Non-parametric probabilistic forecasting of academic performance in Spanish high school using an epidemiological modelling approach

Academic underachievement is a concern of paramount importance in Europe, and particularly in Spain, where around of 30% of the students in the last two courses in high school do not achieve the minimum knowledge academic requirement. In order to analyze this problem, we propose a mathematical model via a system of ordinary differential equations to study the dynamics of the academic performance in Spain. Our approach is based on the idea that both, good and bad study habits, are a mixture of personal decisions and influence of classmates. Moreover, in order to consider the uncertainty in the estimation of model parameters, a bootstrapping approach is employed. This technique permits to forecast model trends in the next few years using confidence intervals. Unfortunately, the obtained results do not suggest improvement in academic performance for the coming years.Cortés López, JC.; Sánchez Sánchez, A.; Santonja, FJ.; Villanueva Micó, RJ. (2013). Non-parametric probabilistic forecasting of academic performance in Spanish high school using an epidemiological modelling approach. Applied Mathematics and Computation. 221(15):648-661. doi:10.1016/j.amc.2013.06.070S6486612211

Protection of Spanish Ibex (Capra pyrenaica) against Bluetongue Virus Serotypes 1 and 8 in a Subclinical Experimental Infection

Many wild ruminants such as Spanish ibex (Capra pyrenaica) are susceptible to Bluetongue virus (BTV) infection, which causes disease mainly in domestic sheep and cattle. Outbreaks involving either BTV serotypes 1 (BTV-1) and 8 (BTV-8) are currently challenging Europe. Inclusion of wildlife vaccination among BTV control measures should be considered in certain species. In the present study, four out of fifteen seronegative Spanish ibexes were immunized with a single dose of inactivated vaccine against BTV-1, four against BTV-8 and seven ibexes were non vaccinated controls. Seven ibexes (four vaccinated and three controls) were inoculated with each BTV serotype. Antibody and IFN-gamma responses were evaluated until 28 days after inoculation (dpi). The vaccinated ibexes showed significant (P<0.05) neutralizing antibody levels after vaccination compared to non vaccinated ibexes. The non vaccinated ibexes remained seronegative until challenge and showed neutralizing antibodies from 7 dpi. BTV RNA was detected in the blood of non vaccinated ibexes from 2 to the end of the study (28 dpi) and in target tissue samples obtained at necropsy (8 and 28 dpi). BTV-1 was successfully isolated on cell culture from blood and target tissues of non vaccinated ibexes. Clinical signs were unapparent and no gross lesions were found at necropsy. Our results show for the first time that Spanish ibex is susceptible and asymptomatic to BTV infection and also that a single dose of vaccine prevents viraemia against BTV-1 and BTV-8 replication

Ultracool dwarfs in Gaia DR3

Aims. In this work we use the Gaia DR3 set of ultracool dwarf candidates and complement the Gaia spectrophotometry with additional photometry in order to characterise its global properties. This includes the inference of the distances, their locus in the Gaia colour-absolute magnitude diagram and the (biased through selection) luminosity function in the faint end of the Main Sequence. We study the overall changes in the Gaia RP spectra as a function of spectral type. We study the UCDs in binary systems, attempt to identify low-mass members of nearby young associations, star forming regions and clusters, and analyse their variability properties. Results. We detect 57 young, kinematically homogeneous groups some of which are identified as well known star forming regions, associations and clusters of different ages. We find that the primary members of 880 binary systems with a UCD belong mainly to the thin and thick disk components of the Milky Way. We identify 1109 variable UCDs using the variability tables in the Gaia archive, 728 of which belong to the star forming regions defined by HMAC. We define two groups of variable UCDs with extreme bright or faint outliers. Conclusions. The set of sources identified as UCDs in the Gaia archive contains a wealth of information that will require focused follow-up studies and observations. It will help to advance our understanding of the nature of the faint end of the Main Sequence and the stellar/substellar transition.Comment: Accepted by Astronomy and Astrophysics. 29 pages, 20 figures plus 3 appendice

