Finance, climate-change and radical uncertainty: Towards a precautionary approach to financial policy

Climate-related financial risks (CRFR) are now recognised by central banks and supervisors as material to their financial stability mandates. But while CRFR are considered to have some unique characteristics, the emerging policy framework for dealing with them has largely focused on market-based solutions that seek to reduce perceived information gaps that prevent the accurate pricing of CRFR. These include disclosure, transparency, scenario analysis and stress testing. We argue this approach will be limited in impact because CRFR are characterised by radical uncertainty and hence ‘efficient’ price discovery is not possible. In addition, this approach tends to bias financial policy towards concern around avoiding short-term market disruption at the expense of longer-term, potentially catastrophic and irreversible climate risks. Instead, an alternative ‘precautionary’ financial policy approach is proposed that offers an intellectual framework for legitimizing more ambitious financial policy interventions in the present to better deal with these long-term risks. This framework draws on two existing concepts — the ‘precautionary principle’ and modern macroprudential policy — and justifies the full integration of CRFR into financial policy, including prudential, macroprudential and monetary policy frameworks

Current Developments of Analytical Methodologies for Aflatoxins’ Determination in Food during the Last Decade (2013–2022), with a Particular Focus on Nuts and Nut Products

This review aims to provide a clear overview of the most important analytical development in aflatoxins analysis during the last decade (2013-2022) with a particular focus on nuts and nuts-related products. Aflatoxins (AFs), a group of mycotoxins produced mainly by certain strains of the genus Aspergillus fungi, are known to impose a serious threat to human health. Indeed, AFs are considered carcinogenic to humans, group 1, by the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC). Since these toxins can be found in different food commodities, food control organizations worldwide impose maximum levels of AFs for commodities affected by this threat. Thus, they represent a cumbersome issue in terms of quality control, analytical result reliability, and economical losses. It is, therefore, mandatory for food industries to perform analysis on potentially contaminated commodities before the trade. A full perspective of the whole analytical workflow, considering each crucial step during AFs investigation, namely sampling, sample preparation, separation, and detection, will be presented to the reader, focusing on the main challenges related to the topic. A discussion will be primarily held regarding sample preparation methodologies such as partitioning, solid phase extraction (SPE), and immunoaffinity (IA) related methods. This will be followed by an overview of the leading analytical techniques for the detection of aflatoxins, in particular liquid chromatography (LC) coupled to a fluorescence detector (FLD) and/or mass spectrometry (MS). Moreover, the focus on the analytical procedure will not be specific only to traditional methodologies, such as LC, but also to new direct approaches based on imaging and the ability to detect AFs, reducing the need for sample preparation and separative techniques

Determination of rapid Deccan eruptions across the Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary using paleomagnetic secular variation: 2. Constraints from analysis of eight new sections and synthesis for a 3500-m-thick composite section

