Initiatives, Opportunities and Challenges in Shallow Groundwater Utilization: a Case Study from Debrekidane Watershed, Hawzien Woreda, Tigray Region, Northern Ethiopia

This paper assesses the opportunities and challenges of household irrigation practices that use groundwater as source in an area in Debrekidane watershed (45.1 km2), Tigray region, northern Ethiopia. It was done by evaluating the recharge and discharge potential of the aquifers, different water harvesting recharge structures and the impact of the intervention on the livelihood of the households. The recharge and discharge potential of the wells were determined from the pumping tests conducted on selected wells. The potential of different recharge structures were determined by evaluating size and nature of their construction. Impact of the intervention on livelihood of the household was assessed through developed semi-structure questionnaires, and by conducting focal group, individual, formal and informal discussions. There are about 360 hand dug wells in the study area getting recharged through the water harvesting structures and directly from rainfall. The numbers of beneficiaries are 326, out of which 5 % are women headed households. Nine per cent of the owners have double hand dug wells. The major opportunities identified in the area include planting variety of new trees, plants, and cultivating of highly valued crops, improvement of the households feeding habits and generation of regular income; and introduction and adoption of water lifting technologies. At the same time spacing and sliding of walls of the hand dug wells, simultaneous production of similar type of vegetable crops by many farmers, wastage of lands due to many wells and the waste debris material, maintenance of water lifting technology, water scarcity; and proper water utilization are some of the major challenges that are faced in the area. Though intervention has changed the situation from meager to significant production, the benefits can further be enhanced by overcoming the identified challenges

Global, regional, and national burden of chronic kidney disease, 1990–2017 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background Health system planning requires careful assessment of chronic kidney disease (CKD) epidemiology, but data for morbidity and mortality of this disease are scarce or non-existent in many countries. We estimated the global, regional, and national burden of CKD, as well as the burden of cardiovascular disease and gout attributable to impaired kidney function, for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017. We use the term CKD to refer to the morbidity and mortality that can be directly attributed to all stages of CKD, and we use the term impaired kidney function to refer to the additional risk of CKD from cardiovascular disease and gout. Methods The main data sources we used were published literature, vital registration systems, end-stage kidney disease registries, and household surveys. Estimates of CKD burden were produced using a Cause of Death Ensemble model and a Bayesian meta-regression analytical tool, and included incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability, mortality, years of life lost, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). A comparative risk assessment approach was used to estimate the proportion of cardiovascular diseases and gout burden attributable to impaired kidney function. Findings Globally, in 2017, 1·2 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1·2 to 1·3) people died from CKD. The global all-age mortality rate from CKD increased 41·5% (95% UI 35·2 to 46·5) between 1990 and 2017, although there was no significant change in the age-standardised mortality rate (2·8%, −1·5 to 6·3). In 2017, 697·5 million (95% UI 649·2 to 752·0) cases of all-stage CKD were recorded, for a global prevalence of 9·1% (8·5 to 9·8). The global all-age prevalence of CKD increased 29·3% (95% UI 26·4 to 32·6) since 1990, whereas the age-standardised prevalence remained stable (1·2%, −1·1 to 3·5). CKD resulted in 35·8 million (95% UI 33·7 to 38·0) DALYs in 2017, with diabetic nephropathy accounting for almost a third of DALYs. Most of the burden of CKD was concentrated in the three lowest quintiles of Socio-demographic Index (SDI). In several regions, particularly Oceania, sub-Saharan Africa, and Latin America, the burden of CKD was much higher than expected for the level of development, whereas the disease burden in western, eastern, and central sub-Saharan Africa, east Asia, south Asia, central and eastern Europe, Australasia, and western Europe was lower than expected. 1·4 million (95% UI 1·2 to 1·6) cardiovascular disease-related deaths and 25·3 million (22·2 to 28·9) cardiovascular disease DALYs were attributable to impaired kidney function. Interpretation Kidney disease has a major effect on global health, both as a direct cause of global morbidity and mortality and as an important risk factor for cardiovascular disease. CKD is largely preventable and treatable and deserves greater attention in global health policy decision making, particularly in locations with low and middle SDI

