185 research outputs found
Containing the spread of mumps on college campuses
College campuses are vulnerable to infectious disease outbreaks, and there is an urgent need to develop better strategies to mitigate their size and duration, particularly as educational institutions around the world adapt to in-person instruction during the COVID-19 pandemic. Towards addressing this need, we applied a stochastic compartmental model to quantify the impact of university-level responses to contain a mumps outbreak at Harvard University in 2016. We used our model to determine which containment interventions were most effective and study alternative scenarios without and with earlier interventions. This model allows for stochastic variation in small populations, missing or unobserved case data and changes in disease transmission rates post-intervention. The results suggest that control measures implemented by the University\u27s Health Services, including rapid isolation of suspected cases, were very effective at containing the outbreak. Without those measures, the outbreak could have been four times larger. More generally, we conclude that universities should apply (i) diagnostic protocols that address false negatives from molecular tests and (ii) strict quarantine policies to contain the spread of easily transmissible infectious diseases such as mumps among their students. This modelling approach could be applied to data from other outbreaks in college campuses and similar small population settings
Containing the Spread of Infectious Disease on College Campuses [preprint]
College campuses are highly vulnerable to infectious disease outbreaks, and there is a pressing need to develop better strategies to mitigate their size and duration, particularly as educational institutions around the world reopen to in-person instruction in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic. Towards addressing this need, we applied a stochastic compartmental model to quantify the impact of university-level responses to past mumps outbreaks in college campuses and used it to determine which control interventions are most effective. Mumps is a very relevant disease in such settings, given its airborne mode of transmission, high infectivity, and recurrence of outbreaks despite availability of a vaccine. Our model aims to simultaneously overcome three crucial issues: stochastic variation in small populations, missing or unobserved case data, and changes in disease transmission rates post-intervention. We tested the model and assessed various interventions using data from the 2014 and 2016 mumps outbreaks at Ohio State University and Harvard University, respectively. Our results suggest that in order to decrease infectious disease incidence on their campuses, universities should apply diagnostic protocols that address false negatives from molecular tests, stricter quarantine policies, and effective awareness campaigns among their students and staff. Our model can be applied to data from other outbreaks in college campuses and similar small-population settings
Combining genomics and epidemiology to track mumps virus transmission in the United States.
Unusually large outbreaks of mumps across the United States in 2016 and 2017 raised questions about the extent of mumps circulation and the relationship between these and prior outbreaks. We paired epidemiological data from public health investigations with analysis of mumps virus whole genome sequences from 201 infected individuals, focusing on Massachusetts university communities. Our analysis suggests continuous, undetected circulation of mumps locally and nationally, including multiple independent introductions into Massachusetts and into individual communities. Despite the presence of these multiple mumps virus lineages, the genomic data show that one lineage has dominated in the US since at least 2006. Widespread transmission was surprising given high vaccination rates, but we found no genetic evidence that variants arising during this outbreak contributed to vaccine escape. Viral genomic data allowed us to reconstruct mumps transmission links not evident from epidemiological data or standard single-gene surveillance efforts and also revealed connections between apparently unrelated mumps outbreaks
How does Inflation Depend Upon the Nature of Fluids Filling Up the Universe in Brane World Scenario
By constructing different parameters which are able to give us the
information about our universe during inflation,(specially at the start and the
end of the inflationary universe) a brief idea of brane world inflation is
given in this work. What will be the size of the universe at the end of
inflation,i.e.,how many times will it grow than today's size is been speculated
and analysed thereafter. Different kinds of fluids are taken to be the matter
inside the brane. It is observed that in the case of highly positive pressure
grower gas like polytropic,the size of the universe at the end of inflation is
comparitively smaller. Whereas for negative pressure creators (like chaplygin
gas) this size is much bigger. Except thse two cases, inflation has been
studied for barotropic fluid and linear redshift parametrization too. For them the size of the universe after
inflation is much more high. We also have seen that this size does not depend
upon the potential energy at the end of the inflation. On the contrary, there
is a high impact of the initial potential energy upon the size of inflation.Comment: 20 page
Ultrahigh-energy neutrino follow-up of Gravitational Wave events GW150914 and GW151226 with the Pierre Auger Observatory
On September 14, 2015 the Advanced LIGO detectors observed their first
gravitational-wave (GW) transient GW150914. This was followed by a second GW
event observed on December 26, 2015. Both events were inferred to have arisen
from the merger of black holes in binary systems. Such a system may emit
neutrinos if there are magnetic fields and disk debris remaining from the
formation of the two black holes. With the surface detector array of the Pierre
Auger Observatory we can search for neutrinos with energy above 100 PeV from
point-like sources across the sky with equatorial declination from about -65
deg. to +60 deg., and in particular from a fraction of the 90% confidence-level
(CL) inferred positions in the sky of GW150914 and GW151226. A targeted search
for highly-inclined extensive air showers, produced either by interactions of
downward-going neutrinos of all flavors in the atmosphere or by the decays of
tau leptons originating from tau-neutrino interactions in the Earth's crust
(Earth-skimming neutrinos), yielded no candidates in the Auger data collected
within s around or 1 day after the coordinated universal time (UTC)
of GW150914 and GW151226, as well as in the same search periods relative to the
UTC time of the GW candidate event LVT151012. From the non-observation we
constrain the amount of energy radiated in ultrahigh-energy neutrinos from such
remarkable events.Comment: Published version. Added journal reference and DOI. Added Report
Numbe
Multi-resolution anisotropy studies of ultrahigh-energy cosmic rays detected at the Pierre Auger Observatory
We report a multi-resolution search for anisotropies in the arrival
directions of cosmic rays detected at the Pierre Auger Observatory with local
zenith angles up to and energies in excess of 4 EeV ( eV). This search is conducted by measuring the angular power spectrum
and performing a needlet wavelet analysis in two independent energy ranges.
