On the relevance of earnings components in valuation and forecasting

Pre-print also submitted to SSRN Archive. The final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/ 10.1007/s11156-013-0347-yThis paper articulates the links between relevance of an earnings component in forecasting (abnormal) earnings and its relevance in valuation in a nonlinear framework. The analysis shows that forecasting relevance does not imply valuation relevance even though valuation irrelevance is implied by forecasting irrelevance. Firstly, I consider an accounting information system where earnings components "add up" to a fully informative earnings number. Secondly, I analyze two accounting systems where a "core" earnings component is the relevant earnings construct for valuation and the second earnings component is irrelevant but may be predictable and relevant in forecasting other accounting items. I find that dividend displacement effect on earnings and the dynamics of individual earnings components are critical in this analysis

The mitochondrial genome sequence of the ciliate Paramecium caudatum reveals a shift in nucleotide composition and codon usage within the genus Paramecium

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Despite the fact that the organization of the ciliate mitochondrial genome is exceptional, only few ciliate mitochondrial genomes have been sequenced until today. All ciliate mitochondrial genomes are linear. They are 40 kb to 47 kb long and contain some 50 tightly packed genes without introns. Earlier studies documented that the mitochondrial guanine + cytosine contents are very different between <it>Paramecium tetraurelia </it>and all studied <it>Tetrahymena </it>species. This raises the question of whether the high mitochondrial G+C content observed in <it>P. tetraurelia </it>is a characteristic property of <it>Paramecium </it>mtDNA, or whether it is an exception of the ciliate mitochondrial genomes known so far. To test this question, we determined the mitochondrial genome sequence of <it>Paramecium caudatum </it>and compared the gene content and sequence properties to the closely related <it>P. tetraurelia</it>.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The guanine + cytosine content of the <it>P. caudatum </it>mitochondrial genome was significantly lower than that of <it>P. tetraurelia </it>(22.4% vs. 41.2%). This difference in the mitochondrial nucleotide composition was accompanied by significantly different codon usage patterns in both species, i.e. within <it>P. caudatum </it>clearly A/T ending codons dominated, whereas for <it>P. tetraurelia </it>the synonymous codons were more balanced with a higher number of G/C ending codons. Further analyses indicated that the nucleotide composition of most members of the genus <it>Paramecium </it>resembles that of <it>P. caudatum </it>and that the shift observed in <it>P. tetraurelia </it>is restricted to the <it>P. aurelia </it>species complex.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Surprisingly, the codon usage bias in the <it>P. caudatum </it>mitochondrial genome, exemplified by the effective number of codons, is more similar to the distantly related <it>T. pyriformis </it>and other single-celled eukaryotes such as <it>Chlamydomonas</it>, than to the closely related <it>P. tetraurelia</it>. These differences in base composition and codon usage bias were, however, not reflected in the amino acid composition. Most probably, the observed picture is best explained by a hitherto unknown (neutral or adaptive) mechanism that increased the guanine + cytosine content in <it>P. tetraurelia </it>mtDNA on the one hand, and strong purifying selection on the ancestral amino acid composition on the other hand. These contradicting forces are counterbalanced by a considerably altered codon usage pattern.</p

Formation of Supermassive Black Holes

Evidence shows that massive black holes reside in most local galaxies. Studies have also established a number of relations between the MBH mass and properties of the host galaxy such as bulge mass and velocity dispersion. These results suggest that central MBHs, while much less massive than the host (~ 0.1%), are linked to the evolution of galactic structure. In hierarchical cosmologies, a single big galaxy today can be traced back to the stage when it was split up in hundreds of smaller components. Did MBH seeds form with the same efficiency in small proto-galaxies, or did their formation had to await the buildup of substantial galaxies with deeper potential wells? I briefly review here some of the physical processes that are conducive to the evolution of the massive black hole population. I will discuss black hole formation processes for `seed' black holes that are likely to place at early cosmic epochs, and possible observational tests of these scenarios.Comment: To appear in The Astronomy and Astrophysics Review. The final publication is available at http://www.springerlink.co

HIV Drug Resistance (HIVDR) in Antiretroviral Therapy-Naïve Patients in Tanzania Not Eligible for WHO Threshold HIVDR Survey Is Dramatically High

The World Health Organization (WHO) has recommended guidelines for a HIV drug resistance (HIVDR) survey for resource-limited countries. Eligibility criteria for patients include age below 25 years in order to focus on the prevalence of transmitted HIVDR (tHIVDR) in newly-infected individuals. Most of the participating sites across Africa have so far reported tHIVDR prevalences of below 5%. In this study we investigated whether the rate of HIVDR in patients <25 years is representative for HIVDR in the rest of the therapy-naïve population. HIVDR was determined in 88 sequentially enrolled ART-naïve patients from Mwanza, Tanzania (mean age 35.4 years). Twenty patients were aged <25 years and 68 patients were aged 25-63 years. The frequency of HIVDR in the study population was 14.8% (95%; CI 0.072-0.223) and independent of NVP-resistance induced by prevention of mother-to-child transmission programs. Patients >25 years had a significantly higher HIVDR frequency than younger patients (19.1%; 95% CI 0.095-0.28) versus 0%, P = 0.0344). In 2 out of the 16 patients with HIVDR we found traces of antiretrovirals (ARVs) in plasma. ART-naïve patients aged over 25 years exhibited significantly higher HIVDR than younger patients. Detection of traces of ARVs in individuals with HIVDR suggests that besides transmission, undisclosed misuse of ARVs may constitute a significant factor in the generation of the observed high HIVDR rate. The current WHO tHIVDR survey that is solely focused on the transmission of HIVDR and that excludes patients over 25 years of age may therefore result in substantial underestimation of the prevalence of HIVDR in the therapy-naïve population. Similar studies should be performed also in other areas to test whether the so far reported optimistic picture of low HIVDR prevalence in young individuals is really representative for the rest of the ART-naïve HIV-infected population