The global, regional, and national burden of cirrhosis by cause in 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background Cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases (collectively referred to as cirrhosis in this paper) are a major cause of morbidity and mortality globally, although the burden and underlying causes differ across locations and demographic groups. We report on results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 on the burden of cirrhosis and its trends since 1990, by cause, sex, and age, for 195 countries and territories. Methods We used data from vital registrations, vital registration samples, and verbal autopsies to estimate mortality. We modelled prevalence of total, compensated, and decompensated cirrhosis on the basis of hospital and claims data. Disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were calculated as the sum of years of life lost due to premature death and years lived with disability. Estimates are presented as numbers and age-standardised or age-specific rates per 100 000 population, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). All estimates are presented for five causes of cirrhosis: hepatitis B, hepatitis C, alcohol-related liver disease, non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), and other causes. We compared mortality, prevalence, and DALY estimates with those expected according to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) as a proxy for the development status of regions and countries. Findings In 2017, cirrhosis caused more than 1.32 million (95% UI 1.27-1.45) deaths (440000 [416 000-518 000; 33.3%] in females and 883 000 [838 000-967 000; 66.7%] in males) globally, compared with less than 899 000 (829 000-948 000) deaths in 1990. Deaths due to cirrhosis constituted 2.4% (2.3-2.6) of total deaths globally in 2017 compared with 1.9% (1.8-2.0) in 1990. Despite an increase in the number of deaths, the age-standardised death rate decreased from 21.0 (19.2-22.3) per 100 000 population in 1990 to 16.5 (15.8-18-1) per 100 000 population in 2017. Sub-Saharan Africa had the highest age-standardised death rate among GBD super-regions for all years of the study period (32.2 [25.8-38.6] deaths per 100 000 population in 2017), and the high-income super-region had the lowest (10.1 [9.8-10-5] deaths per 100 000 population in 2017). The age-standardised death rate decreased or remained constant from 1990 to 2017 in all GBD regions except eastern Europe and central Asia, where the age-standardised death rate increased, primarily due to increases in alcohol-related liver disease prevalence. At the national level, the age-standardised death rate of cirrhosis was lowest in Singapore in 2017 (3.7 [3.3-4.0] per 100 000 in 2017) and highest in Egypt in all years since 1990 (103.3 [64.4-133.4] per 100 000 in 2017). There were 10.6 million (10.3-10.9) prevalent cases of decompensated cirrhosis and 112 million (107-119) prevalent cases of compensated cirrhosis globally in 2017. There was a significant increase in age-standardised prevalence rate of decompensated cirrhosis between 1990 and 2017. Cirrhosis caused by NASH had a steady age-standardised death rate throughout the study period, whereas the other four causes showed declines in age-standardised death rate. The age-standardised prevalence of compensated and decompensated cirrhosis due to NASH increased more than for any other cause of cirrhosis (by 33.2% for compensated cirrhosis and 54.8% for decompensated cirrhosis) over the study period. From 1990 to 2017, the number of prevalent cases snore than doubled for compensated cirrhosis due to NASH and more than tripled for decompensated cirrhosis due to NASH. In 2017, age-standardised death and DALY rates were lower among countries and territories with higher SDI. Interpretation Cirrhosis imposes a substantial health burden on many countries and this burden has increased at the global level since 1990, partly due to population growth and ageing. Although the age-standardised death and DALY rates of cirrhosis decreased from 1990 to 2017, numbers of deaths and DALYs and the proportion of all global deaths due to cirrhosis increased. Despite the availability of effective interventions for the prevention and treatment of hepatitis B and C, they were still the main causes of cirrhosis burden worldwide, particularly in low-income countries. The impact of hepatitis B and C is expected to be attenuated and overtaken by that of NASH in the near future. Cost-effective interventions are required to continue the prevention and treatment of viral hepatitis, and to achieve early diagnosis and prevention of cirrhosis due to alcohol-related liver disease and NASH. Copyright (C) 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.Peer reviewe

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980–2017, and forecasts to 2030, for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017

Background Understanding the patterns of HIV/AIDS epidemics is crucial to tracking and monitoring the progress of prevention and control efforts in countries. We provide a comprehensive assessment of the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, mortality, and coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for 1980–2017 and forecast these estimates to 2030 for 195 countries and territories. Methods We determined a modelling strategy for each country on the basis of the availability and quality of data. For countries and territories with data from population-based seroprevalence surveys or antenatal care clinics, we estimated prevalence and incidence using an open-source version of the Estimation and Projection Package—a natural history model originally developed by the UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Modelling, and Projections. For countries with cause-specific vital registration data, we corrected data for garbage coding (ie, deaths coded to an intermediate, immediate, or poorly defined cause) and HIV misclassification. We developed a process of cohort incidence bias adjustment to use information on survival and deaths recorded in vital registration to back-calculate HIV incidence. For countries without any representative data on HIV, we produced incidence estimates by pulling information from observed bias in the geographical region. We used a re-coded version of the Spectrum model (a cohort component model that uses rates of disease progression and HIV mortality on and off ART) to produce age-sex-specific incidence, prevalence, and mortality, and treatment coverage results for all countries, and forecast these measures to 2030 using Spectrum with inputs that were extended on the basis of past trends in treatment scale-up and new infections. Findings Global HIV mortality peaked in 2006 with 1·95 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval 1·87–2·04) and has since decreased to 0·95 million deaths (0·91–1·01) in 2017. New cases of HIV globally peaked in 1999 (3·16 million, 2·79–3·67) and since then have gradually decreased to 1·94 million (1·63–2·29) in 2017. These trends, along with ART scale-up, have globally resulted in increased prevalence, with 36·8 million (34·8–39·2) people living with HIV in 2017. Prevalence of HIV was highest in southern sub-Saharan Africa in 2017, and countries in the region had ART coverage ranging from 65·7% in Lesotho to 85·7% in eSwatini. Our forecasts showed that 54 countries will meet the UNAIDS target of 81% ART coverage by 2020 and 12 countries are on track to meet 90% ART coverage by 2030. Forecasted results estimate that few countries will meet the UNAIDS 2020 and 2030 mortality and incidence targets. Interpretation Despite progress in reducing HIV-related mortality over the past decade, slow decreases in incidence, combined with the current context of stagnated funding for related interventions, mean that many countries are not on track to reach the 2020 and 2030 global targets for reduction in incidence and mortality. With a growing population of people living with HIV, it will continue to be a major threat to public health for years to come. The pace of progress needs to be hastened by continuing to expand access to ART and increasing investments in proven HIV prevention initiatives that can be scaled up to have population-level impact

