How does the onset of physical disability or dementia in older adults affect economic wellbeing and co-payments for health care? The impact of gender

Background: Existing studies have illustrated how the onset of physical disability or dementia negatively impacts economic wellbeing and increases out of pocket costs. However, little is known about this relationship in older individuals. Consequently, this study aimed to identify how the onset of physical disability or dementia in older adults affects economic wellbeing and out of pocket costs, and to explore the impact of gender in the context of Australia. Methods: The data was collected from a large, randomized clinical study, ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE). Two generalized linear models (with and without interaction effects) of total out of pocket costs for those who did and did not develop physical disability or dementia were generated, with adjustment for sociodemographic characteristics at baseline. Results: We included 8,568 older Australian individuals with a mean age of 74.8 years and 53.2% being females. After adjustment for the baseline sociodemographic characteristics, the onset of physical disability did statistically significantly raise out of pocket costs (cost ratio=1.25) and costs among females were 13.1% higher than males. Conclusions: This study highlights that classifying different types of health conditions to identify the drivers of out of pocket costs and to explore the gender differences in a long-term follow-up is of importance to examine the fnancial impact on the older population. These negative financial impacts and gender disparities of physical disability and dementia must be considered by policymakers.Yanan Hu, Prudence R. Carr, Danny Liew, Jonathan Broder, Emily J. Callander and John J. McNei

The Similarity Hypothesis in General Relativity

Self-similar models are important in general relativity and other fundamental theories. In this paper we shall discuss the ``similarity hypothesis'', which asserts that under a variety of physical circumstances solutions of these theories will naturally evolve to a self-similar form. We will find there is good evidence for this in the context of both spatially homogenous and inhomogeneous cosmological models, although in some cases the self-similar model is only an intermediate attractor. There are also a wide variety of situations, including critical pheneomena, in which spherically symmetric models tend towards self-similarity. However, this does not happen in all cases and it is it is important to understand the prerequisites for the conjecture.Comment: to be submitted to Gen. Rel. Gra

A multistate model of health transitions in older people: a secondary analysis of ASPREE clinical trial data

Background: Understanding the nature of transitions from a healthy state to chronic diseases and death is important for planning health-care system requirements and interventions. We aimed to quantify the trajectories of disease and disability in a population of healthy older people. Methods: We conducted a secondary analysis of data from the ASPREE trial, which was done in 50 sites in Australia and the USA and recruited community-dwelling, healthy individuals who were aged 70 years or older (≥65 years for Black and Hispanic people in the USA) between March 10, 2010, and Dec 24, 2014. Participants were followed up with annual face-to-face visits, biennial assessments of cognitive function, and biannual visits for physical function until death or June 12, 2017, whichever occurred first. We used multistate models to examine transitions from a healthy state to first intermediate disease events (ie, cancer events, stroke events, cardiac events, and physical disability or dementia) and, ultimately, to death. We also examined the effects of age and sex on transition rates using Cox proportional hazards regression models. Findings: 19 114 participants with a median age of 74·0 years (IQR 71·6–77·7) were included in our analyses. During a median follow-up of 4·7 years (IQR 3·6–5·7), 1933 (10·1%) of 19 114 participants had an incident cancer event, 487 (2·5%) had an incident cardiac event, 398 (2·1%) had an incident stroke event, 924 (4·8%) developed persistent physical disability or dementia, and 1052 (5·5%) died. 15 398 (80·6%) individuals did not have any of these events during follow-up. The highest proportion of deaths followed incident cancer (501 [47·6%] of 1052) and 129 (12·3%) participants transitioned from disability or dementia to death. Among 12 postulated transitions, transitions from the intermediate states to death had much higher rates than transitions from a healthy state to death. The progression rates to death were 158 events per 1000 person-years (95% CI 144–172) from cancer, 112 events per 1000 person-years (86–145) from stroke, 88 events per 1000 person-years (68–111) from cardiac disease, 69 events per 1000 person-years (58–82) from disability or dementia, and four events per 1000 person-years (4–5) from a healthy state. Age was significantly associated with an accelerated rate for most transitions. Male sex (vs female sex) was significantly associated with an accelerate rate for five of 12 transitions. Interpretation: We describe a multistate model in a healthy older population in whom the most common transition was from a healthy state to cancer. Our findings provide unique insights into the frequency of events, their transition rates, and the impact of age and sex. These results have implications for preventive health interventions and planning for appropriate levels of residential care in healthy ageing populations. Funding: The National Institutes of Health

Tryptophan-like and humic-like fluorophores are extracellular in groundwater: implications as real-time faecal indicators

Fluorescent natural organic matter at tryptophan-like (TLF) and humic-like fluorescence (HLF) peaks is associated with the presence and enumeration of faecal indicator bacteria in groundwater. We hypothesise, however, that it is predominantly extracellular material that fluoresces at these wavelengths, not bacterial cells. We quantified total (unfiltered) and extracellular (filtered at < 0.22 µm) TLF and HLF in 140 groundwater sources across a range of urban population densities in Kenya, Malawi, Senegal, and Uganda. Where changes in fluorescence occurred following filtration they were correlated with potential controlling variables. A significant reduction in TLF following filtration (ΔTLF) was observed across the entire dataset, although the majority of the signal remained and thus considered extracellular (median 96.9%). ΔTLF was only significant in more urbanised study areas where TLF was greatest. Beneath Dakar, Senegal, ΔTLF was significantly correlated to total bacterial cells (ρs 0.51). No significant change in HLF following filtration across all data indicates these fluorophores are extracellular. Our results suggest that TLF and HLF are more mobile than faecal indicator bacteria and larger pathogens in groundwater, as the predominantly extracellular fluorophores are less prone to straining. Consequently, TLF/HLF are more precautionary indicators of microbial risks than faecal indicator bacteria in groundwater-derived drinking water

