Monitoring Covid-19 contagion growth in Europe. CEPS Working Document No 2020/03, March 2020

We present an econometric model which can be employed to monitor the evolution of the COVID-19 contagion curve. The model is a Poisson autoregression of the daily new observed cases, and can dynamically show the evolution of contagion in different time periods and locations, allowing for the comparative evaluation of policy approaches. We present timely results for nine European countries currently hit by the virus. From the findings, we draw four main conclusions. First, countries experiencing an explosive process (currently France, Italy and Spain), combined with high persistence of contagion shocks (observed in most countries under investigation), require swift policy measures such as quarantine, diffuse testing and even complete lockdown. Second, in countries with high persistence but lower contagion growth (currently Germany) careful monitoring should be coupled with at least “mild” restrictions such as physical distancing or isolation of specific areas. Third, in some countries, such as Norway and Denmark, where trends seem to be relatively under control and depend on daily contingencies, with low persistence, the approach to restrictive measures should be more cautious since there is a risk that social costs outweigh the benefits. Fourth, countries with a limited set of preventive actions in place (such as the Netherlands, Switzerl

Identifying the impact of the circular economy on the Fast-Moving Consumer Goods Industry Opportunities and challenges for businesses, workers and consumers – mobile phones as an example STUDY

Mobile phones, particularly smartphones, have undergone a period of rapid growth to become virtually indispensable to today's lifestyle. Yet their production, use and disposal can entail a significant environmental burden. This study looks at the opportunities and challenges that arise from implementing circular economy approaches in the mobile phone value chain. A review of the value chain and different circular approaches is complemented by a scenario analysis that aims to quantify the potential impacts of certain circular approaches such as recycling, refurbishment and lifetime extension. The study finds that there is a large untapped potential for recovering materials from both the annual flow of new mobile phones sold in Europe once they reach the end of their life and the accumulated stock of unused, so-called hibernating devices in EU households. Achieving high recycling rates for these devices can offer opportunities to reduce EU dependence on imported materials and make secondary raw materials available on the EU market. As such, policy action would be required to close the collection gap for mobile phone devices. Implementing circular approaches in the mobile phone value chain can furthermore lead to job creation in the refurbishment sector. Extending the lifetime of mobile phones can also provide CO2 mitigation benefits, particularly from displacing the production of new devices

Reflections on the EU objectives in addressing aggressive tax planning and harmful tax practices Final Report. CEPS Report November 2019

This Report analyses the EU’s instruments to tackle aggressive tax planning and harmful tax practices. Based on desk research, interviews with stakeholders and expert assessments, it considers the coherence, relevance, and added value of the EU’s approach. The instruments under analysis are found to be internally coherent and consistent with other EU policies and with the international tax agenda, in particular with the OECD/G20 BEPS framework. The Report also confirms the continued relevance of most of the original needs and problems addressed by the EU’s initiatives in the field of tax avoidance. There is also EU added value in having common EU instruments in the field to bolster coordination and harmonise the implementation of tax measures. One cross-cutting issue identified is the impact of digitalisation on corporate taxation. Against this background, the Report outlines potential improvements to the EU tax strategy such as: making EU tax systems fit for the digital era; leading the international debate on tax avoidance; enabling capacity building in Member States and developing countries; strengthening tax good governance in third countries; ensuring a consistent approach at home and abroad; achieving a level playing field for all companies; and increasing tax certainty and legal certainty

Evaluation study supporting the interim evaluation of the ISA² programme. CEPS Project Report. June 2019

