Assessing Human Error Against a Benchmark of Perfection

An increasing number of domains are providing us with detailed trace data on human decisions in settings where we can evaluate the quality of these decisions via an algorithm. Motivated by this development, an emerging line of work has begun to consider whether we can characterize and predict the kinds of decisions where people are likely to make errors. To investigate what a general framework for human error prediction might look like, we focus on a model system with a rich history in the behavioral sciences: the decisions made by chess players as they select moves in a game. We carry out our analysis at a large scale, employing datasets with several million recorded games, and using chess tablebases to acquire a form of ground truth for a subset of chess positions that have been completely solved by computers but remain challenging even for the best players in the world. We organize our analysis around three categories of features that we argue are present in most settings where the analysis of human error is applicable: the skill of the decision-maker, the time available to make the decision, and the inherent difficulty of the decision. We identify rich structure in all three of these categories of features, and find strong evidence that in our domain, features describing the inherent difficulty of an instance are significantly more powerful than features based on skill or time.Comment: KDD 2016; 10 page

An empirical cognitive model of the development of shared understanding of requirements

It is well documented that customers and software development teams need to share and refine understanding of the requirements throughout the software development lifecycle. The development of this shared understand- ing is complex and error-prone however. Techniques and tools to support the development of a shared understanding of requirements (SUR) should be based on a clear conceptualization of the phenomenon, with a basis on relevant theory and analysis of observed practice. This study contributes to this with a detailed conceptualization of SUR development as sequence of group-level state transi- tions based on specializing the Team Mental Model construct. Furthermore it proposes a novel group-level cognitive model as the main result of an analysis of data collected from the observation of an Agile software development team over a period of several months. The initial high-level application of the model shows it has promise for providing new insights into supporting SUR development

A Match in Time Saves Nine: Deterministic Online Matching With Delays

We consider the problem of online Min-cost Perfect Matching with Delays (MPMD) introduced by Emek et al. (STOC 2016). In this problem, an even number of requests appear in a metric space at different times and the goal of an online algorithm is to match them in pairs. In contrast to traditional online matching problems, in MPMD all requests appear online and an algorithm can match any pair of requests, but such decision may be delayed (e.g., to find a better match). The cost is the sum of matching distances and the introduced delays. We present the first deterministic online algorithm for this problem. Its competitive ratio is $O(m^{\log_2 5.5})$ $= O(m^{2.46})$, where $2 m$ is the number of requests. This is polynomial in the number of metric space points if all requests are given at different points. In particular, the bound does not depend on other parameters of the metric, such as its aspect ratio. Unlike previous (randomized) solutions for the MPMD problem, our algorithm does not need to know the metric space in advance

Boltzmann and Fokker-Planck equations modelling the Elo rating system with learning effects

In this paper we propose and study a new kinetic rating model for a large number of players, which is motivated by the well-known Elo rating system. Each player is characterised by an intrinsic strength and a rating, which are both updated after each game. We state and analyse the respective Boltzmann type equation and derive the corresponding nonlinear, nonlocal Fokker-Planck equation. We investigate the existence of solutions to the Fokker-Planck equation and discuss their behaviour in the long time limit. Furthermore, we illustrate the dynamics of the Boltzmann and Fokker-Planck equation with various numerical experiments

Digestive and appendicular soft-parts, with behavioural implications, in a large Ordovician trilobite from the Fezouata Lagerstätte, Morocco

Trilobites were one of the most successful groups of marine arthropods during the Palaeozoic era, yet their soft-part anatomy is only known from a few exceptionally-preserved specimens found in a handful of localities from the Cambrian to the Devonian. This is because, even if the sclerotized appendages were not destroyed during early taphonomic stages, they are often overprinted by the three-dimensional, mineralised exoskeleton. Inferences about the ventral anatomy and behavioural activities of trilobites can also be derived from the ichnological record, which suggests that most Cruziana and Rusophycus trace fossils were possibly produced by the actions of trilobites. Three specimens of the asaphid trilobite Megistaspis (Ekeraspis) hammondi, have been discovered in the Lower Ordovician Fezouata Konservat-Lagerstätte of southern Morocco, preserving appendages and digestive tract. The digestive structures include a crop with digestive caeca, while the appendages display exopodal setae and slight heteropody (cephalic endopods larger and more spinose than thoracic and pygidial ones). The combination of these digestive structures and the heteropody has never been described together among trilobites, and the latter could assist in the understanding of the production of certain comb-like traces of the Cruziana rugosa group, which are extraordinarily abundant on the shallow marine shelves around Gondwana.This work has been supported by the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness, project number CGL2012- 39471/BTE.Peer reviewe

Development of a video-based education and process change intervention to improve advance cardiopulmonary resuscitation decision-making

Background: Advance cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) decision-making and escalation of care discussions are variable in routine clinical practice. We aimed to explore physician barriers to advance CPR decision-making in an inpatient hospital setting and develop a pragmatic intervention to support clinicians to undertake and document routine advance care planning discussions. Methods: Two focus groups, which involved eight consultants and ten junior doctors, were conducted following a review of the current literature. A subsequent iterative consensus process developed two intervention elements: (i) an updated ‘Goals of Patient Care’ (GOPC) form and process; (ii) an education video and resources for teaching advance CPR decision-making and communication. A multidisciplinary group of health professionals and policymakers with experience in systems development, education and research provided critical feedback. Results: Three key themes emerged from the focus groups and the literature, which identified a structure for the intervention: (i) knowing what to say; (ii) knowing how to say it; (iii) wanting to say it. The themes informed the development of a video to provide education about advance CPR decision-making framework, improving communication and contextualising relevant clinical issues. Critical feedback assisted in refining the video and further guided development and evolution of a medical GOPC approach to discussing and recording medical treatment and advance care plans. Conclusion: Through an iterative process of consultation and review, video-based education and an expanded GOPC form and approach were developed to address physician and systemic barriers to advance CPR decisionmaking and documentation. Implementation and evaluation across hospital settings is required to examine utility and determine effect on quality of care

