Why didn't the Global Financial Crisis hit Latin America?

Latin America has a rich history of financial crises. However, it was relatively unharmed by the 2007-2009 Global Financial Crisis (GFC). This paper investigates why, and in particular the role of commodity prices and its institutional framework - in line with the fourth generation financial crisis model. We set up Early Warning Systems (EWS) for Argentina, Brazil and Mexico. These consist of an ordered logit model for currency crises for the period 1990-2007 with a dynamic factor model to deal with the large number of explanatory variables. We present forecasts for the period 2008-2009. We find that international indicators play an important role in explaining currency crises in Mexico, while banking indicators and commodities explain the currency crisis in Argentina and Brazil. Furthermore, debt and domestic economy indicators are relevant for Argentina and Mexico. Finally, we observe that currency crises in all three countries are related to institutional indicators. For none of the countries the Early Warning System would have issued an early warning for the GFC.Financial crises, Early Warning Systems, Latin America, dynamic factor models, ordered logit model,

Infrared Observations of Hot Gas and Cold Ice toward the Low Mass Protostar Elias 29

We have obtained the full 1-200 um spectrum of the low luminosity (36 Lsun) Class I protostar Elias 29 in the Rho Ophiuchi molecular cloud. It provides a unique opportunity to study the origin and evolution of interstellar ice and the interrelationship of interstellar ice and hot core gases around low mass protostars. We see abundant hot CO and H2O gas, as well as the absorption bands of CO, CO2, H2O and ``6.85 um'' ices. We compare the abundances and physical conditions of the gas and ices toward Elias 29 with the conditions around several well studied luminous, high mass protostars. The high gas temperature and gas/solid ratios resemble those of relatively evolved high mass objects (e.g. GL 2591). However, none of the ice band profiles shows evidence for significant thermal processing, and in this respect Elias 29 resembles the least evolved luminous protostars, such as NGC 7538 : IRS9. Thus we conclude that the heating of the envelope of the low mass object Elias 29 is qualitatively different from that of high mass protostars. This is possibly related to a different density gradient of the envelope or shielding of the ices in a circumstellar disk. This result is important for our understanding of the evolution of interstellar ices, and their relation to cometary ices.Comment: 18 pages and 14 figures, accepted for publication in A&

Influence of UV radiation from a massive YSO on the chemistry of its envelope

We have studied the influence of far ultraviolet (UV) radiation from a massive young stellar object (YSO) on the chemistry of its own envelope by extending the models of Doty et al. (2002) to include a central source of UV radiation. The models are applied to the massive star-forming region AFGL 2591 for different inner UV field strengths. Depth-dependent abundance profiles for several molecules are presented and discussed. We predict enhanced column densities for more than 30 species, especially radicals and ions. Comparison between observations and models is improved with a moderate UV field incident on the inner envelope, corresponding to an enhancement factor G0~10-100 at 200 AU from the star with an optical depth tau~15-17. Subtle differences are found compared with traditional models of Photon Dominated Regions (PDRs) because of the higher temperatures and higher gas-phase H2O abundance caused by evaporation of ices in the inner region. In particular, the CN/HCN ratio is not a sensitive tracer of the inner UV field, in contrast with the situation for normal PDRs: for low UV fields, the extra CN reacts with H2 in the inner dense and warm region and produces more HCN. It is found that the CH+ abundance is strongly enhanced and grows steadily with increasing UV field. High-J lines of molecules like CN and HCN are most sensitive to the inner dense region where UV radiation plays a role. Thus, even though the total column density affected by UV photons is small, comparison of high-J and low-J lines can selectively trace and distinguish the inner UV field from the outer one. In addition, future Herschel-HIFI observations of hydrides can sensitively probe the inner UV field.Comment: Accepted for publication in A&A. 13 pages, 10 figure

Astrochemistry of Sub-Millimeter Sources in Orion: Studying the Variations of Molecular Tracers with Changing Physical Conditions