In compliance with Article 13 of Decision (EU) 2015/2240 establishing the ISA2 programme, the interim evaluation assessed the relevance, effectiveness, efficiency, EU added value, coherence, utility and sustainability of ISA2. Based on primary data collected from 129 consulted stakeholders, extensive desk research, and expert assessments, the evaluation confirms that ISA2 performs well in all the evaluation criteria. The objectives pursued by ISA2 are still pertinent in relation to the evolving needs and problems in the field of interoperability of digital public services, and the results achieved so far are aligned with the objectives of the programme. As ISA2 progresses and solutions are further developed, the expected results should be attained, given that the implementation of the programme is continuing as planned. There are substantial synergies and limited overlaps among ISA2 actions. Moreover, particularly strong synergies exist with the Connecting Europe Facility. ISA2 contributed to enhancing cross-border interoperability and users generally tend to be satisfied with the solutions provided. Overall, ISA2 plays a crucial role in enhancing the interoperability landscape in the European Union. In light of these findings, the evaluation outlines some measures to improve the performance of ISA2 and future editions of the programme

Preliminary data on the exploitation of marine malacofauna by the Iberomaurusian groups of the Abri Alain rock shelter (Oran, Algeria)

Research on the Iberomaurusian has significantly increased in recent years, resulting in a better overall understanding of this period. However, studies focusing on human-animal relationships are still rare, especially for the exploitation of marine resources, which is paradoxical as most of the sites are located in coastal areas. In this work, we re-evaluate the marine malacofauna from the 1930s excavation of the Abri Alain rock shelter (Oran, Algeria), currently located five kilometers from the Mediterranean shore. The results obtained record the exploitation of marine resources by recent Iberomaurusian populations (~15 ka cal. BP). This malacofauna was used for subsistence but also as ornamentation. The consumed molluscs (Patellidae, Mytilidae, Trochidae) are characteristic of the intertidal zone of rocky shores. These species were probably gathered during low tides. Shells used as ornamentation (Dentaliidae, Glycymerididae, Cardiidae, Turritellidae) were originated from secondary locations

Caractérisation de l'occupation des sites de la région de Témara (Maroc) au Pléistocène supérieur et nouvelles données sur la subsistance des hommes du Paléolithique moyen d'Afrique du Nord (exemples des approches taphonomiques et archéozoologiques menées sur les faunes d'El Harhoura 2 et d'El Mnasra)

