Joint effects of storm surge and sea-level rise on US Coasts: new economic estimates of impacts, adaptation, and benefits of mitigation policy

Recent literature, the US Global Change Research Program’s National Climate Assessment, and recent events, such as Hurricane Sandy, highlight the need to take better account of both storm surge and sea-level rise (SLR) in assessing coastal risks of climate change. This study combines three models—a tropical cyclone simulation model; a storm surge model; and a model for economic impact and adaptation—to estimate the joint effects of storm surge and SLR for the US coast through 2100. The model is tested using multiple SLR scenarios, including those incorporating estimates of dynamic ice-sheet melting, two global greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation policy scenarios, and multiple general circulation model climate sensitivities. The results illustrate that a large area of coastal land and property is at risk of damage from storm surge today; that land area and economic value at risk expands over time as seas rise and as storms become more intense; that adaptation is a cost-effective response to this risk, but residual impacts remain after adaptation measures are in place; that incorporating site-specific episodic storm surge increases national damage estimates by a factor of two relative to SLR-only estimates, with greater impact on the East and Gulf coasts; and that mitigation of GHGs contributes to significant lessening of damages. For a mid-range climate-sensitivity scenario that incorporates dynamic ice sheet melting, the approach yields national estimates of the impacts of storm surge and SLR of $990 billion through 2100 (net of adaptation, cumulative undiscounted 2005$); GHG mitigation policy reduces the impacts of the mid-range climate-sensitivity estimates by $84 to$100 billion.United States. Environmental Protection Agency. Climate Change Division (Contract EP-D-09-054)United States. Environmental Protection Agency. Climate Change Division (Contract EP-BPA-12-H-0024

Feasibility of Harbor-wide Barrier Systems: Preliminary Analysis for Boston Harbor

The aim of this study is to provide the City of Boston with a preliminary assessment of the feasibilities and potential benefits, costs, and environmental impacts of three harborwide barrier configurations. While this study is not comprehensive, and there are many ways that further research could refine and extend its findings, those findings were clear enough to justify making recommendations for next steps. The authors recommend that the City continue to focus its climate resilience strategy for the next several decades on the shore-based multi-layered approach described in Climate Ready Boston. Shore-based solutions would provide flood management more quickly at a lower cost, offer several key advantages over a harbor-wide barrier, and provide more flexibility in adapting and responding to changing conditions, technological innovations, and new information about global sea level rise. These shore-based solutions would be needed in any case over the next few decades to manage coastal flooding during the design and construction period of a harbor-wide barrier if a decision was made to build one in the future

Gender differences in the use of cardiovascular interventions in HIV-positive persons; the D:A:D Study

Peer reviewe

Development and Validation of a Risk Score for Chronic Kidney Disease in HIV Infection Using Prospective Cohort Data from the D:A:D Study

Ristola M. on työryhmien DAD Study Grp ; Royal Free Hosp Clin Cohort ; INSIGHT Study Grp ; SMART Study Grp ; ESPRIT Study Grp jäsen.Background Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a major health issue for HIV-positive individuals, associated with increased morbidity and mortality. Development and implementation of a risk score model for CKD would allow comparison of the risks and benefits of adding potentially nephrotoxic antiretrovirals to a treatment regimen and would identify those at greatest risk of CKD. The aims of this study were to develop a simple, externally validated, and widely applicable long-term risk score model for CKD in HIV-positive individuals that can guide decision making in clinical practice. Methods and Findings A total of 17,954 HIV-positive individuals from the Data Collection on Adverse Events of Anti-HIV Drugs (D:A:D) study with >= 3 estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) values after 1 January 2004 were included. Baseline was defined as the first eGFR > 60 ml/min/1.73 m2 after 1 January 2004; individuals with exposure to tenofovir, atazanavir, atazanavir/ritonavir, lopinavir/ritonavir, other boosted protease inhibitors before baseline were excluded. CKD was defined as confirmed (>3 mo apart) eGFR In the D:A:D study, 641 individuals developed CKD during 103,185 person-years of follow-up (PYFU; incidence 6.2/1,000 PYFU, 95% CI 5.7-6.7; median follow-up 6.1 y, range 0.3-9.1 y). Older age, intravenous drug use, hepatitis C coinfection, lower baseline eGFR, female gender, lower CD4 count nadir, hypertension, diabetes, and cardiovascular disease (CVD) predicted CKD. The adjusted incidence rate ratios of these nine categorical variables were scaled and summed to create the risk score. The median risk score at baseline was -2 (interquartile range -4 to 2). There was a 1: 393 chance of developing CKD in the next 5 y in the low risk group (risk score = 5, 505 events), respectively. Number needed to harm (NNTH) at 5 y when starting unboosted atazanavir or lopinavir/ritonavir among those with a low risk score was 1,702 (95% CI 1,166-3,367); NNTH was 202 (95% CI 159-278) and 21 (95% CI 19-23), respectively, for those with a medium and high risk score. NNTH was 739 (95% CI 506-1462), 88 (95% CI 69-121), and 9 (95% CI 8-10) for those with a low, medium, and high risk score, respectively, starting tenofovir, atazanavir/ritonavir, or another boosted protease inhibitor. The Royal Free Hospital Clinic Cohort included 2,548 individuals, of whom 94 individuals developed CKD (3.7%) during 18,376 PYFU (median follow-up 7.4 y, range 0.3-12.7 y). Of 2,013 individuals included from the SMART/ESPRIT control arms, 32 individuals developed CKD (1.6%) during 8,452 PYFU (median follow-up 4.1 y, range 0.6-8.1 y). External validation showed that the risk score predicted well in these cohorts. Limitations of this study included limited data on race and no information on proteinuria. Conclusions Both traditional and HIV-related risk factors were predictive of CKD. These factors were used to develop a risk score for CKD in HIV infection, externally validated, that has direct clinical relevance for patients and clinicians to weigh the benefits of certain antiretrovirals against the risk of CKD and to identify those at greatest risk of CKD.Peer reviewe

