Winter precipitation trends for two selected European regions over the last 500 years and their possible dynamical background

Summary: We analyse winter (DJF) precipitation over the last 500 years on trends using a spatially and temporally highly resolved gridded multi-proxy reconstruction over European land areas. The trends are detected applying trend matrices, and the significance is assessed with the Mann-Kendall-trend test. Results are presented for southwestern Norway and southern Spain/northern Morocco, two regions that show high reconstruction skill over the entire period. The absolute trend values found in the second part of the 20th century are unprecedented over the last 500 years in both regions. During the period 1715-1765, the precipitation trends were most pronounced in southwestern Norway as well as southern Spain/northern Morocco, with first a distinct negative trend followed by a positive countertrend of similar strength. Relating the precipitation time series to variations of the North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI) and the solar irradiance using running correlations revealed a couple of instationarities. Nevertheless, it appears that the NAO is responsible in both regions for most of the significant winter precipitation trends during the earlier centuries as well as during recent decades. Some of the significant winter precipitation trends over southwestern Norway and southern Spain/northern Morocco might be related to changes in the solar irradianc

Multiproxy summer and winter surface air temperature field reconstructions for southern South America covering the past centuries

We statistically reconstruct austral summer (winter) surface air temperature fields back to ad 900 (1706) using 22 (20) annually resolved predictors from natural and human archives from southern South America (SSA). This represents the first regional-scale climate field reconstruction for parts of the Southern Hemisphere at this high temporal resolution. We apply three different reconstruction techniques: multivariate principal component regression, composite plus scaling, and regularized expectation maximization. There is generally good agreement between the results of the three methods on interannual and decadal timescales. The field reconstructions allow us to describe differences and similarities in the temperature evolution of different sub-regions of SSA. The reconstructed SSA mean summer temperatures between 900 and 1350 are mostly above the 1901-1995 climatology. After 1350, we reconstruct a sharp transition to colder conditions, which last until approximately 1700. The summers in the eighteenth century are relatively warm with a subsequent cold relapse peaking around 1850. In the twentieth century, summer temperatures reach conditions similar to earlier warm periods. The winter temperatures in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries were mostly below the twentieth century average. The uncertainties of our reconstructions are generally largest in the eastern lowlands of SSA, where the coverage with proxy data is poorest. Verifications with independent summer temperature proxies and instrumental measurements suggest that the interannual and multi-decadal variations of SSA temperatures are well captured by our reconstructions. This new dataset can be used for data/model comparison and data assimilation as well as for detection and attribution studies at sub-continental scale

Reconstructing El Niño Southern Oscillation using data from ships' logbooks, 1815- 1854. Part I: Methodology and Evaluation

The meteorological information found within ships’ logbooks is a unique and fascinating source of data for historical climatology. This study uses wind observations from logbooks covering the period 1815 to 1854 to reconstruct an index of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) for boreal winter (DJF). Statistically-based reconstructions of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) are obtained using two methods: principal component regression (PCR) and composite-plus-scale (CPS). Calibration and validation are carried out over the modern period 1979–2014, assessing the relationship between re-gridded seasonal ERA-Interim reanalysis wind data and the instrumental SOI. The reconstruction skill of both the PCR and CPS methods is found to be high with reduction of error skill scores of 0.80 and 0.75, respectively. The relationships derived during the fitting period are then applied to the logbook wind data to reconstruct the historical SOI. We develop a new method to assess the sensitivity of the reconstructions to using a limited number of observations per season and find that the CPS method performs better than PCR with a limited number of observations. A difference in the distribution of wind force terms used by British and Dutch ships is found, and its impact on the reconstruction assessed. The logbook reconstructions agree well with a previous SOI reconstructed from Jakarta rain day counts, 1830–1850, adding robustness to our reconstructions. Comparisons to additional documentary and proxy data sources are provided in a companion paper

Data Descriptor: A global multiproxy database for temperature reconstructions of the Common Era