International audienceThe present paper completes a restudy of the main lava pile in the Deccan flood basalt province (trap) of India. Chenet et al. (2008) reported results from the upper third, and this paper reports the lower two thirds of the 3500-m-thick composite section. The methods employed are the same, i.e., combined use of petrology, volcanology, chemostratigraphy, morphology, K-Ar absolute dating, study of sedimentary alteration horizons, and as the main correlation tool, analysis of detailed paleomagnetic remanence directions. The thickness and volume of the flood basalt province studied in this way are therefore tripled. A total of 169 sites from eight new sections are reported in this paper. Together with the results of Chenet et al. (2008), these data represent in total 70% of the 3500-m combined section of the main Deccan traps province. This lava pile was erupted in some 30 major eruptive periods or single eruptive events (SEE), each with volumes ranging from 1000 to 20,000 km 3 and 41 individual lava units with a typical volume of 1300 km 3. Paleomagnetic analysis shows that some SEEs with thicknesses attaining 200 m were emplaced over distances in excess of 100 km (both likely underestimates, due to outcrop conditions) and up to 800 km. The total time of emission of all combined SEEs could have been (much) less than 10 ka, with most of the time recorded in a very small number of intervening alteration levels marking periods of volcanic quiescence (so-called ''big red boles''). The number of boles, thickness of the pulses, and morphology of the traps suggest that eruptive fluxes and volumes were larger in the older formations and slowed down with more and longer quiescence periods in the end. On the basis of geochronologic results published by Chenet et al. (2007) and paleontological results from Keller et al. (2008), we propose that volcanism occurred in three rather short, discrete phases or megapulses, an early one at $67.5 ± 1 Ma near the C30r/C30n transition and the two largest around 65 ± 1 Ma, one entirely within C29r just before the K-T boundary, the other shortly afterward spanning the C29r/C29n reversal. We next estimate sulfur dioxide (likely a major agent of environmental stress) amounts and fluxes released by SEEs: they would have ranged from 5 to 100 Gt and 0.1 to 1 Gt/a, respectively, over durations possibly as short as 100 years for each SEE. The chemical input of the Chicxulub impact would have been on the same order as that of a very large single pulse. The impact, therefore, appears as important but incremental, neither the sole nor main cause of the Cretaceous-Tertiary mass extinctions

Drinking in transition: trends in alcohol consumption in Russia 1994-2004

BACKGROUND: Heavy alcohol consumption is widespread in Russia, but studying changes in drinking during the transition from Communism has been hampered previously by the lack of frequent data. This paper uses 1-2 yearly panel data, comparing consumption trends with the rapid concurrent changes in economic variables (notably around the "Rouble crisis", shortly preceding the 1998 survey round), and mortality. METHODS: Data were from 9 rounds (1994-2004) of the 38-centre Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey. Respondents aged over 18 were included (>7,000 per round). Trends were measured in alcohol frequency, quantity per occasion (by beverage type) and 2 measures of potentially hazardous consumption: (i) frequent, heavy spirit drinking (≥80 g per occasion of vodka or samogon and >weekly) (ii) consuming samogon (cheap home-distilled spirit). Trends in consumption, mean household income and national mortality rates (in the same and subsequent 2 years) were compared. Finally, in a subsample of individual male respondents present in both the 1996 and 1998 rounds (before and after the financial crash), determinants of changes in harmful consumption were studied using logistic regression. RESULTS: Frequent, heavy spirit drinking (>80 g each time, ≥weekly) was widespread amongst men (12-17%) throughout, especially in the middle aged and less educated; with the exception of a significant, temporary drop to 10% in 1998. From 1996-2000, samogon drinking more than doubled, from 6% to 16% of males; despite a decline, levels were significantly higher in 2004 than 1996 in both sexes. Amongst women, frequent heavy spirit drinking rose non-significantly to more than 1% during the study. Heavy frequent male drinking and mortality in the same year were correlated in lower educated males, but not in women. Individual logistic regression in a male subsample showed that between 1996 and1998, those who lost their employment were more likely to cease frequent, heavy drinking; however, men who commenced drinking samogon in 1998 were more likely to be rural residents, materially poor, very heavy drinkers or pessimistic about their finances. These changes were unexplained by losses to follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: Sudden economic decline in late 1990s Russia was associated with a sharp, temporary fall in heavy drinking, and a gradual and persistent increase in home distilled spirit consumption, with the latter more common amongst disadvantaged groups. The correlation between heavy drinking and national mortality in lower educated men is interesting, but the timing of RLMS surveys late in the calendar year, and the absence of any correlation between drinking and the subsequent year's mortality, makes these data hard to interpret. Potential study limitations include difficulty in measuring multiple beverages consumed per occasion, and not specifically recording "surrogate" (non-beverage) alcohols

T-cell epitope polymorphisms of the Plasmodium falciparum circumsporozoite protein among field isolates from Sierra Leone: age-dependent haplotype distribution?