Landslide susceptibility mapping in the Adwa Volcanic Mountain Plugs, Northern Ethiopia: a comparative analysis of frequency ratio and analytical hierarchy process methods

AbstractLandslides are a widespread occurrence in various regions across the globe, and Ethiopia serves as a typical example. The objective of this research was to develop and evaluate a landslide susceptibility map (LSM) using two different approaches: the frequency ratio (FR) and analytical hierarchy process (AHP). The suitability and effectiveness of both approaches were assessed for the specific study area. In the initial phase, a total of 175 past landslides, covering an area of 13.09 km2, were identified and mapped for further analysis. Eight causative factors, including elevation, slope steepness, slope aspect, lithology, distance from fault and stream, precipitation, and land use/land cover, were selected and mapped accordingly. Subsequently, a landslide susceptibility index (LSI) was calculated based on the relative influence of these factors on the recorded past landslides. The resulting LSMs were then categorized into five zones representing varying degrees of susceptibility: very low, low, moderate, high, and very high. For the LSM derived from the FR approach, the very high and high susceptibility zones accounted for 16.65 km2 (7.58%) and 79.96 km2 (36.4%) of the total area, respectively. Conversely, for the LSM derived from the AHP approach, these values were 21.9 km2 (9.99%) and 68.9 km2 (31.37%). Generally, both the FR and AHP approaches yielded comparable results. The LSMs were validated using the area under the curve (AUC) method. The FR model exhibited higher accuracy and prediction rates, with values of 0.807 and 80.7%, respectively, compared to the AHP model with values of 0.756 and 75.6%, respectively. These generated LSMs offer valuable insights for identifying and addressing the requirements of landslide hazard mitigation and adaptation

A LINEAR PROGRAMMING METHOD TO ENHANCE RESOURCE UTILIZATION CASE OF ETHIOPIAN APPAREL SECTOR

The Ethiopian industrial development strategy is characterized by export-led and labor intensive industrialization. The country is emerging as the most important investment destination in its apparel sector. Thought this sector is expected to generate more income from the export market, its export earnings remain trivial mainly due to the inefficient organizational resource utilization. One of the competent techniques that help companies to efficiently improve the use of their resources to increase their profit is linear programming. In apparel manufacturing firms, efficient use of materials such as fabrics and sewing threads and processing time at different stages of production as well as minimization of labor and materials cost are necessary to enhance their profitability. Cutting, sewing, and finishing operations deserve more attention for apparel process optimization. However, the issue of proper resource allocation remains an unsolved problem within the Ethiopian apparel industry. The aim of this research is to devise efficient resource utilization mechanism for Ethiopian apparel sector to improve their resource utilization and profitability, taking one of the garment factories engaged in the export market as a case study. Five types of products the company is currently producing, the amount of resources employed to produce each unit of the products, and the value of profit per unit from the sale of each products have been collected from the case company. The monthly availability of resources utilized and the monthly production volume of the five products have also been collected from the company. The data gathered was mathematically modeled using a linear programming technique, and solved using MS-Excel solver. The findings of the study depicts that all of the organizational resources are severely underutilized. This research proved that the resource utilization of the case company can be improved from 46.41% of the current resource utilization to 98.57%. This indicates that the new solution provides very significantly improvement in organizational resource utilization. At the same time, with the new solution, the total profit per month of the case company can be increased from 365,699 birr per month to 897,844 birr per month (i.e., with an increment of 145.5%). Finally, it is concluded that this remarkable profit increment of the company can certainly enhance its global competitiveness

