found, that while the implied volatility subsumes this information, as do model based forecasts, this is only due to its impact on the current or prevailing level of volatility. Therefore, it appears as though implied volatility does not reflect a wider information set than model based forecasts, implying that implied volatility forecasts simply reflect volatility persistence in much the same way of as do econometric models.Implied volatility, VIX, volatility forecasts, informational efficiency

Neither amateurs nor professionals: The status of Greek Athletes

The aim of this chapter is to question whether it is reasonable to apply the labels "amateurs" or "professionals" to Ancient Olympics, whether they fit the specific features of ancient athletics, and whether they are useful tools or mere obstacles for an understanding of the ancient phenomena. This article argues that neither of the two terms helps in understanding the social reality of ancient athletes