Shift work and colorectal cancer risk in the MCC-Spain case-control study

Objectives Shift work that involves circadian disruption has been associated with a higher cancer risk. Most epidemiological studies to date have focused on breast cancer risk and evidence for other common tumors is limited. We evaluated the risk for colorectal cancer (CRC) in relation to shift work history in a population-based case-control study in Spain. Methods This analysis included 1626 incident CRC cases and 3378 randomly selected population controls of both sexes, enrolled in 11 regions of Spain. Sociodemographic and lifestyle information was assessed in face-to-face interviews. Shift work was assessed in detail throughout lifetime occupational history. We estimated the risk of colon and rectal cancer associated with rotating and permanent shift work (ever, cumulative duration, age of first exposure) using unconditional logistic regression analysis adjusting for potential confounders. Results Having ever performed rotating shift work (morning, evening and/or night) was associated with an increased risk for CRC [odds ratio (OR) 1.22, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 1.04-1.43], as compared to day workers. Having ever worked permanent night shifts (?3 nights/month) was not associated with CRC risk (OR 0.79, 95% CI 0.62-1.00). OR increased with increasing lifetime cumulative duration of rotating shift work (P-value for trend 0.005) and were highest among subjects in the top quartiles of exposure (3 rdquartile, 20-34 years, OR 1.38, 95%CI 1.06-1.81; 4 thquartile, ?35 years, OR 1.36, 95% CI 1.02-1.79). Conclusions These data suggest that rotating shift work may increase the risk of CRC especially after long-term exposures

The membrane-spanning 4-domains, subfamily A (MS4A) gene cluster contains a common variant associated with Alzheimer's disease

Background\ud In order to identify novel loci associated with Alzheimer's disease (AD), we conducted a genome-wide association study (GWAS) in the Spanish population.\ud \ud Methods\ud We genotyped 1,128 individuals using the Affymetrix Nsp I 250K chip. A sample of 327 sporadic AD patients and 801 controls with unknown cognitive status from the Spanish general population were included in our initial study. To increase the power of the study, we combined our results with those of four other public GWAS datasets by applying identical quality control filters and the same imputation methods, which were then analyzed with a global meta-GWAS. A replication sample with 2,200 sporadic AD patients and 2,301 controls was genotyped to confirm our GWAS findings.\ud \ud Results\ud Meta-analysis of our data and independent replication datasets allowed us to confirm a novel genome-wide significant association of AD with the membrane-spanning 4-domains subfamily A (MS4A) gene cluster (rs1562990, P = 4.40E-11, odds ratio = 0.88, 95% confidence interval 0.85 to 0.91, n = 10,181 cases and 14,341 controls).\ud \ud Conclusions\ud Our results underscore the importance of international efforts combining GWAS datasets to isolate genetic loci for complex diseases

Influence of the length of hospitalisation in post-discharge outcomes in patients with acute heart failure: Results of the LOHRCA study

Objective: To investigate the relationship between length of hospitalisation (LOH) and post-discharge outcomes in acute heart failure (AHF) patients and to ascertain whether there are different patterns according to department of initial hospitalisation. Methods: Consecutive AHF patients hospitalised in 41 Spanish centres were grouped based on the LOH (15 days). Outcomes were defined as 90-day post-discharge all-cause mortality, AHF readmissions, and the combination of both. Hazard ratios (HRs), adjusted by chronic conditions and severity of decompensation, were calculated for groups with LOH >6 days vs. LOH <6 days (reference), and stratified by hospitalisation in cardiology, internal medicine, geriatrics, or short-stay units. Results: We included 8563 patients (mean age: 80 (SD = 10) years, 55.5% women), with a median LOH of 7 days (IQR 4–11): 2934 (34.3%) had a LOH 15 days. The 90-day post-discharge mortality was 11.4%, readmission 32.2%, and combined endpoint 37.4%. Mortality was increased by 36.5% (95%CI = 13.0–64.9) when LOH was 11–15 days, and by 72.0% (95%CI = 42.6–107.5) when >15 days. Conversely, no differences were found in readmission risk, and the combined endpoint only increased 21.6% (95%CI = 8.4–36.4) for LOH >15 days. Stratified analysis by hospitalisation departments rendered similar post-discharge outcomes, with all exhibiting increased mortality for LOH >15 days and no significant increments in readmission risk. Conclusions: Short hospitalisations are not associated with worse outcomes. While post-discharge readmissions are not affected by LOH, mortality risk increases as the LOH lengthens. These findings were similar across hospitalisation departments