High-levels of acquired drug resistance in adult patients failing first-line antiretroviral therapy in a rural HIV treatment programme in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the frequency and patterns of acquired antiretroviral drug resistance in a rural primary health care programme in South Africa. DESIGN: Cross-sectional study nested within HIV treatment programme. METHODS: Adult (≥ 18 years) HIV-infected individuals initially treated with a first-line stavudine- or zidovudine-based antiretroviral therapy (ART) regimen and with evidence of virological failure (one viral load >1000 copies/ml) were enrolled from 17 rural primary health care clinics. Genotypic resistance testing was performed using the in-house SATuRN/Life Technologies system. Sequences were analysed and genotypic susceptibility scores (GSS) for standard second-line regimens were calculated using the Stanford HIVDB 6.0.5 algorithms. RESULTS: A total of 222 adults were successfully genotyped for HIV drug resistance between December 2010 and March 2012. The most common regimens at time of genotype were stavudine, lamivudine and efavirenz (51%); and stavudine, lamivudine and nevirapine (24%). Median duration of ART was 42 months (interquartile range (IQR) 32-53) and median duration of antiretroviral failure was 27 months (IQR 17-40). One hundred and ninety one (86%) had at least one drug resistance mutation. For 34 individuals (15%), the GSS for the standard second-line regimen was <2, suggesting a significantly compromised regimen. In univariate analysis, individuals with a prior nucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitor (NRTI) substitution were more likely to have a GSS <2 than those on the same NRTIs throughout (odds ratio (OR) 5.70, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.60-12.49). CONCLUSIONS: There are high levels of drug resistance in adults with failure of first-line antiretroviral therapy in this rural primary health care programme. Standard second-line regimens could potentially have had reduced efficacy in about one in seven adults involved

f(R) theories

Over the past decade, f(R) theories have been extensively studied as one of the simplest modifications to General Relativity. In this article we review various applications of f(R) theories to cosmology and gravity - such as inflation, dark energy, local gravity constraints, cosmological perturbations, and spherically symmetric solutions in weak and strong gravitational backgrounds. We present a number of ways to distinguish those theories from General Relativity observationally and experimentally. We also discuss the extension to other modified gravity theories such as Brans-Dicke theory and Gauss-Bonnet gravity, and address models that can satisfy both cosmological and local gravity constraints.Comment: 156 pages, 14 figures, Invited review article in Living Reviews in Relativity, Published version, Comments are welcom

X-ray emission from the Sombrero galaxy: discrete sources

We present a study of discrete X-ray sources in and around the bulge-dominated, massive Sa galaxy, Sombrero (M104), based on new and archival Chandra observations with a total exposure of ~200 ks. With a detection limit of L_X = 1E37 erg/s and a field of view covering a galactocentric radius of ~30 kpc (11.5 arcminute), 383 sources are detected. Cross-correlation with Spitler et al.'s catalogue of Sombrero globular clusters (GCs) identified from HST/ACS observations reveals 41 X-rays sources in GCs, presumably low-mass X-ray binaries (LMXBs). We quantify the differential luminosity functions (LFs) for both the detected GC and field LMXBs, whose power-low indices (~1.1 for the GC-LF and ~1.6 for field-LF) are consistent with previous studies for elliptical galaxies. With precise sky positions of the GCs without a detected X-ray source, we further quantify, through a fluctuation analysis, the GC LF at fainter luminosities down to 1E35 erg/s. The derived index rules out a faint-end slope flatter than 1.1 at a 2 sigma significance, contrary to recent findings in several elliptical galaxies and the bulge of M31. On the other hand, the 2-6 keV unresolved emission places a tight constraint on the field LF, implying a flattened index of ~1.0 below 1E37 erg/s. We also detect 101 sources in the halo of Sombrero. The presence of these sources cannot be interpreted as galactic LMXBs whose spatial distribution empirically follows the starlight. Their number is also higher than the expected number of cosmic AGNs (52+/-11 [1 sigma]) whose surface density is constrained by deep X-ray surveys. We suggest that either the cosmic X-ray background is unusually high in the direction of Sombrero, or a distinct population of X-ray sources is present in the halo of Sombrero.Comment: 11 figures, 5 tables, ApJ in pres

Credit Information Sharing and Loan Default in Developing Countries: The Moderating Effect of Banking Market Concentration and National Governance Quality

Departing from the existing literature, which associates credit information sharing with improved access to credit in advanced economies, we examine whether credit information sharing can also reduce loan default rate for banks domiciled in developing countries. Using a large dataset covering 879 unique banks from 87 developing countries from every continent, over a nine-year period (i.e., over 6,300 observations), we uncover three new findings. First, we find that credit information sharing reduces loan default rate. Second, we show that the relationship between credit information sharing and loan default rate is conditional on banking market concentration. Third, our findings suggest that governance quality at the country level does not have a strong moderating role on the effect of credit information sharing on loan default rate

Gender Differences in Immune Reconstitution: A Multicentric Cohort Analysis in Sub-Saharan Africa

In sub-Saharan Africa, men living with HIV often start ART at more advanced stages of disease and have higher early mortality than women. We investigated gender difference in long-term immune reconstitution