Associations of body size with all-cause and cause-specific mortality in healthy older adults

In the general population, body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference are recognized risk factors for several chronic diseases and all-cause mortality. However, whether these associations are the same for older adults is less clear. The association of baseline BMI and waist circumference with all-cause and cause-specific mortality was investigated in 18,209 Australian and US participants (mean age: 75.1 ± 4.5 years) from the ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE) study, followed up for a median of 6.9 years (IQR: 5.7, 8.0). There were substantially different relationships observed in men and women. In men, the lowest risk of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality was observed with a BMI in the range 25.0–29.9 kg/m2 [HR25-29.9 vs 21–24.9 kg/m2: 0.85; 95% CI, 0.73–1.00] while the highest risk was in those who were underweight [HRBMI <21 kg/m2 vs BMI 21–24.9 kg/m2: 1.82; 95% CI 1.30–2.55], leading to a clear U-shaped relationship. In women, all-cause mortality was highest in those with the lowest BMI leading to a J-shaped relationship (HRBMI <21 kg/m2 vs BMI 21–24.9 kg/m2: 1.64; 95% CI 1.26–2.14). Waist circumference showed a weaker relationship with all-cause mortality in both men and women. There was little evidence of a relationship between either index of body size and subsequent cancer mortality in men or women, while non-cardiovascular non-cancer mortality was higher in underweight participants. For older men, being overweight was found to be associated with a lower risk of all-cause mortality, while among both men and women, a BMI in the underweight category was associated with a higher risk. Waist circumference alone had little association with all-cause or cause-specific mortality risk. Trial registration ASPREE https://ClinicalTrials.gov number NCT01038583.Prudence R. Carr, Katherine L. Webb, Johannes T. Neumann, Le T. P. Thao, Lawrence J. Beilin, Michael E. Ernst, Bernadette Fitzgibbon, Danijela Gasevic, Mark R. Nelson, Anne B. Newman, Suzanne G. Orchard, Alice Owen, Christopher M. Reid, Nigel P. Stocks, Andrew M. Tonkin, Robyn L. Woods, John J. McNei

Search for the glueball candidates f0(1500) and fJ(1710) in gamma gamma collisions

Data taken with the ALEPH detector at LEP1 have been used to search for gamma gamma production of the glueball candidates f0(1500) and fJ(1710) via their decay to pi+pi-. No signal is observed and upper limits to the product of gamma gamma width and pi+pi- branching ratio of the f0(1500) and the fJ(1710) have been measured to be Gamma_(gamma gamma -> f0(1500)). BR(f0(1500)->pi+pi-) < 0.31 keV and Gamma_(gamma gamma -> fJ(1710)). BR(fJ(1710)->pi+pi-) < 0.55 keV at 95% confidence level.Comment: 10 pages, 3 figure

Search for supersymmetry with a dominant R-parity violating LQDbar couplings in e+e- collisions at centre-of-mass energies of 130GeV to 172 GeV

A search for pair-production of supersymmetric particles under the assumption that R-parity is violated via a dominant LQDbar coupling has been performed using the data collected by ALEPH at centre-of-mass energies of 130-172 GeV. The observed candidate events in the data are in agreement with the Standard Model expectation. This result is translated into lower limits on the masses of charginos, neutralinos, sleptons, sneutrinos and squarks. For instance, for m_0=500 GeV/c^2 and tan(beta)=sqrt(2) charginos with masses smaller than 81 GeV/c^2 and neutralinos with masses smaller than 29 GeV/c^2 are excluded at the 95% confidence level for any generation structure of the LQDbar coupling.Comment: 32 pages, 30 figure

A First Search for coincident Gravitational Waves and High Energy Neutrinos using LIGO, Virgo and ANTARES data from 2007

We present the results of the first search for gravitational wave bursts associated with high energy neutrinos. Together, these messengers could reveal new, hidden sources that are not observed by conventional photon astronomy, particularly at high energy. Our search uses neutrinos detected by the underwater neutrino telescope ANTARES in its 5 line configuration during the period January - September 2007, which coincided with the fifth and first science runs of LIGO and Virgo, respectively. The LIGO-Virgo data were analysed for candidate gravitational-wave signals coincident in time and direction with the neutrino events. No significant coincident events were observed. We place limits on the density of joint high energy neutrino - gravitational wave emission events in the local universe, and compare them with densities of merger and core-collapse events.Comment: 19 pages, 8 figures, science summary page at http://www.ligo.org/science/Publication-S5LV_ANTARES/index.php. Public access area to figures, tables at https://dcc.ligo.org/cgi-bin/DocDB/ShowDocument?docid=p120000