Natural History of MYH7-Related Dilated Cardiomyopathy

BACKGROUND: Variants in myosin heavy chain 7 (MYH7) are responsible for disease in 1% to 5% of patients with dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM); however, the clinical characteristics and natural history of MYH7-related DCM are poorly described. OBJECTIVE: We sought to determine the phenotype and prognosis of MYH7-related DCM. We also evaluated the influence of variant location on phenotypic expression. METHODS: We studied clinical data from 147 individuals with DCM-causing MYH7 variants (47.6% female; 35.6 ± 19.2 years) recruited from 29 international centers. RESULTS: At initial evaluation, 106 (72.1%) patients had DCM (left ventricular ejection fraction: 34.5% ± 11.7%). Median follow-up was 4.5 years (IQR: 1.7-8.0 years), and 23.7% of carriers who were initially phenotype-negative developed DCM. Phenotypic expression by 40 and 60 years was 46% and 88%, respectively, with 18 patients (16%) first diagnosed at <18 years of age. Thirty-six percent of patients with DCM met imaging criteria for LV noncompaction. During follow-up, 28% showed left ventricular reverse remodeling. Incidence of adverse cardiac events among patients with DCM at 5 years was 11.6%, with 5 (4.6%) deaths caused by end-stage heart failure (ESHF) and 5 patients (4.6%) requiring heart transplantation. The major ventricular arrhythmia rate was low (1.0% and 2.1% at 5 years in patients with DCM and in those with LVEF of ≤35%, respectively). ESHF and major ventricular arrhythmia were significantly lower compared with LMNA-related DCM and similar to DCM caused by TTN truncating variants. CONCLUSIONS: MYH7-related DCM is characterized by early age of onset, high phenotypic expression, low left ventricular reverse remodeling, and frequent progression to ESHF. Heart failure complications predominate over ventricular arrhythmias, which are rare

Characterization of a medium size Xe/TMA TPC instrumented with microbulk Micromegas, using low-energy gamma-rays

NEXT-MM is a general-purpose high pressure (10 bar, ~ 25 l active volume) Xenon-based TPC, read out in charge mode with an 0.8 cm × 0.8 cm-segmented 700 cm2 plane (1152 ch) of the latest microbulk-Micromegas technology. It has been recently commissioned at University of Zaragoza as part of the R&D of the NEXT 0νββ experiment, although the experiment's first stage is currently being built based on a SiPM/PMT-readout concept relying on electroluminescence. Around 2 million events were collected during the last months, stemming from the low energy γ-rays emitted by a 241Am source when interacting with the Xenon gas (Eγ = 26, 30, 59.5 keV). The localized nature of such events around atmospheric pressure, the long drift times, as well as the possibility to determine their production time from the associated α particle in coincidence, allow the extraction of primordial properties of the TPC filling gas, namely the drift velocity, diffusion and attachment coefficients. In this work we focus on the little explored combination of Xe and trimethylamine (TMA) for which, in particular, such properties are largely unknown. This gas mixture offers potential advantages over pure Xenon when aimed at Rare Event Searches, mainly due to its Penning characteristics, wave-length shifting properties and reduced diffusion, and it is being actively investigated by our collaboration. The chamber is currently operated at 2.7 bar, as an intermediate step towards the envisaged 10 bar. We report here its performance as well as a first implementation of the calibration procedures that have allowed the extension of the previously reported energy resolution to the whole readout plane (10.6% FWHM@30 keV)

SiPMs coated with TPB : coating protocol and characterization for NEXT

Silicon photomultipliers (SiPM) are the photon detectors chosen for the tracking readout in NEXT, a neutrinoless {\beta}{\beta} decay experiment which uses a high pressure gaseous xenon time projection chamber (TPC). The reconstruction of event track and topology in this gaseous detector is a key handle for background rejection. Among the commercially available sensors that can be used for tracking, SiPMs offer important advantages, mainly high gain, ruggedness, cost-effectiveness and radio-purity. Their main drawback, however, is their non sensitivity in the emission spectrum of the xenon scintillation (peak at 175 nm). This is overcome by coating these sensors with the organic wavelength shifter tetraphenyl butadienne (TPB). In this paper we describe the protocol developed for coating the SiPMs with TPB and the measurements performed for characterizing the coatings as well as the performance of the coated sensors in the UV-VUV range.Comment: Submitted to the Journal of Instrumentation on december 26th 201