An Examination of the Variability of Migratory Timing Statistics Estimated From Catch and Effort Observations

The estimate of the mean arrival time based on catch or CPUE of fishes migrating into a fixed harvest area is a function of the number of days fished. Simulation studies using chinook salmon catch and effort data from the Yukon River delta, Alaska indicate that fishing effort concentrated at the tails of the migratory distribution which would tend to erroneously weigh the estimated mean arrival time in the direction of the sample, away from the true mean, is only a significant problem when the number of days open to fishing is small, covering less than 12% of the total duration of the migration. At sampling rates of the time domain greater than 12%, estimated mean arrival times are usually within 50% of the true mean. The variance of the ratio estimator and the mean square error (biased MSE) for the ratio estimator both allow for the construction of confidence limits for an estimated arrival time based on commercial catch and CPUE data. Arrival time estimates for migrations with large variances and with fewer than 12% of the time domain of the migration sampled have narrower 95% confidence intervals than the same methods produced for arrival time estimates for migrations of small variances. The variance of the ratio estimator is more conservative with sampling rates below 12%, however, it closely matches the biased MSE when sampling greater than 12% of the time domain of the migration. Once about a quarter of the migratory time span is fished, the confidence interval is greatly reduced. This is particularly true for migrations of small variance where the proportions of the population sampled tend to be quite concentrated about the central mass of the time distribution of abundance. Sampling from the average empirical proportion of catch yields a narrower confidence interval on the mean arrival time than does sampling from CPUE data. However, samples from annual daily proportions of CPUE with broader variances yield stronger confidence in arrival time estimates than do samples from migrations of average to small variances

Field Studies in the Lynnhaven River for Calibration of a Tidal Prism Water Quality Model

Under the Virginia Coastal Resources Management Program Grants (VCRMPG) for FY \u2793, a tidal prism water quality model has been developed for small coastal basins and tidal creeks. The rationale of the model development is provided and the model is described in detail in Kuo & Park ( 1994). The tidal prism model uses the concept of tidal flushing for physical transport processes. The nutrient and phytoplankton kinetics are mostly from the Chesapeake Bay three-dimensional water quality model (Cereo & Cole 1994), and the model also includes the sediment process model of the main Bay (DiToro & Fitzpatrick 1993). The model has twenty four water column and twenty seven sediment state variables (Table 1-1). The model, being a generic model applicable to any small coastal basins and tidal creeks, and operational on a personal computer, should provide a tool to state and local agencies for water quality management of Virginia\u27s small coastal basins

Informing the design of a national screening and treatment programme for chronic viral hepatitis in primary care: qualitative study of at-risk immigrant communities and healthcare professionals

n Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly credited. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise statedThis paper presents independent research funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) under the Programme Grants for Applied Research programme (RP-PG-1209-10038).

Bacteriophage- based tests for the detection of Mycobacterium tuberculosis in clinical specimens: a systematic review and meta- analysis

BACKGROUND: Sputum microscopy, the most important conventional test for tuberculosis, is specific in settings with high burden of tuberculosis and low prevalence of non tuberculous mycobacteria. However, the test lacks sensitivity. Although bacteriophage-based tests for tuberculosis have shown promising results, their overall accuracy has not been systematically evaluated. METHODS: We did a systematic review and meta-analysis of published studies to evaluate the accuracy of phage-based tests for the direct detection of M. tuberculosis in clinical specimens. To identify studies, we searched Medline, EMBASE, Web of science and BIOSIS, and contacted authors, experts and test manufacturers. Thirteen studies, all based on phage amplification method, met our inclusion criteria. Overall accuracy was evaluated using forest plots, summary receiver operating (SROC) curves, and subgroup analyses. RESULTS: The data suggest that phage-based assays have high specificity (range 0.83 to 1.00), but modest and variable sensitivity (range 0.21 to 0.88). The sensitivity ranged between 0.29 and 0.87 among smear-positive, and 0.13 to 0.78 among smear-negative specimens. The specificity ranged between 0.60 and 0.88 among smear-positive and 0.89 to 0.99 among smear-negative specimens. SROC analyses suggest that overall accuracy of phage-based assays is slightly higher than smear microscopy in direct head-to-head comparisons. CONCLUSION: Phage-based assays have high specificity but lower and variable sensitivity. Their performance characteristics are similar to sputum microscopy. Phage assays cannot replace conventional diagnostic tests such as microscopy and culture at this time. Further research is required to identify methods that can enhance the sensitivity of phage-based assays without compromising the high specificity

Increased sinusoidal flow is not the primary stimulus to liver regeneration

Background: Hemodynamic changes in the liver remnant following partial hepatectomy (PHx) have been suggested to be a primary stimulus in triggering liver regeneration. We hypothesized that it is the increased sinusoidal flow per se and hence the shear-stress stimulus on the endothelial surface within the liver remnant which is the main stimulus to regeneration. In order to test this hypothesis we wanted to increase the sinusoidal flow without performing a concomitant liver resection. Accordingly, we constructed an aorto-portal shunt to the left portal vein branch creating a standardized four-fold increase in flow to segments II, III and IV. The impact of this manipulation was studied in both an acute model (6 animals, 9 hours) using a global porcine cDNA microarray chip and in a chronic model observing weight and histological changes (7 animals, 3 weeks). Results: Gene expression profiling from the shunted segments does not suggest that increased sinusoidal flow per se results in activation of genes promoting mitosis. Hyperperfusion over three weeks results in the whole liver gaining a supranormal weight of 3.9% of the total body weight (versus the normal 2.5%). Contrary to our hypothesis, the weight gain was observed on the non-shunted side without an increase in sinusoidal flow. Conclusions: An isolated increase in sinusoidal flow does not have the same genetic, microscopic or macroscopic impact on the liver as that seen in the liver remnant after partial hepatectomy, indicating that increased sinusoidal flow may not be a sufficient stimulus in itself for the initiation of liver regeneration