Caractérisation de l occupation des sites de la région de Témara (Maroc) au Pléistocène supérieur et nouvelles données sur la subsistance des Hommes du Paléolithique moyen d Afrique du Nord : exemples des approches taphonomiques et archéozoologiques menées sur les faunes d El Harhoura 2 et d El Mnasra Ce travail en taphonomie et en archéozoologie se concentre sur les faunes pléistocènes de la région de Témara où deux sites fouillés récemment, El Harhoura 2 et El Mnasra, ont retenu notre attention. Il porte principalement sur l Atérien (Paléolithique moyen/MSA), faciès culturel du Pléistocène supérieur propre à l Afrique du Nord, dont l aspect comportemental - en particulier les pratiques cynégétiques, la fonction des sites, l organisation spatiale du territoire - est peu documenté. Le croisement des résultats obtenus sur les restes osseux de grands Mammifères avec les rares données régionales a permis de proposer un modèle hypothétique d occupation des sites. Les occupations pérennes de courte durée au cours desquelles les Hommes ont effectué de multiples activités sont datées du stade 5. L exemple d El Mnasra montre que les Hommes ont consommé des Ongulés de toutes tailles (Gazelles, Suidés, Alcelaphinés, Équidés, grands Bovinés ) et que les différentes étapes de la chaîne opératoire du traitement des carcasses ont été effectuées in situ. Outre la grande faune, leur régime alimentaire était composé également de Tortues et de Mollusques marins. Comme l indique l exemple d El Harhoura 2, aux stades isotopiques 4 et 3, en concomitance avec une dégradation climatique et une baisse du niveau marin, les occupants principaux des cavités étaient les Carnivores qui ont consommé principalement des Gazelles. Il semble que les Hommes n ont effectué que de brefs passages dans les grottes. À l Ibéromaurusien (Paléolithique supérieur final/LSA), le seul exemple d El Harhoura 2 témoigne que, malgré le changement culturel observé au sein de l industrie lithique et l utilisation de la cavité à des fins sépulcrales, les accumulateurs majoritaires des faunes restent les Carnivores alors que les proportions d Ongulés de tailles supérieures aux Gazelles augmentent. Comparés à plus large échelle, ces résultats mettent en exergue des similitudes dans les stratégies de subsistance qui s ajoutent à d autres convergences telles que l utilisation de pigments, de Nassarius sp. Au stade isotopique 5, le milieu littoral est exploité en association avec la consommation d Ongulés d assez grande taille et de Tortues aussi bien en Afrique du Nord qu en Afrique du Sud par les Hommes Anatomiquement Modernes (HAM). La diversification des ressources n est pas le seul fait des HAM, puisque les Néandertaliens de la péninsule ibérique et d Italie ont également exploité le milieu littoral. Ainsi, cette période semble cruciale pour l appréhension des dynamiques évolutives et comportementales des Hommes du MSA/HAM, non seulement en Afrique du Nord, mais également dans d autres régions.The Upper Pleistocene occupation of the Témara Region (Morocco) and new data concerning Middle Palaeolithic subsistence behaviour in North Africa: A taphonomic and zooarchaeological approach to the fauna from El Harhoura 2 and El Mnasra This work presents a taphonomic and zooarchaeological analysis focused on Pleistocene fauna from the Temara region of Morroco with particular emphasis on the recently excavated sites of El Harhoura 2 and El Mnasra. Particular attention is paid to the Aterian (Middle Palaeolithic, MSA), a techno-complex specific to Upper Pleistocene North Africa and whose behavioural aspects remain poorly documented. This is especially the case for hunting practices, site function and the spatial organization of the territory. This work proposes an interpretative model based on large mammal faunas considered in conjunction with the little regional information that is currently available. The results suggest short occupations involving multiple activities during MIS 5. The example of El Mnasra indicates that Aterian groups consumed ungulates of various sizes (Gazelles, Equidae, Suidae, Bovinae, etc.) with the entire chaîne opératoire related to the butchery of carcasses carried out on-site. In addition to large game, these groups also integrated tortoise and shellfish in their diet. The example of El Harhoura 2 demonstrates carnivores who preyed mainly on gazelle to be the site s main occupants during OIS 3-4, a period which can be correlated with more rigorous climatic conditions and lower sea levels. Aterian groups probably occupied the rockshelter only during brief stopovers. Despite culture changes evident in the lithic industry and the site being used as a burial ground during the ensuing Iberomaurusian period (Late Upper Palaeolithic/LSA), the accumulators of the fauna at El Harhoura 2 remain carnivores and the proportion of species larger than gazelle increases. On a larger scale, these results highlight similarities in subsistence strategies that can be added to other convergent behavioural features such as the use of pigments and the presence of Nassarius sp. beads. During OIS 5, anatomically modern humans (AMH) exploited coastal areas as well as fairly large ungulates and tortoise in both North and South Africa. However, this diversification of resources is not unique to AMH as Neanderthals are known to have exploited coastal environments in the Iberian Peninsula and Italy. This period is therefore crucial for understanding Middle Palaeolithic/ MSA evolutionary dynamics and related behavioural traits not only in North Africa, but also in a broader geographical perspective.BORDEAUX1-Bib.electronique (335229901) / SudocSudocFranceF

Subsistance en zone côtière durant le Middle Stone Age en Afrique du Nord : étude préliminaire de l’unité stratigraphique 8 de la grotte d’El Mnasra (Témara, Maroc)

L’occupation Middle Stone Age de l’unité stratigraphique 8 de la grotte d’El Mnasra, située sur la côte atlantique marocaine, a livré des coquilles de mollusques marins, associées à des restes de faune terrestre, des industries lithiques et des pigments. Les Hommes anatomiquement modernes qui ont occupé cette cavité ont exploité des ressources diversifiées, marines et terrestres. Au sein des ressources côtières disponibles, ils semblent avoir préféré les mollusques de côte rocheuse (en particulier les Patellidae et les Mytilidae, mollusques qui ne s’enfouissent pas) qu’ils ont pu collecter lors des marées basses dans un environnement littoral proche de la cavité. Les ressources animales en plus d’avoir été exploitées à des fins alimentaires ont été utilisées à des fins symboliques (ornements en coquilles de Nassariidae) ou techniques (industrie osseuse)