Real-world treatment outcome of direct-acting antivirals and patient survival rates in chronic hepatitis C virus infection in Eritrea

Abstract Reliable real-world data on direct acting anti-retroviral (DAA) uptake and treatment outcomes are lacking for patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV) in sub-Saharan Africa. This study provides data on HCV DAA-based treatment outcomes, mortality, loss-to-follow up, and associated factors among patients in Eritrea. A multicenter retrospective observational cohort study was conducted in two tertiary hospitals in Asmara, Eritrea. A structured checklist was used to collect data from patient’s cards. Descriptive and inferential statistics used included means (± Standard deviation (SD), medians (Interquartile range (IQR), chi-squire (χ2), Kaplan–Meier estimates, and multivariate Cox proportional hazard models. A total of 238 patients with median age of 59 years (IQR 50–69 years) were enrolled in the study. Out of the 227 patients initiated on treatment, 125 patients had viral load measurements at 12 weeks after end of treatment (EOT) whereas 102 patients had no viral load measurements at 12 weeks EOT. Among the patients with HCV RNA data post-EOT 12, 116 (92.8%) had sustained viral response (SVR). The prevalence of death and loss-to-follow up (LTFU) were (7.5%, 95% CI 1.7–4.1) and 67 (28.1%, 95% CI 22.3–33.9) translating into an incidence of 1.1 (95% CI 0.8–1.5) per 10,000 person days. Independent predictors of LTFU included the enrollment year (2020: aHR = 2.2, 95% CI 1–4.7; p value = 0.04); Hospital (Hospital B: aHR = 2.2, 95% CI 1–4.7; p value = 0.03) and the FIB-4 score (FIB-Score < 1.45: aHR = 3.7, 95% CI 1.2–11.5; p value = 0.02). The SVR rates achieved in this cohort were high. However, high LTFU and high mortality driven largely by late presentation and suboptimal population screening/case finding, were uncovered. These challenges can be addressed by test-and-treat programs that simultaneously prioritize programmatic screening, decentralization of care, and better patient tracking in the HCV care cascade

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980-2017, and forecasts to 2030, for 195 countries and territories: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017

Background Understanding the patterns of HIV/AIDS epidemics is crucial to tracking and monitoring the progress of prevention and control efforts in countries. We provide a comprehensive assessment of the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, mortality, and coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for 1980-2017 and forecast these estimates to 2030 for 195 countries and territories. Methods We determined a modelling strategy for each country on the basis of the availability and quality of data. For countries and territories with data from population-based seroprevalence surveys or antenatal care clinics, we estimated prevalence and incidence using an open-source version of the Estimation and Projection Package - a natural history model originally developed by the UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Modelling, and Projections. For countries with cause-specific vital registration data, we corrected data for garbage coding (ie, deaths coded to an intermediate, immediate, or poorly defined cause) and HIV misclassification. We developed a process of cohort incidence bias adjustment to use information on survival and deaths recorded in vital registration to back-calculate HIV incidence. For countries without any representative data on HIV, we produced incidence estimates by pulling information from observed bias in the geographical region. We used a re-coded version of the Spectrum model (a cohort component model that uses rates of disease progression and HIV mortality on and off ART) to produce agesex- specific incidence, prevalence, and mortality, and treatment coverage results for all countries, and forecast these measures to 2030 using Spectrum with inputs that were extended on the basis of past trends in treatment scale-up and new infections. Findings Global HIV mortality peaked in 2006 with 1·95 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval 1·87-2·04) and has since decreased to 0·95 million deaths (0·91-1·01) in 2017. New cases of HIV globally peaked in 1999 (3·16 million, 2·79-3·67) and since then have gradually decreased to 1·94 million (1·63-2·29) in 2017. These trends, along with ART scale-up, have globally resulted in increased prevalence, with 36·8 million (34·8-39·2) people living with HIV in 2017. Prevalence of HIV was highest in southern sub-Saharan Africa in 2017, and countries in the region had ART coverage ranging from 65·7% in Lesotho to 85·7% in eSwatini. Our forecasts showed that 54 countries will meet the UNAIDS target of 81% ART coverage by 2020 and 12 countries are on track to meet 90% ART coverage by 2030. Forecasted results estimate that few countries will meet the UNAIDS 2020 and 2030 mortality and incidence targets. Interpretation Despite progress in reducing HIV-related mortality over the past decade, slow decreases in incidence, combined with the current context of stagnated funding for related interventions, mean that many countries are not on track to reach the 2020 and 2030 global targets for reduction in incidence and mortality. With a growing population of people living with HIV, it will continue to be a major threat to public health for years to come. The pace of progress needs to be hastened by continuing to expand access to ART and increasing investments in proven HIV prevention initiatives that can be scaled up to have population-level impact. © 2019 The Author(s)