Cornerstone molecules (CO, H_2CO, CH_3OH, HCN, HNC, CN, CS, SO) were observed toward seven sub-millimeter bright sources in the Orion molecular cloud in order to quantify the range of conditions for which individual molecular line tracers provide physical and chemical information. Five of the sources observed were protostellar, ranging in energetics from 1 - 500L_sun, while the other two sources were located at a shock front and within a photodissociation region (PDR). Statistical equilibrium calculations were used to deduce from the measured line strengths the physical conditions within each source and the abundance of each molecule. In all cases except the shock and the PDR, the abundance of CO with respect to H_2 appears significantly below (factor of ten) the general molecular cloud value of 10^-4. {Formaldehyde measurements were used to estimate a mean temperature and density for the gas in each source. Evidence was found for trends between the derived abundance of CO, H_2CO, CH_3OH, and CS and the energetics of the source, with hotter sources having higher abundances.} Determining whether this is due to a linear progression of abundance with temperature or sharp jumps at particular temperatures will require more detailed modeling. The observed methanol transitions require high temperatures (T>50 K), and thus energetic sources, within all but one of the observed protostellar sources. The same conclusion is obtained from observations of the CS 7-6 transition. Analysis of the HCN and HNC 4-3 transitions provides further support for high densities n> 10^7 cm^-3 in all the protostellar sources.Comment: 36 pages, 8 figures, Astronomy and Astrophysics in pres

Water destruction by X-rays in young stellar objects

We study the H2O chemistry in star-forming environments under the influence of a central X-ray source and a central far ultraviolet (FUV) radiation field. The gas-phase water chemistry is modeled as a function of time, hydrogen density and X-ray flux. To cover a wide range of physical environments, densities between n_H = 10^4-10^9 cm^-3 and temperatures between T = 10-1000 K are studied. Three different regimes are found: For T < 100 K, the water abundance is of order 10^-7-10^-6 and can be somewhat enhanced or reduced due to X-rays, depending on time and density. For 100 K < T < 250 K, H2O is reduced from initial x(H2O) ~ 10^-4 following ice evaporation to x(H2O) ~ 10^-6 for F_X > 10^-3 ergs s-1 cm^-2 (t = 10^4 yrs) and for F_X > 10^-4 ergs s^-1 cm^-2 (t = 10^5 yrs). At higher temperatures (T > 250 K) and hydrogen densities, water can persist with x(H2O) ~ 10^-4 even for high X-ray fluxes. The X-ray and FUV models are applied to envelopes around low-mass Class 0 and I young stellar objects (YSOs). Water is destroyed in both Class 0 and I envelopes on relatively short timescales (t ~ 5000 yrs) for realistic X-ray fluxes, although the effect is less prominent in Class 0 envelopes due to the higher X-ray absorbing densities there. FUV photons from the central source are not effective in destroying water. The average water abundance in Class I sources for L_X > 10^27 ergs s^-1 is predicted to be x(H2O) < 10^-6.Comment: 12 pages, 14 figures, Accepted for publication in A&

Magnetic stress as a driving force of structural distortions: the case of CrN

We show that the observed transition from rocksalt to orthorhombic P$_{nma}$ symmetry in CrN can be understood in terms of stress anisotropy. Using local spin density functional theory, we find that the imbalance between stress stored in spin-paired and spin-unpaired Cr nearest neighbors causes the rocksalt structure to be unstable against distortions and justifies the observed antiferromagnetic ordering. This stress has a purely magnetic origin, and may be important in any system where the coupling between spin ordering and structure is strong.Comment: 4 pages (two columns) 4 figure

