Weblog patterns and human dynamics with decreasing interest

Weblog is the fourth way of network exchange after Email, BBS and MSN. Most bloggers begin to write blogs with great interest, and then their interests gradually achieve a balance with the passage of time. In order to describe the phenomenon that people's interest in something gradually decreases until it reaches a balance, we first propose the model that describes the attenuation of interest and reflects the fact that people's interest becomes more stable after a long time. We give a rigorous analysis on this model by non-homogeneous Poisson processes. Our analysis indicates that the interval distribution of arrival-time is a mixed distribution with exponential and power-law feature, that is, it is a power law with an exponential cutoff. Second, we collect blogs in ScienceNet.cn and carry on empirical studies on the interarrival time distribution. The empirical results agree well with the analytical result, obeying a special power law with the exponential cutoff, that is, a special kind of Gamma distribution. These empirical results verify the model, providing an evidence for a new class of phenomena in human dynamics. In human dynamics there are other distributions, besides power-law distributions. These findings demonstrate the variety of human behavior dynamics.Comment: 8 pages, 1 figure

Modeling bursts and heavy tails in human dynamics

Current models of human dynamics, used from risk assessment to communications, assume that human actions are randomly distributed in time and thus well approximated by Poisson processes. We provide direct evidence that for five human activity patterns the timing of individual human actions follow non-Poisson statistics, characterized by bursts of rapidly occurring events separated by long periods of inactivity. We show that the bursty nature of human behavior is a consequence of a decision based queuing process: when individuals execute tasks based on some perceived priority, the timing of the tasks will be heavy tailed, most tasks being rapidly executed, while a few experiencing very long waiting times. We discuss two queueing models that capture human activity. The first model assumes that there are no limitations on the number of tasks an individual can hadle at any time, predicting that the waiting time of the individual tasks follow a heavy tailed distribution with exponent alpha=3/2. The second model imposes limitations on the queue length, resulting in alpha=1. We provide empirical evidence supporting the relevance of these two models to human activity patterns. Finally, we discuss possible extension of the proposed queueing models and outline some future challenges in exploring the statistical mechanisms of human dynamics.Comment: RevTex, 19 pages, 8 figure

Individualism and stock price crash risk

Employing a sample of 26,473 firms across 42 countries from 1990 to 2013, we find that firms located in countries with higher individualism have higher stock price crash risk. Furthermore, individualism can be transmitted by foreign investors from overseas markets to influence local firms’ crash risk, and can exacerbate the impact of firm risk taking and earnings management on crash risk. Moreover, the positive relation between individualism and crash risk is amplified during the global financial crisis and attenuated by enhanced country-level financial information transparency and the adoption of International Financial Reporting Standards

Analyzing and Modeling Real-World Phenomena with Complex Networks: A Survey of Applications

The success of new scientific areas can be assessed by their potential for contributing to new theoretical approaches and in applications to real-world problems. Complex networks have fared extremely well in both of these aspects, with their sound theoretical basis developed over the years and with a variety of applications. In this survey, we analyze the applications of complex networks to real-world problems and data, with emphasis in representation, analysis and modeling, after an introduction to the main concepts and models. A diversity of phenomena are surveyed, which may be classified into no less than 22 areas, providing a clear indication of the impact of the field of complex networks.Comment: 103 pages, 3 figures and 7 tables. A working manuscript, suggestions are welcome

Do board secretaries influence management earnings forecasts?

The role of board secretaries is a unique institutional feature in China. Individuals in this senior executive role are responsible for coordinating information disclosure. We study the impact of board secretaries on management earnings forecasts and find that their legal expertise, accounting expertise and foreign experience help improve management earnings forecast quality. The quality of forecasts, as indicated by their occurrence, frequency, precision and accuracy, is also positively associated with the role duality (e.g. board director, CFO or other senior executive role) and equity holdings of board secretaries and negatively associated with their political connection. The quality of forecasts is found to increase the compensation of board secretaries. Finally, we show that the equity holding of board secretaries reduces litigation risks and increases corporate philanthropic giving

Centrality evolution of the charged-particle pseudorapidity density over a broad pseudorapidity range in Pb-Pb collisions at root s(NN)=2.76TeV

Peer reviewe

Multimodal intraoperative monitoring during surgery of spinal deformities in 217 patients

A prospective study was performed on 217 patients who received MIOM during corrective surgery of spinal deformities between March 2000 and December 2005. Aim is to determine the sensitivity and specificity of MIOM techniques used to monitor spinal cord and nerve root function during corrective spine surgery. MIOM is becoming an increasingly used method of monitoring function during corrective spine surgery. The combination of monitoring of ascending and descending pathways may provide more sensitive and specific results giving immediate feedback information regarding any neurological deficits during the operation. Intraoperative somatosensory spinal and cerebral evoked potentials combined with continuous EMG and motor evoked potentials of the spinal cord and muscles were evaluated and compared with postoperative clinical neurological changes. A total of 217 consecutive patients with spinal deformities of different aetiologies were monitored by means of MIOM during the surgical procedure. Out of which 201 patients presented true negative findings while one patient presented false negative and three patients presented false positive findings. Twelve patients presented true positive findings where neurological deficit after the operation was predicted. All neurological deficits in those 12 patients recovered completely. The sensitivity of MIOM applied during surgery of spinal deformities has been calculated of 92.3% and the specificity 98.5%. Based upon the results of this study MIOM is an effective method of monitoring the spinal cord and nerve root function during corrective surgery of spinal deformities and consequently improves postoperative results. The Wake-up test for surgical procedure of spinal deformities became obsolete in our institution

Asymmetric Information and Adverse Selection in Mauritian Slave Auctions

Canada and the CIRPÉE. We are indebted to Shirley Chenny for outstanding research assistance. We thank the staff at the Mauritius Archives for their help in locating the notarial acts and Benoit Aboumrad for his help in collating information. We have benefitted from extensive comments provided by two anonymous referees and the managing editor. We are also thankful for comments from and discussions with Moez Bennouri, Jean-Marc Bourgeon, Liam Brunt, C. Abstract Information asymmetry is a necessary prerequisite for testing adverse selection. This paper applies this sequence of tests to Mauritian slave auctions. Dynamic auction theory with private value highlights more aggressive bidding by uninformed bidders and higher prices when an informed participant is active. We conjecture that observable family links between buyer and seller entailed superior information and find a strong price premium when a related buyer purchased a slave, indicative of information asymmetry. We then test for adverse selection using sale motivation. Our results indicate large discounts on voluntary as compared to involuntary sales. Consistent with adverse selection, the market anticipated that predominantly lowproductivity slaves would be brought to the market in voluntary sales. JEL Classification: D 82, N 3