Antimicrobial resistance among migrants in Europe: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND: Rates of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) are rising globally and there is concern that increased migration is contributing to the burden of antibiotic resistance in Europe. However, the effect of migration on the burden of AMR in Europe has not yet been comprehensively examined. Therefore, we did a systematic review and meta-analysis to identify and synthesise data for AMR carriage or infection in migrants to Europe to examine differences in patterns of AMR across migrant groups and in different settings. METHODS: For this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched MEDLINE, Embase, PubMed, and Scopus with no language restrictions from Jan 1, 2000, to Jan 18, 2017, for primary data from observational studies reporting antibacterial resistance in common bacterial pathogens among migrants to 21 European Union-15 and European Economic Area countries. To be eligible for inclusion, studies had to report data on carriage or infection with laboratory-confirmed antibiotic-resistant organisms in migrant populations. We extracted data from eligible studies and assessed quality using piloted, standardised forms. We did not examine drug resistance in tuberculosis and excluded articles solely reporting on this parameter. We also excluded articles in which migrant status was determined by ethnicity, country of birth of participants' parents, or was not defined, and articles in which data were not disaggregated by migrant status. Outcomes were carriage of or infection with antibiotic-resistant organisms. We used random-effects models to calculate the pooled prevalence of each outcome. The study protocol is registered with PROSPERO, number CRD42016043681. FINDINGS: We identified 2274 articles, of which 23 observational studies reporting on antibiotic resistance in 2319 migrants were included. The pooled prevalence of any AMR carriage or AMR infection in migrants was 25·4% (95% CI 19·1-31·8; I2 =98%), including meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (7·8%, 4·8-10·7; I2 =92%) and antibiotic-resistant Gram-negative bacteria (27·2%, 17·6-36·8; I2 =94%). The pooled prevalence of any AMR carriage or infection was higher in refugees and asylum seekers (33·0%, 18·3-47·6; I2 =98%) than in other migrant groups (6·6%, 1·8-11·3; I2 =92%). The pooled prevalence of antibiotic-resistant organisms was slightly higher in high-migrant community settings (33·1%, 11·1-55·1; I2 =96%) than in migrants in hospitals (24·3%, 16·1-32·6; I2 =98%). We did not find evidence of high rates of transmission of AMR from migrant to host populations. INTERPRETATION: Migrants are exposed to conditions favouring the emergence of drug resistance during transit and in host countries in Europe. Increased antibiotic resistance among refugees and asylum seekers and in high-migrant community settings (such as refugee camps and detention facilities) highlights the need for improved living conditions, access to health care, and initiatives to facilitate detection of and appropriate high-quality treatment for antibiotic-resistant infections during transit and in host countries. Protocols for the prevention and control of infection and for antibiotic surveillance need to be integrated in all aspects of health care, which should be accessible for all migrant groups, and should target determinants of AMR before, during, and after migration. FUNDING: UK National Institute for Health Research Imperial Biomedical Research Centre, Imperial College Healthcare Charity, the Wellcome Trust, and UK National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit in Healthcare-associated Infections and Antimictobial Resistance at Imperial College London

Systemic administration of IGF-I enhances healing in collagenous extracellular matrices: evaluation of loaded and unloaded ligaments

BACKGROUND: Insulin-like growth factor-I (IGF-I) plays a crucial role in wound healing and tissue repair. We tested the hypotheses that systemic administration of IGF-I, or growth hormone (GH), or both (GH+IGF-I) would improve healing in collagenous connective tissue, such as ligament. These hypotheses were examined in rats that were allowed unrestricted activity after injury and in animals that were subjected to hindlimb disuse. Male rats were assigned to three groups: ambulatory sham-control, ambulatory-healing, and hindlimb unloaded-healing. Ambulatory and hindlimb unloaded animals underwent surgical disruption of their knee medial collateral ligaments (MCLs), while sham surgeries were performed on control animals. Healing animals subcutaneously received systemic doses of either saline, GH, IGF-I, or GH+IGF-I. After 3 weeks, mechanical properties, cell and matrix morphology, and biochemical composition were examined in control and healing ligaments. RESULTS: Tissues from ambulatory animals receiving only saline had significantly greater strength than tissue from saline receiving hindlimb unloaded animals. Addition of IGF-I significantly improved maximum force and ultimate stress in tissues from both ambulatory and hindlimb unloaded animals with significant increases in matrix organization and type-I collagen expression. Addition of GH alone did not have a significant effect on either group, while addition of GH+IGF-I significantly improved force, stress, and modulus values in MCLs from hindlimb unloaded animals. Force, stress, and modulus values in tissues from hindlimb unloaded animals receiving IGF-I or GH+IGF-I exceeded (or were equivalent to) values in tissues from ambulatory animals receiving only saline with greatly improved structural organization and significantly increased type-I collagen expression. Furthermore, levels of IGF-receptor were significantly increased in tissues from hindlimb unloaded animals treated with IGF-I. CONCLUSION: These results support two of our hypotheses that systemic administration of IGF-I or GH+IGF-I improve healing in collagenous tissue. Systemic administration of IGF-I improves healing in collagenous extracellular matrices from loaded and unloaded tissues. Growth hormone alone did not result in any significant improvement contrary to our hypothesis, while GH + IGF-I produced remarkable improvement in hindlimb unloaded animals