Is there a standard procedure for assessing and providing assistive devices for people with neuro-disabling conditions in United Kingdom? A nation-wide survey

Background: Assistive devices are currently provided to people with neuro-disabling conditions to promote or maintain independence in activities of daily living. However, it is unclear whether assessment procedures performed by health care professionals to guide the provision of assistive devices are standardized.  Objective: To explore the assessment and service-delivery processes of assistive devices for people with multiple sclerosis, cerebrovascular disease and Parkinson's disease experiencing physical disability by health care professionals in the United Kingdom.  Methods: A survey was conducted among UK health care professionals working with people with neuro-disabling conditions. Descriptive and content analyses were used to code survey data.  Results: In total, 231 health care professionals completed the survey: 93 occupational therapists, 136 physiotherapists and 2 assistant practitioners. Less than half of the respondents (46%) reported use of local, national, or combined guidelines when assessing a service user's suitability or need for assistive devices. When guidelines were used, they were not consistent and not specifically for assistive devices. The respondents stated that when users were allocated small and portable assistive devices, they were supplied within four weeks. This period increased for large equipment, major home adaptions or if external specialist services and/or funding was needed.  Conclusions: Standardized operating procedures for assistive device provision are not being carried out within the UK. Variable access to assistive devices supplied by the state indicates inequity across regions. Future research should explore potential benefits of developing standardized assessment procedures for the provision of assistive devices and devise methods to reduce current variability in service delivery

Coregulator Control of Androgen Receptor Action by a Novel Nuclear Receptor-Binding Motif

The androgen receptor (AR) is a ligand-activated transcription factor that is essential for prostate cancer development. It is activated by androgens through its ligand-binding domain (LBD), which consists predominantly of 11 α-helices. Upon ligand binding, the last helix is reorganized to an agonist conformation termed activator function-2 (AF-2) for coactivator binding. Several coactivators bind to the AF-2 pocket through conserved LXXLL or FXXLF sequences to enhance the activity of the receptor. Recently, a small compound-binding surface adjacent to AF-2 has been identified as an allosteric modulator of the AF-2 activity and is termed binding function-3 (BF-3). However, the role of BF-3 in vivo is currently unknown, and little is understood about what proteins can bind to it. Here we demonstrate that a duplicated GARRPR motif at the N terminus of the cochaperone Bag-1L functions through the BF-3 pocket. These findings are supported by the fact that a selective BF-3 inhibitor or mutations within the BF-3 pocket abolish the interaction between the GARRPR motif(s) and the BF-3. Conversely, amino acid exchanges in the two GARRPR motifs of Bag-1L can impair the interaction between Bag-1L and AR without altering the ability of Bag-1L to bind to chromatin. Furthermore, the mutant Bag-1L increases androgen-dependent activation of a subset of AR targets in a genome-wide transcriptome analysis, demonstrating a repressive function of the GARRPR/BF-3 interaction. We have therefore identified GARRPR as a novel BF-3 regulatory sequence important for fine-tuning the activity of the AR

Identifying Hallmark Symptoms of Developmental Prosopagnosia for Non-Experts

Developmental prosopagnosia (DP) is characterised by a severe and relatively selective deficit in face recognition, in the absence of neurological injury. Because public and professional awareness of DP is low, many adults and children are not identified for formal testing. This may partly result from the lack of appropriate screening tools that can be used by non-experts in either professional or personal settings. To address this issue, the current study sought to (a) explore when DP can first be detected in oneself and another, and (b) identify a list of the condition’s everyday behavioural manifestations. Questionnaires and interviews were administered to large samples of adult DPs, their unaffected significant others, and parents of children with the condition; and data were analysed using inductive content analysis. It was found that DPs have limited insight into their difficulties, with most only achieving realisation in adulthood. Nevertheless, the DPs’ reflections on their childhood experiences, together with the parental responses, revealed specific indicators that can potentially be used to spot the condition in early childhood. These everyday hallmark symptoms may aid the detection of individuals who would benefit from objective testing, in oneself (in adults) or another person (for both adults and children)

Intergenerational persistence in health in developing countries : the penalty of gender inequality?

This paper is motivated to investigate the often neglected payoff to investments in the health of girls and women in terms of next generation outcomes. This paper investigates the intergenerational persistence of health across time and region as well as across the distribution of maternal health. It uses comparable microdata on as many as 2.24 million children born of about 0.6 million mothers in 38 developing countries in the 31 year period, 1970–2000. Mother's health is indicated by her height, BMI and anemia status. Child health is indicated by mortality risk and anthropometric failure. We find a positive relationship between maternal and child health across indicators and highlight non-linearities in these relationships. The results suggest that both contemporary and childhood health of the mother matter and that the benefits to the next generation are likely to be persistent. Averaging across the sample, persistence shows a considerable decline over time. Disaggregation shows that the decline is only significant in Latin America. Persistence has remained largely constant in Asia and has risen in Africa. The paper provides the first cross-country estimates of the intergenerational persistence in health and the first estimates of trends