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In the context of the development of a successful malaria vaccine, understanding the polymorphisms exhibited by malaria antigens in natural parasite populations is crucial for proper vaccine design. Recent observations have indicated that sequence polymorphisms in the C-terminal T-cell epitopes of the <it>Plasmodium falciparum </it>circumsporozoite protein (Pf<it>csp</it>) are rather low and apparently stable in low endemic areas. This study sought to assess the pattern in a malaria endemic setting in Africa, using samples from Freetown, Sierra Leone.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Filter-paper blood samples were collected from subjects at a teaching hospital in Freetown during September–October 2006 and in April–May 2007. The C-terminal portion of the Pf<it>csp </it>gene spanning the Th2R and Th3R epitopes was amplified and directly sequenced; sequences were analysed with subject parameters and polymorphism patterns in Freetown were compared to that in other malaria endemic areas.</p> <p>Results and Discussion</p> <p>Overall, the genetic diversity in Freetown was high. From a total of 99 sequences, 42 haplotypes were identified with at least three accounting for 44.4% (44/99): the 3D7-type (19.2%), a novel type, P-01 (17.2%), and E12 (8.1%). Interestingly, all were unique to the African sub-region and there appeared to be predilection for certain haplotypes to distribute in certain age-groups: the 3D7 type was detected mainly in hospitalized children under 15 years of age, while the P-01 type was common in adult antenatal females (Pearson Chi-square = 48.750, degrees of freedom = 34, <it>P </it>= 0.049). In contrast, the single-haplotype predominance (proportion > 50%) pattern previously identified in Asia was not detected in Freetown.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Haplotype distribution of the T-cell epitopes of Pf<it>csp </it>in Freetown appeared to vary with age in the study population, and the polymorphism patterns were similar to that observed in neighbouring Gambia, but differed significantly at the sequence level from that observed in Asia. The findings further emphasize the role of local factors in generating polymorphisms in the T-cell epitopes of the <it>P. falciparum </it>circumsporozoite protein.</p

Melting and differentiation of early-formed asteroids: The perspective from high precision oxygen isotope studies

A number of distinct methodologies are available for determining the oxygen isotope composition of minerals and rocks, these include laser-assisted fluorination, secondary ion mass spectrometry (SIMS)and UV laser ablation. In this review we focus on laser-assisted fluorination, which currently achieves the highest levels of precision available for oxygen isotope analysis. In particular, we examine how results using this method have furthered our understanding of early-formed differentiated meteorites. Due to its rapid reaction times and low blank levels, laser-assisted fluorination has now largely superseded the conventional externally-heated Ni “bomb” technique for bulk analysis. Unlike UV laser ablation and SIMS analysis, laser-assisted fluorination is not capable of focused spot analysis. While laser fluorination is now a mature technology, further analytical improvements are possible via refinements to the construction of sample chambers, clean-up lines and the use of ultra-high resolution mass spectrometers. High-precision oxygen isotope analysis has proved to be a particularly powerful technique for investigating the formation and evolution of early-formed differentiated asteroids and has provided unique insights into the interrelationships between various groups of achondrites. A clear example of this is seenin samples that lie close to the terrestrial fractionation line (TFL). Based on the data from conventional oxygen isotope analysis, it was suggested that the main-group pallasites, the howardite eucrite diogenite suite (HEDs) and mesosiderites could all be derived from a single common parent body. However,high precision analysis demonstrates that main-group pallasites have a Δ17O composition that is fully resolvable from that of the HEDs and mesosiderites, indicating the involvement of at least two parent bodies. The range of Δ17O values exhibited by an achondrite group provides a useful means of assessing the extent to which their parent body underwent melting and isotopic homogenization. Oxygen isotope analysis can also highlight relationships between ungrouped achondrites and the more well-populated groups. A clear example of this is the proposed link between the evolved GRA 06128/9 meteorites and the brachinites. The evidence from oxygen isotopes, in conjunction with that from other techniques, indicates that we have samples from approximately 110 asteroidal parent bodies (∼60 irons, ∼35 achondrites and stony-iron, and ∼15 chondrites) in our global meteorite collection. However, compared to the likely size of the original protoplanetary asteroid population, this is an extremely low value. In addition, almost all of the differentiated samples (achondrites, stony-iron and irons) are derived from parent bodies that were highly disrupted early in their evolution. High-precision oxygen isotope analysis of achondrites provides some important insights into the origin of mass-independent variation in the early Solar System. In particular, the evidence from various primitive achondrite groups indicates that both the slope 1 (Y&R) and CCAM lines are of primordial significance. Δ17O differences between water ice and silicate-rich solids were probably the initial source of the slope 1 anomaly. These phases most likely acquired their isotopic composition as a result of UV photo-dissociation of CO that took place either in the early solar nebula or precursor giant molecular cloud. Such small-scale isotopic heterogeneities were propagated into larger-sized bodies, such as asteroids and planets, as a result of early Solar System processes, including dehydration, aqueous alteration,melting and collisional interactions