Infrared spectroscopy of solid CO-CO2 mixtures and layers

The spectra of pure, mixed and layered CO and CO2 ices have been studied systematically under laboratory conditions using infrared spectroscopy. This work provides improved resolution spectra (0.5 cm-1) of the CO2 bending and asymmetric stretching mode, as well as the CO stretching mode, extending the existing Leiden database of laboratory spectra to match the spectral resolution reached by modern telescopes and to support the interpretation of the most recent data from Spitzer. It is shown that mixed and layered CO and CO2 ices exhibit very different spectral characteristics, which depend critically on thermal annealing and can be used to distinguish between mixed, layered and thermally annealed CO-CO2 ices. CO only affects the CO2 bending mode spectra in mixed ices below 50K under the current experimental conditions, where it exhibits a single asymmetric band profile in intimate mixtures. In all other ice morphologies the CO2 bending mode shows a double peaked profile, similar to that observed for pure solid CO2. Conversely, CO2 induces a blue-shift in the peak-position of the CO stretching vibration, to a maximum of 2142 cm-1 in mixed ices, and 2140-2146 cm-1 in layered ices. As such, the CO2 bending mode puts clear constraints on the ice morphology below 50K, whereas beyond this temperature the CO2 stretching vibration can distinguish between initially mixed and layered ices. This is illustrated for the low-mass YSO HH46, where the laboratory spectra are used to analyse the observed CO and CO2 band profiles and try to constrain the formation scenarios of CO2.Comment: Accepted in A&

Water and ammonia abundances in S140 with the Odin satellite

We have used the Odin satellite to obtain strip maps of the ground-state rotational transitions of ortho-water and ortho-ammonia, as well as CO(5-4) and 13CO(5-4) across the PDR, and H218O in the central position. A physi-chemical inhomogeneous PDR model was used to compute the temperature and abundance distributions for water, ammonia and CO. A multi-zone escape probability method then calculated the level populations and intensity distributions. These results are compared to a homogeneous model computed with an enhanced version of the RADEX code. H2O, NH3 and 13CO show emission from an extended PDR with a narrow line width of ~3 kms. Like CO, the water line profile is dominated by outflow emission, however, mainly in the red wing. The PDR model suggests that the water emission mainly arises from the surfaces of optically thick, high density clumps with n(H2)>10^6 cm^-3 and a clump water abundance, with respect to H2, of 5x10^-8. The mean water abundance in the PDR is 5x10^-9, and between ~2x10^-8 -- 2x10^-7 in the outflow derived from a simple two-level approximation. Ammonia is also observed in the extended clumpy PDR, likely from the same high density and warm clumps as water. The average ammonia abundance is about the same as for water: 4x10^-9 and 8x10^-9 given by the PDR model and RADEX, respectively. The similarity of water and ammonia PDR emission is also seen in the almost identical line profiles observed close to the bright rim. Around the central position, ammonia also shows some outflow emission although weaker than water in the red wing. Predictions of the H2O(110-101) and (111-000) antenna temperatures across the PDR are estimated with our PDR model for the forthcoming observations with the Herschel Space Observatory.Comment: 13 pages, 14 figures, 10 tables. Accepted for publication in Astronomy & Astrophysics 14 November 200

Development of an Optimization Model for the Community-Scale Biomass Power Plant (CSBPP) based on GAMS-BeWhere model framework in the Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC) region, THAILAND

Distributed energy generation enables grassroots people to access to clean energy and increase income to region community by participating and having ownership. In Thailand, the new community-power plant promotion scheme was launched in 2020 with the aim to raise the income equality and quality of life of local community. ❑ Biomass supply is one of the most important issues for continuous plant operation. Systematic supply chain management must be done considering availability and logistics, seasonality, quality, and cost. ❑ BeWhere is a techno-economic engineering model for renewable energy systems optimization framework which is used for a case study of CSBPP in EEC region, Thailand as illustrated in Fig.1. It identifies the localization, size and technology of the renewable energy system that should be applied in a specific renewable energy community-based power from the region for the region. ❑ The objective is to develop decision-support tool and a linear mixed integer programming model to determine the optimal geographic locations and sizes of CSBPP using the EEC region as a case study