High unreported mortality in children and youth (<25 years) living with HIV who were lost to care from antiretroviral therapy programs in Southern Africa: results from a multi-country tracing study.

BACKGROUND Antiretroviral therapy (ART) program mortality maybe underestimated if deceased patients are misclassified as lost. METHODS We used two-stage inverse probability weighting to account for probability of being: sampled for tracing and found by the tracer. RESULTS Among 680 children and youth aged <25 years on ART who were lost and traced in Southern Africa between October 2017-November 2019, estimated mortality was high at 9.1% (62/680). After adjusting for measured covariates and within-site clustering, mortality remained lower for young adults aged 20-24 years compared to infants aged <2years (adjusted Hazard ratio (aHR): 0.40 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.31, 0.51)). CONCLUSIONS Our study confirms high unreported mortality in children and youth who are lost and the need for tracing to assess vital status among those who are lost to accurately report on program mortality

Correcting mortality estimates among children and youth on antiretroviral therapy in southern Africa: A comparative analysis between a multi-country tracing study and linkage to a health information exchange.

OBJECTIVES The objective of this study is to assess the outcomes of children, adolescents and young adults with HIV reported as lost to follow-up, correct mortality estimates for children, adolescents and young adults with HIV for unascertained outcomes in those loss to follow-up (LTFU) based on tracing and linkage data separately using data from the International epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS in Southern Africa. METHODS We included data from two different populations of children, adolescents and young adults with HIV; (1) clinical data from children, adolescents and young adults with HIV aged ≤24 years from Lesotho, Malawi, Mozambique, Zambia and Zimbabwe; (2) clinical data from children, adolescents and young adults with HIV aged ≤14 years from the Western Cape (WC) in South Africa. Outcomes of patients lost to follow-up were available from (1) a tracing study and (2) linkage to a health information exchange. For both populations, we compared six methods for correcting mortality estimates for all children, adolescents and young adults with HIV. RESULTS We found substantial variations of mortality estimates among children, adolescents and young adults with HIV reported as lost to follow-up versus those retained in care. Ascertained mortality was higher among lost and traceable children, adolescents and young adults with HIV and lower among lost and linkable than those retained in care (mortality: 13.4% [traced] vs. 12.6% [retained-other Southern Africa countries]; 3.4% [linked] vs. 9.4% [retained-WC]). A high proportion of lost to follow-up children, adolescents and young adults with HIV had self-transferred (21.0% and 47.0%) in the traced and linked samples, respectively. The uncorrected method of non-informative censoring yielded the lowest mortality estimates among all methods for both tracing (6.0%) and linkage (4.0%) approaches at 2 years from ART start. Among corrected methods using ascertained data, multiple imputation, incorporating ascertained data (MI(asc.)) and inverse probability weighting with logistic weights were most robust for the tracing approach. In contrast, for the linkage approach, MI(asc.) was the most robust. CONCLUSIONS Our findings emphasise that lost to follow-up is non-ignorable and both tracing and linkage improved outcome ascertainment: tracing identified substantial mortality in those reported as lost to follow-up, whereas linkage did not identify out-of-facility deaths, but showed that a large proportion of those reported as lost to follow-up were self-transfers

Vascular responses of the extremities to transdermal application of vasoactive agents in Caucasian and African descent individuals

This is an accepted manuscript of an article published by Springer in European Journal of Applied Physiology on 04/04/2015, available online: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00421-015-3164-2 The accepted version of the publication may differ from the final published version.© 2015, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. Purpose: Individuals of African descent (AFD) are more susceptible to non-freezing cold injury than Caucasians (CAU) which may be due, in part, to differences in the control of skin blood flow. We investigated the skin blood flow responses to transdermal application of vasoactive agents. Methods: Twenty-four young males (12 CAU and 12 AFD) undertook three tests in which iontophoresis was used to apply acetylcholine (ACh 1 w/v %), sodium nitroprusside (SNP 0.01 w/v %) and noradrenaline (NA 0.5 mM) to the skin. The skin sites tested were: volar forearm, non-glabrous finger and toe, and glabrous finger (pad) and toe (pad). Results: In response to SNP on the forearm, AFD had less vasodilatation for a given current application than CAU (P = 0.027–0.004). ACh evoked less vasodilatation in AFD for a given application current in the non-glabrous finger and toe compared with CAU (P = 0.043–0.014) with a lower maximum vasodilatation in the non-glabrous finger (median [interquartile], AFD n = 11, 41[234] %, CAU n = 12, 351[451] %, P = 0.011) and non-glabrous toe (median [interquartile], AFD n = 9, 116[318] %, CAU n = 12, 484[720] %, P = 0.018). ACh and SNP did not elicit vasodilatation in the glabrous skin sites of either group. There were no ethnic differences in response to NA. Conclusion: AFD have an attenuated endothelium-dependent vasodilatation in non-glabrous sites of the fingers and toes compared with CAU. This may contribute to lower skin temperature following cold exposure and the increased risk of cold injuries experienced by AFD.Published versio