Bottom-Water Conditions in a Marine Basin after the Cretaceous–Paleogene Impact Event: Timing the Recovery of Oxygen Levels and Productivity

An ultra-high-resolution analysis of major and trace element contents from the Cretaceous–Paleogene boundary interval in the Caravaca section, southeast Spain, reveals a quick recovery of depositional conditions after the impact event. Enrichment/depletion profiles of redox sensitive elements indicate significant geochemical anomalies just within the boundary ejecta layer, supporting an instantaneous recovery –some 102 years– of pre-impact conditions in terms of oxygenation. Geochemical redox proxies point to oxygen levels comparable to those at the end of the Cretaceous shortly after impact, which is further evidenced by the contemporary macrobenthic colonization of opportunistic tracemakers. Recovery of the oxygen conditions was therefore several orders shorter than traditional proposals (104–105 years), suggesting a probable rapid recovery of deep-sea ecosystems at bottom and in intermediate waters.This research was supported by Projects CGL2009-07603, CGL2008-03007, CGL2012-33281 and CGL2012-32659 (Secretaría de Estado de I+D+I, Spain), Projects RNM-3715 and RNM 05212, and Research Groups RNM-178 and 0179 (Junta de Andalucía)

Determinants of self rated health and mortality in Russia – are they the same?

BACKGROUND: Research into Russia's health crisis during the 1990s includes studies of both mortality and self-rated health, assuming that the determinants of the two are the same. In this paper, we tested this assumption, using data from a single study on both outcomes and socioeconomic, lifestyle and psychological predictor variables. METHODS: We analysed data from 7 rounds (1994-2001) of the Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey, a panel study of a general population sample (11,482 adults aged over 18 living in households of 2 or more people). Self-rated health was measured on a 5 point scale and dichotomised by combining responses "very poor" and "poor" into poor health. Deaths (n = 782) during a mean follow up of 4.1 years were reported by another household member. Associations between several predictor variables and poor or very poor self-rated health and mortality were measured using logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards analysis respectively. RESULTS: Poor self-rated health was significantly associated with mortality; hazard ratios, compared with very good, good or average health, were 1.69 (1.36-2.10) in men and 1.74 (1.38-2.20) in women. Low education predicted both mortality and poor self-rated health, but income predicted subjective health more strongly. Smoking doubled the risk of death but was unrelated to subjective wellbeing. Frequent drinkers experienced greater mortality than occasional drinkers, despite reporting better health. In contrast, dissatisfaction with life predicted poor self-rated health, but not mortality. CONCLUSION: Differences between the predictors of subjective health and mortality, even though these outcomes were strongly associated, suggest that influences on subjective health are not restricted to serious disease. These findings also suggest the presence of risk factors for relatively sudden deaths in apparently well people, although further research is required. Meanwhile, caution is required when using studies of self-rated health in Russia to understand the determinants of mortality