The effect of soil: water ratios on the mineralisation of phenanthrene: LNAPL mixtures in soil.

Contamination of soil by polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons is frequently associated with non-aqueous-phase liquids. Measurement of the catabolic potential of a soil or determination of the biodegradable fraction of a contaminant can be done using a slurried soil respirometric system, This work assessed the impact of increasing the concentration of transformer oil and soil:water ratio on the microbial catabolism of [C-14]phenanthrene to (CO2)-C-14 by a phenanthrene-degrading inoculum. Slurrying (1:1, 1:2, 1:3 and 1:5 soil:water ratios) consistently resulted in statistically higher rates and extents of mineralisation than the non-slurried system (2:1 soil:water ratio: P<0.01). The maximum extents of mineralisation observed occurred in the 1:2-1:5 soil:water ratio microcosms irrespective of transformer oil concentration. Transformer oil concentrations investigated displayed no statistically significant effect on total mineralisation (P > 0,05). Soil slurries 1 :2 or greater, but less than 1 :5 (soil: water), are recommended for bioassay determinations of total contaminant bioavailability due to greater overall mineralisation and improved reproducibility. (C) 2003 Federation of European Microbiological Societies. Published by Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Nonexhaustive cyclodextrin-based extraction technique for the evaluation of PAH bioavailability.

Traditionally, soil extraction techniques have been concerned with the determination of ``total'' organic contaminant concentrations, following an ``exhaustive'' extraction. However, in light of the increasing body of knowledge relating to organic contaminant availability and aging, such methods have little relevance to the amount of contaminant that may pose an ecological risk i.e., the ``bioavailable'' portion. Less exhaustive techniques have therefore been the subject of more recent approaches in the hope that they may access the ``labile'' or bioavailable pool. The use of an aqueous-based extraction technique utilizing hydroxypropyl-beta-cyclodextrin (HPCD) is presented here for the extraction of PAHs from soil. The optimization of the method is described in terms of HPCD concentration, extraction time, and solution buffering. The procedure is then tested and validated for a range of C-14-labeled PAHs (phenanthrene, pyrene, and benzo[a]pyrene) added at a range of concentrations to a range of soil types. The amounts of soil-associated phenanthrene mineralized by catabolically active microorganisms were correlated with total residual phenanthrene concentrations (r(2) = 0.889; slope of best fit line = 0.763; intercept = -5.662; n = 24), dichloromethane (DCM)-extractable phenanthrene concentrations (r2 = 0.986; slope of best fit line = 0.648; intercept = 0.340; n = 24), butan-1-ol (BuOH)-extractable phenanthrene concentrations (r(2) = 0.957; slope of best fit line = 0.614; intercept = 0.544; n = 24), and HPCD-extractable phenanthrene concentrations (r(2) = 0.964; slope of best fit line = 0.997; intercept = 0.162; n = 24). Th us, in this study, the microbially bioavailable concentrations of soil-associated phenanthrene were best predicted using the optimized HPCD extraction technique. In contrast, the DCM Soxhlet extraction and the BuOH shake extraction both overestimated phenanthrene bioavailability by, on average, >60%.