Similarities and differences in the lifestyles of populations using mode 3 technology in North Africa and the south of the Iberian Peninsula

In the geohistorical region of the Strait of Gibraltar, which includes the south of the Iberian Peninsula and North Africa, important research has been carried out in recent years. This research has allowed us to document the presence of human groups as early as the Middle Pleistocene. Classical anthropology refers to these groups using various terms Homo Neanderthalensis in the south of Europe and Homo sapiens sapiens in North Africa). The current records exhibit important similarities concerning lithic technology (the so-called ‘Mode 3’, ‘Mousterian’ or ‘Middle Stone Age’), and the exploitation of marine resources. From an anthropological or cultural perspective, both groups were hunter-gatherers with similar lifestyles. Bearing these similarities in mind, three hypotheses are here presented

Funerary practices or food delicatessen? Human remains with anthropic marks from the Western Mediterranean Mesolithic

The identification of unarticulated human remains with anthropic marks in archaeological contexts normally involves solving two issues: a general one associated with the analysis and description of the anthropic manipulation marks, and another with regard to the interpretation of their purpose. In this paper we present new evidence of anthropophagic behaviour amongst hunter-gatherer groups of the Mediterranean Mesolithic. A total of 30 human remains with anthropic manipulation marks have been found in the Mesolithic layers of Coves de Santa Maira (Castell de Castells, Alicante, Spain), dating from ca. 10.2-9 cal ky BP. We describe the different marks identified on both human and faunal remains at the site (lithic, tooth, percussion and fire marks on bone cortex). As well as describing these marks, and considering that both human and faunal remains at the site present similar depositional and taphonomic features, this paper also contextualizes them within the archaeological context and subsistence patterns described for Mesolithic groups in the region. We cannot entirely rule out the possibility that these practices may be the result of periodic food stress suffered by the human populations. These anthropophagic events at the site coincide with a cultural change at the regional Epipalaeolithic-Mesolithic transition

Limpet Shells from the Aterian Level 8 of El Harhoura 2 Cave (Témara, Morocco): Preservation State of Crossed-Foliated Layers

International audienceThe exploitation of mollusks by the first anatomically modern humans is a central question for archaeologists. This paper focuses on level 8 (dated around * 100 ka BP) of El Har-houra 2 Cave, located along the coastline in the Rabat-Témara region (Morocco). The large quantity of Patella sp. shells found in this level highlights questions regarding their origin and preservation. This study presents an estimation of the preservation status of these shells. We focus here on the diagenetic evolution of both the microstructural patterns and organic components of crossed-foliated shell layers, in order to assess the viability of further investigations based on shell layer minor elements, isotopic or biochemical compositions. The results show that the shells seem to be well conserved, with microstructural patterns preserved down to sub-micrometric scales, and that some organic components are still present in situ. But faint taphonomic degradations affecting both mineral and organic components are nonetheless evidenced, such as the disappearance of organic envelopes surrounding crossed-foliated lamellae, combined with a partial recrystallization of the lamellae. Our results provide a solid case-study of the early stages of the diagenetic evolution of crossed-foliated shell layers. Moreover, they highlight the fact that extreme caution must be taken before using fossil shells for palaeoenvironmental or geochronological reconstructions. Without thorough investigation, the alteration patterns illustrated here would easily have gone unnoticed. However, these degradations are liable to bias any proxy based on the elemental, isotopic or biochemical composition of the shells. This study also provides significant data concerning human subsistence behavior: the presence of notches and the good preservation state of limpet shells (no dissolution/recrystallization, no bioerosion and no abrasion/fragmentation aspects) would attest that limpets were gathered alive with tools by Middle Palaeolithic (Aterian) populations in North Africa for consumption