From Numerical Probabilities to Linguistic Probabilities: A Theoretical Justification of Empirical Granules Used in Risk Management

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    In many risk management situations, instead of the exact probability values, specialists use a granule to which this probability belongs. Specifically, they use five granules, corresponding to thresholds 10%, 40%, 60%, and 90%. In this paper, we provide an explanation for such non-uniform granulation

    Interval and Symmetry Approaches to Uncertainty -- Pioneered by Wiener -- Helps Explain Many Seemingly Irrational Human Behaviors: A Case Study

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    It has been observed that in many cases, when we present a user with three selections od different price (and, correspondingly, different quality), then the user selects the middle selection. This empirical fact -- known as a compromise effect -- seems to contradicts common sense. Indeed, when a rational decision-maker selects one of the two alternatives, and then we add an additional option, then the user will either keep the previous selection or switch to a new option, but he/she will not select a previously rejected option. However, this is exactly what happens under the compromise effect. If we present the user with three options a \u3c a\u27 \u3c a\u27\u27, then, according to the compromise effect, the user will select the middle option a\u27, meaning that between a\u27 and a\u27\u27, the user will select a\u27. However, if instead we present the user with three options a\u27 \u3c a\u27\u27 \u3c a\u27\u27\u27, then, according to the same compromise effect, the use will select a previously rejected option a\u27\u27. In this paper, we show that this seemingly irrational behavior actually makes sense: it can be explained by an application of a symmetry approach, an approach whose application to uncertainty was pioneered by N. Wiener (together with interval approach to uncertainty)

    When Can We Simplify Data Processing: An Algorithmic Answer

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    In many real-life situations, we are interested in the values of physical quantities x1, ..., xn which are difficult (or even impossible) to measure directly. To estimate these values, we measure easier-to-measure quantities y1, ..., ym which are related to the desired quantities by a known relation, and use these measurement results to estimate xi. The corresponding data processing algorithms are sometimes very complex and time-consuming, so a natural question is: are simpler (and, thus, faster) algorithms possible for solving this data processing problem? In this paper, we show that by using the known Tarski-Seidenberg algorithm, we can check whether such a simplification exists and, if it exists, produce this simplification

    A Natural Simple Model of Scientists\u27 Strength Leads to Skew-Normal Distribution

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    In many practical situations, we have probability distributions which are close to normal but skewed. Several families of distributions were proposed to describe such phenomena. The most widely used is skew-normal distribution, whose probability density (pdf) is equal to the product of the pdf of a normal distribution and a cumulative distribution function (cdf) of another normal distribution. Out of other possible generalizations of normal distributions, the skew-normal ones were selected because of their computational efficiency, and not because they represent any real-life phenomena. Interestingly, it turns out that these distributions do represent a real-life phenomena: namely, in a natural simple model of scientists\u27 strength, this strength is skew-normally distributed. We also describe what happens if we consider more complex models of scientists\u27 strength

    Aproximación al Paciente con Fiebre

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    The materials in this submission guide clinical faculty as they organize and present two sequential learning sessions that teach pre-clerkship medical students the clinical workup of the acutely febrile patient. The first session is a small group learning activity with clinical faculty members and demonstration patients. Students are coached as they practice the steps of the focused physical examination of the acutely febrile patient. During the second session, students individually (or in pairs) work through the interview and perform the examination of a standardized patient presenting with acute fever. After this encounter, students write a SOAP note, receive feedback from the standardized patient (and from their peer observer, if present) and debrief in a group discussion with a faculty member. For the first session, the submitted materials include a preparatory physical exam worksheet and accompanying video. For the second session, the materials include a readiness assurance quiz, preparatory exam room guide and video, summary outline that students can use during the standardized patient encounter, a check sheet to guide peer observer feedback, and a standardized patient case blueprint. There is an optional Spanish-language translation of the patient interview for medical schools with a Spanish speaking patient population. These materials would be of interest to pre-clerkship clinical skills instructors who would like to teach a presentation-based, focused history and physical exam to their trainees. These materials were originally developed for the Medical Skills Course at the Texas Tech University Paul L. Foster School of Medicine (PLFSOM) in El Paso, Texas. The pre-clerkship curriculum at the PLFSOM is a fully integrated, clinical presentation-based curriculum. This curricular structure allows clinical skills instruction to be tightly integrated with basic science content. Therefore, it is important to situate these two sessions at a point in the curriculum when appropriate basic science content has been covered

    From 1-D to 2-D Fuzzy: A Proof that Interval-Valued and Complex-Valued Are the Only Distributive Options

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    While the usual 1-D fuzzy logic has many successful applications, in some practical cases, it is desirable to come up with a more subtle way of representing expert uncertainty. A natural idea is to add additional information, i.e., to go from 1-D to 2-D (and multi-D) fuzzy logic. At present, there are two main approaches to 2-D fuzzy logic: interval-valued and complex-valued. At first glance, it may seem that many other options are potentially possible. We show, however, that, under certain reasonable conditions, interval-valued and complex-valued are the only two possible options

    Rio que teme al mar

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    Río que teme al mar es una novela de formación, que narra el viaje iniciático de tres personajes: David, Francisco y Violeta, estudiantes universitarios que deciden dejar sus carreras para vivir y aprender a través de las experiencias que tendrán viajando como mochileros y artesanos vagabundos por cuatro de los países de Suramérica: Colombia, Ecuador, Perú y Bolivia. La novela plantea el viaje como una especie de rito de pasaje a la adultez, en el que los personajes deben abandonar la comodidad de su casa para emanciparse y hacerse verdaderos dueños de su vida, es decir, para ganarse el derecho de hacer lo que deseen con ella. La novela fue escrita entre los años 2009 y 2011, por Juan Pablo Román Alvarado, como proyecto de tesis para optar por el título de MFA in Creative Writing. La tesis incluye un prefacio crítico que habla del proceso de creación del proyecto, las influencias, los problemas y dificultades en su realización y algunos aspectos descriptivos.

    The Prospector, November 6, 2012

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    Headline: Youth Prepares for Election Day Result

    Salud y Saludos: The E-News of the College of Health Sciences

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    Monthly e-newsletter of the University of Texas at El Paso
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