When to Start Antiretroviral Therapy in Children Aged 2–5 Years: A Collaborative Causal Modelling Analysis of Cohort Studies from Southern Africa

There is limited evidence on the optimal timing of antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation in children 2–5 y of age. We conducted a causal modelling analysis using the International Epidemiologic Databases to Evaluate AIDS–Southern Africa (IeDEA-SA) collaborative dataset to determine the difference in mortality when starting ART in children aged 2–5 y immediately (irrespective of CD4 criteria), as recommended in the World Health Organization (WHO) 2013 guidelines, compared to deferring to lower CD4 thresholds, for example, the WHO 2010 recommended threshold of CD4 count <750 cells/mm3 or CD4 percentage (CD4%) <25%

Artificial intelligence (AI): multidisciplinary perspectives on emerging challenges, opportunities, and agenda for research and practice

As far back as the industrial revolution, great leaps in technical innovation succeeded in transforming numerous manual tasks and processes that had been in existence for decades where humans had reached the limits of physical capacity. Artificial Intelligence (AI) offers this same transformative potential for the augmentation and potential replacement of human tasks and activities within a wide range of industrial, intellectual and social applications. The pace of change for this new AI technological age is staggering, with new breakthroughs in algorithmic machine learning and autonomous decision making engendering new opportunities for continued innovation. The impact of AI is significant, with industries ranging from: finance, retail, healthcare, manufacturing, supply chain and logistics all set to be disrupted by the onset of AI technologies. The study brings together the collective insight from a number of leading expert contributors to highlight the significant opportunities, challenges and potential research agenda posed by the rapid emergence of AI within a number of domains: technological, business and management, science and technology, government and public sector. The research offers significant and timely insight to AI technology and its impact on the future of industry and society in general

Disputatio Medica Inauguralis De Suppressione Mensium

Quam ... Praeside ... Dn. Michaele Sennerto ... publice examinandam proponit Michael Cleophas, Thorunio-Prussus. In Auditorio Maiori d. 11. Augusti ...Nicht identisch mit VD17 29:727648D (dort mit Widmung auf Rückseite der Titelseite

Ten myths of revenue management – A practitioner's view

Ten generally acknowledged facts of revenue management are listed and described. They are considered critically and assessed in the light of literature and practice. The list includes `myths' such as `Revenue Management maximizes revenue', `Revenue Management gives a competitive edge' and `Revenue Management is improved by network considerations'

Simulation-based key performance indicators for evaluating the quality of airline demand forecasting

This article describes an approach to evaluating the quality of airline demand forecasting. It presents a a simulation framework that includes a detailed model for generating artificial demand. In this system forecasting methods can be compared in a stable, controllable environment. Their performance may be rated based on the overall system output in terms of revenue and bookings as well as through common error measurements. In addition, the use of a psychic forecast as a benchmark is proposed and illustrated by first results

Recent developments in demand forecasting for airline revenue management

Revenue management for airlines strives to maximise revenue as the sum of fares earned through customer bookings. Since the internet enables customers to make more informed choices and low-cost carriers introduced the concept of restriction-free fares, forecasting for airline revenue management has faced new challenges. In addition, advances in dynamic pricing allow for a more sophisticated approach to pricing, but also ask for more information on customer reactions. This paper summarises recent developments in demand forecasting with regard to the prediction of demand in the airline industry. A classification by demand arrival, level, detruncation and behaviour is applied

Recent developments in demand forecasting for airline revenue management

Revenue management for airlines strives to maximise revenue as the sum of fares earned through customer bookings. Since the internet enables customers to make more informed choices and low-cost carriers introduced the concept of restriction-free fares, forecasting for airline revenue management has faced new challenges. In addition, advances in dynamic pricing allow for a more sophisticated approach to pricing, but also ask for more information on customer reactions. This paper summarises recent developments in demand forecasting with regard to the prediction of demand in the airline industry. A classification by demand arrival, level, detruncation and behaviour is applied.airline revenue management; demand models; demand forecasting; revenue management; simulation; airlines.