Both analyses are complementary since the angular power spectrum achieves a
better performance in identifying large-scale patterns while the needlet
wavelet analysis, considering the parameters used in this work, presents a
higher efficiency in detecting smaller-scale anisotropies, potentially
providing directional information on any observed anisotropies. No deviation
from isotropy is observed on any angular scale in the energy range between 4
and 8 EeV. Above 8 EeV, an indication for a dipole moment is captured; while no
other deviation from isotropy is observed for moments beyond the dipole one.
The corresponding -values obtained after accounting for searches blindly
performed at several angular scales, are in the case of
the angular power spectrum, and in the case of the needlet
analysis. While these results are consistent with previous reports making use
of the same data set, they provide extensions of the previous works through the
thorough scans of the angular scales.Comment: Published version. Added journal reference and DOI. Added Report
Numbe
Calibration of the Logarithmic-Periodic Dipole Antenna (LPDA) Radio Stations at the Pierre Auger Observatory using an Octocopter
An in-situ calibration of a logarithmic periodic dipole antenna with a
frequency coverage of 30 MHz to 80 MHz is performed. Such antennas are part of
a radio station system used for detection of cosmic ray induced air showers at
the Engineering Radio Array of the Pierre Auger Observatory, the so-called
Auger Engineering Radio Array (AERA). The directional and frequency
characteristics of the broadband antenna are investigated using a remotely
piloted aircraft (RPA) carrying a small transmitting antenna. The antenna
sensitivity is described by the vector effective length relating the measured
voltage with the electric-field components perpendicular to the incoming signal
direction. The horizontal and meridional components are determined with an
overall uncertainty of 7.4^{+0.9}_{-0.3} % and 10.3^{+2.8}_{-1.7} %
respectively. The measurement is used to correct a simulated response of the
frequency and directional response of the antenna. In addition, the influence
of the ground conductivity and permittivity on the antenna response is
simulated. Both have a negligible influence given the ground conditions
measured at the detector site. The overall uncertainties of the vector
effective length components result in an uncertainty of 8.8^{+2.1}_{-1.3} % in
the square root of the energy fluence for incoming signal directions with
zenith angles smaller than 60{\deg}.Comment: Published version. Updated online abstract only. Manuscript is
unchanged with respect to v2. 39 pages, 15 figures, 2 table
The state of the Martian climate
60°N was +2.0°C, relative to the 1981â2010 average value (Fig. 5.1). This marks a new high for the record. The average annual surface air temperature (SAT) anomaly for 2016 for land stations north of starting in 1900, and is a significant increase over the previous highest value of +1.2°C, which was observed in 2007, 2011, and 2015. Average global annual temperatures also showed record values in 2015 and 2016. Currently, the Arctic is warming at more than twice the rate of lower latitudes
Maintaining extensivity in evolutionary multiplex networks
In this paper, we explore the role of network topology on maintaining the extensive property of entropy. We study analytically and numerically how the topology contributes to maintaining extensivity of entropy in multiplex networks, i.e. networks of subnetworks (layers), by means of the sum of the positive Lyapunov exponents, HKS, a quantity related to entropy. We show that extensivity relies not only on the interplay between the coupling strengths of the dynamics associated to the intra (short-range) and inter (long-range) interactions, but also on the sum of the intra-degrees of the nodes of the layers. For the analytically treated networks of size N, among several other results, we show that if the sum of the intra-degrees (and the sum of inter-degrees) scales as N?+1, ? > 0, extensivity can be maintained if the intra-coupling (and the inter-coupling) strength scales as N??, when evolution is driven by the maximisation of HKS. We then verify our analytical results by performing numerical simulations in multiplex networks formed by electrically and chemically coupled neurons
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