Reproducible climate reconstructions of the Common Era (1 CE to present) are key to placing industrial-era warming into the context of natural climatic variability. Here we present a community-sourced database of temperature-sensitive proxy records from the PAGES2k initiative. The database gathers 692 records from 648 locations, including all continental regions and major ocean basins. The records are from trees, ice, sediment, corals, speleothems, documentary evidence, and other archives. They range in length from 50 to 2000 years, with a median of 547 years, while temporal resolution ranges from biweekly to centennial. Nearly half of the proxy time series are significantly correlated with HadCRUT4.2 surface temperature over the period 1850-2014. Global temperature composites show a remarkable degree of coherence between high-and low-resolution archives, with broadly similar patterns across archive types, terrestrial versus marine locations, and screening criteria. The database is suited to investigations of global and regional temperature variability over the Common Era, and is shared in the Linked Paleo Data (LiPD) format, including serializations in Matlab, R and Python.(TABLE)Since the pioneering work of D'Arrigo and Jacoby1-3, as well as Mann et al. 4,5, temperature reconstructions of the Common Era have become a key component of climate assessments6-9. Such reconstructions depend strongly on the composition of the underlying network of climate proxies10, and it is therefore critical for the climate community to have access to a community-vetted, quality-controlled database of temperature-sensitive records stored in a self-describing format. The Past Global Changes (PAGES) 2k consortium, a self-organized, international group of experts, recently assembled such a database, and used it to reconstruct surface temperature over continental-scale regions11 (hereafter, ` PAGES2k-2013').This data descriptor presents version 2.0.0 of the PAGES2k proxy temperature database (Data Citation 1). It augments the PAGES2k-2013 collection of terrestrial records with marine records assembled by the Ocean2k working group at centennial12 and annual13 time scales. In addition to these previously published data compilations, this version includes substantially more records, extensive new metadata, and validation. Furthermore, the selection criteria for records included in this version are applied more uniformly and transparently across regions, resulting in a more cohesive data product.This data descriptor describes the contents of the database, the criteria for inclusion, and quantifies the relation of each record with instrumental temperature. In addition, the paleotemperature time series are summarized as composites to highlight the most salient decadal-to centennial-scale behaviour of the dataset and check mutual consistency between paleoclimate archives. We provide extensive Matlab code to probe the database-processing, filtering and aggregating it in various ways to investigate temperature variability over the Common Era. The unique approach to data stewardship and code-sharing employed here is designed to enable an unprecedented scale of investigation of the temperature history of the Common Era, by the scientific community and citizen-scientists alike

A complex structural variant at the KIT locus in cattle with the Pinzgauer spotting pattern.

A specific white spotting phenotype, termed finching or line-backed spotting, is known for all Pinzgauer cattle and occurs occasionally in Tux-Zillertaler cattle, two Austrian breeds. The so-called Pinzgauer spotting is inherited as an autosomal incompletely dominant trait. A genome-wide association study using 27 white spotted and 16 solid-coloured Tux-Zillertaler cattle, based on 777k SNP data, revealed a strong signal on chromosome 6 at the KIT locus. Haplotype analyses defined a critical interval of 122 kb downstream of the KIT coding region. Whole-genome sequencing of a Pinzgauer cattle and comparison to 338 control genomes revealed a complex structural variant consisting of a 9.4-kb deletion and an inversely inserted duplication of 1.5 kb fused to a 310-kb duplicated segment from chromosome 4. A diagnostic PCR was developed for straightforward genotyping of carriers for this structural variant (KIT ) and confirmed that the variant allele was present in all Pinzgauer and most of the white spotted Tux-Zillertaler cattle. In addition, we detected the variant in all Slovenian Cika, British Gloucester and Spanish Berrenda en negro cattle with similar spotting patterns. Interestingly, the KIT variant occurs in some white spotted animals of the Swiss breeds Evolèner and Eringer. The introgression of the KIT variant confirms admixture and the reported historical relationship of these short-headed breeds with Austrian Tux-Zillertaler and suggests a mutation event, occurring before breed formation

Mid- to late Holocene climate change- an overview

The last 6000 years are of particular interest to the understanding of the Earth System because the boundary conditions of the climate system did not change dramatically (in comparison to larger glacial–interglacial changes), and because abundant, detailed regional palaeoclimatic proxy records cover this period. We use selected proxy-based reconstructions of different climate variables, together with state-of-the-art time series of natural forcings (orbital variations, solar activity variations, large tropical volcanic eruptions, land cover and greenhouse gases), underpinned by results from General Circulation Models (GCMs) and Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs), to establish a comprehensive explanatory framework for climate changes from the Mid-Holocene (MH) to pre-industrial time. The redistribution of solar energy, due to orbital forcing on a millennial timescale, was the cause of a progressive southward shift of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) summer position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). This was accompanied by a pronounced weakening of the monsoon systems in Africa and Asia and increasing dryness and desertification on both continents. The associated summertime cooling of the NH, combined with changing temperature gradients in the world oceans, likely led to an increasing amplitude of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and, possibly, increasingly negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) indices up to the beginning of the last millennium. On decadal to multi-century timescales, a worldwide coincidence between solar irradiance minima, tropical volcanic eruptions and decadal to multi-century scale cooling events was not found. However, reconstructions show that widespread decadal to multi-century scale cooling events, accompanied by advances of mountain glaciers, occurred in the NH (e.g., in Scandinavia and the European Alps). This occurred namely during the Little Ice Age (LIA) between AD 1350 and 1850, when the lower summer insolation in the NH, due to orbital forcing, coincided with solar activity minima and several strong tropical volcanic eruptions. The role of orbital forcing in the NH cooling, the southward ITCZ shift and the desertification of the Sahara are supported by numerous model simulations. Other simulations have suggested that the fingerprint of solar activity variations should be strongest in the tropics, but there is also evidence that changes in the ocean heat transport took place during the LIA at high northern latitudes, with possible additional implications for climates of the Southern Hemisphere (SH)